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Everything posted by moonslav59
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I have no idea of those numbers and don't think they are useful in projecting the chances these three have or making a significant MLB showing. Phillips is #14 Holobetz is #31 and will likely be top 25-30, next rankings YRod is #34 and has not been very impressive, but was considered the most promising part of the trade, when it was made. Also, Priester's final 2025 numbers are not complete, yet. He can still go up or down. Would I want Priester back for those three? Yes, mainly because we have a shot in 2025, and we could use a 4/5 SP'er, right now, and we needed one earlier, too. That does not change my opinion on the chances one of these three guys make a MLB impact, someday. Holobetz has a decent .709 OPS Against and a 3.57 ERA in A+ and AA combined. The AA numbers are a small sample size but the 1.87 xERA and .557 OPSA look pretty damn good. I think he moves into our top 25 the next rankings. Phillips is hard to project, but SPs.com says this: High-ceiling right-hander with a wide range of outcomes. Has great size and athleticism and huge velocity. Questions about delivery and strike-throwing ability lead some to think he is best suited for a bullpen role, but has the build of a starter and will be developed there. Fastball and slider both have above-average potential and some think his changeup also has upside. Low-usage arm in college, so could have considerable untapped potential. YRod is also hard to project, as he is just 19 and in his 3rd season of minor league ball- now w GRE w a .661 OPS. He has a non-flattering summary with SPs,com; Potential solid high-minors contributor. Ceiling of a reserve outfielder. Lacks a carrying tool and is not overly projectable even though he is young for High-A. Needs to add strength and make more impact to have a chance against more advanced pitching. Approach metrics are solid, but lack of impact limits his ceiling. Could stand to improve defensively, and if he can stick in center, that would raise his profile, but he currently looks best suited in a corner. I still like the chances one of these three gives us a 1.0+ fWAR someday.
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Romy is better on D at 2B than Rafaela, and he is a back-up option on the 26 man roster now, hence the reduced need for DHam.
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I never came close to calling Rafaela at 2B a disaster. I actually think it is our best 2B solution with Mayer out of the equation. It is just not ideal. My point is, we do not need DHam, until the SEP call-ups, and having 3 catchers adds about as much value as adding DHam. There is value to having DHam as a late inning D guy or PR'er. It would allow Rafaela to move to CF, late in games, and improve the OF D, too. Is this worth more than having a 3rd catcher and allowing us to PH for Womg or the slumping Narvaez without worrying about the back-up catcher getting hurt, or PH'ing for the 2nd C, later on? Maybe- maybe not. Both ideas make some sense. I was just responding to your comment that 3 catchers make "NO sense." Adding Campbell would demote Toro, so that is a separate issue.
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My point was that 4 OF'ers could not all play, without Rafaela at 2B, so there is no need for calling up a 2Bman (DHam) otherwise an OF'er would sit, or DHam would never play, except as a late inning D guy at 2B (Rafaela moving to CF to improve the OF D.) That does have value but not all that much.
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A look at some tiny sample size results of this year's draft picks: 1. Witherspoon (15th pick) #4 Prospect N/A '25 CBA. Phillips (33rd for Priester) #14 Prospect N/A '25 C2. Godbout (75th) #23 Prospect GRE 1.071 OPS in 6 games 3. Eyanson (87th) #15 Prospect N/A in '25 4. M White (118th) #37 Prospect 5. Foutch (148th) #44 N/A 6. Finley (178th) #58 N/A 7. Patton (208th) #52 N/A 8. Brown (238th) NR 9. Mayers (268th) NR 10. M Martin (298th) SAL .664 in 11 games 11. B Morgan (328th, but $350/500K bonus) #48 N/A Top IFA bonuses: $1.4M D Soto DSL (both) #11 prospect. .804 in 46 games $950K H Rivas #32 Prospect. DSL .790 in 45 games $700K E Alfonso NR DSL .585 in 43 gms $500K S Delzine #25 Prospect. DSL 4.82 in 9 IP $500K H Ramos #28 Prospect. DSL .827 in 36 games $350K C Cordero DSL 1.79 in 40 IP NR but might be next rankings Top 2024 Picks: (1. Montgomery and 4. Ehrhard were traded) 2. Tolle (50th) #1 prospect 3.55 ERA in 87 IP GRE/POR/WOO 3. Neely (86th) #50 N/A 5. Clarke (148th) #6 prospect. 4.03 in 38 SAL/GRE 6. Aita (177th) #33 prospect. 3.97 leads org in IP at 100. SAL/GRE 7. Turner (207th) NR FCL/GRE .597 in 49 gms 8. C Cason (237th, but $1.25M bonus) #27th Prospect very tiny sample size Wehunt #26 Prospect 3.99 w POR Holobetz #31 prospect (drafted by MIL- Priester trade) 3.57 ERA in 76 IP GRE/POR H White, D Futrell (2.14 in 46 SAL/GRE), S Brooks, B Tygart (#49/ 0.00 in 7IP SAL), S Sprague (3.80 ERA in 85 IP) & J Gartrell 2024 IFA Fajardo (by CWS- traded Booser for him) #18 Prospect. 2.33 in 58 FCL/SAL Asencio NR SAL .654 in 61 gms Brito NR DSL 1.082 in 42 games D Reyes on IL #51. FCL 14.33 ERA in 16 IP Fermin FCL #57. .827 in 48 games Gonzales #13 prospect. .785 in 75 gms FCL/SAL Azocar FCL/SAL #21 Prospect. .661 in 69 games Travieso 38th ranked 3.13 in 55 FCL/SAL J Rodriguez (C) 39th Prospect .768 FCL in 28 games
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
The whole "strength of remaining schedule" thing may be overblown. We weathered our tough stretch, very well, but here is what I found: Top AL Contenders Strength of Schedule: 5. Texas (just about out of it, despite MVP's call that they might get "hot.") 9. TBR 9just about out of it, despite a very nice plus run differential) 11. TOR (good to see is harder than ours) 15. CLE (hanging in there despite teams around them doing much more at the deadline. They were sellers! Go figure!) 19. BOS (gotta take the easier teams seriously) 20. DET (not really our competition) 21. SEA (may win the ALW) 26. HOU (neck & neck w SEA for ALW and WC berth) 27. NYY (sad to see, but they have been a bad team for over 2 months, now. 31-37 since May 30th! That's a sample size of 42% of the season.) TOR still has to play... 3 v MIL, HOU, BOS, NYY, Cincy & KCR. Their "easier" opponents are not all push-overs: 7 vs TBR, 3 vs MIN, TEX, BAL and MIA & PIT. The Yanks have 17 games vs CWS, WSH & BAL, We have 15 vs PIT, ATH & BAL, -
Marcelo Mayer Set to Undergo Season-Ending Wrist Surgery
moonslav59 replied to Alex Mayes's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I've read opening day for Casas and Mayer. I'd say Bregman is the best bet to stay healthy, followed by (gasp) Story, then Mayer & Casas are tied. -
I'm not thrilled about 3 catchers, but being able to PH for Wong makes some or a little sense, right? Also, every position is full and has a capable back-up, even 1B. We don't need DHam on the 26, right now. We certainly don't need an 8th OF'er on the 26. We could use a 1Bman, but we'd just swap out Toro and not add one to the 26. We have Romy as the 1Bman with Toro, N Lowe of K Campbell. If we had a great need for Dham, then I'd agree that this is an issue.
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Marcelo Mayer Set to Undergo Season-Ending Wrist Surgery
moonslav59 replied to Alex Mayes's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Maybe which ONE, does not by June 1st. -
Marcelo Mayer Set to Undergo Season-Ending Wrist Surgery
moonslav59 replied to Alex Mayes's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
We may keep Arias, as Story has just 2 years of control remaining, and Arias may not be ready until 2027 or 2028. Plus, we can move Story to 2B, if he becomes ready. Mayer is an injury concern or can play 3B, if Bregman bolts. My guess is we keep Romero around, too. He'll be Rule 5 in 2026, so no hurry on him. I think we'll trade an OF'er, even if it's Jh Garcia, but unless the plan is to rid ourselves of Yoshida, where can all 4 OF'ers play? We could try to add DHam or Grissom to the deal, but some teams may not want them for free, as they will have winter roster crunches, too. I think we will trade a package for a #2 type pitcher (Ryan) or a #3 type (Keller.) Since we will be getting a 3 year controlled pitcher, we will add some pitching prospects to the package, but not Tolle, and hopefully not Valera. Maybe 1 from Clarke, Early or Perales and 1 to 2 from Rule 5's: Sandlin, Mullins, Paez or Uberstine. My guess is... Duran, Campbell, Clarke, Paez & Sandlin for Ryan & K Clemens or Abreu, Early and Sandlin or Mullins for Keller -
What does this have to do with Anthony?
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Possible roster moves: Mayer to 60 Day IL. Claim N Lowe or add Hickey or a pitcher (Sandlin- a DEC Rule 5 guy, anyway, Tolle, Uberstine-another Rule 5 guy, Early, Burdi) to the 40. I do not think we add Jh Garcia. Demote Toro and call up Campbell or add Lowe to the 26. Demote I Campbell and promote Criswell, Bernardino, Murphy, Harrison or Fitts (or newly added pitcher) DFA Ali Sanchez (C) and promote Campbell, DHam or Sogard. Sept 1st call-ups: 1 pitcher and 1 everyday player from those listed above. (If Ali Sanchez iss till on the roster by 9/1/25, we may keep 3 catchers to end the season.) Key Rule 5 players to possibly be added to the 40 by December: Sandlin Bleis Mullins Paez Uberstine Unlikely: Drohan, I Coffey, Monegro (IL) Song, Hickey Winter trades: most likely, an OF'er gets traded. -
So, claiming Lowe would cost us about $2.3M. That is not all that much. MLBTR reports that someone claiming him seems unlikely.... Another team could claim him and assume the remaining $2.33MM of his $10.3MM salary, but that’s difficult to envision. In the likelier event that he goes unclaimed, the Nationals would remain on the hook for virtually all that money. At that point, Lowe would be free to sign anywhere. A new team would pay him the prorated $760K league minimum for the final few weeks of the season. It appears he may be ours for the taking. If we are not going to call up Campbell before Sept 1st, why not give him a try? Place Mayer on the 60 Day IL, and nobody needs to be DFA'd.
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Seems like we've faced a lot of RH'd SP'er, of late. Bregman is out of the lineup and Story bats in the key 2 slot. Toro at 3B. 1. L-Anthony LF 2. R-Story SS 3. L-Duran CF 4. L-Yoshida DH 5. L-Abreu RF 6. R-Romy 1B 7. S-Toro 3B 8. R-Rafaela 2B 9. R-Narvaez C It's Crochet's turn to put his last start in the distance,
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Question of the week: Was trading Devers the right call?
moonslav59 replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I totally agree. Much less walking on eggshells, at minimal view. -
Marcelo Mayer Set to Undergo Season-Ending Wrist Surgery
moonslav59 replied to Alex Mayes's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Damn! This one hurts. Now, we'll need Rafaela at 2B FT or near FT. While that helps clear a way for the other OF'ers to play as much as they should, it forces Yoshida to play DH FT. That has not been awful, of late (.531 first 12 games and .900 last 11 games.) It's not the end of the world, and 1B is our biggest need, right now, but 2B defense seems to be an issue, again, and Rafaela started slumping after his move to 2B, too. I'm not sure that will continue, but his D is a known at 2B, pretty much. -
Question of the week: Was trading Devers the right call?
moonslav59 replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Wow, it's been over 50 games! It feels like just a few weeks ago. Devers is going to hit well, again, someday, but so far: .905 w BOS .746 w SFG .543 Toro since the trade is a pertinent fact, too. -
Are you ranking our rookies? How about Narvaez?
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We have 4 OF'ers we are struggling to find places to play. Rafaela plays 2B sucks, but we kinda have to, until Mayer returns. We need no more OF depth on the 26. Bregman, Story and Rafaela are FT IF'ers who just need a day of rest every couple/three weeks. One utility IF'er can cover that, of just use Romy with fill-in-the-blank at 1B (Toro for now) This bench is fine until Mayer returns, and at that point, dump Sanchez: Refsnyder (RF/DH platoon) Wong & Sanchez Romy (1B/2B/SS/3B/DH) We don't need to PH for anybody but Wong. We don't need late inning defense for anybody but maybe Ref in RF, and we can use our GG OF'er, Abreu, for that. It's not ideal to carry 3 catchers, but I think this is just until Mayer returns. He may stay, if we reach Sept 1st call up day. Having a PH chance for Wong has real value.
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There has been a lot of talk, here, about trying to claim him. We could, but someone else might get him, first. I'd be okay with giving him a try over Toro, but I feel like Campbell might be a better shot. The problem might be, if KC fails, Lowe will no longer be an option by then. I was okay with giving Romy a chance at playing FT at 1B (v L & v R,) but he seems to be slumping, now. Romy at 2B also allows Rafaela to play CF more often, but then if forced a might player to the bench, since Cora wants Yoshida at DH FT or w Refsnyder v L. My choices at 1B: 1. Campbell 2. Lowe 3. Romy FT (Rafaela FT at 2B to end the season, although I hate the idea of that.)
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How about Travieso? 7Ks and 1 BB in 4.2 IP. (4 hits & 0 ER)
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part II
moonslav59 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
The Sox are back at the top of the WC slots- tied with SEA. We remain 5 GB TOR, who doesn't show any signs of having a bad stretch, anytime soon. SEA & BOS are 1.5 up on NYY and 4 up on CLE. +5.5 on KCR +7 on TBR and TEX The Sox are tied for the 9th/10th best record in MLB and -1.5 from a tie for 7th w HOU & SDP. -2.0 from tie for 6th best CHC -2.5 from tie for 4th w LAD & PHI That's pretty damn close to being a top 4 team in mid August.

