moonslav59

http://boston.locals.baseballprospec...g-for-a-spark/ Its' easy to say, "Call up Devers, even if just for 2 weeks." That's not really for us to say, though. I'm okay with putting HanRam on the DL, but he seems to be showing signs of heating up some. I've always said Young MUST START vs ALL LH'd STARTERS, and these splits vs LHPS show why: vs LHPs: .612 Moreland .636 Beni (Although YOung's slow start vs LHPs and JBJ's surprising numbers vs LHPS-1.100- makes me wonder if I'm over blowing the split platoon argument.) Note: Travis is at .967 vs LHPS in a small sample size of 40 PAs. I could see keeping HRam off the dL and platooning Moreland-Travis and Beni-Young might be the best strategy.

Good read on Sox lack of power (yeah I know they hit 3 last night). Going forward (2018) we need better power production from 3B, 1B and DH. Devers will take care of 3B. Devers will likley play 3B for the next few years, but we can only hope he "takes care" of a bad Situation we've had since Beltre was here. Hanley needs to get healthy. Yes, probably, but there is hope with Travis taking over for Moreland, and maybe Chavis or Ockimey becoming our next DH. Maybe that's too much to hope for with 3 positions needing future help. Our starting pitching and bullpen can only get better. (Porcello can anti-regress from his regression year). We just need some depth. Hopefully Wright can return to his early 2016 form. It can get worse. Look what happened to Porcello this year. The same could happen to others next year or the year after. Smith, Thornburg and plethora of viable options in our farm system bode well for the pen next year. Final contract year for Kimbrel. Bullpen...FA year Kimbrel 2019 Kelly 2019 Thornburg 2020 Smith 2021 Barnes 2022 Hembree 2022 Scott 2023 Starters Pomeranz 2019 (I predict he'll be extended before 2019, maybe similar to Porcello, announced on Opening Day 2018 his final arb year) C Sale 2020 Porcello 2020 Wright 2021 Ed Rod 2022 D Price 2023 We can probably keep Pom, Kimbrel, Kelly & Ross for 2019 and beyond, but with rising arb costs and an option raise for Sale (add $6M to his AVV) and possible extensions to one or two of our young studs, we may be pushing the maximum penalty phase by going $20M over the luxury limit. We need 1 starter to emerge by 2020, that's not asking for much is it? It might be, when you have just one prospect who has a good chance: Groome. We could hope Wright takes Porcello's slot, but we'll still need a solid #6 starter, in case of emergency. Flip side of having so many young players is that arbitration cost will get extremely high over next three years. But with luxury tax reset this year, Sox will not be afraid to break through it next couple of years. Wecan go over, but not by more than $20M or we getting non-monetary penalties. We should be okay for 2018, especially if Devers, Travis and/or Swihart can replace Moreland & Young's roster slots. 2019 looks doable, but arb costs are the wild card. We just need to get the $40M off the books in 2020 with Hanley and Pablo. Throw in another $20M for Porcello. $60M seems like a lot toco me off the books after the 2019 season, but it's not that simple. We need to pay Sale ($13.5M to $33.5m?) We need to pay or replace Bogey at SS for 2020 (maybe his final arb cost might be $15M, and he may want over $25M a year). THornburg is up, too. Just keeping these two alone will likely eat up over half of the available $60M. Even if Porcello does not do well from now until 2020,w e'll still need to replace him or hope Wright/Groome can fill in, and this is assuming we keep Pom and he is staying healthy and doing well. Lots of assumptions as you look farther and farther ahead. Now, count the projected massive arb raises for 2020... Betts- final arb year (3 of 3) JBJ- final arb year (4 of 4) Plus, Vazquez, Wright, Smith & Leon have their last arbs. i think we can probably squeeze under the $20M penalty penalty limit until we reach 2021, but only if we do not add anymore big contracts from outside the system. Getting help from Wright and/or Groome may be essential. Getting help from Devers is just about mandatory. Getting help from 2 of these players may also be essential: Travis, Chavis, Ockimey, Dalbec. This may be hoping for too much.

I've been talking about Frazier for a couple of years, but I'm not so sure anymore... Season 1st half splits/ second half splits 2017-- .782/ TBD 2016-- .782/.749 2015-- .922/.644 2014-- .853/.707 2013-- .730/.708 2012-- .901/.775 2011-- N/A/ .733 Streaks and norms are broken all the time, but it concerns me that Frazier has dropped off in the second half every single season of his career. Plus, his base line first half this year is second worst in his career. He's .044 below his career first half numbers. If he ends up .044 below his career second half numbers, we're looking at him finishing the season with us at .677. Career splits: 1st half: .826 2nd half: .721 It may not end up at .677, but is .677 going to be a significant improvement over Lin/Marrero/Rutledge/Holt? Enough to give up a decent prospect or two?

Get your pom -poms out!

Great start from Ball today: 7 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 7 K. Whenever Ball has performed really well, he follows it up with a clunker. Let's hope he can string two outstanding starts together this time. Quick... trade 'em before his stock falls... LOL

Doubleheader for the Sea Dogs... Holt 1 for 2 (2 BBs) Devers 2 for 5 (1 BB) Chavis 3 for 7

Interesting to see that despite their win tonight, the Cubs are just barely closer to first place than last place in the NL Central.

We're in the process now...

And since HRam can't play 1B, there's not even a slot for Pablo to DH, even if he could hit. Cut Pablo loose. Just rip the Band Aid off. Lin & Marrero can carry us to the trade deadline... maybe even beyond.

He's been in the system for 6 years. I'm not saying no player ever does significantly better in the majors, but it is very rare for a .638 career minor leaguer with almost 2000 PAs to suddenly "get it" at the big league level. I'm not saying I want to demote him or trade him, but I'm trusting the 1954 PA sample size over the 36 one. Keep playing Lin. There's no rush to do anything right now, but even 3 more weeks of good hitting by Lin will not convince me he is the answer for us at 3B this year. He may end up being our utility IF'er someday. He has some other useful tools. As far as his hit tool goes, his sample size is going to have to be way larger than even 100 PAs for me to become a believer.

So, you'd prefer 2 last place finishes over 3 last place finishes surrounding a ring. To each his own, I guess.

You can swing at a few more first pitches and still drive the pitch counts up. Just enough to keep pitchers honest. Plus, with deeper and better pens these days, maybe keeping some starters out there longer is better than facing some teams' 6th or 7th inning RP'ers. The league has adjusted to situation, so we need to adjust to the adjustment.

Kevin Durant left $9M on the table, not counting all the extra taxes he pays in CA. Mauer left money on the table to stay in MN. It happens occasionally.

Agreed, but I think oldtimer was looking at the utility position for mostly this year, and Marco is out all year. With the possible return of Holt, trading Lin while his stock is high has some merit, but only if we get a healthy 3Bman.

A 36 PA sample size should never make anyone untouchable.

It never makes sense, if you make a habit of it, and the opponents use it against you.

First, get the ring.

Players like Devers, Groome and Travis represent a big part of any hopes to turn that pending cliff into a hill. In 4-5 years, we must avoid finishing in last place 2 times in a row, or we'll be hearing about DD like we do now for Ben for years to come.

Pedey is legendary for rarely swinging at first pitches. It works for him. I don't think it works as well for other Sox hitters. That's my point. (I wouldn't mind seeing Pedey swing at more first pitches as well.)

Our window is 3- maybe 4- years not one. There is a strong probability Devers can help in 2- maybe 3- of those years at a minimal financial cost. Trading for a 2 month rental helps us for just one playoff cycle, and even then most likely at a very small winning probability increase in this one year. I do think we should trade for a rental, but not one that will cost us Devers, Groome or Travis.

My frustration during the game was our guys unwillingness to swing at first pitch fast ball strikes, then later swinging at pitches out of the zone. Agreed. We have to keep opposing pitchers honest by swinging at a few first pitches. Pedey's gotten away with it just about his whole career, but I'm not sure most others can.

I'd rather not see us run into as many outs as we did in the first half either.

Pedey had a long slump, too, so I'm not sure I would single him out as the one consistent hitter. I don't see us trading for an OF'er. Our OF is solid. With beni heating up, how can anyone want to bench an OF'er? We are not going to bench HRam, and if HRam can't play 1B, that leaves 3B or 1B as the only natural upgrade positions. (Maybe Catcher is a distant 3rd.)

I can't remember the last time we went any period of time longer than a day or two with 11 or 13 RP'ers. We always go with 12. Holt does not allow us to send Travis down. We need Travis at 1b vs LHPs. While Holt's splits are about even over his career, I'll take Travis in a heartbeat. Even with Pablo, Hernandez and Rutledge out hurt, I don't see Holt as being any big upgrade over Lin or Marrero at 3B, SS or 2B. Coming off and injury makes the choice even closer (and easier). I'll take Young as our OF sub over Holt vs RHPs or LHPs at this point. Maybe marrero and/or Lin come back down to earth soon, but as of right now, I would not send either down for Holt or Pablo.

It is also worth noting that Chris Young is not having a strong season. He could be replaced, perhaps by Holt if Holt starts hitting again. Young is one or two big games away from his recent norms. One good thing is that he's hitting RHPs better than in a long long time (.807 OPS). Now, if he could start hitting lefties like he used to, he could end up with his best year ever, assuming he gets some PAs somehow. (He's .627 vs LHPs this year--way way way below his great numbers over the last few years.) With HRam as the permanent DH, it's hard to find enough PAs for Young, unless we platoon Beni. (JBJ is hitting lefties very well this year.) Beni is heating up, so I don't see us platooning him for very long.