moonslav59

.781 is not "outstanding". I don't think Jacoby was ever a great defender. His speed made up for slow starts, bad routes and other mistakes. The metrics showed he was pretty good on D, but I always felt like once his speed fell off a little, so would his D. He also had a noddle arm, and in Fenway Park, that's a big disadvantage. Yes, CF is an important defensive position, but it's not like SS. Other than 2011, he never had an OPS above .781. He was only over .770 twice in his 5 seasons with 300+ PAs. He was under .730 in 2 of his 5 seasons. He had over 325 PAs in only 4 of his last 6 seasons in Boston. He was about at .750 before 2011 and .750 for the two seasons after 2011 with Boston. You don't pay .750 that kind of money. Warning signs abounded.

I think we'll get Duda or Hosmer, but we'll want to go as short range as possible. I think that means Duda.

I don't like Moreland all that much. There are some other low level/mid range guys out there beside him. I think we go for a big bat, but it might have to be by trade.

For some reason, the game didn't tape for me today. I missed seeing a Sox game for the first time in years. Can anyone fill me in on how many mental blunders we made today?

Okay, I'll take you up on the offer and let some of my OCD shine... I don't think batting Bogey 3rd and Moreland 4th was to appease their comfort zones. I know Moreland did not have experience in those slots prior to this season. The "comfort" argument doesn't hold any water with Moreland. The other one, JBJ, has been jerked around batting slots more than anyone, so I doubt he feels comfortable in any slot more than another due to experience. Bogey did have experience batting 3rd before this year, and it has been his best slot over his career, but even with a higher than norm SLG batting 3rd, .457 is not what you want from your 3-6 slot hitters. Here are the numbers: Moreland Career Slot PA OPS 6th 745 .709 (676 PA before this year) 7th 729 .709 (694 before this year) 5th 576 .770 (447 before this year) 8th 413 .905 (402 before this year) 9th 347 .774 4th 265 .769 (88 before this year) 3rd 57 .490 2nd 49 .582 2017 Slot PA OPS 4th 177 .720 5th 129 .713 6th 69 .818 7th 35 .669 8th 12 1.300 Now, I am not assuming every batter would have done better than Moreland in the 4 slot. He did well for us out of the gate, and to end up with a .720 and .713 OPS from the 4 and 5 slots means he must have slumped horribly for quite some time to offset that great start. Counting Devers and Nunez, we currently have 9 players with a season OPS above those two numbers. Bogaerts also started out hot. To me, he should have started in the 1 or 2 slot due to his high OBP and low SLG. In a tiny sample size (39 PAs) Bogey has an .839 OPS batting lead-off. (.819 up 3rd) I understand his numbers batting 3rd aren’t bad at all, but his OPS is driven by his OBP NOT his SLG. JBJ has bounced around the line-up. He's not been given a chance to get comfortable anywhere. Here's a look at our players by batting slots: 2015-2017 OPS PA Player 1st .849 1459 Betts (345 OBP) .839 39 Bogey (.410 OBP) .813 403 Pedey (.372 OBP) .749 121 Holt (.347 OBP) Looks clear to me, Betts should not lead off, when we have better OBP players available, and both have worse power than Betts.) 2nd .841 71 Betts .792 980 Pedey .752 240 Beni .723 281 Holt .698 271 Bogey 3rd .988 91 Pedey .819 1114 Bogey .839 432 Papi .845 41 Beni .799 170 Betts .754 59 HRam 4th 1.049 786 PAPi .892 163 Betts (He should bat 2nd or 4thf or obvious reasons) .784 545 HRam .722 80 Beni .720 177 Moreland .649 68 T Shaw 5th .829 773 HRam (looks like his best slot) .720 55 Beni .706 62 Bogey .713 129 Moreland .660 75 Young .566 164 JBJ (Never gets a chance above the 5 s lot) 6th 1.143 39 Beni .868 132 JBJ .818 69 Moreland .740 65 Holt .758 51 HRam .694 131 Bogey .594 103 Young .581 55 Leon 7th .809 155 Young .797 234 JBJ .748 89 Swihart .704 264 Holt .669 35 Moreland .661 84 Leon .570 71 Bogey .426 48 Vaz 8th 1.096 57 Young .821 141 JBJ .762 161 Swihart .776 125 Bogey .745 295 Leon .723 65 Holt .669 223 Vaz 9th .933 92 Beni .895 371 JBJ .712 181 Leon .706 90 Hernandez .647 125 Swihart .648 95 Holt Here are out top OPS players from 2015-2017 (3500+ Pas) that are still on the team: .846 Betts .809 JBJ (Our 2nd best hitter never hits higher than 5th!) .807 Pedey .802 Young .802 Beni .799 HRam .776 Bogey .745 Moreland (This is the guy we bat 4th and 5th!) .714 Swihart .706 Leon .649 Vaz As streaky as JBJ has been, he’s still got a better 2017 OPS than Moreland & Bogey, yet he never bats 1-4, even when hot. 2017 OPS .807 Beni (Just passed Betts today!) .805 Betts .784 Pedey .780 HRam .756 JBJ .751 Young .749 Moreland .730 Bogey Okay there, I got my OCD vent out of the way for the day.

Agreed, but these two were supposed to be our 4th and 6th starters this year. They've done good to great jobs in those roles. The problem is that injuries to Price and inconsistency by Porcello have thrust these two into the 2-3 slots of our rotation. Now we do need 7 innings from both, but I'm not sure it's realistic to expect even more from these two that what they've given us. I think trading for Reed and the return of Kelly (and maybe Smith) was supposed to help us out with better 7th inning RP'ers (by attrition), but so far, that has not happened. I hate to say it, but I think this season may come down to our pen- the position I felt was our weakest- not weak- position before the season started.

Even if you don't count the Nunez out as a "blunder", how many blunders does a team have to commit game in and game out before something gets done about it? I'm not just talking about running into outs either. We have players forgetting how many outs there are, throwing to the wrong base, and all sorts of imaginative ways to screw up. Like I said, I'm totally done with JF. I know the players are to blame as well, but this isn't the time to trade the whole team away. I don't care if we sweep every playoff series. JF should go once the season ends. If I knew of someone now who could step in, I'd fire JF now. Just because we won 8 in row, doesn't mean we should ignore the increasing amount of mental mistakes made per game. I never thought it was possible to get even worse than we were before these last few weeks, but we have. Maybe it just my perception. I could be wrong. Maybe I'm just noticing blunders more than before, but I'm pretty sure I have watched every play of every game pretty damn closely.

My guess is we will add Brentz to the 40 man roster by the end of the month. We'll probably DFA Selsky, Noe Ramire, Henry Owens or Rutledge. He'll probably be called up in September, maybe get a few chances to PH or DH, maybe get a game in LF or two. If he gets a few instant hits, he may begin to see more and more opportunities. He'll be given a very short leash, and with that sort of pressure, I'm not that confident he will deliver, but he's hot as hell right now. (He may not be in 2 weeks.)

I think his big hit in the playoffs has inflated his perceived value. Remember the last guy we signed based on previous WS heroics?

You're right. I over-valued him. That makes it even more advantageous for us to sign Duda over Moustakas, who will want more money and more years.

Not even close for me. His health history was an in issue before the signing.

To me, 2013 was one of the most obvious outlier seasons since Brady Anderson's 51 HR year. The fact that we had JBJ was just a minor consideration for me. I don't want to start a JE bashing post, but his speed was a big part of his offense and defense, and players like him rarely age well. Jacoby gave us a lot of value over his time with us, but he only hit exceptionally well one year. Throw that year out and his numbers with us were not even top 5 on his own team. I was glad we did not re-sign him, and at the time, I said, "I wouldn't have paid him half of what the Yanks gave him." I'm not sue he'll even lived up to that amount. I was even happier to see the Yanks were the the team to waste all that money on him.

EE had better and more consistent numbers, but he was 2 years older, if I'm not mistaken. $20M a year might be the limit, but he might get more years. Neither is a good fielder.

Duda will be 32 by the time next year starts. He'll probably be cheaper than Moustakas and may take less years. Who knows. Here's some data: 42 1Bmen with 1000+ PAs since 2014; .835 OPS (8th best for 1Bmen) 130 wRC+ (8th best) .240 ISO (5th best) Pretty impressive when compared to other 1Bmen- a position that is not easy to place this highly in. What will he get? Will he take a 1 or 2 year deal? My guess is, he might get close $100M/4. I might offer $28M/1 or $55M/2. If Hosmer and Moustakas are off the boards, I might go up to $90M/4 or more. (If a close to equal and cheaper 1Bman can be gotten through trade, I'd listen.)

He turns 29 real soon. He's never hit over 22 HRs until this year's 32. He's been over .800 for 3 years in a row, so I won't hold his .730 career OPS against him, but I'm just not sure he's that "big bat" we need. 35 3Bmen with 1000+ PAs since 2015- his best 3 years (cherry-picked): .836 OPS 9th best 121 xRC+ 9th best at 3B Out of 27 3Bmen with 1500 innings since 2015, Moustakas... UZR/150: +1.6 (16th place) DRS: -2 (17th place) I would not give what I think Moustakas will get. I think hew ills eek 5+ years and will likely get it. Maybe $120M/5. I don't really want to move Devers to 1B just yet, either. I think I'd rather go for Duda. He might make less. To answer your question: I might offer around $25M/1 or maybe $45M/2. If we can't get Duda or Hosmer, and he's all we can get, I might go as high as $100/5. Don't hold me to that. I'd rather wait until this winter to decide what I'd really like us to do.

Not me. Not Jacoby. Not ever for that amount. Not at any age.

I've never said I hate anyone in my whole life, even in anger. That being said... I hate Farrell.

Yes. He had a very good OBP for a few months. The one or two slots were made for Bogey, at least when he's not slumping.

With Price's health in doubt, and Porcello's ability to keep it in the park in doubt, ERod could end up being a very key piece in our run for a ring.

No debate.

He may get to an .800 OPS before too long. (He's at .793 after tonight.)

Selsky. Maybe Rutledge. Noe Ramirez. Henry Owens.

I always try to take the long look, or at least "longer". I rarely get pissed off about one game, especially coming off a nice winning streak. What happened tonight was sickening. I know you can't blame JF for Nunez making a fundamental mistake. Nunez just joined the team not long ago, but running into that out in the ninth wasn't the first mental blunder of the game. It wasn't even the second one. I don't want to go on and on, but I'm totally done with JF. I get how this isn't the time to make a change, but I'm totally done.

He was much higher and slumped for too long of a time before being moved down. He doesn't have the power to bat 3-5. It's not a big deal by itself.

Beni da MAN!