moonslav59

Here's how Sox players rank in the "offense" category of fangraph's value page 150+ PAs min. (13 players x 30 teams=390) 8 Betts 40.7 9 Ortiz 37.1 41 JBJ 18.8 44 HanRam 18.6 47 Bogey 17.7 64 Pedey 12.7 99 Young 7.6 106 Leon 6.8 218 Holt -2.0 326 Shaw -9.5 353 Vaz -11.7

Here's how Sox pitchers rank by WAR. Remember, 30 teams x 12 pitchers per team = 360 pitchers. Starters and relievers... 6 Porcello 5.2 13 Price 4.5 40 Pomeranz 3.0 52 Wright 2.8 131 Ziegler 1,3 138 Kimbrel 1.2 139 ERod 1.2 192 Ross 0.7 218 Buch 0.5 227 Barnes 0.4 241 Hembree 0.3 .

I've been a Sox fan since the early 70's. Losing sucked! I used to say, "I'll take 9 last place finished for one ring! Just one ring! f*** all the second place finishes!" Theo deserves a huge pat on the back for ending all that. Sure, Dan D helped some, but Theo made a lot of big moves, including the one I just said "won us a ring"- trading the popular Nomar for little known Cabrera. It was a gitsy trade that brought us our first ring in ages. I'll never forget what he did. That being said, I was not blinded by joy. Theo struggled after that Nomar trade. That doesn't mean he's still not great.

...And the funny thing is, my very first thread on a message board was over at the Herald with the title "The Red Sox Cannot Win With Theo", which came immediately after the Nomar trade. That is funny. You know what I did after the Nomar trade? I drove to my brother-in-law's house and told him and his friends, "We just made a trade that will win us the World Series!" I kid you not. I felt like Nomar's SS defense was so over-rated and that was all we needed. When I told the guys we traded Nomar for Cabrera, they said, "Who's he?" The rest is history. The thing is, after the Nomar trade, if you look at the total body of Theo's work, it was not great. In my opinion, I think it was actually below average despite the 2007 ring.

I'm thinking the same thing. We may not have the luxury to keep 6 starters in the fold, but invariably teams end up needing at least 6 starters. I guess, if we plan on using Pom in relief (at a reasonable cost), then maybe keeping him makes more sense. $13M is a lot to pay for a middle relief guy. Here's a look at how often we have needed a 6th starter or more over recent years: 2016: Price 35, Porcello 33, Buch 21, ERod 20, Kelly 6 6th: Wright 24 7th: Pomeranz 13 8th: Owens 5 9th O'Sullivan 4 10th: Elias 1 Total: 47 2015: Porcello 28, Miley 32, Kelly 25, Buch 18, Masterson 9 6th: ERod 21 7th: Owens 11 8th: Wright 9 9th: Hill 4 10th: Breslow, Barnes & Johnson 5 Total: 50 2014: midseason rotation purge makes it too difficult to keep track. 2013: Lester 33, LAckey 29, Buch 16, Demp 29, Doub 27 6th: Peavy 10 7th: Webster 7 8th: Aceves 6 9th Workman, Morales & Wright 5 Total: 28 2012: Lester 33, Lackey 0, Beckett 21, Buch 29, DiceK 11 6th: Doubront 29 7th: Bard 10 8th: Cook 18 9th: Morales 9 10th: Stewart 1 Total: 67

Shaw is good for 20 home runs and 75 plus RBI's. How do you figure? Here's his numbers pro-rated to 600 PAs: AA: .242 21 68 AAA: .256 13 64 MLB: .251 22 82 Maybe I'm too caught up in his second half slump and his 668 PAs of AAA ball, but I'm not counting on anywhere near those numbers you suggested. I guess this is pretty close: AAA + MLB: .253 18 74 (1446 PAs combined) but I can't bring myself to be that optimistic.

I didn't mention Hernandez because I don't want to see him at third. Second base and shortstop for him in my mind. I'm not sure why not. He's probably a better defensive 3Bman than Shaw, but that's not a known fact. This is known: Hernandez AA: .832 OPS (294 PAs) AAA: .752 OPS (427 PAs) MLB: .730 OPS (56 PAs) T Shaw AA: .795 (870 PAs) AAA: .715 (668 PAs) MLB: .754 (778 PAs) The sample sizes are unbalanced, and certainly Shaw's MLB .754 OPS in 778 PAs should carry more weight than anything Hernandez has done in the minors, but overall, the OPS numbers look comparable. It could also be noted that Shaw's sample sizes at AA and AAA were significant enough to carry a lot of weight too. I was never a Rutledge fan. I'm not a huge Rutledge fan myself, but word was that Ben always liked the guy. He's maybe a better fielder at 3B than SS, where he has played most of his career. AA: .846 (379 PAs) AAA: .826 (583 PAs) MLB: .709 (1088 PAs mostly as a SS)

Assuming everyone is 100% healthy, here's how I see our rotation rankings: 1) Porcello 2) Price (could pass Porcello in 2017) 3) ERod (still has upside potential) 4) Wright (had the best half season of any of our starters this year) 5) Pomeranz (had a great first half this year) 6) Buchholz (We won't get fooled again- The Who)

Yup... Drellich also writes that the Red Sox plan to pick up Clay Buchholz’s $13.5MM club option, and Heyman tweeted that the team will indeed do so. Buchholz had a $500K buyout on the option, so the decision boiled down to a $13MM call for Boston.

Royals give Wade Davis his $10M option.

Big surprise... The Red Sox have declined catcher Ryan Hanigan’s $3.75MM option for 2017 in favor of an $800K buyout, according to FanRag’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald reported earlier Thursday that the Red Sox were likely to let Hanigan go. -MLBTR

Soxprospects.com has this on Kopech.. Kopech's strong Arizona Fall League performance has earned him a spot on the 2016 Fall Stars roster. Over his first three starts, Kopech has impressed, throwing 10 innings with a 2.70 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 12 strikeouts to one walk. He is coming off a 2016 regular season where he dominated to the tune of a 2.08 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 86 strikeouts to 33 walks over 56 1/3 innings. It is no surprise he continues to receive national attention. Both Pleskoff and ESPN's Keith Law had very positive write-ups on Kopech's recent starts. Like everyone, Law was impressed by the upper-90s velocity and said he had "top-of-the-rotation" potential, but also stated that he needed to work on his command and his inconsistent secondaries. Pleskoff, a former Astros and Mariners scout, was much more glowing in his report, ultimately giving him a 60-grade ("all-star quality") grade.

I hate to repeat myself.

You are officially wrong. Games 1 and 5 were won by the home team. The home team lost 5 of 7.

Someone finally got to Miller and Shaw. Congrats Cubbies!

To me, the argument wasn't about choosing Margot or Beni, it was about getting a RP'er for 4 prospects and how we also paid Kimbrel near FA market money in the process.

...it's hard to argue with a worst-to-first season, and we remain well-set for the next few... I agree, but I felt the same way after 2013.

You're probably right. The one way I can see us getting Turner is if we trade Moncada and or Devers as part of the blockbuster needed to get Sale or Quintana.

If you look at our biggest three weak areas and the free agent market, which of these players has the best chance of being a Red Sox next year? RP: Jansen, Chapman Melancon 3B: Turner DH: Encarnacion, Beltran, Bautista

haw does not really have very much actual competition at third base until Sandoval begins to seriously redeem himself. Which he has not yet done. He lost his job to Hill and Holt. I do think he might be the best we got looking to next year, but certainly a guy who lost his job has competition going forward.

Holt was, unfortunately, well below average as a third baseman. His thing is about being able to show up at multiple positions without being a major liability in any of them, but third base is one of his weaker ones. There is simply other, better ways to use the talent that is Brock Holt. Shaw also outhit Holt on the season for what that's worth. Holt outhit Shaw over the second half of the season, and that's why he was given the job once Hill bombed out. What's weird about Holt, to me, is that his career UZR/150 at various positions is all over the map, and the positions you think he's not good at, look better on paper. Of course, some of these sample sizes are tiny, but here they are... Inn. Pos. UZR/150 798 3B -11.6 681 2B +3.9 610 LF -12.1 453 RF +16.4 212 SS +12.0 119 1B -2.0 76 CF -33.2 I'd say he should be better at 3B than SS and better at LF than CF. I do think his best position is 2B with maybe LF/3B tied for second.

Every number I've seen said that Shaw had an above average season playing defense at third. The only possible debate between the various metrics is how far above the average he was. Well, UZR/150 is one pretty respected metric. You have to go down to 550 innings to get a sample size of 32 players at 3B. You need 30 to determine what is "average", since there are 30 teams and 30 3Bmen in MLB. Shaw ranked 17th out of 32 at +1.6. That's slightly below average. If you go to 572 innings, the sample size is 30. Shaw ranks 16th out of 30- slightly below "average". Amazingly, he ranks 6th in DRS even though he ranks 21st in innings played at 3B. I'm okay with calling him slightly plus this year at 3B Defense, but I have to challenge those who are acting like his defense is so good, it makes up for his questionable bat. Now, when comparing him to Pablo, Holt and others, I have no gripe with anyone who ranks him number 1 right now as projected for 2017 opening day.

Shaw's got a good base of defense to justify his spot in the lineup while he works on his offensive approach. He's average, at best on defense at 3B. I wouldn't say being average justifies much, but when you're going against Pablo and Holt....

Maybe JBJ, Swihart and Pom.

I don't base my opinion on stats. Really, I don't. I played the game I love so much for many years. I watch every pitch of every Sox game. I draw conclusions based on my observations, but when it comes to comparative analysis I realize my observations are limited, so I look to stats to support or refute my observational conclusions. I get the argument on Dempster, and though I don't value the "great clubhouse guy" as much as some do, I don't discount it either.