moonslav59

Some big upsets in college football. #10 MIA beat #2 Ohio St. (Gotts love it!) #6 Ole Miss upset #3 Georgia #5 Oregon with a mild upset of #4 Texas Tech #1 Indiana killed #9 Alabama, which was a little surprising. (Looks like maybe MIA deserved their slot but maybe not ALA.) Maybe the SEC is not as good as people think as other SEC teams lost, too: TXA&M to MIA LSU to HOU TN to ILL Vandy to IA The only SEC teams to win were ones that beat another SEC team! Their record is 1-6 with Ole Miss still alive. ______________________ JAN 8 6 Ole Miss v 10 Miami JAN 9 1 Indiana v 5 Oregon GO Hoosiers!!!!

Could we see Contreras and his decent OBP bat second? 1. L Anthony LF 2. R Contreras 1B 3. L Duran DH 4. R Story SS 5. L Abreu RF 6. L Mayer 3B 7. R Narvaez C/ R Romy 2B 8. L DHam 2B/ R Narvaez C 9. R Rafaela C _________________ If we trade Duran, maybe Yoshida/Romy up 2nd? 1. L Anthony LF 2. L Yoshida DH/R Romy 2B 3. R Contreras 1B 4. L Abreu RF 5. R Story SS 6. L Mayer 3B/R Narvaez C 7. R Narvaez C/L Mayer 3B 8. L DHam 2B/ R Campbell DH 9. R Rafaela CF _______________________ I hope we add a 2B/3Bman and don't have to do this.

When you look at the MLB everyday player roster and team control. There are no positions beyond 3B or 2B that needs filling. Yoshida (DH) is gone after 2027. Story (SS) & Contreras (1B) have an option year for 2028. Duran (LF) Romy (2B/1B) Wong (C) and Casas (DH/1B) are gone after 2029. That's a pretty amazing set-up, and it positions us well, when you consider our everyday farm strength, especially near MLB ready is not that strong. Here is how it may play out: 3B/2B (if we fill for 2026 w a 1 yr guy) Mayer or Romy (Eaton, Sogard, Arias, Romero) DH (Yoshida gone) after 2027: Duran/Campbell/Casas SS (Story gone) after 2027 or 2028: Mayer/Arias 1B (Contreras gone) after '27 or '28: Casas/Romy/Campbell LF (Duran gone) after 2028: We have 3 OF'ers + Campbell C (Wong gone) after 2028: We have Jo Garcia/Guzman/ J Rodriguez (Heyman/Primera) It doesn't look so bad for the short or long term with the everyday roster. _________________________ The pitching situation looks like it could get better as time goes by, but we do lose some key pen pieces soon. After... 2026 Whitlock >> converted SP or Sandlin/Mullins/Paez Sandoval>> Houck/Tolle/Early/Harrison/Bennett 2027: Gray (option)>> Tolle/Early/Harrison/Bennett Chapman (option)>> Slaten/Weissert move up? Houck & Oviedo>> see Gray Hicks (thank you)>> see Chapman 2028 Crawford>> Valera/Holobetz/Witherspoon/Phillips/Eyanson

What's the chance one from Bleis, Cespedes or Castro turn things around. My guess is the chanc etwo do is near zero.

Just accommodate my wish for KMarte, Suarez or Okamoto and maybe a #2 SP.

At 5 or more years, for sure. (Maybe 4, too) Same with Bichette at 5 or 6..

I thought he said he'd be shutting down talks soon, if nothing happens

We might be at 4, but if we need to go 5, we are out, IMO.

I agree and feel like 5 is too much for Bichette, despite his age. Just get Suarez for 2 or Okamoto for 3. If we trade an OF'er than go OF + #4/5 SP for a #2 SP.

Either or both could have great or even monster seasons. Both could also never earn a promotion in 2026. To a larger extent, Mayer is a wild card, because he will likely be handed a starting position on opening day.

He can try all he wants, but if he's not allowed to or wont go 5+ years, it probably won't matter. If someone offers $150M/4, is it worth offering him $135-140M/4? (Brez may not even go 4 years, anyway.)

We did lose Bregman, Gio, Ref, Lowe and Wilson to free agency, and he did trade Devers midseason. Brez has been active with trades, but yes, most were fringy types: Dobbins, Fitts & Perales Bernardino, Murphy & Guerrero Clarke, Travies & Fajardo Aita & Hoppe Jh Garcia, Grissom & Riemer

Yes. With KMarte at 2B, we can handle a .785 low power DH. We can handle the drop from Bregman to mayer/Romy at 3B. The gain at 1B with Contreras, who has some power, should even things out enough that hoping for improvement from our younger players is a hope and not an essential need.

Sale also missed the ends of 2024 and 2025 with ATL, too. Still, Grissom was a total bust.

Yes, but the point was we have better depth than almost every other team, AND our top 3 match up pretty well with almost every other team. Out top 3 seem pretty reliable, when compared to TOR and NYY, but yes, anything can happen. Last year, we lost #2 Houck, and arguably our #4 Crawford & #5 Sandoval for just about the full season. Later, we lost Dobbins and in the playoffs we lost just about everyone not named Crochet.

DHam needs to get on base more than 28-30% for his speed to make a big difference. In 550 career PAs, he has 41 BBs and 73 singles. He gets to 1B in 21 % of his PAs (114/550.)

Agreed, and if you add Romy as a platoon with DHam with Eaton maybe platooning with Mayer at 3B, the differential is even less. I'm thinking Suarez or Okamoto are probably the most realistic higher impact additions.

I'm not happy, but we also have Contreras. BTW, fWAR 2024-2025: #10. Sonny Gray 7.1 (Crochet is #3.) Gray is #4 from '23-'25. That's no joke. ________________ BTW, 2023-2025 OPS .817 Contreras (#32) 1000+ PAs. Only 26 batters have more PAs and a higher OPS than Willson 38 Duran .810 42 Tatis .803 46. Bregman .796 59. Bichette .778

Who has the highest odds of being on the IL for most of 2026 of in OCT '26? 1.Bieber 2. Rodon 3. Cole

You can't just throw out projected fWAR, or for that matter 2024 and 2025's fWAR. You acknowledged before not knowing Rodon was going to start the year on the IL, and now you are b ack to expecting greatness from him. Cole and Bieber are question marks, too. Crochet >>> Fried & Cease (all seem durable and reliable. Fried turns 32 soon) Gray => Cole & Gausman (Most likely to be on the IL? Cole) Bello <= Rodon & Bieber but I have more faith in Bello not on the IL in OCT than these two. I'll take Schlitter and the Jays' 4 & 5s over BOS, but in the playoffs, they don't matter as much. I just don't see the top 3 the way you do. If all are 100% and on their game, maybe. Let's assume all these pitchers match their highest fWAR in the last 4 years: 3.0+ fWAR seasons 6.2 Rodon '22, 3.2 '25 5.7 Crochet '25, 4.6 '24 5.5 Gausman '22, 5.3 '23, 4.1 '25, 3.0 '25 5.4 Gray '23, 3.8 '24, 3.6 '25 5.3 Cole '23, 3.4 '22 4.9 Fried '22, 4.8 '25, 3.4 '24 4.8 Bieber '22 4.7 Cease '24, 4.4 '22, 3.6 '23 3.7 Sandoval '22 _______________ Now, look at 3.6+ seasons last 3 seasons: 6.2 Rodon '22 5.7 Crochet '25, 4.6 '24 5.5 Gausman '22, 5.3 '23, 4.1 '25 5.4 Gray '23, 3.8 '24, 3.6 '25 5.3 Cole '23 4.9 Fried '22, 4.8 '25 4.8 Bieber '22 4.7 Cease '24, 4.4 '22, 3.6 '23 3.7 Sandoval '22 The Sox have 2 two-time pitchers, TOR 2 and NYY 1. All have 3 pitchers on the list. The Sox have 2 of the top 3 single season events. _____________________ Now, last 3 seasons only: 5.7 Crochet '25, 4.6 '24 5.4 Gray '23, 3.8 '24, 3.6 '25 5.3 Gausman '23, 4.1 '25 5.3 Cole '23 4.8 Fried '25 4.7 Cease '24 The Sox have the top 2 and 2 two timers. ___________________ Last 2 years: 5.7 Crochet '25, 4.6 '24 4.8 Fried '25 4.7 Cease '24 4.1 Gausman '25 3.8 Gray '24, 3.6 '25 BOS & TOR both have 2 of the top 5, but BOS has the only pitchers with 2 two timers. I'm not sure why you project two NYY and two TOR pitchers will do better than Crochet and Gray. Sure, they can, but Cole hasn't been great is a while. BOS: One old Yes, Gray is 36 but has aged well. (5.4>3.8>3.6) Crochet is just entering prime: 4.6 >5.7 and age 26. Bello is entering prime, too: 1.6>2.0>1.9 (3 yr total beats Rodon's) ____________________ TOR: One old and one not good for 3 years Gausman will be 35 and is also aging well: 5.3>3.0>4,1 (very similar to Gray.) Cease is 30: 3.6>4.7>3.4 could bounce back at 30. Bieber turns 31 midseason and hasn't had a great year since 2022 (4.8) His 3 year trend: 2.1>0.8>0.3. Hell, Buehler did better than that! _____________________ NYY: all 32 or older Fried is 32 and is trending well: 1.9>3.4>4.8 Rodon is 33: -0.1>1.6>3.2 (will be on IL) Cole is 35 and is coming off a major injury: 5.3>1.8> n/a '25 ________________________ Nobody has a slam dunk better 3, but I think BOS's matches up pretty well.

$18M is a lot for an almost total unknown. 5-11 and 155 is not the Brez prototype pitcher, anyway.

Of course nothing is certain. Some liked Buehler way better than adds like Kluber, Richards and Wacha, and he cost way more than they did. Getting better on paper is just that: paper, but it's what GMs have to do or try to do. I have to say Gray + Oviedo looks way more likely to have a good to great 2026 seasons than Buehler + Sandoval, Gio + Fitts, Wacha+Hill, Paxton + Kluber and Richards + Perez did. What ends up happening is another story. I'd have preferred Alonso to Contreras, and my hope was that the money saved would allow us to improve somewhere else, instead. (The Gray money equals Buehler, so that slot doesn't count, to me.) It comes down to how we address 3B or 2B. I agree, bringing Bregman back looks like a sideways move that could go worse or less likely- better than 2025. He would be an improvement over DHam, for sure, unless he gets hurt. I think we should expect... C: slight improvement as Narvaez may step back a little on O but improve on D and Wong cant do much worse on O. (Contreras adds some very nice depth) 1B- major improvement. 2B- looks the same for now (assuming Mayer at 3B) SS- might expect regression, here. 3B- looks like a major regression from Breggie to Mayer LF- same CF- same RF- same DH- worse, as we lost Devers & Ref. SP- slightly better RP- worse w/o Bernardino, Wilson, Murphy and others. As of now, we are not "better."

I doubt STL takes Crawford and DHam for Donovan. I think Crawford is over-rated. They might take Crawford, Sandlin & DHam, but that's three 40 man players for one. We'd likely have to give up a prospect instead of Sandlin (Mullins?) or DHam (Cespedes, Bleis or Castro?)

I'm not as high on Sonny Gray as many are, and I do think fangraphs projects him too highly, but I think you are undervaluing him and overvaluing NYY and TOR. Cole is a huge question mark and so are Cease, Bieber, Ponce and Yesavage. Rodon starts the season on the IL. How has that worked for Sox pitchers? Why are Yankee pitchers different? Fangraphs ranks the Yankee SP'ers at #14, and they notoriously overvalue Yankee players. The Jays beat the NYY at all 5 SP slots in projected fWAR! #1: 3.8 Cease (187 IP) 3.6 Fried (189 IP) #2: 2.8 Gausman (185) 2.2 Rodon (162) #3: 2.5 Bieber (153) 1.9 Cole (131) #4 2.2 Ponce (139) 1.8 Schlitter (148) #5: 2.1 Yesavage (137) 1.5 Warren (121) Sox: 5.7 Crochet blows TOR and NYY away by about 2 each! 3.9 Gray- take 1 away and he still beats TOR and NYY! 2.0 Bello is 0.5 below Bieber but beats Cole. 1.6 Sandoval & 1.1 Crawford are the worst of the 3, but Early, Tolle and Harrison total 2.2 in just 144 IP. TOR's #6-8 total 1.5 in 129 IP NYY's #6-8 toal 1.6 in 152 IP. Neither is better at the top or with depth. Top 3: 11.6 BOS, 9.1 TOR, 7.7 NYY (way behind) #4-6: 5.3 TOR, 4.3 NYY, 3.7 BOS (yes, way behind, but look below) #7-9: 1.8 BOS in 125 IP, 0.8 NYY in 63 IP, 0.6 TOR in 46 IP

Going by fangraphs projections for the top 10 rotations in MLB by fWAR projections: BOS: 5.7, 3.9, 2.0, 1.6, 1.1 (1.0, 0.7, 0.6, 0.5) 2nd Highest fWAR 1-3 at 11.6 and a decent 4-8 at 5.4) LAD: 3.6, 3.3, 3.1, 2.6, 1.7 (1.7, 0.4, 0.3) Top 3: 10.0 & 5.7 for #4-8. They are one of the 2-3 that rival the Sox in TOTRSP and depth. DET: 5.9, 2.6, 2.3, 2.1, 1.2 (1.1, 0.5, 0.3) Top 3: 10.8 is closest to the Sox and 5.3 for 4-8, which beats the Sox depth. They are the second team that rivals the Sox in top 3 AND 4-8 starters. PHI: 4.8, 3.5, 3.0, 3.0, 0.8 (0.5, 0.1, 0.1) Only team with 4 over 3.0, but close to the worst 5-8 SP'ers) They don't have both. Nope. TOR: 3.8, 2.8, 2.5, 2.2, 2.1 (1.0, 0.4, 0.1) Top 3: 9.1 & 5.8. They have better 4-6 SP'ers and 4-8 but not 1-3. Nope. PIT: 5.8, 2.3, 1.9, 1.6, 1.5 (1.2, 0.6, 0.1) Nope. ATL: 4.2, 3.0, 2.7, 1..6, 1.3 (0.8, 0.5, 0.3) Nope. CIN: 3.6, 2.6, 2.4, 2.3, 2.0 (0.7, 0.2, 0,2) Nice having all 5 over 2.0 but worse in top 3 and way worse in depth. Nope. SEA: 3.3, 3.2, 3.2, 2.4, 1.4 (0.2, 0.2, 0.1) Nice balanced top 3 and a decent 3-4 (Top 3 =13.5 is tops, but their 5-8 is horrific. 4-8=4.3 is kinda close to BOS, so one could call them the 3rd team that rivals the Sox, but I would not call 0.2, 0.2 and 0.1 decent depth. NOPE KCR: 4.2, 2.4, 2.2, 1.9, 1.7 (0.6, 0.3, 0.3) Nope I'm sticking to my position that only 2-3 team rival our top of rotation value AND our SP'er depth. 5.7 Crochet 3rd best in MLB 3.9 Gray #9 in MLB 2.0 Bello #72 (if a #3 is 60-90, he's a mid level #3.) 1.6 Sandoval (107 IP) #101 (ranks as a mid #4, if 90-120) 1.1 Crawford (90 IP) #149 (ranks as a bottom #5 type) He'd be at 2.2 with 180 IP. 1.0 Early (55 IP) #160 but look at the IP projection. He'd be a 3.0 with 165 IP. 0.7 Tolle (45 IP) He'd be at 2.8 with 180 IP 0.6 Oviedo (36 IP) He'd be at 3.0 with 1180 IP 0,5 Harrison (44 IP) He'd be at 2.0 at 164 IP I'm not sure how adjusting all our SP'ers to 180 IP would look, but I'm guessing our 6-7-8-9 are better than almost everyone else.