For years I started threads at the Globe's Red Sox Front Burner Forum titled "A Realistic Look at ...." I hope I can continue the tradition here. Here's an updated look at the last one I posted on that site:
Regardless of what many Sox fans might believe, the Red Sox have a restricted budget. The sky is NOT the limit. Henry has allowed DD to go over the luxury tax limit, but I seriously doubt that will last going forward (at least by a significant amount). To be realistic, I think we should hold all suggested trades, signings and moves to the standard of not going over the limit by more than about $10M. With that in mind, here is how the luxury tax budget numbers look as of now: under contract (luxury tax not 2016 salary):
$187.8M Total
$30M Price, $22M H. Ramirez, $20.6M Porcello, $19M Sandoval, $16M Ortiz, $13.75M Pedroia, $13M Buchholz, $10.5M Kimbrell, $10.25M Castillo, $9M Uehara, $6.5M Young, $6.2M Craig, $3.6M Hannigan, $3.375M Tazawa, $2.6M Kelly, $1.25M Ross
(Note: Craig's contract does not count on the luxury tax budget, if he remains off the 40 man roster, so the luxury number is really $181.2M)
The 25 other players on the current 40 man roster (listed by seniority on the roster): Wright, Vazquez, Holt, JBJ, Workman (DL), Bogaerts, Brentz, Betts, Layne, Hembree, Barnes, Coyle, Swihart, Shaw, E Rodriguez, Marrero, N Ramirez, B Johnson, Owens, Jerez, Light, Hernandez, Carson, Elias, Rutledge, Cuevas
Add about $14M for these 25 players and the player payroll budget (luxury tax) equals about:
$195M
Now, add the $11M for player benefits and our Luxry Tax Total is...
$206M
That leaves us about $17M over the luxury tax limit without counting Craig's $6.2M payroll tax number. Looking at 2017, we will not be committed to paying Ortiz $16M, Uehara $9M and Tazawa $3.4M. We have options on Buchholz $13.5M and Hanigan $3.75M. That leaves us at about $29M to replace these players, not counting the expected big rise in the luxury tax limit. That may appear like a lot of money, but finding a replacement for Papi (3B, LF or 1B) will not come cheap. We will probably also need a solid number 2 SP'er and at least 2 quality RP'ers to replace Uehara and Tazawa.
Feel free to comment on my 25 and 40 man roster projections and anything else that has to do with the Red Sox.
Let's keep politics and personal attacks off this thread.
More to come. Thanks!
Sox4ever
I'm new here. I was on the Globe site after moving from Maine to Mexico City in 2004. I needed my Sox fix. I've lived in Sugar Land, Texas for the last 9 years and still need my daily "fix", so here I am. I look forward to some deep Sox discussions. I'm a poster who likes to support my opinions with facts and data, so bear with me, if numbers are not your thing. I will say, I'm not all about data. I played the wonderful game of baseball for over 2 decades before switching to softball as I aged. I realize winning baseball is often related to intangibles that no data can reveal. I'm a huge Sox fan. I used to live in Milwaukee and became a big Tommy Harper fan. My family moved to Maine when I was 12 years old. Soon afterwards Tommy Harper was traded to the Red Sox, and I switched to being a Sox fan. It hasn't been easy. Decades of frustration were followed by the extreme joy of 2004 and the championships that followed, however I moved to Mexico City in late 2004. I quickly found myself missing the water cooler Sox talk, so I joined the Boston Globe Sox Forum. Four years later, my wife, daughter and I moved to Sugar Land, Texas. After over 50,000 posts on that site, I was saddened to hear they were shutting down. So, here I am. I'm looking forward to some spirited debates and more championships to celebrate together.