moonslav59

The new CBA has taxes, extra surcharge taxes, and extra penalties. The limit (not "cap") next year is $217M. If a team goes over that limit, they pay a 12% tax plus a "luxury tax" of 20% year 1, 30% year 2 or 50% year 3 (consecutive). So, the tax is actually: Year 1: 32% Year 2: 42% Year 3: 62% That's on all money over the limit- not the whole budget.) Next comes the "surcharge": if a team goes over the limit by $20M or more, there is an additional charge on that money only, of %42.5% year 1 and 45% year 2. It's possible to see a situation where a team pays over 80% or even 100% on certain moneys spent above certain limits. These numbers are not something even filthy rich people shrug their shoulders at, unless the team is just going over some of these limits by a tiny amount. A 107% tax on 2 million is not going to break a guy like Henry, of even scare him that much, but those dollars are above and beyond a massive amount of taxes already paid before reaching the maximum penalties. Here's the scariest part: beginning in 2018, there will be an extra penalty for teams in that second category. A team that spends above $20M over the luxury limit, it will also have its top draft pick lowered ten spots, unless that pick is in the top six, in which case the team’s second pick will be lowered ten spots. If the Sox move down from the 28th pick to the 38th, it won't kill us, but it could further affect our ability to rebuild for 2020 and beyond, which is what this thread is about.

Nunez OPS+ in recent years ... (starting with 2017 and going backwards) 115 (224 with Sox) 103 107 Other Sox players: Betts:109, 133, 117 J B J: 100, 118, 119 Bogey: 96, 111, 107 Pedey: 107, 117, 112 HRam: 101, 126, 89 Moreland: 97, 88, 116 FYI: Big FA Bats for this winter? 1B Hosmer: 126, 101, 122 Alonso: 141, 89, 109 L Duda: 155, 91, 130 Santana: 102, 123, 102 Morrison: 141, 100, 92 3B Moustakas: 119, 108, 119 OF (DH) JD Martinez: 157, 144, 139 Upton: 133, 108, 119 Bruce: 118, 112, 97 Best bats available are probably Duda, Martinez or Hosmer with Upton and Moustakas as the only 5 guys with 2 out of the last 3 seasons having an OPS+ at 119 or above or one of the last 3 seasons above 150. If we could sign Duda and Nunez, I feel our offense would look very good next year. I'd prefer JD Martinez, but I don't see him playing 1B, if HRam needs to DH only. If we want to get out of HRam's vesting option we could basically platoon him at DH with Nunez. 2018: 1. Pedey 2B 2. Nunez DH v R/LF v L 3. Duda 1B 4. Betts RF 5. Devers 3B v R/ HRam 1B v L 6. Beni LF v R/ Bogey SS v L 7. JBJ CF R/ Devers 3B v L 8. Bogey SS v R/ JBJ CF v L 9. Vaz (Leon) Bench: Beni (v L) or HRam (v R) Holt Hernandez, Marrero, Lin or Brentz Leon

Looking at how we could see Sale get the maximum amount of playoff starts without pitching on short rest, except for the WS going 7 games, here's what I came up with: The Div Series goes 3 games: Sale, Pom, off, Porc, 4 days off The Champ Series goes 5 games: Sale, Pom, off, Porc, Erod, Sale, 5 days off The WS goes 7 games: Sale, Pom, off, Porc, Sale (short rest), ERod, off, Pom (+1), Sale (short rest) Total games started: 6 Sale 4 Pom 3 Porc 2 ERod

I'm very optimistic about our chances this year, despite the Dodgers looking indestructible this year. I'm glad they are in the NL.

I'm not saying managers can't and don't make a difference. I'm saying depending on JF to suddenly begin helping this team with the choices he makes is not something I believe will happen. I don't think tigers change their stripes, at least overnight.

Good read, but the article is about optimism for 2017 not 2020 and beyond, which is what this thread is about.

I don't think Betts will come close to $400M/10 let alone $500M. My idea was to try to lock him up this winter. The arb years would likely cost $45-50M anyways, so roll those numbers and years into a 10 or 12 year offer. This would help lower the overall AVV and luxury tax cost after the 3 year arb window ends, which happens to be when we will be hitting a wall with the tax budget. People keep saying, "There is no cap." This is correct, but there are very extreme penalties for going $20-30M over the luxury tax limit that involves lowering draft slots and restricting international draft pool money. I seriously doubt any team will ever reach that penalty limit. We will be able to go over the luxury limit without major penalties for a couple years, but once we reach year 3 and 4, with all the expensive arbs and re-signings needed, every dollar will likely count. Back to Betts, if he's worth $35-40M per year after his 3 arb years are over, then we may end up losing him, but I'd try to get him to go for the instant security of signing a 10 year deal this winter. $45M for the 3 arb years combined + $35M x 7 years after arb= $290M/10. make it $300M/10, and maybe he'll bite. Include a $20M signing bonus, so he can live mega-large sooner rather than later. If he says no, I might negotiate higher or offer other perks like an opt out after 4 or 5 years and bonuses based on high performances. If he says no to that, then we'll have to just see what happens in 3 years. I might look to lock up JBJ and sale, if Betts says no.

I don't have them anymore. My old computer s*** the bed and I lost everything. Years ago, I did a study of how the pitcher did when pitching the day after Wake vs the same team. I compared his game ERA with his yearly ERA that season. I know, it's kind of a crude study, but I went back over Wake's entire career with Boston, so the sample size was rather large. There was a significant differential between post Wake games vs non post Wake games. I think it was just under a run per game.

I think every pitcher should be exposed to both catcher for enough time to gain a "comfort level". One example that irked the hell out of me was when VTek was used with Beckett almost exclusively, but when the playoffs started, the manager decided he wanted more offense, and so he started VMart at catcher. I'm not saying VMart was the reason Beckett got lit up, but I hated the choice (before it happened).

Why assume he suddenly will start "helping"?

Tito did have extreme loyalty, but he had a brain. He lost the team at the end. I don't blame him for maybe being distracted. I did not call for Tito's removal. I was the last to call for Bobby V's removal, so it's not like I'm the kind of guy who wants to fire every manager. I wanted JF gone long ago, and this winning stretch does not change a thing. Just because some stupid moves happen to work (in bunches at times) doesn't mean the choices were smart.

I think Reed is our #2 and Barnes is our #3. It looked like Kelly had won the #2 slot before he went on the DL. I wonder, if he can pass Barnes again before the end of this season.

Two years ago, Young was signed to $6.5M x 2 to be our 4th Of'er and platoon DH/OF vs LHPs. My guess is Nunez, who should start FT next year (maybe at various positions) will get more than $13M/2. I'd love to have Nunez back, but we may spend too much on a big bat 1Bman this winter, and I'm not sure how much Henry is willing to go over the tax limit. The tax will be low next year, so maybe 2018 will be the year we go way over. It might be hard to sign impact players to one year deals, and once we get to 2019 and beyond, the budget and tax are much more tricky.

Sometimes you can even go with 3 starters, but today's playoff schedules have less days off than in the past. If you finish a series early, you can come back with your top 3 to start the next series, which helps skew the total numbers towards your top 2-3 starts getting more starts. The first round (assuming no WC playoff game is needed) goes like this: 2 games day off 2 games day off 1 game day off (assuming it goes 5 games) ALCS starts: 2 games 1 day off 3 games 1 day off 2 games 2 days off (assuming a 7 game series) 2 games 1 day off 3 games 1 day off 2 games So, let's assume our starters are ranked as such: Sale Pomeranz Porcello Price-ERod We might see this: 1 Sale 2 Pom day off 3 Porc 4 ERod (or Sale -1 day rest) day off 5 Sale (+1 rest) day off (assuming 5 game win) 1 Pom 2 Porc day off 3 Sale 4 ERod 5 Pom day off 6 Porc 7 Sale day off day off WS begins 1 Pom 2 Sale day off 3 Porc (+2 rest) 4 ERod 5 Pom (or Sale -1 rest) day off 6 Sale (+1) 7 Porc Total playoff games started, assuming every series goes to the final game: 6 Sale 4 Pom 4 Porc 3 ERod or Price

I've always been a huge believer in how much a catcher influences a pitcher's success or not. The old CERA arguments got out of hand as many used the numbers inappropriately. CERA should not be used to compare catcher across the league or from different teams and different years. That being said, here are the Sox CERA numbers: (Note: some small sample sizes here due to the personal caddy nature of our catcher usage.) CERA (IP) Leon vs Vaz 2.19 (156)/ 13.50 (5.1) with Sale [Note: 3.02 w Flowers (552), 2.51 w AJP (226), 3.53 Avila (112)]P 4.59(139)/ 7.11 (6.1) with Porcello [Career: 4.09 (273) Leon, 4.55 (113 Swihart), 3.86 (100) Vaz, 4.17 Avila (578), 4.32 (296) Laird, 5.38 (82) Holaday] 13.50 (4)/ 3.01 (117) with Pomeranz [Career: 3.01 (117) Vaz, 7.12 Leon (24), 3.32 (41) Holaday, 1.99 (131) Norris, 5.73 (71) Rosario] 4.55 (87)/ 4.55 (87), Hanigan 3.78 (50), 4.08 (71) Swihart w ERod (career only) 3.23 (109)/ 4.30 (163) w Price career only [2.85 (473) Molina, 3.06 (191) Jaso, 3.61 (162) Shoppach, 3.09 (128) Navarro] 1.74 (21)/ 4.32 (33) w Barnes [Career: 4.32 (60) Leon, 3.30 (60) Vaz, 4.50 (30) Swihart, 5.93 (27) Swi] 2.16 (25)/ 4.38 (25) w Hembree [Career: 3.69 (46) Leon, 3.71 (51) Vaz, 1.83 (20) Hanigan, 1.20 (15) Swi] 1.64 (22)/ 1.35 (27) w Kimbrel [Career: 2.38 (42) Leon, 1.62 (44) Vaz, 1.82 (158) McCann, 2.06 (48) Gattis, 2.01 (45) Norris, 0.00 (41) D Ross!!!] Career Only: Kelly 2.67 (27) Leon, 2.62 (55) Vaz, 2.81 (176) Molina, 4.83 (91) Hanigan, 4.44 (77) T Cruz, 5.10 (60) Swihart, 3.94 (32) D Ross Abad 6.23 Leon (17), 2.59 (24) Vaz, 4.22 (43) Castro, 2.75 (36) Suzuki, 2.06 (35) Norris, 3.03 (30) Vogt

I've always been a huge believer in how much a catcher influences a pitcher's success or not. The old CERA arguments got out of hand as many used the numbers inappropriately. CERA should not be used to compare catcher across the league or from different teams and different years. That being said, here are the Sox CERA numbers: (Note: some small sample sizes here due to the personal caddy nature of our catcher usage.) CERA (IP) Leon vs Vaz 2.19 (156)/ 13.50 (5.1) with Sale [Note: 3.02 w Flowers (552), 2.51 w AJP (226), 3.53 Avila (112)]P 4.59(139)/ 7.11 (6.1) with Porcello [Career: 4.09 (273) Leon, 4.55 (113 Swihart), 3.86 (100) Vaz, 4.17 Avila (578), 4.32 (296) Laird, 5.38 (82) Holaday] 13.50 (4)/ 3.01 (117) with Pomeranz [Career: 3.01 (117) Vaz, 7.12 Leon (24), 3.32 (41) Holaday, 1.99 (131) Norris, 5.73 (71) Rosario] 4.55 (87)/ 4.55 (87), Hanigan 3.78 (50), 4.08 (71) Swihart w ERod (career only) 3.23 (109)/ 4.30 (163) w Price career only [2.85 (473) Molina, 3.06 (191) Jaso, 3.61 (162) Shoppach, 3.09 (128) Navarro] 1.74 (21)/ 4.32 (33) w Barnes [Career: 4.32 (60) Leon, 3.30 (60) Vaz, 4.50 (30) Swihart, 5.93 (27) Swi] 2.16 (25)/ 4.38 (25) w Hembree [Career: 3.69 (46) Leon, 3.71 (51) Vaz, 1.83 (20) Hanigan, 1.20 (15) Swi] 1.64 (22)/ 1.35 (27) w Kimbrel [Career: 2.38 (42) Leon, 1.62 (44) Vaz, 1.82 (158) McCann, 2.06 (48) Gattis, 2.01 (45) Norris, 0.00 (41) D Ross!!!] Career Only: Kelly 2.67 (27) Leon, 2.62 (55) Vaz, 2.81 (176) Molina, 4.83 (91) Hanigan, 4.44 (77) T Cruz, 5.10 (60) Swihart, 3.94 (32) D Ross Abad 6.23 Leon (17), 2.59 (24) Vaz, 4.22 (43) Castro, 2.75 (36) Suzuki, 2.06 (35) Norris, 3.03 (30) Vogt

We often hear posters speak of line-up balance or avoiding multiple "black holes". The Sox offense has taken some flack this season, but here are some interesting numbers. Looking at the top 9 hitters by PAs on this team, none are below .701. Counting Nunez, none of the top 8 are below .747. (Listed in order of 2017 PAs) .803 Betts .776 Beni .747 Bogey .753 Moreland .769 HRam .768 JBJ .784 Pedey >(.819 Nunez in 347 PAs- 2 teams) .701 Vaz .760 Young Counting Nunez we have the 10 top PA players above .701, and Devers going nutty out of the gate. Let's look at the other top winning teams in MLB. How "balanced" are they? LA Dodgers: 7th in PAs, Logan Forsythe .683 9th, Chase Utley .750 11th, AGon .643 Houston Astros: 5th, Carlos Beltran .716 9th, B McCann .745 Washington Nationals: 5th, Matt Wietes .677 6th, Trea Turner .746 9th, Wilmer Difo .716 Colorado Rockies 5th, Carlos Gonzalez .642 6th, Trevor Story .716 7th, Ian Desmond .717 9th, Tony Wolters .642 Arizona Diamondbacks 4th, Chris Owings .741 8th, Chris Herrmann .583 9th, Gregor Blanco .727 Cleveland Guardians 6th, Jason Kipnis .683 7th, Yan Gomes .672 11th, Roberto Perez .524 Chicago Cubs 4th, Addison Russell .722 5th, Kyle Schwarber .739 7th, Ben Zobrist .677 8th, Jason Heyward .713 NY Yankess 3rd, Chase Headley .749 5th, Matt Holliday .748 8th, J. Ellsbury .684 10th, R Torreyes .678 11th, Chris Carter .653 12th, A Romine .579 Now, granted someone could do a study on how many of these teams have players over .850 or .900, and we'd look like chumps, but lets let go of the black hole talk. While Vaz's .701 OPS could fall quickly, our other hitters, especially with Nunez & Devers playing everyday look pretty solid. Not spectacular, but pretty solid.

No, the players need to "get it done". JF is not going to help at all.

Winning has a way of doing that to those easily influenced be short sample size results. IMO, JF has made several poor choices during this winning stretch, and it doesn't change the fact that we can and often do, win despite JF, not because of him.

I think it is. Hitters can "lose their timing" when facing a knuckle ball pitcher. Once a hitter loses his timing, it may be a while before he gets it back. How a pitcher might pitch a batter before a great hitter is up next is a way different situation and argument. If people really believe that "clutch hitters" exist, I'm assuming because they must "try harder" when it counts, then why wouldn't those same people believe that a pitcher would "try extra hard" to get someone out right before a big hitter? One might expect a pitcher would have better numbers on the same batters in situations where they are being "protected" by a big bat behind them vs not having "protection". (I think this has all been rehashed several times. There are believers and disbelievers. I'm not sure anyone is ever going to sway the other side on anything here.)

Again, unless HRam is injured, he will not be platooned and play vs just LHPs. IMO, he will play 1B when Pedey DHs and Moreland will sit.

We often hear posters speak of line-up balance or avoiding multiple "black holes". The Sox offense has taken some flack this season, but here are some interesting numbers. Looking at the top 9 hitters by PAs on this team, none are below .701. Counting Nunez, none of the top 8 are below .747. (Listed in order of 2017 PAs) .803 Betts .776 Beni .747 Bogey .753 Moreland .769 HRam .768 JBJ .784 Pedey >(.819 Nunez in 347 PAs- 2 teams) .701 Vaz .760 Young Counting Nunez we have the 10 top PA players above .710, and Devers going nutty out of the gate. Let's look at the other top winning teams in MLB. How "balanced" are they? LA Dodgers: 7th in PAs, Logan Forsythe .683 9th, Chase Utley .750 11th, AGon .643 Houston Astros: 5th, Carlos Beltran .716 9th, B McCann .745 Washington Nationals: 5th, Matt Wietes .677 6th, Trea Turner .746 9th, Wilmer Difo .716 Colorado Rockies 5th, Carlos Gonzalez .642 6th, Trevor Story .716 7th, Ian Desmond .717 9th, Tony Wolters .642 Arizona Diamondbacks 4th, Chris Owings .741 8th, Chris Herrmann .583 Cleveland Guardians 6th, Jason Kipnis .683 7th, Yan Gomes .672 11th, Roberto Perez .524 Chicago Cubs 4th, Addison Russell .722 5th, Kyle Schwarber .739 7th, Ben Zobrist .677 8th, Jason Heyward .713 NY Yankess 3rd, Chase Headley .749 5th, Matt Holliday .748 8th, J. Ellsbury .684 10th, R Torreyes .678 11th, Chris Carter .653 12th, A Romine .579 Now, granted someone could do a study on how many of these teams have players over .850 or .900, and we'd look like chumps, but lets let go of the black hole talk. While Vaz's .701 OPS could fall quickly, our other hitters, especially with Nunez & Devers playing everyday look pretty solid. Not spectacular, but pretty solid. 9th, Gregor Blanco .727

Oh, and the 16 Ks were sweet!

Nice to see Sale bounce back in a big way after that horrible last start. Nice to see Bogey showing signs of heating up. Nunez is el fuego! Everyone but Leon got a hit, a run or an RBI. Not bad for a 2 run game.

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