moonslav59

The Sox are... 1st in Defense in MLB (UZR) and 2nd in UZR/150 (+6.3). 3rd in Pitching (WAR) and 4th in ERs allowed. (4th in least Runs allowed as well) 9th in Offense (Runs scored)

I think the improvement with 3B defense (Lin/Marrero) is part of the rise, but certainly our OF defense has been superb. Health with out OF'ers has been important. We are now up to 16th in UZR/150 at -0.4 at 3B! OF UZR 15.8 MIA 13.3 BOS 10.9 KCR 8.3 TEX 7.6 NYY 7.3 CIN OF DRS 25 MIA 24 BOS 18 MN 17 TBR 14 NYY 12 CIN 9 TEX We're 10th in SS UZR/150 (+3.5) but 24th in DRS (-5) 4th in 2B UZR/150 at +8.0 8th at 1B with a +3.9 UZR/150 fangraphs has us listed at 9th in catcher D.

Let the talk of trade options begin. DD says he's not looking for a SP'er. 3B is a possible target for a rental. Boosting the pen is always an option for contenders at the deadline.

We now have the top UZR team in MLB ... AND... 5 players over .799, 6 over .787 and 7 over .761. Our two "black hole" positions are well above .600, at least recently at 3B. Catchers: .676 Vaz .672 Leon 3B: .805 Lin (43 PAs) .803 Marrero (last 28 days & 55 PAs) (Marrero also has an amazing 1.135 OPS vs LHPs in 39 PAs) No more crappy D at 3B and the makings of a nice platoon at 3B, C, LF (Beni-Young) and C (Vaz-Leon) are making our line-up look (potentially) black hole free.

I value your opinion on prospects highly. Who would you trade Chavis or Travis for? Who would you trade both for? What could we get by trading Chavis, Travis and Beeks and/or Lakins?

I'd like to keep Devers, Groome, Travis, Chavis and Mata, but to get something, you have to give something. I'm not sure what a package of 2-3 of these guys would get us. Maybe not much better than what we already have. Ockimey Chatham Dalbec Beeks Lakins Johnson Anderson Shawaryn D Hernandez Callahan Raudes Personally, I don't think we will be having a rule 5 roster crunch this fall, but some posters disagree. Perhaps trading a couple rule 5 candidates at the deadline would solve any further issues there. We already trade Longhi, who is going to be rule 5. Here are this winter's rule 5 players: 2017: Victor Acosta, Yoan Aybar, Trey Ball, Gerson Bautista, Jalen Beeks, Danny Bethea, Jordan Betts, Ty Buttrey, Jamie Callahan, Rusney Castillo, Harrison Cooney, Jake Cosart, Enmanuel De Jesus, Rafael Devers, Jhonathan Diaz, Jake Drehoff, Willis Figueroa, Pat Goetze, Daniel Gonzalez, Taylor Grover, Juan Hernandez, Darwinzon Hernandez, Bryan Hudson, Dedgar Jimenez, Raiwinson Lameda, Isaias Lucena, Danny Mars, Algenis Martinez, Kevin McAvoy, Daniel McGrath, Ritzi Mendoza, Mike Meyers, Mike Miller, Samuel Miranda, Joseph Monge, Jhon Nunez, Yankory Pimentel, Jordan Procyshen, Hildemaro Requena, Jeremy Rivera, Jake Romanski, Chandler Shepherd, Josh Smith, Teddy Stankiewicz, Cole Sturgeon, Carlos Tovar, Jantzen Witte

Counting this year, he's also had two seasons below a .690 OPS since 2011. Holt has been over .705 for 3 straight years, which are all his seasons with over 75 PAs (over 320 PAs as well). I'd rather have Prada over a recovering Holt at 3B this year, but it's not a slam dunk. The contract is the issue.

People like to blame Ben for the horrible signings he made, justifiably so. Some blamed Theo, or partially blamed him, for the mess we had in 2012. Had we not won it all in 2013, that 4 year stretch would have gone down in Sox history as the worst evah! It wasn't just poor signings and trades by Theo in his latter years and Ben afterwards, much of the problem was caused by a near "empty fridge". Except for 2013, which some label as a "fluke", It was only when Betts, Bogey and JBJ rose to the bigs that we started winning again. We don't have to guess about the future, we only have to look to the past. According to soxprospects.com, here were our top prospects leading up to 2012: 2008(Fall): Lars Anderson Michael Bowden Josh Reddick Michael Almanzar Casey Kelly Daniel Bard R Westmoreland Y Navarro Argenis Diaz Che-Hsuan Lin 2009 Kelly Reddick Kalish Westmoreland Anderson Tazawa Bowden Rizzo Pimental Exposito 2010 Kelly (soon to be traded for AGon) Kalish Rizzo (soon to be traded for AGon) Anderson Iggy Doubront Ranaudo Reddick Pimental D Britton K Vitek 2011 Middy Kalish Ranaudo Bogey Iggy Lava Barnes Brentz Jacobs Swihart 2012 (The farm begins to grow- look 3-4 years from then) Bogey Barnes JBJ Webster Brentz Cecchini Swihart Owens Iggy Britton There's almost a direct correlation between having a strong farm and being successful 3-5 years from then and having a poor farm and struggling 3-5 years from then. Free agents fill gaps, but advancing prospects are the major key to winning and winning for an extended time.

I'm not saying I want Prado and his bloated contract, but getting him is one way of upgrading 3B WITHOUT trading away a top prospect. His contract is what would cause issues. His AVV is $13.3M, so getting him would not put us over the luxury limit this year (we pay 1/3 of that deal this year= about $4.5M). We could reset the tax for the future. The real problem arises with that $13.3M in 2018 and 2019. He'd eat all of Young and Moreland's departing contracts next year, but the 2019 season is going to be extremely tight, budget wise. Perhaps we could deal him by then, but if he sucks, we're stuck with another big contract dud. He is a decent fielder, and he can play 2B, OF and even SS in a pinch. His career OPS is just .764, and he's below .700 so far this year. Hes' only been over his career OPS once since 2012, and then it was only .011 over. .750 2013 .733 2015 .775 2016 .688 2017 He turns 34 this October. He doesn't seem to be aging well. Let's not go down this road again. I say, "No thanks." But, it's not really a horrible idea, if we can get him for peanuts or get the Marlins to kick in some cash.

I don't consider being realistic pessimism. Pessimism is seeing something that is good or average and thinking it is bad or negative.

Even with our 5th starter out all year (Wright), Price missing several starts, ERod still out injured, and Porcello pitching worse than he ever has, our starters still rank 1st in AL SP'er WAR and 4th in MLB. Starter K/BB 3.91 BOS 3.57 CLE 3.53 NYY 3.43 LAD 3.22 WAS 3.04 HOU When you figure none of these guys should get a start in the playoffs, our starters look even better: GS'd 5 Wright 1-3 8.25 4 Johnson 2-0 4.29 3 Fister 0-2 6.14 2 Kendrick 0-2 12.96 2 Velazquez 0-1 6.97 Replace these starts with a returning ERod, a rejuvinated Pom & Porcello, and we look very very strong. Last 2-3 starts (14 days): Pom 3-0 1.59 Price 2-0 2.08 Sale 2-1 2.21 Porc 0-2 3.53 Oh, and by the way, our pen has the 5th best WAR. They are 3rd in WHIP at 1.17. Overall, we have the 3rd best pitcher WAR in MLB (just behind CLE). Without Pablito at 3B, we've greatly improved our defense. We now rank... 1st in UZR (+20.9) 3rd in UZR/150 at +6.3 6th in DRS at 19 We're way ahead in Range (RngR): 15.6 BOS 10.9 KCR 9.8 LAA/DET 9.0 LAD 8.0 Cubs THere's more ways tow inning than just out bashing other teams.

Despite all the gobbledeegoop, we've inched our way up to 9th in scoring. We may end up 4th or 5th by season's end. We clearly have our weaknesses. We're not going to magically turn into a top HR team. Our approach, especially to first pitches, is too predictable. Like all teams, we have moments of inconsistency and futility, but we can win without having a top 3 offense. If Porcello can keep up the improvement and ERod returns and stays healthy, I love our chances come October.

Not many tape-measure jobs by the Sox.

Tonight on the farm... Pablito goes 2 for 4. Olmos goes to 6-2 with a 1.64 ERA. Chavis 0 for 4. Bryan Mata 5 IP, 1 H, 0 ER

Partially, but I wish Theo never left. Theo, himself, said he got away from what was best for the team in the long run.

Every team, even the Astros have bad games and bad stretches. I don't ask myself why after every 2-3 bad game stretch. I chalk it up to being just what happens in baseball. We have never lost 4 games in a row. That's one great MO to continue. I could be wrong, but I get the feeling you'll never be happy unless we score 5 runs 9 out of 10 games and allow 0-3 runs 9 out of 10 games. That ain't ever going to happen with any team in MLB. We have a damn good team on paper, and we're doing fine so far this year. I'm not going to freak out over 3 low scoring games out of our last 4 games. I'm not going to look for some hidden trend or message I need to learn to better understand this team and try and gauge where we're going to end up this year based on a few tiny sample sizes where we did poorly.

He wasn't the GM four years before 2014 and 2015.

MLBTR reports... Red Sox catcher Blake Swihart is on the shelf at Triple-A Pawtucket with inflammation in his left ankle, on which he underwent surgery last August. His current troubles aren’t in the exact spot, per the Providence Journal’s Brian MacPherson, though he suggests that Swihart’s problems are likely related to last year’s injury and surgery. Swihart suffered the injury while playing left field for Boston last June. He’s back behind the plate on a full-time basis this year, but all of his work has come in the minors and he has only hit .213/.265/.327 across 163 plate appearances.

JBj will reach free agency a bit older than our other young stars, but he should be worth a hefty salary. He may be a bit more inconsistent than others, but he's been between .830 and .855 for three straight years (including 2017). That's actually more consistent than just about anyone else on the Sox. JBJ ranks 37th in MLB in OPS since 2015 at .839. He's 37th in wOBA (.356) which is within .001 of Beltre and Machado. He's worth a mega deal based on just his offense.

There's not always an answer to every game we fail to muster enough offense. Baseball is a game that is not easily explained. Terrible teams can beat excellent teams on any given day. Good hitter look awful at times. Bad hitters look good at times. We lost a tight low-scoring game today. Tomorrow we may win or lose 12-11. That's baseball. It can be maddening, but it is the best game in the world.

Maybe Porcello is finally out of the woods. Great game by him.

s*** happens. Players look good one day and bad the next. It's a 162 game season.

4 years ago, our GM was worried about 2017. That's one reason we are highly competitive right now. My guess is every single GM has 2021 on their mind as some sort of a significant priority. If they don't, they should be fired.

I wonder how comfortable Tigers felt 3-4 years ago.

Could be, but I think we might go way over the limit in 2020 for a one time major penalty, so the window stays open for one more year.