Well, 15 pounds is about the right pace to be at -45 by opening day next year.
15 pounds is significant even by itself. If ends up down 25-35 by opening day, it could make a big difference in his ability to win a spot on the team. I never wanted us to sign Pablo in the first place, but we have him now, and he's owed a boatload of money. I'd rather not piss it all away before knowing for sure if there is any redemption.
I'm not buying the argument that with Moncada, we don't need any help at 3B/1B/DH. Sure, Shaw and HanRam have looked okay this year and very good in stretches, but neither is a sure bet to be a plus next year and both show strong numerical signs pointing to platoon status.
2016 splits:
Player vs RHP/ vs LHPs
Ortiz 1.090/ .813
Shaw .806/ .634
HRam .696/ 1.091
Young .734/ 1.042
2016 vs RHPs/vs LHPs
Ortiz 1.044/ .744
Shaw .778/ .793
HRam .708/ .888
Young .635/ .988 (4th best in MLB)
Pablo .733/ .465
Swihart .727/ .673
(It's clear we have to find someone to help mitigate the loss of Papi's offense vs RHPs. While Pablo is no where near a replacement for papi, he may be better vs RHPs than some of our other options- namely HanRam and Young.
Papi is retiring, yes. Adding Beni and Moncada does cause a squeeze on our bench, but it's also not a certainty that Moncada will start the year on the big club, and there's still a chance Beni could struggle enough to need some time at AAA to re-adjust (doubtful, but possible). Exceptional play by Beni in LF would could essentially cause the need to play Young at DH vs LHPs. This would further squeeze the 3b/1B/DH openings. We can safely count Travis out of the picture untila t least mid season 2017, if then. I doubt Swihart has a chance to squeeze anybody out of a 25 man roster spot until May or june of 2017 at the earliest, so we are left with this:
LF: Beni, Young (Swihart/Holt)
3B: Shaw, Moncada, Pablo (Hernandez/Holt)
1B: HanRam, Shaw (Pablo/Holt/Travis/Swihart?)
DH: Young/Pablo/Hanram (Moncada/Swihart)
We may start with Shaw at 3B, HanRam at 1B and maybe Pablo at DH vs RHPs and Young vs LHPs. If Pablo can field well, like he used to do, we could see Pablo at 3B vs RHPs/Shaw vs LHPs. We could see Shaw at 1B vs RHPs and HanRam vs LHPs and Hanram at DH vs RHPs with Young there vs lefties. Wec ould see hanRam sit vs some or many RHPs, or Shaw sit vs some or many LHPs, which could allow Moncada to squeeze into the picture or Pablo to play vs LHPs (doubtful).
Let's say Moncada wins a FT role, maybe we could see this:
POS vs RHP/vs LHP
3B: Moncada
1B: Shaw/Ram
DH: Pablo/Young
Maybe Moncada plays some DH, if he struggles in the field. Moncada also has hit RHPs 200-300 OPS points better than lefties, so maybe he plays vs righties, and Shaw plays 3B vs LHPs, so Hanram can play FT at 1B.
There's lots of scenarios, but I wouldn't count Pablo out of a role vs RHPs next year, especially if it takes Moncada a while to master the 3B position.