moonslav59

I know he's there, but he's off my radar right now.

It's... Chris Freakin' Sale !

He won't. Next game 7 IP 2 ER

Remember, this was my "Optimist Chapter" ! My "Pessimist Chapter" might exceed the character limit on a post.

True enough, and if we're able to just keep Sale, Betts and assuming Price is still producing in 4-5 years, we may be able to be at about .500 even with a bunch of scrubs filling out 10-15 slots on the 25 man roster.

Small sample sizes are "valid" but not necessarily meaningful. I did the math: take away Sale and our two worst starts, and we have this: Totals: 35 ER/55.2 IP (5.66 ERA) - Sale 2 ER/14.2 IP -Porcello's bad start: 8ER/4.1 IP -Wright's bad start: 8ER/1.1 IP New Total: 17 ER/25.1 IP (6.04 ERA) Just take away the 2 bad starts and keep Sale's 2 starts included, and we have: 19 ER/50 IP (3.42 ERA) 3.42 would rank 10th, although if you took away everyone's worst two starts, it wouldn't look that great. One good thing: the Guardians have the worst starter ERA in all of MLB at 6.58, and they look to be the AL's strongest Sox contender on paper.

For a while I had Owens ranked higher on my list than soxprospects.com. I really liked him early on. I've just about given up on him now, but it's nice to see him doing better.

Losing HanRam & Pablo's contracts the same year Sale, Bogey & Porcello are up for extensions makes keeping 2 of the 3 reasonably possible. There's a chance to keep all three, if we have already filled the shoes of Kimbrel, Pomeranz, Young, Moreland and Ross from within the system. That might be a lot to ask for, but only Kimbrel has a major role right now. I could see "the cliff" being 4 years away, when we will already almost certainly be significantly over the luxury tax but not at the $20M over penalty stage. After 2020, we have these players coming off the books but needing replacement or extension: Betts JBJ Wright Smith Vaz Leon None of these guys are "fluff" like Pablo will have been the year before. Take Betts or JBJ plus Vaz and Leon out of the previous year's projected line-up and what do we have? 2019: 1) Beni LF 2) Bogey SS 3) Betts RF 4) Devers 3B 5) JBJ CF 6) Pedey 2B 7) Travis 1B 8) Dalbec DH 9) Swihart/Vaz/Leon C Bench: Hernandez, Chatham/Longhi/Ockimey/Marrero/Matheny 2020: 1) Beni CF 2) Travis 1B 3) Bogey SS 4) JBJ RF 5) Devers 3B 6) Pedey 2B 7) Dalbec LF 8) Swihart C 9) Hernandez DH or, take out JBJ and insert Betts. Yikes! We'll need a lot to go right for 2020's team to compete for a ring.

Somebody do the math: if we are subtracting Sale's 2 starts, why not subtract Wright's and Porcello's one bad start each and show the new numbers? Our rotation is going to be fine.

His biggest issue is BBs. Even with this nice start, he has 6 BB in 11IP. Until he deals with that issue, he'll remain off my radar.

We've heard talk of an impending cliff the club is heading towards after the 2019 or 2020 season. Here's an optimistic view of what might be to come: Players lost to free agency (and hopeful in-system replacements)- w/luxury tax budget number lost: After 2017: Young $6.5M> Blake Swihart (3rd catcher/5th OF'er/DH) Moreland $5.5M> Travis Shaw (1B) Abad> Several options: Taylor, Scott, Workman, N Ramirez +++ After 2018: Kimbrel $13M> Thornburg, Smith or someone else steps up Pomeranz $Arb > Groome J Kelly $Arb > Several options R Ross $Arb > several options Let's assume the salaries lost cover arb raises over these two years, and we don't have to replace anyone with a costly free agent, especially Kimbrel & Pomeranz. Maybe big "ifs", but let's go with it. After 2019: Ramirez $22M > Dalbec/Hernandez Porcello $20.6M Sandoval $19M (including $5M buyout) > Devers Chris Sale $13.5M X Bogaerts $Arb Thornburg $Arb B Holt $Arb Rutledge $Arb Maybe the loss of HanRam and Pablo can pay for the extensions of Sale & Bogaerts, but Porcello probably has to go due to hefty arb raises being paid out at this time. Let's assume all we lose is Porcello. This could be the 2020 roster framework: $31M Price $31M Sale $25M Bogey $14M Pedroia $18M 3rd of 3 Arb Betts $15M 4/4 Arb JBJ $10M 3/4 Arb ERod $8M 3/3 Arb Wright This is about $150M for just 8 players. Others still under team control: Smith 3/3, Barnes 2/3, Leon 4/4, Vaz 3/3, Hembree 2/3, Elias 3/4 Beni, Swihart, Hernandez, Scott, Workman, Johnson, Owens, Selsky, Taylor, NRamirez, Martin, Marrero, Ysla Rotation: C Sale, Price, ERod, Wright Groome Bullpen: Smith, Barnes, Taylor, Workman, Johnson, Owens, Lakins/Cosart 1) Beni LF 2) Bogey SS 3) Betts RF 4) Devers 3B 5) JBJ CF 6) Pedey 2B 7) Travis 1B 8) Dalbec DH 9) Swihart/Vaz/Leon C Bench: Hernandez, Chatham/Longhi/Ockimey/Marrero/Matheny I'm not sure this is a "cliff", but it probably needs some work. Plus, it needs Devers, Travis and Groome to all come through.

He already is part of the current great team. I love the trade...always have. I've been begging for a trade like this for years.

I'm guessing Abad goes when Thornburg joins the club, if not, when C Smith does, unless we have more pen issues.

We're not going to cut Pablo, and the odds are he'll be with us next year. Pablo would "solve" the problem of Moreland leaving (1B or DH vs RHPs). We could use HanRam-Travis-Pablo at 1B while one DHs. vs RHPs: 1B: Pablo DH: HanRaam vs LHPs: 1B: Travis DH: HanRam Devers or Hernandez or both would have to be good enough to play 3B for this to happen. That could be a big if for 2018.

Many of our great players came in trades involving highly touted pitching prospects. Schilling, Beckett, AGon and many many more.

To me it would be close.

The guy should never start vs a lefty again at all cost. With Moreland only on a one year deal, why not think about moving Panda to 1B/DH, especially if Hernandez or Devers prove they are deserving a FT job? I know we have Travis for 1B, but what if Devers or Hernandez look much better? We have to find ways to fill departing players' roles within the system.

That's like saying the Yankees are my second favorite team.

They wouldn't have had to win a ring for Ben to save his job... maybe.

I don't disagree, but just imagine if Hanram and Porcello had their 2016 seasons in 2015, and Pablo didn't bloat into a blimp? We might not have won a ring (or even made the WS or playoffs), but Ben might still be here.

Buch Showalter....probably kicks himself thinking about E Rod pitching several years for Sox, a kid he drafted. ERod was drafted two days after Buck was signed to manage the O's. I doubt he had much, if anything, to do with the pick. I'm sure he'd want him back though.

Not bad at all. These forums do tend to bring out more of what we think was done wrongly, but most of us Sox fans, especially the longer term ones, are tickled pink Henry took over this club and brought us 3 rings.

The pen has been great so far, but I still think the pen will prove to be not weak but our weakest link.

Preaching to the choir.

Yes, probably enough.