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Everything posted by moonslav59
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Video: Is Alex Cora On the Hot Seat? Should He Be?
moonslav59 replied to Brandon Glick's topic in Talk Sox Front Page News
The funny thing is, if Brez gets his way, assuming he wants Cora out, Cora might end up replacing Brez in the FO. -
Video: Is Alex Cora On the Hot Seat? Should He Be?
moonslav59 replied to Brandon Glick's topic in Talk Sox Front Page News
As we've all seen and complained about for a half decade: "upper payrolls" do not equate to upper rosters. We've complained for years about all the bad signings and poor roster construction, then blame Cora for not making awful teams win. I'm not arguing that Cora could do no better. I do think he makes mistakes and has some serious flaws, but the teams he was handed from 2020-2024 were jokes, even the 2021 team was not good, on paper (in March.) -
I hope you good ole eye test was able to determine Jeter was a statue, while other made dozens upon dozen more plays on reachable hit balls towards the SS position. I'm also sure you watched every game Jeter played, as well as every game other SSs made, so you could, in your brilliant mind, determine just how much the difference was between Jeter and other SSs.
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Yes. It rarely happens. You often see a home team bias in the assignment of errors, and one of the biggest flaws in error assignment is when a defender misjudges a ball and never touches it, so it's a hit. I understand that the sun or lights in a defenders eyes may not be fully his fault, but other defenders make those plays easily, but fldg% will never capture that difference between player A and B. Also, a throwing error that not only changes an out to a hit but allows the runner to get to 2B counts the same as a bobbled ball where the runner stays on 1B. There are flaws in every stat and metric. I think we all agree on that. With modern technology, such as launch angles, speeds of balls hit and precise measurements on how far away a defender was from the ball, when hit, and how long the ball was up in the air makes for an improved determination on whether the ball was fieldable or not. In the old days, it was 90-100% speculation that was often decided by a biased observer. Range Factor became a meaningful stat, a while back, and that had serious flaws, too. Some SSs on certain teams with pitchers who K'd more batter or allowed more Fly Balls than Grounders were penalized for not making as many plays that were actually not ever there for them to make. That's not the case, anymore, and I probably shouldn't have made the Total Chances Case, when I brought up Jeter bs Escobar, but it is very clear some players make way more plays on playable balls than others. We can see that, ourselves, without stats or data, too.
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Thanks for the thoughtful reply. I get your point, and do think making less errors is very important, and I was to stress that errors and error rate is factored into metrics. I'm not sure if you were saying "effort" has something to do with range differentials, and I guess it might in some cases, but range is part physical attribute, instincts (getting good jumps, positioning correctly and knowing by watching the pitch location, where the batter is likely to hit the ball to you: as in to his left or right and maybe leaning that way) and skill. You really don't think getting to 140 more balls but making 5, 10 or even 20 more errors is not worth it? I don't understand the "days of Jeter not wanting to make an error? or that those "days are over." Jeter didn't get to many balls hit his way, because he couldn't, not because he chose not to, just as some SSs, today cannot get to many balls others do get to and finish the play. You mention changing conditions, but aren't some errors given based on easier plays vs tougher ones? In both cases, we expect the conditions even out, just as we do for BA, OBP, SLG, ERA and other traditional data. Also, when we see certain players have the same data, year after year, even when changing teams, parks and other factors, I think it's safe to say the numbers are just as accurate as flg % and BA (which also depends on the assignment of an error or not, to a small degree, and the luck or unluck of conditions, such as parks, opposing pitchers and defenses,,,,) On this, "All the hypothetical what-if components of metrics render them useless for evaluating players. " 1. You do know the assignment of errors or no errors is subjective, right? Also, it's not hypothetical to see and prove that some SSs make way more plays than others. They know how hard a ball is hit and how far away from the defender it is. They can then see who gets to it and who doesn't. That part is not guessing or hypothetical. The formulation of things like WAR do factor in the likelihood that a play made or not made affects the chances of a run being scored, but what makes you think that is any more faulty than the scorekeeper calling some obvious errors a hit and vice versa? You say most fans don't know the formula, and you are right, but do you? If not, how can you be so hypercritical of something you don't understand. If you heard a simple explanation on how they compile the data, you may see it's not so hokus-pocus as you think. Maybe not. Simply put, not all great range defenders are "flashy," and even if some are, if they make 140 more plays that the steady Jeter types, while also making 10-20 more errors, some because they are throwing off balance after making a spectacular stop, it's a joke to say the steady Jeter type is better. It's not even close. Stopping 140 base hits in exchange for making 10-20 errors, that would have been hits, anyway with the Jeter types is no comparisons, at all. Even if all 20 "extra errors" led to the runner getting to 2B on a bad throw, it is still a clear advantage having a great-ranged SS over a statue who never makes errors. Forget the metrics and hypothetical aspects of some of these metrics, range is a tangible and observable aspect of the game. We can all see with our naked eyes that some short stops have amazing range, while others have way less than average range. The differentials between the best and the worst are easily 80 a year, or one play every two games, while the differential between a 5 error SS and a 25 error SS is one error every 8 games. Keep it simple, and it still shows that errors are not the only major aspect of defense. IMO, it's not even #1, let alone something that blows range away in value. I played next to a great range SS and saw that value, firsthand. He took so many hits away from the other team, that if you counted those hits and added them to his offensive numbers, he's have hit over .450 and maybe even .500.
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
BAL canned their manager, today. A lot of teams ahead of us lost, today, so the win was very helpful. We are 2 down in the WC race, with 2 teams to leapfrog for a slot. That's pretty telling, when you consider how badly we have played. The AL final WC slot is just about anybody's, except maybe the CWS, with BAL trying hard to fall out of contention, early. The NL had 4 teams 7 or more games back from the final WC slot. -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Assuming teams continue playing like they have over a 42-44 game sample size, yes. No argument on that. -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
This roster is significantly different from last year's, so I'm not sure I'd count that. all that much. -
Anthony and Mayer both had 2 hits, while Hickey was walked all 4 ABs. Jh Garcia homered for POR (.779.) All Sox minor league teams lost or are losing.
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You can have a pitcher get a win by allowing 10 runs in 1 IP. But, hey, you are right.
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I'm still not sold that the Yanks are for real, but they have played well, so far, and look way better than the rest of the division, so far. -
Armchair psychoanalysis of people you don't even know is bound to miss the mark. Downplaying team wins in favor of pitching wins is short-sighted and just plain wrong. Who is downplaying saves? Some are pointing out the arbitrariness of the rules that establish what a save is, but everyone knows keeping late leads is an extremely essential part of what makes a team good or great. So are SP'ers who put their team in a position to win more often than not.
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To make as many plays as humanly possible, and the biggest plus is to make plays nobody else can make or that most don't make- same as a batter tries to hit better than the opps do, and pitchers try to pitch better than the opps do, so your team has a better chance at winnings. Making less errors is important, and that is factored into fielding metrics, too. There is no way you can ever convince me that Jeter, making 20 less errors than a guy who made 140 more plays in less innings, is the better defender. Jeter beat most other fielders by 2-3% in flg %, but made 10-20% less plays than almost every other SS with a large sample size. To me, it's not even close. I used to play 2B, next to a guy who was a magician on defense at SS. I saw first hand, how superb plays make a huge difference in games. He may have made an equal share of errors, but he was a tremendous difference make on our team.
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I agree. I was asking how we can call up Anthony and Mayer to play FT and still play Rafaela FT. I suggested one option that kinda makes the point, we cannot do it.
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Article: Trevor Story Needs To Head To The Bench
moonslav59 replied to Alex Mayes's topic in Talk Sox Front Page News
True, and others aren't helping either. Our two week leader in PAs is Duran, and he's hitting at a .568 OPS. KC is 6th in PA and at .276, which is barely a good BA, Story is 7th and at .367. Those two OPS are terrible, but the sample size is 10-12 games. Last 28 days (listed by most PAs) .749 Duran (not bad) .994 Devers (had a hot streak) 1.015 Bregman (da man) .405 Story (trying hard to get Mayer promoted) .884 Abreu (steady) .606 Campbell (working himself out of ROY consideration) .741 Rafaela (keeping Anthony in AAA) .865 Narvaez (keeping Wong the #2 catcher) .777 DHam (making a case to stay on the 26) -
Article: Trevor Story Needs To Head To The Bench
moonslav59 replied to Alex Mayes's topic in Talk Sox Front Page News
I'm confused about the whole service time thing. It seems we are way past the the days needed to cross the line. Is this quote outdated? In Major League Baseball, a player gains a year of service time by being on the Major League roster or injured list for at least 172 days of a typical 187-day season. To gain an extra year of service time, a player must be on the roster for less than 172 days in a given season. Teams can potentially gain an extra year of control over a player by strategically delaying their call-up to the Major League roster for 16 or more days at the beginning of the season. -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Thanks in part to the Sox, the Tigers are looking better than all other AL teams at 30-15. I'm doubting they can play to that level, all year, but they do have some exciting players and a true ace. The Yanks, M's, Guardians, Twins and Royals make up the rest of the current playoff slot holders with the Royals at 25-21. That's one game better than HOU and TEX. It's strange to see just one ALE team in the top 9, as the A's are #9, right now at 22-23. The Sox, Jays and Rays are bunched up at #10, #10 and #11: -3 BOS 22-24 and TOR 21-23 -4 TBR 20-24 As bad as we have looked, minus three is a gift from so many other teams not playing great baseball. It's hard to be optimistic at a time like this. Losing 4 in a row is hard to spin into anything hopeful. It doesn't make it any easier to see we have a plau 13 run differential, and in fact, I think it makes it even harder to swallow. This sucks, and there is no doubting that. The good thing about baseball is that the season is 162 games long, and we have 116 left to play and more days off coming than just about everyone else. We need to get Buehler and Fitts back and pitching well. Maybe it will help by moving a SP'er or two to the pen. Maybe not. Our D has looked a little better, but we keep making dumb errors. We are still making our share of dumb base running errors, too. One day, the starter looks good and the pen implodes, then the reverse. One day our bats look great, then kaput. We can't seem to get it all working, at the same time, for any extended stretch. I can see why fans are throwing blame at Cora, and the roster construction issue has remained at or near front and center since the Mookie trade. Games are not won on paper, but I still look at our players and those on other teams, and I think we should be a top 6 team in the AL. -
You think how errors are subjectively called is accuracy? You think only errors and Flg % matter? There is very little in baseball philosophy I disagree with more. To me, range matters way more, and simple basic numbers support my position. Let's take 2009-2010: Jeter was third in Flg% at .982- just .004 from #1. He played SS for 1260 innings. 13 other SSs played within 100 or so innings as he did. Here are the amount of plays each made: 689 Tejada 21 Errors 686 OCab 25 E 668 Y Escobar (less innings than Jeter) 13 E 648 Tulo 9 E 630 A Ramirez 20 E 617 Theriot 15 E 618 E Aybar (less innings) 11 E 616 Furcal 20 E 611 Scutaro 10 E 601 Rollins 6 E 570 HanRam 10 E 552 Betancourt (100 less innings) 18 E 546 Jeter 8 ERRORS! Yup, he's the best! There are serious flaws in this argument, I know, just as there is with any single measurement or metric, but seriously: Jeter made between 1- 20 less errors than everyone on this list, but he also made way fewer plays than everyone, and the differentials were staggering with some others 140 less plays than the leader! 20 less errors trumps 140 more plays? This is absurd! He made 120 less plays than a guy who played less innings than him! Making plays is what defense is about. Jeter made 98% of the ones he got to, which was 2-3% better than most others. Y Escobar made 20% more plays in less innings! These are not metrics or anything fancy. It's plays made and erros. That's as basic as defense ratings gets.
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How? Mayer at SS, Rafaela at 2B, Campbell at 1B, Anthony in LF and Duran in CF? Bench: Story, Ref/Abreu platoon, Wong and DHam (To AAA: Sogard.) I thought I was the master position shuffler. You got me beat.

