moonslav59

Max is gonna get upset. It's the pitching!

Yes, almost exactly the same amount on 1B and 24 SBs to 15. Over a season, that's about 50 to 30. That is significant, but 30 SBs and the threat of Duran stealing bases still has significant value.

I totally agree, and even if Duran never comes close to these numbers, again, he will still likely be a top 5-6 offensive player on this team: better than Rafaela, better than the kids, for at least a year or two, better than Story and better than a Narvaez-Wong combo. Better than Casas. Only Bregman and the Abreu-Ref look like sure bets at being batter at the plate. Duran's speed might jump him over those two for total offensive value, going forward. Trading our 2nd or 3rd best offensive player needs to bring back a very special player, and they we have to cross our fingers on Rafaela, Abreu, Anthony, Garcia or maybe Ref/Masa/Campbell. That being said, I have to think about this: We trade Duran, Romero and Sandlin for a solid Pitcher. How much is that upgrade worth over Buehler or Fitts? Now, weigh that vs the downgrade from Duran in LF to Anthony/Garcia/Campbell. One could argue, it's worth the trade.

Last year, Duran had 168 singles + BBs + HBP and 34 SBs. This year, Duran has 81 singles + BBs + HBPs and 15 SBs. IMO, he slight drop in SBs is dues to being on 1B, less often.

It makes sense to make him the DH. he sucks on D and is a china doll. I would not count on him for anything, though. I don't think he has the trade value that matches what he could become. The guy can hit, despite what Max tells us about his 3 week sample size to start the year.

We need 4, maybe 5 OF'ers, and maybe Refsnyder comes back, next year as a bridge to Garcia or Bleis. We have Duran, Rafeala, Abreu, Anthony, Campbell, Garcia and maybe count Refsnyder and Yoshida. That's 1-2 more than we need, and IMO, we could be fine after taking away any name on this list. There are 6 players plus Ref & Masa. That is abundance to the point of being wasteful, when you have such great needs in other areas. Anthony is the last of these I'd trade, but he'd also bring back the most. The infield is more complex and sketchy. We are not sure Campbell can play any infield position well, including 1B. Casas is always a concern. I'm not sold on Toro-Romy as our future 1Bmen, if Casas fails. I like having Arias as depth for down the road, so I'm not for trading him. I want to keep Mayer. With Story a concern and aging. I'm not for trading Mayer or Arias. Campbell could be a trade piece, but I'd avoid, if I could. I'm not for trading any top player or prospect for a rental, and that includes Arias and Garcia. I'm thinking Romero, Bleis and maybe Sandlin is about as high as I go. I'm just not sure they bring back what we need, so playing it halfway doesn't make sense to me, either. This is not an easy choice.

Ellsbury reincarnated.

Yup. Playing it halfway gets you halfway to 1.000, as in a .500 team.

LMAO. I'd really prefer to keep all the young talent, but some appears to be blocked or log jammed. Someone needs to decide who is the better ones to keep and part with. We have areas of great need and areas of abundant talent: do the math. I draw the line at pets.

Campbell went 0-4 tonight with Woo. 4 Ks!!!! Too bad we are playing DHam and Romy at 2B.

Aita went 6.1 w GRE: 1 hit, 0 ER, 2BB, 8K (1.42 ERA, now.) SAL won 5-2: Futrell went 4, 3H, 0ER, 1BB, 3 K and Cespedes went 2-4 w HR and is now over .700.

2022-2025 OF Splits: v R .840 Duran .835 Abreu .810 Yoshida (DH only?) .687 Rafaela .683 Refsnyder vs L .927 Refsnyder .669 Yoshida .653 Rafaela .625 Duran .553 Abreu Defense in OF: DRS (Innings in OF) Player OAA +25 (1634) Abreu +9 +23 (1395) Rafaela +17 +12 (3307) Duran +4 -4 (714) Yoshida -9 -8 (1407) Refsnyder -9

Here are the soxprospects.com projected rotations by level for 2026: MLB: Crochet, Sandoval, Bello, Dobbins, Crawford, Harrison (Houck/pen) AAA: Perales, Early, Sandlin, Uberstine, Wehunt, Drohan (Murphy/pen) AA: Tolle, Clarke, Paez, Valera, Rogers, Rivera (Ingrassia/pen) A+: Aita, Holobetz, Tygart, Neely, Brooks, Ehrlicher (Vogatsky) A-: Cason, Fajardo, Reyes, Travieso, Ruiz, J Bello FCL: Delzine, Cordero, Zink, A Lopez, C Lee

Some people think Duran should be untouchable. My thought is it will probably take Duran, Romero & Sandlin to get Painter. Just a guess.

The fate of the Red Sox seasons seems to ebb and flow, but mostly we look like we'll end up near .500, again- missing the playoffs for the 4th straight season and 6th in the last 7 seasons. I'm beginning to think being sellers looks like the best idea. Some of the players we trade may not bring back much, but something is better than nothing, and we'd free up some roster slots to allow some of our younger talent a chance to showcase what they have. Bregman: I'd try very hard to rework his contract to get him to stay, even if it's something minor just to get hi to commit to one more year, before the deadline. Otherwise, as much as I hate to say it, we should trade him. Chapman: He should bring back a nice return. Wilson: He might bring back more than we think. Buehler: it's hard to imagine anyone wanting him, but with his playoff successes, maybe somebody will. Giolito: he has an option that kicks in, if he reaches 140 IP, which I'm sure we could make not happen, but he likely has trade value, now, due to his decent pitching, of late. Hendriks: I doubt we could get rid of him, even if we paid his full contract remaining. Refsnyder: I'd like to bring him back as Abreu's platoon partner for 2016, but we also have two RH'd OF bats looking for a slot on the 26 man roster: Campbell & Jh Garcia. That's it for the one year players. Others may include: Duran (option, then 2 arbs left) or Abreu (pre-arb in '26, then 3 arbs) Salary Dumps: Story $25M x 2 plus $5M buyout for '28, Yoshida $18.6M x 2 remaining and Hicks $12M x 2 remaining. I guess we could trade Sandoval, who is owed $12.75 x 1 and eat the full $18.25M we paid. Players like Wong, Sogard, Eaton, Grissom, DHam and others will not bring back much. Assuming none of the FAs return, except Bregman, here is how the 40 man roster might start out looking (41 listed): Crochet, Sandoval, Bello, Dobbins, Crawford, Fitts, Harrison, Perales, Rule 5: Sandlin Slaten, Houck, Whitlock, Wink, Bernardino, Weissert, Murphy, Kelly, Hicks, Criswell, Guerrero, Burdi, Alcara Narvaez, Wong Casas, Toro, Romy, Rule 5 Jordan Mayer, DHam Story, Sogard Bregman, Eaton Duran, Anthony Rafaela, Campbell Abreu, Jh Garcia Yoshida To me, we'll need a solid #2 SP, a Closer, another solid pitcher and maybe a 1Bman, if they lost trust in Casas. It's hard to imagine thinking we are just 3-4 solid additions away from being serious contenders, so maybe my homerism is clouding my vision, and we'll need a couple more upgrades via 2 or 3 for one trades, but maybe we trade a couple players, this deadline, like an OF'er, who is on the 2026 list.

That's the scary thing. Standing pat looks scary, too.

3 hits. Horrible.

We all share in this feeling. Maybe, I'm being a homer by thinking we have more "keepers" than we should, but I do think we have a decent core. We also have some serious holes to fill.

I agree. Add to this the swift rise of Jh Garcia, Campbell looking more like a 1Bman or CF'er than a 2Bman and possible return of Refsnyder in 2026, the OF is just too crowded to not trade someone. Is wanting Abreu traded over Duran "bashing" him? I don't think so. I hate trading Duran. His speed, alone, makes him a weapon we have not seen since Ellsbury. He's also got some power and OB skills. I'm not for handing him away. I'm asking for a solid SP'er in return, and we all know how much value they have. it's actually praising Duran to say I think his value is high enough to net us a solid pitcher.

I think we have an identifiable core of players that Brez, Cora & Co. all agree on: (Players in parenthesis are not set at these positions) C: Narvaez 1B: _____ (Campbell, Casas, Toro/Romy) 2B: Mayer or Story SS: Story or Mayer 3B: Bregman (I think we look to rework his contract) LF: Anthony (not 100% certain, here, maybe Duran or Garcia) CF: Rafaela (Campbell?) RF: ______ (Abreu, Garcia) DH: ______ (Yoshida-Refsnyder/Romy or Yoshida-Duran/Casas) The pitching core is a short list: Crochet, Sandoval, Bello, Dobbins (Crawford, Houck, Fitts) Slaten, Whitlock (_____, ______, _______, ______)

So much for Jh Garcia being handed a 1Bman's mitt.

Now, the other side of me. Sox fWAR leaders since 2024: 7.5 Duran 6.2 Devers (just traded) 4.3 Abreu (platoon player) 2.9 Rafaela (FT CF'er, now) 2.5 O'Neill (gone) 2.4 Bregman (prorates to about equal value as Duran) 2.4 Narvaez (prorates to about equal value as Duran) 2.1 Refsnyder (platoon player) 1.3 DHam and 1.1 Story On a team with a hurting offense, here are the OPS leaders since 2024: .938 Bregman (BOS only) .883 Devers (gone) .851 Refsnyder (short side platoon) .847 O'Neill (gone) .795 Duran (Can't afford to trade him) .795 Toro (Is he for real?) .786 Abreu (long side platoon) .785 Narvaez (small sample size) .765 Yoshida .754 Romy, .730 Casas, ,712 Wong, .679 Rafaela, .662 Story When you factor in Duran's base stealing skills, can we really trade a top 3 offensive player, now ot this winter?

To me, trading Duran over Abreu or Rafaela has always made more sense. Age Value in return Anthony plays LF, but can also play RF, unlike Duran. Jh Garcia is making a serious move is a more recent reason added on. What would Philly want added to Duran for us to get Painter? Any other young pitchers we could get for Duran & ____?

I'd do what it takes to lock Bregman up, but I'm not sure about more than 4 years. 3-4 might get scary, too.

I've been a huge Jh Garcia fan since almost day one (and his brother, too.) I'm not the only guy who thinks this kid is for real. He bats righty. He's a plus defender and can play CF or RF. I could even see us, eventually, trading Duran and Abreu, leaving this: LF Anthony (Yoshida) CF Rafaela (Campbell & Garcia) Bleis down the road RF Garcia (Refsnyder)