moonslav59

You make it sound like I'm calling for a radical change in player development (see my previous post). How much time in the minors did they give JBJ in LF and Bogey at 3B? You're saying they were set back, because they moved them too early. My position is that they did not give them enough time in the minors to learn a new position before thrusting them under the spotlight to learn it at the big league level. To me, those two cases back up my position, not yours.

So, is your position that no teams make mistakes in judging when to switch a player's position and sometimes wait too long? But, I guess they just shrug their shoulders and say, "That's what everyone does and it's standard procedure, so it wasn't a mistake". I'm not talking about making a radical change in a player's development plan. I'm talking about taking the player aside after practice and hitting him some grounders and pop-ups at a new position for a few weeks. Then, maybe after few weeks, if the player seems to have a knack for the new position, trying him a game here and there at that new position. I seriously doubt that's going to mess with anyone's head. If they appear to be struggling with the new position,then by all means, stop.

Betts had less than 40 games under his belt at AA, before they moved him to CF, then shortly afterwards, they moved him to AAA where he played mostly OF. It has been done before and without any pressure from need at the big league level, so if can be done without need, why can't it be done (in theory) with need. Again, I'm only assuming that Moncada's bat is jusged to be a month away from ML ready at worst. If that's not true, then I have no issues. Personally, my opinion is that his bat is already better than a few players on the 25 man roster right now. I'm never going to say I know more than the Sox, because I know I don't. My point is that Sox management might think Moncada's bat is ready or very near ready, but may not move him to another position until it's too late. Or, they may end up rushing him at 3B or LF like they had to with Bogey in 2013 and Swihart this year. Nobody doubts those two weren't rushed at a new position, and sometimes unforeseeable things happen. It's my opinion that the Middy swoon was project-able or at least had a significant known risk of happening. Yes, I think teams, including the Sox, make mistakes. I'm hoping they are not repeating one now.

How do you know what Moncadas offensive value is at the MLB level? I don't and I went out of my way to sayit was juyst my opinion and that maybe Sox management knows his bat is not ready, and I'd be fine with the decision. My other point is that even if Moncada's bat is not fully "ML ready", it may be better than our subs are right now, and perhaps even better than the slumping HanRam & Shaw. I'm also talking a month from now at the earliest, so by then, we'll know more about Shaw and HanRam and Holt, but if one or two of those guys are struggling and we need Moncada by then, are we going to just give Moncada 10 games at 3B aor LF nd then call him up? You're all okay with that? milb is tiered for a reason. It's not just fantasy, the jump from each level is significant and real, and even if an elite guy can move up to the next level and still mash doesn't mean they can do it by moving up two. Moncada JUST moved up from A ball. Please stop pretending I don't know what the standard guidelines are. The Sox themselves promoted Betts to AA in 2014 without ever playing CF beforehand. He even played winter ball at 2B and SS only. By August he had been promoted to AAA and the bigs while learning a new position along the way. He also kept playing 2B some along the way. He kept mashing the ball and ended up getting a look before we really even needed him. Imagine if we had been in a pennant race and needed him in June? Ooops! The last time we rushed a really really good player who had very little time in AA ball it appeared to screw him up for a few years ( Who Betts?

Exactly, but they waited too long to start giving Bogey reps at 3B. Does anyone really think 10 games in the minors is the standard practice before promoting a player to the bigs at a new position in the midst of a playoff drive? My contention is that we got lucky he did well for a month, and his 2014 season at 3B is evidence that supports that position. He should have gotten exposure to 3B long before 10 games to the big show. I'm not saying they needed to play Bogey at 3B 100% or even 50% of the time to start 2013 in the minors...just practice a little after practice and get a few reps in games here and there before that 10 games came up.

We'll never know. Maybe he'd be a GG 3Bman by now. The whole Iggy situation was different. My contention all along was that I loved Iggy and wanted him as our FT SS a full year before almost anyone else was on his bandwagon. However, I knew early on that the Sox were never going to hand the FT job to Iggy. They saw Bogey as their SS of the future. I'm not saying they were wrong, and I've said many times over, they know more than I do, and they got the Bogey choice right. He has more than surprised me with his defensive development at SS. They also appear to have judged Iggy correctly. However, the fact is, they ended up needing to use Bogey at 3B in a pressure situation after only 10 games at 3B in the minors. That was high risk. Nobody can convince me otherwise, and even though I was calling for Bogey to be given some reps at 3B long before that 10 game stretch, I never said he should be moved to 3B 100% in the minors. I just said, why not give him some reps at 3B, just in case Middy sucked and I thought that was highly probable) or someone gets hurt, but also because he may end up there eventually anyways. It wasn't just about me thinking he'd "end up there eventually". Fact: we need a LF right now. Fact: we may need a 3Bman/1Bman or both soon. Fact: we could use a good bat to give Papi some days off at DH without taking a good bat away from another position. With Young, Holt and Swihart out, our bench, particularly on offense, is not very good. Leon's bubble is going to burst. Marrero may never have a bubble. Hernandez may give us a spark here or there on offense, but IMO Moncada is already better on offense than any of these guys and maybe even some of our starters, but what's holding him back from helping us now or in a month or two is his ability to only play 2b and DH.

I have never disagreed with what the standard practice is. You guys keeps saying it over and over like I'm not getting it. I do get it, but I also know there are exceptions to every rule or guidleline. Look how Betts shot through the system quicker than anyone anticipated. His bat was probably ML ready when he got to AA in 2014. He zipped through about 50 games at AA and AAA and was in the bigs by August. Guess what? He was promoted to AA and switched position very quickly afterwards, although he did play more 2b than CF. So, "rules" can be broken. When he got to AAA, he played 33 games in CF and 6 at 2B. They did a much better job prepping Betts, because I think they realized his bat was ready. Now, we didn't even need Betts in 2014, because we were out of it by the time he came up, so the rush was not on an as needed basis. It was a conscious choice. Now, I do trust Sox management, and maybe they do not equate Moncada's bat with Betts' early 2014 bat. Maybe they do not think his bat is ready yet, and so that is why they see no rush to have him learn a new position. If that's the reason, I'm fine with holding off giving him some reps in practice at 3B and/or LF. However, in my opinion, I think Moncada's bat right now, is probably better than Holt's and maybe even better than HanRam's and possibly Shaw's going forward. Holt had a .664 OPS before going down. His second half of 2015 was pretty bad as well. HanRam has looked better than 2015, but maybe Moncada can improve on his .718 OPS (.590 over the last 4 weeks). Shaw has been a bright spot this season, but his minor league numbers have always kept a doubt in my mind. He's been slumping for over 4 weeks (.618 in the last 4 weeks), and I'm beginning to wonder, if it may be more than just a slump. If he and/0r HanRam continue hitting around .600 for the next month or two, we may need Moncada sooner than anyone thinks we do. Swihart just got his boot taken off. I wouldn't count on him running around the OF much this fall. Even if we just need Moncada as a platoon with Shaw and/or HanRam and to spell Papi at DH here and there, his offensive value may be needed sooner rather than later.

Well, the way Bogey played at 3B in 2014 kind of made it look like we got lucky with his defense in 2013, don't you think? I also think giving Swihart just 11 games in LF before throwing him out there in the bigs was a mistake that ended up not hurting us, though he is hurt now, and we may never know. The Betts move worked brilliantly, but it seemed like even Sox management was surprised by how quickly and how well he adjusted to a radically different position (2B to CF). I don't I made a case against myself, but I can see how some can say everything worked out well, so no criticism is needed. I just hope we don't miss out on a chance to bring Moncada's ML-ready bat into our line-up, because all he do is play 2B or DH.

Or, Holt & Brentz stinking up the place.

Back to Castillo. Here's a good read.... http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/rob-bradford/2016/06/20/exploring-how-red-sox-got-point-rusney-castil

Just saying what I read about Sox players not having any issues with his antics, because they knew he was really pissed at himself not them.

I'll take anyone but...

It's hard to make big blockbuster trades these days. Contenders are not looking to trade great players, because they want to win now. With parity the way it is these days, just about every team is in contention or feels like they might be in a year. Teams go from last to champions to last again (guess which team that was). The very few teams not in contention don't have excellent young pitchers under team control for 3+ years at a reasonable cost. To trade with a contender, you have to give ML talent in areas they need to get ML talent in areas they may have excess. That's not easy to match up with, because most teams do not have an excess of good young pitchers, except maybe the Mets. I think we'll end up having to settle for a 3/4 slot type starter and overpay for that. We may be able to lessen the overpay by taking on salary, either with the player we get or a tag along player like Mike Lowell was in the HanRam and Anibel Sanchez for Beckett deal. Maybe someone will become available at the deadline, but I'd hate to overpay for a 2 month rental or aging pitcher with 1.3 or 2.3 years of team control remaining, especially if they are being grossly overpaid.

I never want to see HanRam in LF again, but I'd prefer that to Brentz. I'd try Benintendi to Brentz as well, and argued on another thread that we should start trying to give Moncada reps at 3B and/or LF sooner rather than later.

xFIP vs ERA differentials with Buch 2007 -2.11 (ERA lower than xFIP) 2008 +2.51 2009 +0.17 2010 -1.74 2011 -0.80 2012 +0.13 2013 -1.67 2014 +1.30 2015 -0.04 2016 +0.47 His 5.36 xFIP is his worst of his career His second worst is a distant 4.43 in 2012, so I share your concern. His GB% (39%) is his worst since 2007 (38%). His HR/FB is worse than any year except 2007 and 2008. I'm not predicting greatness or even decency, but I am saying based on his ups and downs, there's hope for an upswing. The one bad thing about his trends is that he rarely has a bad first half and great second half or vice versa. He's usually bad all year or good all year (unless he gets hurt and it's just for a half year. Here's his last 5 SIERAs (note how each year is usually at least 50 points higher or lower than the previous or later year): 4.46> 3.59> 4.02> 3.35> 5.14

I certainly see your point. Buch looks awful and his peripherals do too. His xFIP is his worst ever, but my point is that his history has shown massive ups and downs, and there is a significant chance he still has an up spike at some point soon. His xFIP has also looked worse than his ERA in good times as well, but even his xFIP or FIP- and ERA- have been all ovber the map. His ERA- is actually the same as 2014 (133) and worse than his 2008 season (150). Here's alook at his ups and downs Year ERA- FIP- 2007 34 64 2008 150 114 2009 90 108 2010 54 88 2011 82 109 2012 107 115 2013 42 72 2014 133 108 2015 77 67 2016 133 139 Buch has been textbook yo-yo. I'm not projecting an up spike, but looking at his career trends, I certainly would not bet against one. I see no evidence he has "regained" his form, but he's look awful so many times over his career, then seemingly all at once, looks like superman, that I still have a glimmer of hope with him. I'm not sure how much longer we can put him out there in hope that glimmer turns to a bright flame, but as of right now, I don't see many other promising choices within our system.

So, you were okay with Bogey playing 3B in the World Series after just 10 games in the minors at 3B? You were okay with Swihart playing LF this year after 11 games in AAA in LF? You were okay with Betts sudden shift to OF? All worked out, but don't you think we may have gotten a little lucky? That we could have prepared for these situations that to me, all looked probable (not in hindsight either)? What if Bogey had made 4 errors in the playoffs and cost us a game or two? The Betts move couldn't have cost us anything, because as it turned out, it would not have mattered in 2015. Swihart has not cost us any games on defense in LF, so far. All looks okay in hindsight, but I think we should have planned better.

You may end up being right, but Buch has looked "done" about 5 times in his career but bounced back to do well and even very well several times. This may be the end of the yo-yo, but then again, it may not be.

I think Buch's history might project to him having a good half season starting just about now. I heard the same about Wake's "volatile" knuckleball for about 15 years. I'm not saying what you said doesn't make sense, but would you say the odds are better or worse than 50-50 that either Buch or Wright do well the second half of 2016? I'm thinking better. The odds of both doing well together is way less than 50-50.

Besides a major injury happening, let's look at the possible offensive positions of need for the remainder of this year and next year: DH: Papi's retirement is going to leave a gaping hole in our line-up- no ifs, ands or buts. Transitioning Moncada to DH is not a positional issue, so no worries here. I doubt Moncada becomes a better 3Bman than Shaw, a better LF'er than Young or a better 1Bman than HanRam over this summer, fall and winter, so he may end up right there- at DH or part-time DH anyways. Now, it gets more complicated, assuming one of these guys struggles to the point of needing to be benched (or gets hurt), who might be the better replacement in August or September or maybe even mid July? 1B: If HanRam reverts to 2015 numbers, who plays 1B? Shaw? Then who plays 3B?(see below) Nope Papi? With his feet and our need for him to stay healthy and in our line-up? Nope Holt? Nope Sam Travis? Perhaps. Moncada ??? 3B: If Shaw struggles or gets hurt, who plays 3B? Holt? Assuming he's over his concussion, notin pointed out that Holt at 3B was the reason we signed Pablo. Nope. Marrero? Talk about an offensive black hole. Nope. Hernandez? Probably my choice, but still a flawed choice. Perhaps Trade for someone? Perhaps Moncada??? LF: If the Swihart/Young platoon struggles, then who? Holt? Not FT, nope. Benintendi? Perhaps Add Craig or Castillo (if he's on the team) to the 40 man roster? nope. Moincada ??? We may be forced to add Benintendi or Moncada to the 25 man roster before their projected ETAs. Let's be prepared. We may be surprised how their offensive input could put us over the top. Let's hope Moncada's defensive deficiency doesn't cancel out the plus on offense. Maybe we can do something about that sooner rather than later. That's my position.

Great read. On Moncada, I do not think he's done very well at 2B defensively in the minors. Everyone speaks of his physical abilities and that he should end up being a good defender, if only because of his natural born abilities. I take that to mean, he's still basically learning 2B. I volunteer teaching ESL at a nearby title 1 middle school. My students come from a bilingual Elementary school where they are taught to first (try to) master their first language, so acquiring a second language becomes easier and more meaningful. While some evidence exists showing full immersion into the English language is preferable, I think the bulk of studies show the bilingual method shows better results, especially for children who may not have had very good education as smaller children and have serious gaps in their primary language (such as reading and writing deficiencies). I get the philosophy of learning your first language (or position in baseball) first. trying to master it first, before moving on to something different. However, it might take Moncada 1-2 years to master 2B defensively, and what good does that do us? I think Moncada is very very close to being MLB ready on offense. He might be better than Shaw, HanRam and Swihart right now on offense. We may need him as early as September of this year, especially if one of the 3 guys I just mentioned gets hurt or falls off a cliff (maybe sooner). I just don't see the harm in asking him to stay a little later after practice to take a few reps at 3B or 1B. I do not think that messes up a person's brain or confidence.

I never tried to claim this wasn't the "widely considered developmental best practice" and I agree with the practice and reasons for the practice, but there are exceptions to any rule or guideline, and I do think teams realize when a player is coming close to be major league ready and begin to transition them to the position of need. Getting the exact timing right is not easy, and injury or sudden decline by vets can sometimes force a team's hand, as with Bogey playing 3B and Swihart now in LF, but to me, both of those cases were foreseeable and discussed often over the prior months and even over a year. To me, I do not think asking a player to spend a few minutes a day over a few months learning a new position is going to disrupt there growth as a hitter or fielder at their natural position. It seemed like everybody knew there wasn't going to be enough PAs at the catcher position once Vazquez recovered from his injury, and this was discussed before Vaz got hurt as well. I do not think Vaz returned much quicker than anticipated, yet the Sox waited until he returned to begin giving Swihart lessens in LF. I cannot see the harm in giving Swihart some LF reps in SP'ing or over the winter prior to this season. Also, I'm not sure Swihart even fits the model, as he was in AAA in 2014, and spent half the season in MLB last year, so I think giving him reps in LF over the winter and spring wouldn't have even conflicted with standard acceptable practice. The Bogey case was more complex. Some of us, and wrongly so I might add, did not see Bogey as being likely to develop into a plus defensive SS. We saw Iggy as our future SS and Bogey as our future 3Bman, so much of the discussion about giving him reps at 3B were based in that aspect of the conversation. There were several scouting or ranking services that stated Bogey would likely "grow out of" SS and be moved to 3B. Some of us believed that and also felt it would be a good idea for him to at least learn how to play 3B for two reasons: 1) He had a better chance at being a plus defender at 3B than SS due to his skillset and projeced size. 2) We had little faith in Middy and thought Bogey would be needed at 3B sooner rather than later. Even Middy supporters should not have been shocked at his decline at 3B in 2013. Bogey ended up being rushed to learn 3B, and was in the bigs playing 3B after just 10 games at 3B in the minors. We were lucky he did well those few weeks, but I will add than many felt the move to 3B was what messed his bat up the following year. While I'm not sure anyone can prove that was the reason, certainly it can be viewed that way as evidence to avoid such moves until absolutely necessary. My contention is that the Swihart move was obvious and absolutely necessary before Vaz's injury even happened. That was a long time ago. Now, once Vaz got hurt, certainly Swihart needed to focus all his energy on catching (and hitting to a lesser extent) as he was rushed to the bigs before his" normal" time. However, once the season ended, my position is that he should have been given some instruction on playing LF and maybe even 1B or 3B as well. (At the time, we were not sure about Travis Shae, Pablo and Hanram.) The Betts move to OF looked effortless, but (IMO) that is more a tribute to Mookie's athletic skills and mindset than to Sox management's being proactive. I get that Mookie's rise was off-the-charts, and hard for anyone to project, so I give management some slack here, but I still think it was obvious he was never going to play 2B for the Sox. I can see keeping players at high skilled positions like SS and Catcher for as long as possible, especially if they are good there defensively, since it adds value to their stock, but I never saw that as being the case with Betts. He seemed to be better suited for CF or RF than 2B anyways, but that was just my opinion at the time. Anyways, it all worked out with him in the OF and Bogey at 3B in the fall of 2013. Swihart has looked pretty good in LF in the small sample size we've seen so far, but I still think these three should have been given a few more reps at their new position than they ended up getting. I'm not talking about major shifts in their development plans- just a few more reps than they got. (Swihart should have been given an OF'ers glove over a year ago.)

This pretty much sums it up... Papi:"One, I have already contacted the Players Association to confirm if this report is true. I have just been told that the report is true," Ortiz said in his statement. "Based on the way I have lived my life, I am surprised to learn I tested positive. Two, I will find out what I tested positive for. And, three, based on whatever I learn, I will share this information with my club and the public. You know me -- I will not hide and I will not make excuses." Terry Francona: "We admire his approach to this, which is, he's not going to run from it, he's not going to hide from it," Francona said after the game. "The first thing he needed to find out was whether he indeed tested positive or not, and he confirmed that this afternoon talking to the union. Now he needs to find out what he tested positive for. He needs some time to get some answers and then he's going to stand up and answer every question. I admire that courage."

He would be a nice addition, but I think his cost would lessen what we could do to build the pitching staff. Also, I thought you frowned on speaking in absolutes.

Perhaps more importantly, sample size numbers need to be kept in perspective as well.