moonslav59

I'm surprised you are excited by this. (LOL) I certainly would never bet on us being top 5 ever again. To be there, this year, we'd have had to spend about $50M more. (Keeping Devers would have added only about $20M more.)

Maybe. His history is full of ups and downs on spending, and last winter was a big up. The devers dump and Breggie opt out throws it all back in doubt, but none of us know how much this winter's budget will be.

Neither he was not nor Greene is now, unless you look at who might have the skills to be top 10. I've already answered this question. When Green pitches, which is as much or more than all but 72 SP'ers since 2024, he's looked like a top 10 pitcher by some stats and metrics. I would not call him top 10, right now, but he can be one, if he can go 30 starts. I felt pretty much the same as I did with Crochet, and I felt the package was steep but fair. I agree that a package of Duran, Clarke and 2 lower level prospects might be enough. I'd go as high as... Duran ($8M), Garcia & Sandlin or Abreu, Campbell ($7.5M AAV) & Sandlin I see Teel & Monty as better prospects than Garcia (maybe not Campbell) and Meidroth as better than Sandlin. How much is Duran or Abreu worth? (I don't agree with BTV on Duran.) I'd be fine with Duran & Sandlin for Lodolo.

These top 12 ranked teams by spending missed the playoffs in 2015: 1. NYM 6. TEX 7. HOU 8. ATL 11. AZ These made it: 25. CLE 23. MIL (The new Rays?) 22. CIN (The newer Rays? 17. DET 16. SEA 12. BOS 10. CHC 9. SDP 5. TOR 4. PHI 3. NYY 2. LAD While 4 of the top 5 made it, and 6 of the top 10 did, too, 3 from the middle tier and 3 from the bottom tier made the dance. Only 4 of the top 8 made it (50%). 8 of the bottom 22 made it (36.4%)

Believe it, baby! LOL. (Agreed- a bit unrealistic)

No doubt, the money is there to be spent with a big fat profit, no matter how much we spend. It's the way of the world.

Had we not dumped Devers, we'd have been top 9 or 10.

250 is not a little either, and it was more than Crochet had in his previous 4 seasons. Duran and Clarke seems close. Duran and PASSWORD, too.

250 IP is not real low. Only 72 SP'ers in MLB have more than Greene. I'm not arguing he's top 10, but the guy can pitch. Last year, we were wondering how good Crochet was based on low IP totals. Not all work out like he did, but Greene has proven more than he did at this point, vs last winter for Crochet. I'd think he'd get a similar haul, but I think Teel and Monty were not ranked all that highly, because they had the 3 top prospects ahead of them. They were better than any other 4-5's in MLB. My guess it takes Duran or Abreu plus Tolle or Early, but maybe we can avoid one of those two pitchers and give up 3 for 1. Or Duran & Garcia/ Abreu & Campbell (both have about $8-9M AAVs)

The extension cost is not a factor.

By the criteria of 250+ IP from 2024 to 2025: ERA- 46 Skenes 57 Skubal 59 Sale 62 Wheeler 63 Greene 9. Crochet 72 Greene is 10th in FIP- at 79. He's 8th in K/9 at 10.5 and K% at 29.2%. He has more IP in the last 2 years than Crochet had in his previous 4 seasons.

We had a few, for sure, but the Japanese player miss rate was much lower.

We'd have an OF of: LF: Campbell & Garcia (both RHB) Yoshida as emergency (LHB) CF: Rafaela (RHB) RF: Anthony (LHB) I think we would try hard to keep Abreu, who is a much need great RF defender. Give CIN the choice between Campbell and Garcia and add a prospect. What about Duran, Campbell & Garcia? Our OF would be: LF: Anthony LHB (Yoshida LHB) CF: Rafaela RF: Abreu (re-sign Refsnyder RHB)

We don't really "need" to trade Duran, either, and many other teams would pay to get him (or Abreu.) I think Cincy would prefer ML players over a pitching prospect like Clarke or Valera, but I'm not sure we are willing to part with Tolle or Early. Our best bet might to be giving up 2 OF'ers: Abreu or Duran and Garcia or Campbell. I doubt we'd give Abreu & Duran, but that might get a deal done. The only infielder we can afford is DHam or Grissom, and I doubt Cincy wants either one. (DHam may be appealing to some GMs.) We could throw in Sandlin, Guerrero, Kelly or Moran- maybe Duran ($8M) Garcia and Sandlin or Abreu, Campbell ($7.5M) and Sandlin. Is that enough for Cincy to say yes? If I were Brez, I'd say yes. Next offer, if no, would maybe be Duran, Mullins & Sandlin for Lodolo.

I don't disagree. Greene missed about 6 weeks in 2022 (24 GS) and 2023 (22 GS.) He missed about 5 weeks in '24 (26 GS.) All three seasons were late season injuries where he came back before the end. He missed about 9 weeks, this year (19 GS) and came back for a last 8 GS totals of 2.81 ERA and 3.05 FIP (59K in 48 IP) Just to point out, there were worries about Crochet, too.

USA Today has the Domers at #13. If we win out, we should be top 12 and in the playoffs. I doubt we go far, but getting is nice. USA Today top 15 1. Ohio St (Penn St, @PUR, UCLA, Rutgers, @MI -0 ranked teams) 2. Indiana (UCLA, @MD, @Penn St, WI, @ PUR- 0 ranked) 3. TX A&M (@LSU, @MO, SC, Stan, @TX- 3 ranked teams) 4. Alabama (@SC, LSU, OKL, E Illi, @AUB- 2 ranked) 5. Georgia (@FLA, @MS St, TX, Charl, @GA Tech- 2 ranked) 6. Oregon (WI, @IA, MN, USC, @WASH- 1 ranked) 7. GA Tech (Syr, @NC St, BC, PIT, @GA- 1 ranked team) 8. Ole Miss (@OKL, SC, Citadel, FLA @ MS St- 1 ranked) 9. Miami (Stan, @SMU, Syr, NC St, @VA Tech, @PIT) 10. BYU (IA St, @TX Tech, TCU, at CIN, UCF- 2 ranked teams) 11. Oklahoma (Ole Miss, @TN, @AL, MO, LSU- 5 ranked teams!) 12. Vanderbilt (MO, @TX, Aub, KY, @TN- 3 ranked teams) 13. Notre Dame (@BC, Navy, @PIT, Syr, Stan) 14. Missouri 15. Virginia

I think we need a big bat or two as well as another ace, and I'm not against getting Skubal, but Detroit went farther than we did, this year and will not want prospects for Skubal. What worries me about Skubal is the one year of control. (Est arb of about $20M) I don't want to narrow our window from 3-5 years to one. I'm not sure the DET & BOS goals match up. Teams like PIT, MIA and MIN do.. I think we will be looking at Keller, Alcantara, Lopez or Ryan and if rumors about Cincy are true maybe Lodolo or Greene. Maybe we look to sign Merrill Kelly, Nick Martinez, Bassitt or _____?

I don't, even if it means dumping Yoshida. He does play 1B/3B, but Yoshida is a better batter. I'd trade him and $12-14M for Contreras.

Agree on no Rafaela. I'm not sure how highly Cincy or anyone values Campbell, but he might be more highly values than Garcia. I'm not sure Cincy wants a pitcher back, but the guys you listed would certainly be of value. For Greene, I might offer: Abreu or Duran Campbell or Garcia Harrison, Dobbins or Perales. (Valera or Clarke?)

Gray still has a lot of value. We may get Arenado for Yoshida plus cash. Maybe W Contreras for Casas and Yoshida. Not Gray, unless we give some serious talent with Masa.

Skenes is still prearb. It does make sense to assume they will hold off on trading their only crowd drawing player. Of course, blow anyone away with an offer and they will listen, but can we afford a massive overpay to gain at the top of the rotation, only to open 3-4 big holes elsewhere? Now, the los cost of Skenes might afford us the chance to fill the two holes we already have plus the couple new ones opened up with this trade via free agency, but filling 4-5 holes, not 2-3 with $45M is a lot harder.

We might be one of the few teams in MLB that can offer two OF'ers... LHB: Duran or Abreu RHB: Garcia or Campbell (Rafaela is unlikely to be offered.) We can trade two and still have a solid 4 man OF plus Yoshida and maybe a returning Refsnyder. LF: Anthony or Duran CF: Rafaela RF: Abreu or Anthony 4th: Campbell or Garcia 5th: Yoshida and or Refsnyder

Our success with American players has been hit or miss, too. Success: Uehara, Okajima, Tazawa, Nomo Meh: Dice-K, Ohka Bust: Yoshida (Uwasawa was a miLB signing)

If Casas is thought to be ready, he should be considered as the DH with adding a 1B a higher need. Plus, this winter has a lot of 1Bmen on the open market.... all better on D than the fragile Casas.

While I do think PIT would highly value the prearb Abreu, he'd have to be the third best player in the package. Duran at just $8M is too expensive for PIT. If Abreu is part of the deal, it would have to start with Anthony and then Tolle or Early. 2 from Mayer, Tolle and Early plus Abreu would not be enough. Now, if we took back Brian Reynolds, maybe PIT starts listening to lower headliners. Include Keller, too and PIT would be saving over half their budget ($31M our of $60M projected.) I don't want Reynolds, even as our LF'er or DH, but getting 4 years of Skenes gets me interested. Would PIT take Duran, Campbell, Mayer, Tolle or Early for Skenes & Reynolds? (Sub Abreu for Duran, if they insist?) I'd say they would think about it and say no. They'd want Tolle & Early and maybe not Campbell but Garcia or Sandlin, instead could be offered. I'm not sure what adding Keller to the deal would mean, but he is no straight salary dump addition to the deal. Maybe... Abreu/Duran, Tolle, Early, Mayer, Campbell & Sandlin for Skenes, Keller & Reynolds. I know- I know these mega deals are head-spinners and highly unlikely, but helping PIT dump salary could be a way to lessen the return package hit on our roster and future.