moonslav59

Our highest picks (top 40 or first round/supplemental round) in the Henry era: 2011 to 2017 7 Andrew Benintendi '15 7 Trey Ball '13 12 Jay Groome '16 19 Matt Barnes '11 24 Tanner Houck '17 24 Deven Marrero '12 26 Michael Chavis '14 26 Blake Swihart '11 31 Brian Johnson '12 33 Michael Kopech '14 36 Henry Owens '11 37 Pat Light '12 40 Jackie Bradley '11 2003 to 2009 17 David Murphy '03 20 Kolbrin Vitek '10 23 Jacoby Ellsbury '05 26 Craig Hansen '05 27 Jason Place '06 28 Reymond Fuentes '09 36 Bryce Brentz '10 30 A Ranaudo '10 30 Casey Kelly '08 32 Matt Murton '03 40 Kris Johnson '06 42 Clay Buchholz '05 45 Jed Lowrie '05 44 Caleb Clay '06 47 Michael Bowden '05

Tough call, but it looks like resetting the tax this year would allow us to pay for Beltre next year. It will take more than Travis to get Beltre. It might take Groome & Travis or Groome, Lakins, Lin & Beeks. I'd have to think about it longer, but I'm not saying "no."

Never mind.

I'm usually the last to cite recent small sample sizes, but am I the only guy here wondering why Moreland is still batting clean-up? I get how he carried us for a couple months, but he's playing hurt, he's slumping, and we have other hitter that have been hotter. Even without opening up the "move Betts to clean-up" argument, I'd rather see JBJ or HRam up 4th, maybe even Beni vs RHPs or Young vs LHPs would even be a better choice.

I'm highly optimistic about having a 4 year window. I don't think we'll finish in last place year 5 or 6, but there will be severe challenges.

Yes, a 3 to 4 year window. It's not a one year window. Do not trade prospects like Devers & Travis that are likely to be low cost high reward type players for 2 to 3 years of the 3 to 4 years in the window. Consider trading others, but avoid desperation overpays. We should be able to get by without having to add any outside FAs for the next 2 winters. That alone is significant. The salary wall rises quickly for 2020. We can probably afford going over the limit in 2018, 2019 and maybe way over in 2020, but the penalties will be severe and possibly long lasting, if we go over the non-monetary penalty limit.

I've already said I'm willing to give Ockimey and Lakins. I might even add Beeks for a very good rental, but I would not trade Devers, Groome or Travis for just about any 3B rental that is available. I might consider Chavis, but with a system so bad in power, it's hard to justify trading our top HR guy.

Agreed, but it seems somehow finishing so close but never winning it all hurt more than maybe never coming close. I've seen some horrible streaks from my other teams. The Bucks have been good here and there, but haven't won since 1971. My Packers had some horrific years- long stretches of futility. The Sox have stayed pretty competitive, but they never were the favorites until Henry came aboard. Just about every year they made the WS was unexpected. While we didn't finish in last place too often, until Ben & Co., we did have some mediocre to bad stretches. We finished in 5th or 6th place in 3 out of 4 years from 1980-1983 and 4th place or worst in 5 out of 6 years from 1980 to 1985. The lone better year was a 3rd place finish in 1982. (7 team division back then.) We also finished 7th, 5th and 4th from 1992-1994. What a strange streak we've had the last 6 seasons (5 team division): 5th 2012 1st 2013 (Championship) 5th 2013 5th 2014 1st 2016 1st 2017 (so far)

That 1972 team had finished way back in 1971, but their pitching turned things around, sound familiar? 1972 SP'ing numbers: 3.46 ERA Tiant 12-5 1.88 Pattin 17-12 3.16 McGlothen 8-7 3.41 J Curtis 10-8 3.63 S Siebert 12-12 3.80 Ray Culp 5-8 4.46 Tiant also pitched out of the pen for 24 games (2.05 ERA) Others included: IP PItcher ERA 84 Bill Lee 3.20 58 Gary Peters 4.06 37 Newhauser 2.43 31 Bob Bolin 2.93 29 Ken Tatum 3.07 8 Bob Veale 0.00

That was the first real heartbreak year for me too. That was a very good team. The absurdity of finishing 1/2 game behind was just too much for a fragile young mind to comprehend. I cried in 1975. We had so many chances. The Ed Armbrister play is still chiseled into my mind. Some great memories too, though: Fisk& Bernie Carbo's blasts, El Tiante, Fred Lynn and Jim Rice (out for the playoffs of '75). More heartbreak with Bucky f***ing Dent, the easy non Stapleton play at 1B... These years hardened me as a sports fan. I'd seen championships with my other favorite teams: Packers, Bucks and Bruins, but baseball has always been my favorite sport (to play and watch). Maybe that's why I have more sympathy for GMs and managers and a few last place finishes here and there. Just give me some rings here and there, and I can be very forgiving on the inbetweens.

Expecting and getting are two different things. HRam is a crap shoot. he could get worse. he could finish 2017 like 2015. Beni is still too young to know anything conclusive. I do expect Betts to finish strong, like he has the last 2 years. One could also just as easily "expect" JBj to have another slump, Moreland to be more like Moreland, Leon and Vaz to dip a little, Lin/Marrero to revert to their minor league numbers, and Bogey to continue his recent struggles. I'm optimistic about our offense finishing strong, but winning the division is not just what it's all about. Positioning ourselves as a ring contender in the playoffs is also a priority. We've gone almost totally "all out" to win in this 3-4 yar window. I realize the playoffs are by and large a "crap shoot", but it doesn't hurt to try and improve your odds a little bit, if it doesn't involve major sacrifices to our future chances. I'm for looking hard at finding a cheap solution for the 2017 3B position. "Cheap" means not trading Devers, Groome or Travis, and hopefully not Chavis either. I'm also not talking about acquiring another Aaron Hill type, and maybe the cost will be too high to get anything better, but I'd try hard as I'm sure DD will. I just don't want DD to try too hard.

You are right, but at this point in time, it seems that we'd like to try to keep our core together beyond their FA dates. Paying 5-7 guys $25M plus is probably never going to happen, and if it did, I'd hate to see what the other 18-20 guys on the roster look like. Chances are we don't keep everyone, but here's who I would like to see stay around a bit longer, accepting that things can change between now and their paydays: (Price is probably a given to be here for 5 more years) 1) Betts 2) Sale 3) JBJ 4) ERod 5) Bogey (Note: Beni is here for 4-5 more years anyways. Pedey is here until 2021, unless traded, but his AVV is just $13.5M.) I seriously doubt we can keep all these players at this money: $33M Sale $31M Price $31M Betts $25M Bogey $22M JBJ $14.5M ERod $13.5M Pedey That's $170M for just 7 players with Beni nearing his last arb years. This does not include any FA signings or extensions needed to replace Porcello, Kimbrell, Pomeranz, HRam or others. Keeping Kimbrel and Pom might put us near $200M for just 9 players.

Thornburg is a FA after 2019, so I'm not sure counting on him for much is worthwhile. I do think our pen should be fine as we keep turning starters into RP'ers on the farm. I'd like to keep Kelly, but he may have to go. Ross likewise. I just do not see counting on a starter to emerge from the Sox system by 2020. It is wishful thinking. Groome represents the best hope right now, but I'm not sure anyone else will be ML ready by then. Here's a list of all our top pitching prospects as ranked by soxprospects.com: 2) Groome (18 years old) 5) Houck (21 just out of college) 6) Mata (18) 10) Beeks (23) 11) Lakins (23) 12) Johnson (26) 15) Scherff (19) 16) Anderson (22) 17) Shawaryn (22) 18) Hernandez (20) 19) Callahan (22) 20) Raudes (19) While I think there are several promising prospects here, many are too far away to hope for help in 2020. We've had better looking pitching prospects in the past and got very little from those classes. I'm more hopeful than optimistic.

I just don't see us leaving the 2017 3B job to Lin/Marrero/Devers/Rutledge/Holt/Pablo. Even if Lin is still over .900 by the deadline, I'm not counting on anything above .650 from August 1st onward. Maybe we don't NEED a fix at 3B to win it all, but if we can find someone more reliable at a low cost, I think DD pulls the trigger.

Again, our window is 3-4 years NOT one. Maybe Devers will not help this year, but getting a rental only helps for 1 out of 4 years. if we trade Devers for that rental as you suggest, we are risking getting 3 good years of production for 2 months and one playoff cycle. Better to find a cheaper rental at 3B that allows us to keep Devers for our 2018, 2019 and 2020 playoff pushes.

http://boston.locals.baseballprospec...g-for-a-spark/ Its' easy to say, "Call up Devers, even if just for 2 weeks." That's not really for us to say, though. I'm okay with putting HanRam on the DL, but he seems to be showing signs of heating up some. I've always said Young MUST START vs ALL LH'd STARTERS, and these splits vs LHPS show why: vs LHPs: .612 Moreland .636 Beni (Although YOung's slow start vs LHPs and JBJ's surprising numbers vs LHPS-1.100- makes me wonder if I'm over blowing the split platoon argument.) Note: Travis is at .967 vs LHPS in a small sample size of 40 PAs. I could see keeping HRam off the dL and platooning Moreland-Travis and Beni-Young might be the best strategy.

Good read on Sox lack of power (yeah I know they hit 3 last night). Going forward (2018) we need better power production from 3B, 1B and DH. Devers will take care of 3B. Devers will likley play 3B for the next few years, but we can only hope he "takes care" of a bad Situation we've had since Beltre was here. Hanley needs to get healthy. Yes, probably, but there is hope with Travis taking over for Moreland, and maybe Chavis or Ockimey becoming our next DH. Maybe that's too much to hope for with 3 positions needing future help. Our starting pitching and bullpen can only get better. (Porcello can anti-regress from his regression year). We just need some depth. Hopefully Wright can return to his early 2016 form. It can get worse. Look what happened to Porcello this year. The same could happen to others next year or the year after. Smith, Thornburg and plethora of viable options in our farm system bode well for the pen next year. Final contract year for Kimbrel. Bullpen...FA year Kimbrel 2019 Kelly 2019 Thornburg 2020 Smith 2021 Barnes 2022 Hembree 2022 Scott 2023 Starters Pomeranz 2019 (I predict he'll be extended before 2019, maybe similar to Porcello, announced on Opening Day 2018 his final arb year) C Sale 2020 Porcello 2020 Wright 2021 Ed Rod 2022 D Price 2023 We can probably keep Pom, Kimbrel, Kelly & Ross for 2019 and beyond, but with rising arb costs and an option raise for Sale (add $6M to his AVV) and possible extensions to one or two of our young studs, we may be pushing the maximum penalty phase by going $20M over the luxury limit. We need 1 starter to emerge by 2020, that's not asking for much is it? It might be, when you have just one prospect who has a good chance: Groome. We could hope Wright takes Porcello's slot, but we'll still need a solid #6 starter, in case of emergency. Flip side of having so many young players is that arbitration cost will get extremely high over next three years. But with luxury tax reset this year, Sox will not be afraid to break through it next couple of years. Wecan go over, but not by more than $20M or we getting non-monetary penalties. We should be okay for 2018, especially if Devers, Travis and/or Swihart can replace Moreland & Young's roster slots. 2019 looks doable, but arb costs are the wild card. We just need to get the $40M off the books in 2020 with Hanley and Pablo. Throw in another $20M for Porcello. $60M seems like a lot toco me off the books after the 2019 season, but it's not that simple. We need to pay Sale ($13.5M to $33.5m?) We need to pay or replace Bogey at SS for 2020 (maybe his final arb cost might be $15M, and he may want over $25M a year). THornburg is up, too. Just keeping these two alone will likely eat up over half of the available $60M. Even if Porcello does not do well from now until 2020,w e'll still need to replace him or hope Wright/Groome can fill in, and this is assuming we keep Pom and he is staying healthy and doing well. Lots of assumptions as you look farther and farther ahead. Now, count the projected massive arb raises for 2020... Betts- final arb year (3 of 3) JBJ- final arb year (4 of 4) Plus, Vazquez, Wright, Smith & Leon have their last arbs. i think we can probably squeeze under the $20M penalty penalty limit until we reach 2021, but only if we do not add anymore big contracts from outside the system. Getting help from Wright and/or Groome may be essential. Getting help from Devers is just about mandatory. Getting help from 2 of these players may also be essential: Travis, Chavis, Ockimey, Dalbec. This may be hoping for too much.

I've been talking about Frazier for a couple of years, but I'm not so sure anymore... Season 1st half splits/ second half splits 2017-- .782/ TBD 2016-- .782/.749 2015-- .922/.644 2014-- .853/.707 2013-- .730/.708 2012-- .901/.775 2011-- N/A/ .733 Streaks and norms are broken all the time, but it concerns me that Frazier has dropped off in the second half every single season of his career. Plus, his base line first half this year is second worst in his career. He's .044 below his career first half numbers. If he ends up .044 below his career second half numbers, we're looking at him finishing the season with us at .677. Career splits: 1st half: .826 2nd half: .721 It may not end up at .677, but is .677 going to be a significant improvement over Lin/Marrero/Rutledge/Holt? Enough to give up a decent prospect or two?

Get your pom -poms out!

Great start from Ball today: 7 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 7 K. Whenever Ball has performed really well, he follows it up with a clunker. Let's hope he can string two outstanding starts together this time. Quick... trade 'em before his stock falls... LOL

Doubleheader for the Sea Dogs... Holt 1 for 2 (2 BBs) Devers 2 for 5 (1 BB) Chavis 3 for 7

Interesting to see that despite their win tonight, the Cubs are just barely closer to first place than last place in the NL Central.

We're in the process now...

And since HRam can't play 1B, there's not even a slot for Pablo to DH, even if he could hit. Cut Pablo loose. Just rip the Band Aid off. Lin & Marrero can carry us to the trade deadline... maybe even beyond.

He's been in the system for 6 years. I'm not saying no player ever does significantly better in the majors, but it is very rare for a .638 career minor leaguer with almost 2000 PAs to suddenly "get it" at the big league level. I'm not saying I want to demote him or trade him, but I'm trusting the 1954 PA sample size over the 36 one. Keep playing Lin. There's no rush to do anything right now, but even 3 more weeks of good hitting by Lin will not convince me he is the answer for us at 3B this year. He may end up being our utility IF'er someday. He has some other useful tools. As far as his hit tool goes, his sample size is going to have to be way larger than even 100 PAs for me to become a believer.