moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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Agreed, but haven't we already been outspending most teams in scouting? What's our record drafting 24th-30th with a long-time highly paid scouting group? I'm not sure this is an area we can just will to get better, even by throwing more money at it. I think there are still ways to sign international FAs that don't count against the limits, so we still have some hope there, but if you look at some of our best players and recent top trade pieces you'll see how important the international signings have been to us. This is the big area where we may take a big hit- not so much drafting. Recent international signings: Bogaerts Devers (probably our best bet for saving money by replacing Pablo) Moncada & Basabe (helped bring us Sale) Espinoza (brought us Pomeranz) Margot (helped bring us us Kimbrel) Almonte & Basabe brought us Ziegler J Aro (helped bring us C Smith) Iggy & Montas (brought us Peavy who brought us Hembree)
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Bogaerts being younger probably means he'll want 2-3 more years on a mega deal than JBJ. Weighing the cost and length of each contract vs age usually evens things out pretty much. It should come down to who is better at the time, and who do we have to replace one vs the other (at the time). Personally, I think JBJ and Bogey are very close, but as of right now, I'd put JBJ slightly over Bogey. It's not easy finding GG caliber CF defense with 25+ HR power and an.830+ OPS. In today's world, there's actually more great SSs than CF'ers.
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I loved the Nomar trade and felt (at the time) it was just what we needed to win us a ring. I think Bogey will be a better defensive SS than Nomar was at the time he was, and to me, defense is a big portion of a SS's true value.
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He could be our next closer.
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Welcome 67! Glad to see you here. Game threads are title by date and opponent. Stick around. There are some very knowledgeable posters here and no "softy the clown" characters.
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Maybe we trade XB in 2 years... Blaspheme! Seriously though, the idea may come to fruition at some point, but it's hard to imagine us trading him in the middle of a contending season or right before his final season.
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I wonder what JBJ will be making his last arb year. I'd love to keep Porcello, but at age 31, open market FA prices as they are and probably $62M+ tied up in Price & Sale, I'm just not sure we'll be able to pay Porcello what he wants and deserves. Can we really afford to have $85M+ tied up in just 3 SP'ers... and long term?
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Pedey's under team control forever-- it seems like. I think 2B is marco's best position, but his team control years may end about the same time as Pedey's- barring a trade. Here's what soxprospects has to say about Chatham's SS skills: Field: Solid instincts and feel for shortstop. Atypical size for a shortstop. Doesn’t get by on quick twitch athleticism, but rather long strides that allow him to cover ground to both sides and when charging the ball. Solid footwork, soft hands. Smooth fielder. Projects as a solid average-to-better defender and should be able to stick at shortstop long term.
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It would be costly to replace one of our OF'ers "in kind" through free agency. I realize it would be very costly to replace Bogey "in kind" as well, as SS are more costly. My point was that at this moment, we have better prospects at SS than OF. That could change. I get your point, though.
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We have no OF'er on the farm horizon. That's one reason I have JBj slightly ahead of or tied with JBJ. I like Marco as a SS, and Chatham could be a surprise. I won't argue with anyone having Bogey ahead. The age is a good point, but he will cost more too.
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...But their ability to solve that is on the scouting and development staff... Agreed, but one would think Sox admin has been trying to do the very best in this area from day one, and now that the system is harder, I'm not sure it's something we can count on to improve. Yes, Groome and Beni look better than TBall, so there is hope we are moving in the right direction, but we probably won't be getting 7th and 12th picks for 4-5 more years, at least, so even the same good scouts can only do so much with lower picks..
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Porcello turns 31 the winter after his final contract year. He will be looking for a big contract and probably as many years as he can get. After the Lester fiasco, maybe we'll learn something about extending pitchers over 30, but at some point there is a cost vs risk point where you have to say no. I hope we can keep Porcello, but at what cost? If keeping Porcello means we lose JBJ or Betts, then it's not an easy choice. Pomeranz turns 30 the winter after his final year. It's hard to project where both of these guys will be once the reach free agency, but my guess is Pom will cost less- much less. His contract runs out a year earlier than Porcello's. If you could only keep 3 or 4 of these guys, who do you choose? Here's my choices: (in order) 1) Betts 2) Sale 3) JBJ 4) Bogey (just about tied with JBJ) 5) Porcello 6) Pomeranz (Note: these rankings can and probably will change by the decision time.)
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Corner IF future.... http://news.soxprospects.com/2017/04/system-restart-17-corner-infield.html
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So, how does that translate to us not enjoying a walk off HR by Papi?
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People who love stats, numbers and metrics can also greatly enjoy the game for what it is: the greatest game on earth! I'm not sure why some think being a stat geek and being able to enjoy the game are not compatible.
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I'm really impressed with the progress Barnes has made over the last 2-3 years. There was a while there where he was pretty iffy. What a huge boost to the pen he can be, if he keeps this up. I always thought Kimbrel would be a top 5 closer for the 3 years with us. He's looking like that now.
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True, but even with one good on the DL, there will be a squeeze, especially if we try to keep the two guys out of options on the 25 man roster: Hembree & Abad.
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I never meant to imply trading Taylor. I'm thinking that if everyone is healthy and no phantom DL is used, we should try to trade Abad. I've been saying that for months. Another idea would be to trade Ross & Abad or Ross & Hembree for one better RP'er. That makes room for Taylor, Scott, Workman or others and clears up the issue with RP'er without options keeping perhaps better RP'ers in AAA. I realize the goal of keeping as much depth as possible, but when Smith and Thornburg return, we'll be squeezing some very good talent down to the minors. Assuming one of ERod, Wright or Pom takes the mid-long relief role, that leaves 6 RP'ers for the 25 man roster: 1. Kimbrel 2. Thornburg 3. Smith 4. Kelly 5. Barnes 6. ??? Without options: Hembree & Abad With options: Ross, Taylor, Scott, Workman, Ramirez, Johnson and others
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If our staff ever gets fully healthy, some big decisions will need to be made. I have to think these guys are locks (9): SP: Sale, Porcello, Price SP/LR: ERod, Wright, Pom RP: Kimbrel, Smith, Thornburg Highly Probable (2): Barnes, Kelly (Both have options remaining) Probable (1): Ross (has options remaining) Out of options: Hembree, Abad Others with options: Taylor, Scott, Workman, N Ramirez, K Martin Johnson, Kendrick, Owens, Elias, Havliand We might try a two for one trade to make room for Hembree, or we may just trade Ross or Hembree or create a phantom DL for someone.
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No doubt! The rotation is still the least of my worries, but they have looked like our weak point, so far. Out of ERod, Wright and Pom, nobody has made a claim to the rotation once Price returns.
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But, we are getting some key hits.
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As bad as the offense looked early, we can see some nice numbers now... OBP: .714 Vazquez .429 Moreland .400 Betts .390 Beni .375 HRam .368 Bogey .362 Young .353 JBJ .333 Pedey .333 Holt SLG: 1.083 Vazquez .583 Moreland .431 Beni .429 JBJ .412 Leon
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As bad as our starters have looked as a whole, I don't think it's as bad as the starter ERA shows it is. Sale has been "Chris Freakin' Sale": 2 great/1 very good 7 IP 0 ER 7.1 2 ER 7.0 1 ER Porcello has not been great: 2 OK/1 horrific 6.1 3 ER 6.0 3 ER 4.1 8 ER Wright:not really that bad: 1 very good, 1 OK, 1 horrific 6.2 4 ER 1.1 8 ER 6.0 1 ER ERod has been okay: 1 good/1 bad 5.0 4 ER 5.1 2 ER Pom has been okay: 1 very good/1 bad 6.0 1 ER 4.1 5 ER Overall, we have a 54% QS%. Starts: 2 Great 3 Very Good 1 Good 3 Okay 2 Bad 2 Horrific -Or- 6 Good to Great 3 Okay 4 Bad to Horrific Yeah, it's not the start we hoped for from this highly touted rotation, but it's not as bad as it looks. Those two starts with 8 ERs each hurts the numbers badly.
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I wouldn't have called it an error.
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Nice post. I agree on your assessment. I'll add that not only does our 6-9 slots in the line-up have great potential, I think that even if they don't do great, they will be better than about 25 other teams' bottom of the orders.
