moonslav59

The Yanks and several other teams need an OF'er, too. I get the point that we aren't likely getting a solid #2 SP'er for Duran or Abreu, but we have more we can offer. We could go lighter and look to trade JG Garcia or Campbell, but an OF'er will be traded, this winter- maybe two. Remember, these guys had (still have?) visions of Yoshida in LF. I think we learn from the mistake of omission last winter. This time we do trade an OF'er.

If you want us to fall short again, yes hold onto 8 OF'ers, while we watch guys like Toro at 1B, DHam at 2B, whoever is Mayer's back up at 3B and four #5's behind Crochet. We may find a one for one trade, like maybe Duran for Lodolo, but most of my suggest OF trades involve Duran + others for a solid #2 SP'er. The idea is that the "step down" from Duran to Anthony might not even be a step down, but the step up from Crawford to Ryan or Lodolo is a major boost. And, we aren't trading Yoshida so Duran can DH. Duran's value on another team as an OF'er is worth more than to us at DH. That's basically the impetus for a trade.

There is a whole article about it.

I'm with you and others on keeping Casas. I'm thinking we need one major trade and one major signing, plus one more pretty big addition... minimum.

When you have 3-4 major need areas and 6+ OF'er, yes, you trade one.

We kinda knew all the hyped kids were not going to bust out, and certainly not in year one- although Casas and a few others are beyond year one. I agree with you on not relying so much on kids being good, continuing being good and getting better. It's okay to count on a certain amount of them to contribute, but we need to have contingency plans in place that are better than Toro, as well as some major upgrades at a minimum of 2-3 key slots. It's just my opinion, but I see 3 major additions needed to be a top 4-5 competitive team in MLB: SP2, 1B and 2B/3B. The last one is betting on Mayer/Romy being able to cover the one not filled. That might be hoping & praying for too much, by itself, but to me, it's an acceptable risk. Alternatively, we could maybe sign a guy like Merrill Kelly, and trade an OF'er plus others for someone like K Marte (1B) and then add a 1Bman AND 3Bman and keep Mayer as a tangible depth asset. ( I suppose we could follow MVP's advice and trade Mayer.) In short, we need to get bold to win. The Crochet, Chapman and Bregman adds were bold. We gained 8 wins. Ideally, we need to add another 8 wins. That won't happen staying status quo, and it certainly should not happen if we don't replace Bregman/Devers and Gio in kind.

IMO, we have a clear window. That window can go on for 4+ more years. I just don't feel like this is the time we establish a plan based on just hopes and a few minor upgrades that you can get by limiting how large and long you go on FAs. Hopes on less injuries. Hopes on younger players improvements outweigh any step-backs. Hopes on hitting on minor signings, when our record has not been too good with them. Okay, maybe we find the next Bregman, who will take a massive overpay on a 1 year deal, but remember, he got the opt out, so if he sucked, we'd have been stuck for 2 more years at $40M each. With all due respect, and I get your point, I feel we just have to go large and long on at least one guy and maybe moderately large and long on a second guy. We can't fiddle around, this winter. We lost Devers, Bregman, Giolito, Wilson, Matz, Refsnyder and maybe Lowe. Yes, we also lost some guys that look like addition by subtraction- like Buehler, but unlike past seasons, the pluses way outweigh the minuses we are losing from the 2025 roster. IMO, we need to do more than just try to get back to status quo and then pray for the kids to carry us farther. To get back to status quo, we need to stay even with 1000 PAs lost by Devers, Bregman & Ref plus the IP's by Gio and a few others. Just doing this almost certainly means adding 1-3 guys on big contracts or trading some of the future for more cost effective replacements. That's before even addressing trying to get better on paper. This is not the time for rolling the dice on just the kids.

Offense was a grave concern in 2025, and losing Devers and Bregman was about 830 PAs or our very best rates. We can count on maybe 600+ PAs from Anthony and hope he matches his 2025 OPS, but that's not near enough to even get us to equal. We have some younger players, but who jumps out as an expected big jump up? Narvaez could step back. Rafaela could, too. Abreu might be our best hope. Mayer? Campbell? Jh Garcia or Campbell?

Imagine subtracting Bregman, Duran and Gio but adding Lodolo & Gore via trades and Alonso, Suarez and Polanco via free agency. 1. L Anthony LF 2. R Alonso 1B 3. S Polanco 2B 4. R Suarez 3B 5. L Abreu RF 6. R Story SS 7. L Yoshida DH/ R Romy DH 8. R Narvaez C 9. R Rafaela CF (If Story opts out, we have Mayer at SS, and we stay under the second tax line.)

While I'm not expecting any big winter budget number, I'm going on the assumption we might spend up to the tax line without going over for the 2nd year. Depending on what site you visit, that means about $40-45M, assuming no salary trades. (I'm assuming no Nate Lowe but yes on Story returning.) If you figure we have 2-4 high need areas, that's not really enough to get all positions filled with high quality free agents, unless we get some luck involved. My idea is to use or depth to fill the 4th need, and trade from OF depth and some prospects for one of the top 3 needs. That leaves just 2 slots to be filled via free agency. That could be a $30M + $15M combo of $25M + $20M AAV combos. If we can somehow trade Hicks or Yoshida to save a few Million, we could up those numbers slightly. If we trade Duran $8M for Lodolo $4.5M, we'd add a little more. Campbell $7.5 for Gore $5M adds a little more. Maybe we can get the winter budget to $55-60M, this way, of JH could allow Brez to go up to the second line. Look at the difference in trying to sign 2 major FAs using SPOTRAC's AAV and having $40-45M vs $60-65M: $30M Alonso $28M Bregman $27M Ranger Suarez or Cease $25M Schwarber $23M Bichette $16M M Kelly or Bassitt $15M E Suarez, J Naylor, J Polanco $14M N Martinez, G Torres, Realmuto At $45M, maybe we can get Alonso & J Polanco or Torres At $55M: Alonso & Bichette At $65M: Alonso, E Suarez & J Polanco (+Matz) Trade for Lodolo & Gore I know, that sounds like crazy talk, but if Spotracks numbers are close, and we break the moratorium on large and long deals, we can do this is and stay under the line(s.)

He's got 3 arbs left. You want to go beyond 3?

I'd put him at +0.5, so yes, I kinda agree.

Not saying all these guys are available or realistic Sox targets, but here are some selected ERA- leaders from 2024-2025 (300+ IP- only 54 pitchers in sample size) 2. Skubal 57 3. Sale 59 5. C Sanchez 68 (Crochet is #6 at 72) 7. Nate 73 8. Hunter Brown 73 12. Peralta 77 13. R Suarez 79 14. Imanaga 80 15. Framber 82 17. Lugo 83 (Pivetta is #18 at 83) 19. Ryan 86 20. Wacha 86 22, N Martinez 87 24. Singer 90 26. Littell 92 (Bello is #28 at 93) 29. Quintana 94 31. Flaherty 95 32. Berrios 96 33. Bibee 96 34. Gore 97 35. Kikuchi 99 36. Cease 99 37. Keller 99 Bassitt 101, Gallen 102 Set the IP limit to 200 IP, and we have these additions (114 pitcher sample size) 5. Hunter Greene 63 8 C. Burnes 71 14. M Boyd 76 27. Tr. Rogers 84 38. M Kelly 88 40. Lodolo 90 44. P Lopez 91 (Houck is at 59 with 97) 60. E Cabrera & Lorenzen 97 66. S Gray 100

I wouldn't mind Singer, but I'm not overpaying for a one and done #3/4 SP'er. We need a 1/2 type. I'll overpay for that.

I'll believe it when I see it, and I don't expect to see it. The Sox did extend Devers, and I doubt they had dumping him in mind. They also extended Crochet to $170M/6, but that's not a FA signing. It is a long term commitment (over 5 years and over $100M for a pitcher.) Their last biggest SP signings were extending Sale ($145M/5) and re-signing Nate at $68M/4. Although signed near the same time, Sale's kicked in 2020- Nate's in 2019. That Price deal at $217M/7 was the shocker and very likely the outlier. This season, I don't see any SP'er worth going even 3+ years on, so I hope they extend their trend. I'm hoping (not expecting) we trade for a solid SP'er and sign one big bat and a second pretty good one. Maybe add Matz and Ref, if we can.

Gore has 2 arb years left. He had an ERA+ of 98 and 100 over the last 3 seasons. That being said, I'd give Campbell for him. I don't see him as the solid #2 SP'er I wanted, so I'd kinda want one along with Gore. That might mean deflecting or neglecting the big bats we really need. Of the nearly certain available SP'er, who is your #1 target? Ryan Gore Keller Gore (What about higher contract guys like Gray or Lopez?)

I fixed it for you.

It's hard to know what Cora would have done, but he did say he liked Bregman at 2B. IMO, the best set-up would have been 3B Bregman, SS Mayer, 2B Story, 1B Devers, DH Casas. If they were hellbent on Campbell over Mayer, then Campbell at 2B and Story at SS.

After all the real or fake runs at big names, I do think they felt a great need to make a show to the fans that they were not lying by signing Breggie. I'm not sure the sham worked, as it turned out to be just a one and done, and then shortly afterwards, they dumped Devers, so if anything, we are behind where we were before the Bregman signing, last winter. Way behind.

I'm not sure anyone offers him $140M/5, so maybe he settles on near $120M/4. The Tigers offered him $170M/6, last winter. That would come to about $140M/5, now or $115M/4, if pro-rated, and he's a year older and has a slightly higher injury risk factor.

He'll cost way more than Sandoval plus Paxton, but I agree. We need a major power bat. Position is secondary.

So, you believe 1 year of Breggie was the reason we dumped 8 years of Devers. Got it.

How about Campbell & Clarke (maybe add Sandlin) Garcia, Arias and Sandlin?

I hope we go hard after Alonso. Schwarber would be okay, although he's a DH. (Alonso should be, too.) Suarez or Bichette would help, but are more like sideways moves from Bregman.

You actually think this?