moonslav59

Sometimes you can even go with 3 starters, but today's playoff schedules have less days off than in the past. If you finish a series early, you can come back with your top 3 to start the next series, which helps skew the total numbers towards your top 2-3 starts getting more starts. The first round (assuming no WC playoff game is needed) goes like this: 2 games day off 2 games day off 1 game day off (assuming it goes 5 games) ALCS starts: 2 games 1 day off 3 games 1 day off 2 games 2 days off (assuming a 7 game series) 2 games 1 day off 3 games 1 day off 2 games So, let's assume our starters are ranked as such: Sale Pomeranz Porcello Price-ERod We might see this: 1 Sale 2 Pom day off 3 Porc 4 ERod (or Sale -1 day rest) day off 5 Sale (+1 rest) day off (assuming 5 game win) 1 Pom 2 Porc day off 3 Sale 4 ERod 5 Pom day off 6 Porc 7 Sale day off day off WS begins 1 Pom 2 Sale day off 3 Porc (+2 rest) 4 ERod 5 Pom (or Sale -1 rest) day off 6 Sale (+1) 7 Porc Total playoff games started, assuming every series goes to the final game: 6 Sale 4 Pom 4 Porc 3 ERod or Price

I've always been a huge believer in how much a catcher influences a pitcher's success or not. The old CERA arguments got out of hand as many used the numbers inappropriately. CERA should not be used to compare catcher across the league or from different teams and different years. That being said, here are the Sox CERA numbers: (Note: some small sample sizes here due to the personal caddy nature of our catcher usage.) CERA (IP) Leon vs Vaz 2.19 (156)/ 13.50 (5.1) with Sale [Note: 3.02 w Flowers (552), 2.51 w AJP (226), 3.53 Avila (112)]P 4.59(139)/ 7.11 (6.1) with Porcello [Career: 4.09 (273) Leon, 4.55 (113 Swihart), 3.86 (100) Vaz, 4.17 Avila (578), 4.32 (296) Laird, 5.38 (82) Holaday] 13.50 (4)/ 3.01 (117) with Pomeranz [Career: 3.01 (117) Vaz, 7.12 Leon (24), 3.32 (41) Holaday, 1.99 (131) Norris, 5.73 (71) Rosario] 4.55 (87)/ 4.55 (87), Hanigan 3.78 (50), 4.08 (71) Swihart w ERod (career only) 3.23 (109)/ 4.30 (163) w Price career only [2.85 (473) Molina, 3.06 (191) Jaso, 3.61 (162) Shoppach, 3.09 (128) Navarro] 1.74 (21)/ 4.32 (33) w Barnes [Career: 4.32 (60) Leon, 3.30 (60) Vaz, 4.50 (30) Swihart, 5.93 (27) Swi] 2.16 (25)/ 4.38 (25) w Hembree [Career: 3.69 (46) Leon, 3.71 (51) Vaz, 1.83 (20) Hanigan, 1.20 (15) Swi] 1.64 (22)/ 1.35 (27) w Kimbrel [Career: 2.38 (42) Leon, 1.62 (44) Vaz, 1.82 (158) McCann, 2.06 (48) Gattis, 2.01 (45) Norris, 0.00 (41) D Ross!!!] Career Only: Kelly 2.67 (27) Leon, 2.62 (55) Vaz, 2.81 (176) Molina, 4.83 (91) Hanigan, 4.44 (77) T Cruz, 5.10 (60) Swihart, 3.94 (32) D Ross Abad 6.23 Leon (17), 2.59 (24) Vaz, 4.22 (43) Castro, 2.75 (36) Suzuki, 2.06 (35) Norris, 3.03 (30) Vogt

I've always been a huge believer in how much a catcher influences a pitcher's success or not. The old CERA arguments got out of hand as many used the numbers inappropriately. CERA should not be used to compare catcher across the league or from different teams and different years. That being said, here are the Sox CERA numbers: (Note: some small sample sizes here due to the personal caddy nature of our catcher usage.) CERA (IP) Leon vs Vaz 2.19 (156)/ 13.50 (5.1) with Sale [Note: 3.02 w Flowers (552), 2.51 w AJP (226), 3.53 Avila (112)]P 4.59(139)/ 7.11 (6.1) with Porcello [Career: 4.09 (273) Leon, 4.55 (113 Swihart), 3.86 (100) Vaz, 4.17 Avila (578), 4.32 (296) Laird, 5.38 (82) Holaday] 13.50 (4)/ 3.01 (117) with Pomeranz [Career: 3.01 (117) Vaz, 7.12 Leon (24), 3.32 (41) Holaday, 1.99 (131) Norris, 5.73 (71) Rosario] 4.55 (87)/ 4.55 (87), Hanigan 3.78 (50), 4.08 (71) Swihart w ERod (career only) 3.23 (109)/ 4.30 (163) w Price career only [2.85 (473) Molina, 3.06 (191) Jaso, 3.61 (162) Shoppach, 3.09 (128) Navarro] 1.74 (21)/ 4.32 (33) w Barnes [Career: 4.32 (60) Leon, 3.30 (60) Vaz, 4.50 (30) Swihart, 5.93 (27) Swi] 2.16 (25)/ 4.38 (25) w Hembree [Career: 3.69 (46) Leon, 3.71 (51) Vaz, 1.83 (20) Hanigan, 1.20 (15) Swi] 1.64 (22)/ 1.35 (27) w Kimbrel [Career: 2.38 (42) Leon, 1.62 (44) Vaz, 1.82 (158) McCann, 2.06 (48) Gattis, 2.01 (45) Norris, 0.00 (41) D Ross!!!] Career Only: Kelly 2.67 (27) Leon, 2.62 (55) Vaz, 2.81 (176) Molina, 4.83 (91) Hanigan, 4.44 (77) T Cruz, 5.10 (60) Swihart, 3.94 (32) D Ross Abad 6.23 Leon (17), 2.59 (24) Vaz, 4.22 (43) Castro, 2.75 (36) Suzuki, 2.06 (35) Norris, 3.03 (30) Vogt

We often hear posters speak of line-up balance or avoiding multiple "black holes". The Sox offense has taken some flack this season, but here are some interesting numbers. Looking at the top 9 hitters by PAs on this team, none are below .701. Counting Nunez, none of the top 8 are below .747. (Listed in order of 2017 PAs) .803 Betts .776 Beni .747 Bogey .753 Moreland .769 HRam .768 JBJ .784 Pedey >(.819 Nunez in 347 PAs- 2 teams) .701 Vaz .760 Young Counting Nunez we have the 10 top PA players above .701, and Devers going nutty out of the gate. Let's look at the other top winning teams in MLB. How "balanced" are they? LA Dodgers: 7th in PAs, Logan Forsythe .683 9th, Chase Utley .750 11th, AGon .643 Houston Astros: 5th, Carlos Beltran .716 9th, B McCann .745 Washington Nationals: 5th, Matt Wietes .677 6th, Trea Turner .746 9th, Wilmer Difo .716 Colorado Rockies 5th, Carlos Gonzalez .642 6th, Trevor Story .716 7th, Ian Desmond .717 9th, Tony Wolters .642 Arizona Diamondbacks 4th, Chris Owings .741 8th, Chris Herrmann .583 9th, Gregor Blanco .727 Cleveland Guardians 6th, Jason Kipnis .683 7th, Yan Gomes .672 11th, Roberto Perez .524 Chicago Cubs 4th, Addison Russell .722 5th, Kyle Schwarber .739 7th, Ben Zobrist .677 8th, Jason Heyward .713 NY Yankess 3rd, Chase Headley .749 5th, Matt Holliday .748 8th, J. Ellsbury .684 10th, R Torreyes .678 11th, Chris Carter .653 12th, A Romine .579 Now, granted someone could do a study on how many of these teams have players over .850 or .900, and we'd look like chumps, but lets let go of the black hole talk. While Vaz's .701 OPS could fall quickly, our other hitters, especially with Nunez & Devers playing everyday look pretty solid. Not spectacular, but pretty solid.

No, the players need to "get it done". JF is not going to help at all.

Winning has a way of doing that to those easily influenced be short sample size results. IMO, JF has made several poor choices during this winning stretch, and it doesn't change the fact that we can and often do, win despite JF, not because of him.

I think it is. Hitters can "lose their timing" when facing a knuckle ball pitcher. Once a hitter loses his timing, it may be a while before he gets it back. How a pitcher might pitch a batter before a great hitter is up next is a way different situation and argument. If people really believe that "clutch hitters" exist, I'm assuming because they must "try harder" when it counts, then why wouldn't those same people believe that a pitcher would "try extra hard" to get someone out right before a big hitter? One might expect a pitcher would have better numbers on the same batters in situations where they are being "protected" by a big bat behind them vs not having "protection". (I think this has all been rehashed several times. There are believers and disbelievers. I'm not sure anyone is ever going to sway the other side on anything here.)

Again, unless HRam is injured, he will not be platooned and play vs just LHPs. IMO, he will play 1B when Pedey DHs and Moreland will sit.

We often hear posters speak of line-up balance or avoiding multiple "black holes". The Sox offense has taken some flack this season, but here are some interesting numbers. Looking at the top 9 hitters by PAs on this team, none are below .701. Counting Nunez, none of the top 8 are below .747. (Listed in order of 2017 PAs) .803 Betts .776 Beni .747 Bogey .753 Moreland .769 HRam .768 JBJ .784 Pedey >(.819 Nunez in 347 PAs- 2 teams) .701 Vaz .760 Young Counting Nunez we have the 10 top PA players above .710, and Devers going nutty out of the gate. Let's look at the other top winning teams in MLB. How "balanced" are they? LA Dodgers: 7th in PAs, Logan Forsythe .683 9th, Chase Utley .750 11th, AGon .643 Houston Astros: 5th, Carlos Beltran .716 9th, B McCann .745 Washington Nationals: 5th, Matt Wietes .677 6th, Trea Turner .746 9th, Wilmer Difo .716 Colorado Rockies 5th, Carlos Gonzalez .642 6th, Trevor Story .716 7th, Ian Desmond .717 9th, Tony Wolters .642 Arizona Diamondbacks 4th, Chris Owings .741 8th, Chris Herrmann .583 Cleveland Guardians 6th, Jason Kipnis .683 7th, Yan Gomes .672 11th, Roberto Perez .524 Chicago Cubs 4th, Addison Russell .722 5th, Kyle Schwarber .739 7th, Ben Zobrist .677 8th, Jason Heyward .713 NY Yankess 3rd, Chase Headley .749 5th, Matt Holliday .748 8th, J. Ellsbury .684 10th, R Torreyes .678 11th, Chris Carter .653 12th, A Romine .579 Now, granted someone could do a study on how many of these teams have players over .850 or .900, and we'd look like chumps, but lets let go of the black hole talk. While Vaz's .701 OPS could fall quickly, our other hitters, especially with Nunez & Devers playing everyday look pretty solid. Not spectacular, but pretty solid. 9th, Gregor Blanco .727

Oh, and the 16 Ks were sweet!

Nice to see Sale bounce back in a big way after that horrible last start. Nice to see Bogey showing signs of heating up. Nunez is el fuego! Everyone but Leon got a hit, a run or an RBI. Not bad for a 2 run game.

Fake News

MLBTR ranks the top FAs this winter... https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/08/2017-18-mlb-free-agent-power-rankings-5.html Top 1Bmen/DH available: 2) JD Martinez (OF/DH) 4) Eric Hosmer (1B) 6) Justin Upton (OF/DH) 8) Lorenzo Cain (OF- move Beni to DH) T11) Carlos Santana (1B/DH +) 3B (Move Devers to 1B?) 7) Mike Moustakas SP (We could then trade an excess starter.) 1) Yu Darvish 3) Jake Arrieta 5) Masahiro Tanaka ?) Johnny Cueto T11) Lance Lynn RP 9) Wade Davis 10 Greg Holland

Fake news

I'm just overwhelmed about having... Chris Freakin' Sale!

Marrero's 2 for 3 got him all the way up to .177. Lin went o for 5 and is now down to .247. I'm sure glad we called up Devers and traded for Nunez. Beeks' ERA is down to 3.18. Carson Smith 1 IP 0 H 1 BB 1K 0 ER In AA... Chavis 1 for 4 with an HR (already his 11th in AA!) Barfied 0 for 4 Ockimey 1 for 4 Kevin McAvoy 8 IP 2H 2BB 7K 0 ER (ERA down to 4.21)

Sugar Land, TX - Home of Roger Clemens

I like the line-up, except for one thing (see below). I'm assuming HRam's out due to recovery from the injury or is just getting a rest. Moreland has also shown some signs of snapping out of a long and miserable slump. I'm glad JF didn't bat him 4th or 5th. I would not bat Beni in the top 5 or 6 hitters vs LHPs. He just has not shown the ability to hit lefties well enough to be that high up. JF's obsession with L-R-L near the top of every line-up verges on absurdity. I will say that nobody else jumps out as a clearly better 3rd slot hitter: Bogey still hasn't fully snapped out of his long slump. Devers probably should not bat 3rd (yet). Moreland has not proven he's back to form. I'll never understand batting JBJ last, but I've already beaten that horse to death. (I'd put JBJ up 3rd, if you have to have the L-R-L thing. I'm not upset about Beni up 3rd for the reasons just listed as much as I was for hitting Holt up so high recently. I'm glad Betts is up 4th. I hope he stays there to end the season. When HRam is back, maybe we can see this... 1) Nunez DH 2) Pedey 3) Beni vs R/HRam (1B)v L 4) Betts 5) Devers 6) HRam (1B)v R/Young (LF)v L 7) JBJ vs R/ Bogey v L 8) Bogey v R/ JBJ v L 9) Vaz Bench: Young or Beni Moreland Holt Leon

I live just SW of Houston. Nobody I know here has any confidence in Peacock continuing this streak of good pitching.

The Rays are tied in the race for the last wild card slot. Looks like the AL East is again stronger than others. Don't forget the Mariners either. They recently picked up Alonso and others to strengthen themselves for the playoff run. Even the O's are close behind. NYY 59-51 TBR 58-55 (-2.5 from NYY) KCR 57-54 --- SEA 57-56 -1 BAL 56-56 -1.5 MN 54-56 -2.5 LAA 55-58 -3 TEX 53-58 -4 TOR 52-59 -5 The NL is way different. The Cubs and Brewers are neck and neck for the division, but the loser will likely miss out on the playoffs as the NL West is ahead. COL 64-48 AZ 63-48 (-0.5 from 1st WC slot) MIL 59-55 -5.5 StL 56-56 -7.5 As you can see, we have 5 teams within 5 games of the the last WC team. The NL has zero within 5 games of AZ.

When I throw a baseball high over my head, it rises. When a pitch is released in may rise initially, reach it's apex and then start declining due to gravitational forces. For the purposes of this discussion, the "rising fastball" appears to rise towards the end of its journey to the plate, when actually it is probably just that it does not fall as much as a batter (or observing fan) might expect or is accustomed to seeing. The ball does not and can not rise after the apex.

Yes, $127M/4. We'd free up $31M on the luxury tax budget for the 4 years remaining.

.840 is not all that great for AAA, but he might get a chance. If we reset the tax this year, then the tax on Castillo's contract will likely be less than a good FA 4th OF'er might cost. If you are going by just AAA numbers, then Brentz might be a better (and cheaper) option than Castillo. The big problem with adding Castillo to the 40 man roster is that his $11M contract will count vs the luxury tax until it runs out, even if we try to remove him from the 40 man roster at a later date (assuming he does not do very well). That could end up being a hefty tax by his last year on his contract. My guess is he remains in purgatory for the remainder of his deal.

Soxprospoects.com has this for their "Future" roster: 2020 Price ERod Groome Wright Houck 2021 Price ERod Groome Houck Scherff/Mata

There are clutch hits, but nobody has ever proven or convinced me there is such a thing as a "clutch hitter". It's just not a sustainable skill. It's actually not even a skill. You'll have a very long wait to ever hear me say, so and so "is a clutch hitter."