moonslav59

By bidding $5M more, no matter what. I see 3-4 FA pitchers that would be good enough #2 for us. Let them have 2 and we should be able to get 1. If not, trade for pitching and sign Bregman and Tucker, or Bregman and Alonso or Bregman and ____.

Had we kept Sale, we would not have had the cash to pay for someone even less promising than Gio.

I did not like the Gio signing on day one, either, for the reasons everyone has stated. He sucked for the second half of 2023. I did see him as more likely to pitch more innings than Sale with some hope he could bounce back. It's not like the first half of 2023 does not count or was so far away that it was absurd to think he might pitch that well, again. He's kinda doing that now, so the idea looks less absurd, now. That was the point I was trying to highlight. The trade sucks, in hindsight, There is no doubt on this. We both did not think it was a bad deal trading Sale, saving $17M AAV, adding what we hoped was a 2B solution and then using the savings on someone that looked like a better bet than Kluber, Richards, Paxton and Martin Perez. It made some sense to us, at the time, so I find it hard to slam Brez for what happened in hindsight. It was a bad trade, but it wasn't illogical, at the time. IMO, it wasn't an obvious bad idea at the time.

I'm not sure PIT is willing, but we should try. Skubal from DET, too. TOP fWAR pitchers since 2023: 14.3 Wheeler (not available) 13.4 Skubal (Det is a contender) 12.7 Logan Webb (not available) 11.6 Sonny Gray (past prime) 11.0 Sale (LOL) 10.8 Valdez (FA will be 32) 10.4 Cease (FA will be 30) 9.7 Gausman (not available) 9.4 P Lopez (trade with MIN?) 8.8 C Sanchez (PHI- not available) 8.6 C Ragans (KC traded for him in 2023 for Chapman) 8.6 Kirby (not available) 8.5 Lugo (FA will be 36) 8.1 Fried & Gilbert (not available) 8.0 R Suarez (FA will be 30) 7.3 to 7.9: Skenes, Kikuchi, Burnes, Wacha, Steele, M Keller, Gallen, Ryan, M King, Nate, Luzardo, Gore.) 2024-2025: 10.1 Skubal 8.9 Sale 8.4 Wheeler 8.0 Crochet 7.8 Webb 7.7 Skenes 7.0 Sanchez 6.8 Cease (FA) 6.5 Ragans 6.4 Valdez (FA) 15. Seth Lugo (5.6 FA) 16. Ranger Suarez (5.5 FA) 17. M King (5.3 FA) I'm thinking it's time we take the plunge on a top FA starter.

He has sucked- no doubt. ERA: 10.29 1st innings 5.50 2 to 7 innings Yes, both suck, but one makes it impossible for the offense to pull out a win. The other, not so much. (He has a 2.73 ERA in innings 2-3, 14.29 in inning 4 and 3.53 innings 5-7.)

Wow, I can't see how they say no, even though the three pitchers are kinda far away. That looks like more than the Crochet offer. I think PIT would want Abreu, not Duran due to the money and extra years of control for Abreu. I'm thinking Abreu, Campbell, Arias, Bleis, and two from Tolle, Clarke, Early and Perales.

Controllable pitchers are rarely traded at the deadline, and it is my opinion that they cost more at the deadline than the winter, so in general, I doubt we can find a trade like that in July. Instead, the more likely plan to better position us for a trade like that this winter would be to trade Duran and or Abreu for prospects and then get the best prospects we can for Chapman, Wilson, Buehler, Gio and Refsnyder. If the Bregman extension looks like a no go, then trading him makes sense, too. I think we can get some very nice pieces and a few decent auxiliary pieces with the names I listed. When you factor in the idea that we have a few valuable prospects in our system, now that we can add to winter packages, I think we'd have enough to make 2-3 very significant trades to fill 3 of our highest 6 need areas: SP2, Closer, solid P, 3B, 2B and 1B. The other 3 could be filled by spending to at least the level of replacing the contracts of Devers, Bregman, Buehler, Gio, Chapman and the lesser deals traded away, like Duran at $8M for '26. This is not going to be easy. We can't afford swings and misses like Buehler and the Sale trade, unless we spend to absurd levels to fill the 6-7 high need areas plus keep or add to our depth. I'm not sure JH is up to the task, especially after spending more, this past winter, and seeing no improvement.

Not mentioning every little thing does not mean I am unaware. I've said all along, the rest of the AL was mediocre and almost every team that was better than us, last year, did very little to improve and actually several got worse on paper. It was one of my main reasons for preseason optimism. I still am optimistic about our extended future, but not for 2025. Citing how much of our budget is on the IL is nothing to be optimistic about. Very few are expected back, soon, and all but maybe Bregman and Sandoval offer any big impact hopes. Sure, out kids could all mature, quickly, over the next 2-3 months, and maybe we see a bounce back from Buehler, Houck, Dobbins from injury or a guy like Sandoval, along with Bregman stepping in right where he left off and a bunch of other things all going right, at the same time, but the odds are not very high, Max.

Yes, and we also let Kimbrel and Kelly go before 2019 with no corresponding additions. The breakdown began under DD, and the revelation that Betts was almost traded under DD confirms the choice was made before the Bloom hire and DD departure.

Yes, but it was $36M vs the $26M we were spending on the incredibly unreliable Sale. We essentially replace Sale with Gio at $10M AAV and added what we thought was our 2B solution. Again, we all know it backfired on all the fronts: Sale, Gio & Grissom, but at the time, it made "SOME SENSE," right? You really don't see any logic in the attempt to improve on rotation reliability and a 2B upgrade?

I'm not sure I want us to be buyers, even at .500. I know 500 might mean 2-3 GB the WC slot, but I'd rather just pack it in on '25, in hopes that selling would improve our chances at being better in 2026.

To me, our OF is our best and deepest position, so the only way signing Tucker makes sense, is if JH has decided to go all the way in on all the way in. there are teams that can't afford Tucker, but would love to settle on Duran or Abreu. We could trade both as parts of packages that bring us back pitching or infield upgrades. We simply have to bring Bregman back. The only other option I see is to sign Alonso and keep Mayer at 3B. I'm not sure Murakami is worth the dice roll on adding a corner infielder. Suarez, Naylor, Arraez or Hoskin might be acceptable additions over Bregman and or Alonso, but only if we have made major upgrades, elsewhere, like Tucker and an second ace. I'm not a Bichette, Grisham or Bellinger fan, so I don't see them as the right way to spend money on upgrades. I don't like the idea of spending big on DH only guys like Ozuna and Schwarber, but we do need a big bat, somewhere- somehow. Torres (2B) or Realmuto (C) may be too costly to fill our 2B and back-up C roles. Top FA SP'ers: Cease, Gallen, Valdez, M King, Suarez: Yes Lugo, Flaherty, Eflin, M Kelly, Canning: Maybe as #3 men. Top Closers: Suarez, Helsley, Diaz: Yes R Iglesias, Chapman, Weaver: Okay Finnegan: Maybe I think we will have to rely on trades- most likely Duran and or Abreu. We could trade both and sign Tucker or go with Anthony, Rafaela & Jh Garcia. We could trade Campbell, Arias, Bleis, Cespedes and others, including some prospects we might pick up at the deadline. We could include prospect pitching, if the return is more promising pitching.

I get it. I was big on signing Fried. I'd be fine with another Crochet trade and extension, instead, even if we lose a top 3 prospect and a couple more next tier guys. I'm okay with 1-2 year deals on closers, as long as we keep choosing wisely (Jansen & Chapman.) I'm not okay with Perez I, Perez II, Richards, Kluber, Wacha, Hill, Paxton, Giolito, Sandoval & Buehler. I thought the last three was an improvement, but just slightly. We need more boldness on pitching. Brez did "bold" on Crochet & Bregman, and now we need double bold on pitching and we still need bats to make up for losing Devers (and maybe Bregman.) There is a lot to get done to get us to serious contention. At minimum, we need... 1. A second ace or top #2 type SP'er. 2. Another solid SP'er, since we can't count on 3 from Bello, Sandoval, Dobbins and Crawford. 3. A closer as good as Chapman and Jansen were. 4. Bregman or an equal bat at corner infield 5. 2Bman who is good on D and O. 6. 2nd corner infielder (unless you have faith in Casas, Campbell, Toro, Romy & Eaton at 3B or 1B... see #4.) Maybes: A set up man as good as Wilson was, although maybe we just role the dice with Slaten, Whitlock, Houck, Harrison, Hicks and one of our SP'ers who doesn't make the rotation (Dobbins, Crawford, Fitts, Early, Sandlin...) A back up catcher. A DH.

True on Uberstine, Erhlicher & Futrell. I was just listing the guys that have amazing, season-long numbers. There is also Perales, Valera, Sandlin and maybe even guys like Paez, Monegro, Cason and Delzine that could jump in the ranking with a key adjustment made. I know I'm a homer. I know I am biased, but I always have been, and I've not felt like this about Sox young pitchers since the Clemens, Hurst and Ojeda days. It's more about how many we have than about 2-3 near sure bet studs.

As of now, the idea of buying now or at the deadline seems absurd.

While Gio, Buehler and Jansen we not top paid pitchers, they were not "cheap" and they did represent an uptick in expectations over the Richards, Klubers Perez's, Wachas and Hills of the 2019-2022 era of low spending. I'm not defending it. We should have spend even more, but I do think the effort increased to improve the pitching. I was going to say "reliable pitchers," but then Buehler, Sandoval, Hendriks and others came to mind. In this sense, you are right: we just went more upscale on unreliables.

Except maybe figuring on the durability factor- not the uppside factor. Weren't we all sick of pitchers on the IL, all the time? (Like now?) Gio was supposed to be an answer to that, despite rumblings that his second half decline, the year before might have been injury related. Can you honestly say, you'd have bet that Sale would pitch more innings than Gio in 2024? IP since Covid Gio: 179, 162, 184 (251 from '19-'20) Sale: 43, 6, 102 (147 from '19-'20) I think the idea was, they preferred a guy who took the ball every 5 days and saved the pen, over a better pitcher who never or hardly pitches. That does make some sense, doesn't it? It just did not work out as they expected. (Also, when you factored the money spent on Gio, you did not factor in the savings on not paying Sale most of his money.)

It was, but Sale was as questionable as Gio, and we made a serious stab at finally fixing the 2B problem that has been ongoing for 7 years, now. The deal made some sense, at the time, even on the pitching end, had Sale just continued his 5 year trend, and Gio pitched like he is now. That's not some huge leap of faith and bonehead idea. In hindsight, it is.

Unless we go on a wicked run, and even then, I'm not sure, we need to look at the general idea of trading every single FA to be, even if we might try to bring them back, next year. Extending Bregman and maybe Chapman and Refsnyder might be the exceptions. Then, decide on Duran and/or Abreu to trade for pitching and make way for Jh Garcia and Anthony as our next corner OF'ers. Try like hell to see what if we can trade Story and Yoshida to shave a little off our budget, with the idea that we spend heavily, this winter on pitching, pitching, pitching and right side infield, assuming Bregman is back. It's not a complicated blue print, but it will have to involve spending big, and more importantly, wisely and at least one more big trade that rivals the Crochet deal, but perhaps with some vets mixed in, and not all just prospects.

Jh Garcia might just be that younger RH'd bat that we already have in the system. Key word: "might." I'm not sure why you trade Romy, if the return won't be great. Are you just against platoons? Same with Abreu & Refsnyder: you say we are a AAAA team, but RF is one position we blow others away, so the solution is to blow it up, too? Duran is struggling, so I can at least understand the feeling that he may be in decline, so get what we can for him. I admit, I thought this team was better than it turned out to be, but we still have a nice core of young players that most should improve. I think we have enough of them to build around, but it's going to take more bold moves like the Crochet trade and Bregman signing, and we can't afford another Buehler signing or Sale trade.

You can't read. I give up.

I made the adjustment, and yes, unrealistic.

Want a wild & crazy plan? Trade: Abreu (pre-arb + 3 arbs,) Story ($25M x 2 w $25M option '28 and $5M buyout), Wong (3 arbs), Casas (3 arbs,) Arias & Sandlin (prospects) For: Matt Olson (1B, 31 y/o and owed $22M x 5 + $20M option '30) and Sean Murphy (C, 30 y/0 and owed $15M x 3 + $15M option '28) _______________________________ Trade: Duran ($8M then 2 arbs) & Yoshida ($18M x 2) plus $13M x 2 cash. & Fitts (prospect) For: Luis Castillo (32 y/o and owed $23M x 2 w vesting option) _______________________________ Extend Bregman $32M x 5 _______________________________ Sign: Framber Valdez (32 y/o) $32M x 4 Sign: A Chapman (37 y/o) $11M x 2 _______________________________ The 2026 Red Sox SP: Crochet, Valdez, Castillo, Bello, Sandoval (Dobbins/Crawford) RP: Chapman, Slaten, Whitlock, Dobbins, Crawford, Houck, Harrison, Hicks (Weissert, Murphy, Early, Perales, Bernardino, Kelly, Guerrero) C: Narvaez, Murphy (DH) 1B: Olson, Toro 2B: Campbell, DHam SS: Mayer, Romy (DH) 3B: Bregman (Romy) LF: Anthony (Refsnyder) CF: Rafaela (Jh Garcia) RF: Jh Garcia, Refsnyder (DH) I know, I know... not for the "Realistic" thread.

Am I getting to gah-gah over a few of our prospect pitchers? Early is now down to 1.94 after his 6 IP no hit game, today. (.573 OPS Against) Rivera is at 1.84 with a .452 OPS Against. Clarke 2.08 with an amazing .336 OPS Against. (Not sure about including Mullins, but he's at 1.97 and .534.)

Brez wanted Devers to play 1B, and he never did. We know that, for sure. Either Devers refused, or Cora was too chicken to ask/tell him too. Okay, okay, Cora loves his players and never wanted Devers at 1B, this year, so he just followed his golden heart. It must be that Brez was too chicken to tell Cora to tell Devers to play 1B. (My head is spinning.)