moonslav59

I wouldn't say useless. If some one has a very low or high BAbip without LD% or hard hit% that supports it. Then one can say it's luck- good or bad.

1) I'm not going to judge Kimbrel based on a small sample size or his adjustment period upon returning from his injury. 2) I think he still projects to be one of the best closers in MLB over the next 2.3 years. 3) I still think it was stupid to trade top prospects for any closer, let alone one making near FA money. I'm not gloating. I'm not saying I was right based on Kimbrel's performance. I'm just saying the closer position is too fickle. The innings are very important, but it's still only 45-65 IP a season. You don't trade top prospects for a player making FA money- period. Then, if you do, it better be a SP'er or stud everyday player--not a closer! I hope he turns it around, because I don't trust Ziegler, Taz or anyone else long term.

soxprospects.com shows 12 pitchers... 5 starters plus... RH Craig Kimbrel RH Brad Ziegler RH Junichi Tazawa RH Matt Barnes LH Robbie Ross LH Fernando Abad RH Clay Buchholz Sub Holaday for Hanigan and Holt for Hernandez and you got our 25.

He's got a worse ERA at SD (2 starts there) than overall. He's better in LA (1 start). He has the 5th best ERA- (which takes park size and other factors into consideration) over the last 5 years. Over the past 5 seasons, only 32 pitchers have pitched over 800 IP: Cueto ranks... 22nd in FB% at 32% 10th best in HR/FB (9.6%) 11th best in GB% (47%) 11th best in K-BB% at 16% 5th best in WHIP at 1.08 2nd best in lowest hard balls hit% at 26%. I had worries about his mechanics and injury projection, but he has not been known as a FB pitcher.

Many times BAbip coincides with LD% and GB%. It's not always "luck" when a hitter's BAbip goes up or down, although it could just be a hot streak or slump and not a true representation of a players batting skill decline or incline overall.

I always argued his highest value is as a catcher, but I think that value should be used in trade. Maybe not now, due to the injury, but once he shows he's healthy, I'd explore trading him. I'm too high on Vazquez to think Swihart will ever pass him. Leon's presence makes trading Swi palatable.

Exactly. He may have done even worse had we waited 1-2 years more. Players go into slumps. Players struggle to adjust to new environment. You try to gauge a players fortitude to adjust and see how he adjusted to previous promotions, but nobody ever truly knows how a player will adjust to the move to the ML level, or if the player just got lucky or unlucky by having a hot streak or cold streak occur just at the time of promotion.

Straw man: "A straw man is a common form of argument and is an informal fallacy based on giving the impression of refuting an opponent's argument, while actually refuting an argument that was not advanced by that opponent". 1) I have not said "I was right". I even went out of my way saying it's nearly impossible to judge who is right or wrong on "readiness", because the sample sizes used to judge a player;'s adjustment period is both too small and within a context of speculation about what might have happened if we waited longer or shorter to call them up. 2) Of course, there is gray area here, but my position was that I felt he "was Ml ready or very close to ML eady, and the second Sox management felt he was ready, we should call him up." You have misrepresented my position and that is "strawman" to the tee. 3) I have never said anything about our poor LF play not being a factor. I wouldn't call it "desperation" to try and fill our biggest weakness with a promising "ready" or "extremely near ready" LF'er within our system. That is a separate argument that I have not touched on much, so again, you are constructing a false position I have not argued. 4) You guys would have been fine had he been called up in September. You really think 3-4 weeks makes that much of a difference? Either he's ready or he's not. Do GMs sometimes call up players a little earlier than they might have otherwise chosen to do out of need? Of course they do! I have never argued otherwise. Whether it's called "desperation" of not is something to be debated, but that depends on how close you or I think Beni was to being "ready". Nobody is right or wrong here, and I never said I was right about whether he is truly ready or not. I said I wanted him called up the second Sox management determined he was ready. I guess they felt he was ready enough, because he's here now. That doesn't make me right, but it doesn't make you right either, and no tiny sample size is going to prove anything either. I said I was not "gloating, because Beni could go o for 22". I'm sure if he does, you'd claim you were right. Therein, IMO, lies the difference between you and me.

Based on just the numbers (below) alone, I see a few things vs LHPs: 1) Put pride aside and demote Papi to at least the 5 slot vs LHPs. (6th may be too high based on the numbers, but with pitching changes, 5th is fine.) 2) Young is 1st in SLG and 2nd in OBP. He needs to be slotted 1-4. 3) JBj has a great OBP but loses power vs LHP: should bat him 1/2 slots. 4) Pedey has a nice OBP, so bat him 1/2, but with Bogey 1 and JBJ 1/2, JBJ has more power vs LHPs, so JBJ goes 3/4. 5) Bogey has the best OBP, so bat him 1st. He does have the 5th best power too, but with nobody having a high OBP, Boegey's .411 mark makes him our #1. 6) Betts haS a nice SLG but not OBP v LHPs. 6) HanRam has a nice SLG vs LHPs, so bat him 4 or 5 (maybe 6). Here's what the numbers suggest: 1) Bogey 2) Pedey 3) JBJ 4) Young 5) HanRam 6) Ortiz (flipping 5 and 6 is fine with me) 7) Betts 8) Holt 9) Leon/Swi/Vaz (Note: this is not my suggested line-up. It is just what I feel the numbers show. I would never bat Betts 7th. Papi 6th my be taken the wrong way, so 5th is probably right. Since Young is clearly our best hitter, I think Pedey or JBJ need to be dropped to move Betts and Papi up. Maybe something like this: 1) Bogey 2) JBJ 3) Young 4) Betts 5) Papi 6) hanRam 7) Pedey 8) Holt 9) Leon OBP vs LHP (367 players with 80+ PAs vs LHPs) 17 Bogey .411 26 Young .398 (must find a slot for him vs LHPs) 67 JBJ .370 (should bat 1/2 vs LHPs- see low SLG vs LHPs) 70 Holt .369 (How to fit him in?) 81 Pedey .361 (almost equal to RHPs) 115 Castillo .347 128 Swihart .344 (way better than vs RHPs) 129 Ramirez .343 (same as Swihart) 146 Betts .337 (too low to lead off?) 154 Leon .335 (just barely qualified w 83 PAs) 216 Hill .315 (What did we see in him?) 246 Ortiz .302 (Pride aside- move him down vs LHPs) 302 Shaw .295 (Non-qualifiers: Rutledge .400, Vazquez .371 and Leon .333) SLG vs LHP 13 Young .590 (Auto line-up fill vs LHPs) 53 Ramirez .510 (Here is his only value to us.) 58 Betts .504 (see low OBP- move to 3/4 slot v LHPs.) 61 Shaw .503 (Top 25%) 110 Bogey .464 112 Castillo .461 (Does he have a future as a platoon?) 122 Leon .452 124 JBJ .451 (much lower power vs LHPs) 155 Ortiz .430 (just avg power vs LHPs) 192 Pedey .406 277 Holt .353 281 Hill .352 (Tell me again, why we got this guy.) 306 Swihart .329 (need work here) 366 Sandy .231 (sad) (Non-qualifiers: Leon .452, Vazquez .400 and Rutledge .395)

Based on just the numbers (below) alone, I see a few things vs RHPs: 1) Papi is a god and must bat 3 or 4. 2) Pedey's OBP is so much better than anyone else's that he must bat 1-2. (based on his running skills, I'd say 2nd.) *** To me, 1 and 2 are not really even debatable depending on Beni and Moncada's readiness and ML-shown performance skills 3) With Betts, Bogey and JBJ almost all with identical OBPs, speed and SLG should determine their slots. Since JBJ is better, he goes 3 or 4. Since Betts is fastest but also 3rd best slugging, and Bogey has low SLG, I'd go Bogey 1st/Betts 5th. I'd be okay with Betts 3rd and JBJ 5th. 4) Shaw is way better than HanRam vs RHPs, so he goes 6th and HanRam, if not platooned (yes, he's that bad) is slotted lower. 5) Since Beni and Moncada are largely unknowns, I left them out for now. I'm not saying this is what I suggest- only what I FEEL the numbers show: vs RHPs 1) Bogey 2) Pedey 3) JBJ or Betts 4) Ortiz 5) Betts or JBJ 6) Shaw 7) Holt (Beni) 8) HanRam (Pablo, if healthy) 9) Swihart/Leon OBP vs RHPs (379 players with 200+ PAs vs RHPs) 7 Ortiz .409 44 Pedey .363 82 JBJ .349 85 Betts .348 90 Bogey .347 (top 25%) 119 Shaw .337 132 Holt .335 164 Hill .325 (both teams) 174 Swihart .323 211 Sandy .314 226 Ramirez .310 323 Hanigan .285 362 Young .264 (Should never start vs a RHP) 367 Castillo .259 (Non-qualifiers: Leon .313 and Vazquez .255) SLG vs RHP 1 Ortiz .641 23 JBJ .534 (huge split difference) 39 Betts .509 (almost equal to LHPs) 101 Shaw .457 107 Pedey .456 (reverse split here) 139 Bogey .432 (not a 3 hitter SLG% here) 169 Sandy .419 (if he makes it on the 25, he might platoon at best) 212 Ramirez .405 (Please move down vs RHP already!) 215 Swihart .404 246 Holt .387 251 Hill .384 353 Castillo .313 373 Hanigan .281 (Non-qualifier: Leon .370 and Vazquez .284)

For years I kept waiting and projecting Pedey to have a season close to his earlier career "norm". Injuries and struggles kept him doing oaky, but really not at the level he was at when he had just about 5 straight seasons over .820 with GG defense and decent base-running. He's been around .795-.800 in 3 of the last 4 years, which is damn good for a 2Bman, and he's only at .806 now, but I like what I have seen this year too.

Yes, we went through this the last time you constructed a false narrative by misrepresenting my position and then arguing against a "strawman" and acting like he was me.

I thought it would be September too, mostly due to team control years issues. It's a thin line on determining who is "ready" or :not ready". It seems silly to me that just a few more days can determine readiness. Certainly the poor play of our LF'ers might have been a significant factor, but I am pretty certain, Sox management felt Beni was "ready" or close enough to be ready that it was worth calling him up. The point is, Sox management felt he was ready or "close enough" (very close), which was the position I held. I'm not big into the whole "don't hurt a young kid's fragile ego" argument for most prospects, and I also don't buy into determining whether someone was called up to early or not based on a tiny sample size out of the gate. Players struggle and slump all the time--maybe for no reason at all. Players take time to adjust to a new level no matter what age or experience level they may be. I'm not saying that more experience in the minors does not help most players with adjusting, but there are times when someone comes along that just defies the norm. Fred Lynn was called up the year after he was drafted. Granted, countless examples are out there of players who did not adjust quickly enough after short stints in the minors, and I'm not gloating over Beni's very tiny sample size of success. He could easily go o for his next 22. I won't judge the success or failure of this move on small sample sizes. I liked the move. I felt Beni was "close enough" for a while, and I trust Sox management to know when ready is "ready".

Once again, you are constructing a strawman. It seems to be a habit of yours. I never said I wanted him called up. I said, "the second Sox management determined he is ready, then call him up." I never pretended to know more than Sox management, or said they were wrong not calling him up earlier, so stop misrepresenting my position.

2015-2016 MLB Rankings OBP vs RHPs (379 players with 200+ PAs vs RHPs) 7 Ortiz .409 44 Pedey .363 82 JBJ .349 85 Betts .348 90 Bogey .347 (top 25%) 119 Shaw .337 132 Holt .335 164 Hill .325 (both teams) 174 Swihart .323 211 Sandy .314 226 Ramirez .310 301 Shaw .293 (but has high SLG) 323 Hanigan .285 362 Young .264 (Should never start vs a RHP) 367 Castillo .259 (Non-qualifiers: Leon .313 and Vazquez .255) SLG vs RHP 1 Ortiz .641 23 JBJ .534 (huge split difference) 39 Betts .509 (almost equal to LHPs) 101 Shaw .457 107 Pedey .456 (reverse split here) 139 Bogey .432 (not a 3 hitter SLG% here) 169 Sandy .419 (if he makes it on the 25, he might platoon at best) 212 Ramirez .405 (Please move down vs RHP already!) 215 Swihart .404 246 Holt .387 251 Hill .384 353 Castillo .313 373 Hanigan .281 (Non-qualifier: Leon .370 and Vazquez .284) OBP vs LHP (367 players with 80+ PAs vs LHPs) 17 Bogey .411 26 Young .398 (must find a slot for him vs LHPs) 67 JBJ .370 (should bat 1/2 vs LHPs- see low SLG vs LHPs) 70 Holt .369 (How to fit him in?) 81 Pedey .361 (almost equal to RHPs) 115 Castillo .347 128 Swihart .344 (way better than vs RHPs) 129 Ramirez .343 (same as Swihart) 146 Betts .337 (too low to lead off?) 154 Leon .335 (just barely qualified w 83 PAs) 216 Hill .315 (What did we see in him?) 246 Ortiz .302 (Pride aside- move him down vs LHPs) (Non-qualifiers: Rutledge .400, Vazquez .371 and Leon .333) SLG vs LHP 13 Young .590 (Auto line-up fill vs LHPs) 53 Ramirez .510 (Here is his only value to us.) 58 Betts .504 (see low OBP- move to 3/4 slot v LHPs.) 61 Shaw .503 (Top 25%) 110 Bogey .464 112 Castillo .461 (Does he have a future as a platoon?) 122 Leon .452 124 JBJ .451 (much lower power vs LHPs) 155 Ortiz .430 (just avg power vs LHPs) 192 Pedey .406 277 Holt .353 281 Hill .352 (Tell me again, why we got this guy.) 306 Swihart .329 (need work here) 366 Sandy .231 (sad) (Non-qualifiers: Leon .452, Vazquez .400 and Rutledge .395)

No, I don't. Betts is hot as hell and is getting on base a lot. I was responding to the idea of putting Pedey first and Bogey second. If Betts is put third, I don't want Pedey clogging the base paths up first. I actually like Pedey 5th or 6th despite the high OBP.

Nobody claims to be perfect, but I don't disagree that Pedey is in the bottom tier of base runners. He's gutsy. His head is in the game, but he's much slower now.

Wow Nick. You got your juices flowing this morning. I agree though. They act like we were coming up with our opinions based on hopes and dreams of Fred Lynn revisited. We were only going off what we read and heard from "real experts": Sox personnel.

Exactly. My position was that I thought Beni was ready or very close to ready and "should be called up the second Sox management thinks he's ML ready".

You like to bring up examples to show your position is right. Well, one never knows, if bringing someone up too early damages anything. We don't even know if a player does badly out of the gate, because he was brought up too early or not. They could have waited 4 more years with Conforto, and he could have struggles adjusting to the majors. You can bet, if Beni was oh for 16 right now, we'd be hearing the wrath of Khan right now. Here's an example: Fred Lynn.

Well said. It's fuuny that they called us "silly" and :ridiculous" for daring to just suggest we think about going against "protocol". When a kid is ready or very close to ready, you speed up the process to get him to MLB. It's not as complicated as it seams. Sure, you do this for every kid who gets hot in the minors, but you listen to your experts (scouts/talent evaluaters) and you make adjustments to traditional time tables and protocol. It's the same with Moncada. I was nearly tied to a tree and executed for just suggesting we ought to think about giving him some reps (not moving him- just some reps in practice) at 3B. Then, when Sox management did just that at about the exact time I suggested it should happen, some posters still called me and the idea "silly", "ridiculous", "desperate" and "dangerous".

He's the baseball equivalent of a gym rat. I think he's called a 4 tool player (not 5) due to just an average arm.

Prince Fielder's career is over. Word is he is all done due to medical issues. He is owed $24M a year until 2020. $9M from Rangers $9M from insurance $6M from Tigers .

I hope he recovers quickly and fully. With Beni off to a nice start, LF might be blocked. One wonders about his chances going back to catching. His trade chances may be on hold, until he comes back healthy.

From MLBTR By Steve Adams | August 9, 2016 at 10:42pm CDT Red Sox catcher/outfielder Blake Swihart will undergo ankle surgery in the coming days, manager John Farrell told reporters following tonight’s game against the Yankees (Twitter link via Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald). The operation figures to end Swihart’s sophomore season with just 19 games and 74 plate appearances in the books at the big league level this year. Early on, the 24-year-old former top prospect had a chance to cement himself behind the plate for the Sox but eventually found himself optioned back to Triple-A to work on his defense. Upon his return to the Majors he played exclusively in left field prior to suffering a severe high ankle sprain that ultimately led to the upcoming operation. Swihart’s season will conclude with a .258/.365/.355 batting line. He collected three extra-base hits — bizarrely, all triples — and will head into the offseason with a cumulative .271/.321/.386 slash in 383 Major League plate appearances across 103 big league games. While Swihart was near-universally considered one of the game’s top 20 prospects prior to the 2015 season, he’s yet to tap into the potential that made him such a coveted component of the Boston farm system. With both Swihart and Christian Vazquez failing to definitively seize the catching job in Boston — Sandy Leon and Bryan Holaday are currently splitting catching duties for the Sox, with Ryan Hanigan on the disabled list — the long-term outlook behind the plate in Boston remains somewhat muddled. Swihart has spent the bulk of the 2016 season either in the Majors or on the Major League disabled list and as such will accrue more than enough service time to take him past one full year of service. He’ll still have a minor league option remaining next season, so the Sox could give him further time to work on his game in the minors if he doesn’t grab hold of a roster spot in Spring Training. Boston controls Swihart through at least the 2021 season, and depending on how his time is divided between the Majors and minors next season, he could end up in Super Two territory, making him arbitration eligible four times.