moonslav59

A rental may not "gut the farm", but I'm not even for giving mid levels for a rental.

My roommate in college was a chess master. Maybe a game of "go fish"? LOL

Like when he wanted to demote Mookie last spring just before he caught on fire?

Just say where and when!

Agreed. Hence the need to eventually trade everyday prospects for pitching. Free agency is a mirage. I'd overpay, but only for a SP'er under 27 or 28 with 3 1/2+ years of inexpensive team control. I know that's asking for a lot, and acquiring any pitcher has some risk, but I don't see any other way to build up our staff.

The state of good pitching at the bottom of many teams' rotations is so poor that yes, even Buch may look appealing to some GM. Maybe they see something on film that says they can "fix him", maybe they just think a change of scenery may give him the jolt he needs or maybe they just think even as is, he's got a better chance of doing well than who they have now. Remember, when Buch is on, he's posted some of MLB's best stretches in over 45 years. Henry Owens can't say that. O'Sullivan either. Kelly, Johnson...

Fair enough. I wasn't on this site back then, but the same discussion took place where I was, and only 1 or two posters, including myself thought taking the option and trading him was the best idea. BTW, my second choice was take the option and pray.

That's right; you're still in a dream-like state.

Then, you woke up.

Not many agreed at the time. Most were for just not taking the option, which made no sense to me, as we surely could have traded him for a very good prospect or two. Almost all the rest were for taking the option and praying he stayed healthy all year.

Exactly the reason why we should have taken the extension and traded him for the best possible return, even if just for a very promising single- A pitcher. Let someone else take the "gamble".

Kimbrel's been a real savior, right? 32 IP for about $7M (half his salary)and just about all of our best mid-level prospects. 2 blown saves and 3 losses in 32 appearances is not bad, but it's not great either. One thing Billy Beane was right about was the over-valuing of closers in MLB.

Not to bars you frequent.

The Rays have new management. One never knows.

Some of those guys were extensions. I was trying to focus more on the idea of viewing big FA signings as the answer to a team's biggest problems. Also, to highlight just how hard it is to choose wisely when making a big signing. So many posters cry for the next big signing, then blame the GM for "choosing wrongly" when the odds are greatly stacked against "choosing wisely". It's like the movie War Games, where the best choice is "not to play the game". I'll take your choice of Cano. No doubt he's helped the M's greatly, but it's a 10 year deal on a team with a restricted budget. Plus, when you look at the early years of his deal, when the most was expected from him, he still has not given the M's the same WAR he had given the Yanks in the prior 4 years with the Yanks: 6.3 2010 5.1 2011 7.6 2012 5.8 2013 24.8/4 years= 6.2 avg with M's: 5.2 2014 2.1 2015 3.1 in 1/2 of 2016 10.4/ 2.5 yrs= 4.1 avg I think the M's expected better than a 4.1 WAR pace over his first 3 years. They expected better knowing they'd probably get worse down the back 4-5 years of his deal. Yeah, the value page on fangraph's might say he was "worth it", but can you honestly say he's produced like they hoped he would have? Like they expected him to produce? Right now, I can see the argument for saying he's been an overall "plus signing", but not a clear success, and by the end of the 10 years, my guess is the signing will be viewed as an overall negative. And, he's a guy we point to as an example of a signing working for the team! I know it's hard for you to do, but forget the fangraph value page for a moment, look over the list of just the top 60 or so FA signings on my list, and tell me how many were clear success signings and how many were plus signings based on team expectations and how much these players helped their team win a ring or significantly improve to the point where they got close to winning it all..

Actually, the Sox did plan on one SP'er not working out, and Wright filled that hole miraculously. The problem was our plan from our 7th starter down failed miserably. ERo'd injury and Kelly's implosion plus no great half year from Buch exposed the whole quantity vs quality plan for the bottom of our rotation. Yeah, maybe one out of 8 might turn out like Wright, but when you need 2 or 3 out of 8 mediocre-at-best SP'ers to perform well, your plan is flawed.

Forget WAR for a minute. Let's put it this way, in today's market, ff we could acquire a SP'er right now that would give us 18 starts (starting today) and give us a 3.26 ERA (130 ERA+) in 113 IP, how much would that be worth in dollars to you? No prospects needed. Just sign this guy knowing you get just 18 starts.

Sometimes it takes longer for a pitcher to comeback fro TJS. Sometimes pitchers never return to "form". Moore would be a big risk, but maybe a good risk.

Incorrect. The best "hindsight choice would have been to take the option and trade him. This was what several of us posters suggested last winter. If you see what some clowns with worse injury histories and performance records got paid, then Buch was tradeable and should have been.

I just hope it's not an overpay for a 2 month rental.

MLBTR reports... Matt Moore rumors build. Rays starter Matt Moore still hasn’t returned to his 2012-2013 form after having Tommy John surgery in 2014, but he’s attracting trade interest, with the Rangers one of several interested clubs. The Rays could be motivated to deal Moore in part because they could soon have a starting pitching surplus. I know this guy isn't the ideal pitcher to go after, but he's still young (just turned 27), and he is under team control for 3 1/3 years: 16:$5M, 17:$7M club option ($2.5M buyout), 18:$9M club option ($1M buyout), 19:$10M club option ($0.75M buyout) It's a big risk, no doubt, but maybe we should kick the tires.

I meant because of the score. It was a joke. However, I do avoid game threads due to usually watching the games on delay, so I can fast forward commercials. I'm also someone who gets perturbed over small sample size definitive judgments, and those threads are often loaded with them.

I can see why someone might want to avoid the game thread these days.

The other issue is about the quality of FA SP'ers this winter. To greatly improve our rotation, we almost have to do it by trade, We may end up having to trade for a high-priced pitcher, in order to lessen the prospect offer, so we'll know what we have to spend after we take care of our number one need: a solid SP'er. Starting Pitchers Brett Anderson Bronson Arroyo Brandon Beachy Andrew Cashner John Danks Jorge de la Rosa R.A. Dickey Scott Feldman Jaime Garcia Gio Gonzalez * Jeremy Guthrie Jason Hammel * Jeremy Hellickson Derek Holland * Daniel Hudson Edwin Jackson Cliff Lee Cory Luebke Kris Medlen * Matt Moore * Charlie Morton * Jon Niese * Ivan Nova Jake Peavy Edinson Volquez * Jered Weaver C.J. Wilson Travis Wood

The next time we think about filling a big need area with a big name FA, think about this.... Top Free Agent Signings by Dollar Amount from 1999 to 2016 1999: K Brown $105M/7, Piazza $91M/7 2000: K Griffey Jr. $117M/9 2001: ARod $252M/10, M Ramirez $160M/8, M Hampton $121M/8 2002: Giambi $120M/7, B Bonds $90M/5 2003: S Rolen $90M/8 2005: C Beltran $119M/7 2007: A Soriano $136M/8, B Zito $126M/7, J Schmidt $47M/3 2008: ARod $275M/10, C Zambrano $92M/5, T Hunter $90M/5, Suzuki $90M/5, Buehrle $56M/4 2009: Teixeira $180M/8, Sabathia $161M/7, M Young $80M/5 2010: M Holliday $120M/7 2011: Mauer $184M/8, Crawford $142M/7, Werth $126M/7, C Lee $120M/5, A Dunn $56M/4 2012: Pujols $240M/10, Fielder $214M/9. Kemp $160M/8, Sabathia $122M/5, J Reyes $106M/6, CJ Wilson $78M/5, Buehrle $56M/4, Danks $75M/5 2013: Greinke $147M/8 (opted out), J Hamilton $125M/5. Cespedes $75M/3E Jackson $52M/4, R Soriano $28M/2 2014: Cano $240M/10, Tanaka $155M/7, Ellsbury $153M/7, Choo $130M/7, Pence $90M/5, B McCann $85M/5 2015: Scherzer $210M/7, Lester $155M/6, E Andrus $120M/8, Sandoval $95M/5, H Ramirez $88M/4, E Sanatan $55M/4, $68M/5 VMart 2016: Price $217M/7, Greinke $207M/6, Heywood $184M/8, C Davis $161M/7, J Upton $133M/6, Cueto, $130M/6, Zimmerman $110M/5, Samardzja $90M/5 I may not be completely accurate on who was a FA or extension, and I may have missed some top free agent signings, but out of these 60 or so big FA signings, how many have been clear success stories? How many have been moderately successful? How many have been bad signings, and how many have been horrible signings? (Note: dollar amounts on signings in the early 2000’s and late 1900’s should reflect inflation in baseball salaries. Some players were left off this list due to that aspect.) Extensions: Stanton $325M/13, Miggy $248M/8, Votto $225M/10, Kershaw $215M/7, Jeter $189M/10, Verlander $180M/7, F Hernandez $175M/7, Strasburg $175M/7, Posey $167M/9, Tulowizki $158M/10, AGon $154M/7, Trout $145M/6, Hamels $144M/6, Helton $142M/9 (2003), D Wright $138M/8, Jo Santana $138M/6, F Freeman $135M/8, M Cain $128M/6, V Wells $126M/7, R Howard $125M/5, Pedroia $110M/8, R Braun $105M/5, Pujols $100M/7, C Lee $100M/6 (2007), R Zimmerman $100M/6, Longoria $100M/6, K seager $100M/7, Wainwright $98M/5