moonslav59

Not really.

Yes! Then, not only could we trade away the farm, we could trade away our future farm!

MLBTR... Red Sox number four overall prospect Sam Travis received his first small taste of major league action this year. But he didn’t fare as expected in the power department, slugging just .342 in the majors and .375 at the Triple-A level. Alex Speier of Baseball America (subscription required and recommended) writes that he spent a lot of last offseason rehabbing from knee surgery, which may have contributed to his struggles. Still, Travis has been seen in recent years as player with a big-league ready bat who needed to improve his defense at first base, and the former second-rounder’s offensive performance didn’t match the billing in 2017. His vastly improved defense, however, has led the organization to give him a shot in left field in the Dominican League, which could improve his prospect stock headed into next season.

Interesting that you assume you know my thoughts. I may be losing my memory in my old age, but I did remember the hit. I remember that I thought the right fielder should have caught the ball and then I think he misplayed the bounce off the wall or something.

Like I tell some of my struggling ESL students, "try chunking your reading."

I'm not worried either. I've been through decades of ineptitude and heart-breaking close calls. I'm happy we have a contending team for 2-3 more years, and I don't think the cliff will be long lasting. I'll take a ring and a couple non contending years to follow.

The statement was made within the context of either this or Henry turning the Sox into the Dodgers East. How much will it cost to sign 3 aces or solid #2's? That's a third of the luxury budget right there- on just 3 guys. It's not just the 3 starting pitchers either. Look at the outlook on our everyday players: Beni, Devers then who? Chavis and Travis? Lin and Chatham? Ockimey? Flores might turn out to be very good, but even he won't be ready by 2020 or 2021. To me, it is so obvious we have very few high quality players and prospects under team control through '20-'21. Are we counting on our drafts in 2018 and 2019 to produce ML ready stars by 2020-2021? Are we counting on 8-10 players on the farm now to rise up quickly into stars or near stars by then? Ever time we traded guys like Espinoza, Margot, (Moncada and Kopech- I wanted to trade for Sale), Basabe, Dubon and others, I kept hearing from the same cliff- deniers that these guys were only speculative value and that maybe one or two might have amounted to anything anyways. Now, some of the same posters are putting all their trust in lesser prospects to somehow miraculously thrive and grow into quality players at a higher rate of success in just 2-3 years time. It's like climate deniers saying, "We'll find a way to fix the problem, when it gets very drastic." The old ways of buying the best international free agents are gone. The old ways of drafting better players late in the first round due to "signing issues" are gone. The only way we win in 2020-2021 is to spend in ways we've never seen and/or develop non top 100 prospects, including a SP'er or two, into stars like we've never seen before in such quantities on this team. I hope to God I'm wrong, but I think I'm being a realist. Players under team control through the 2020 season: Boston Price (assuming no opt out) Pedey Beni Devers Maddox Hembree Scott Hernandez Johnson Marrero Taylor Last arb years: Betts JBJ Vazquez Wright Smith Leon Swihart Astros: Correa Bregman McCullers Reddick Gurriel Musgrove Last arb: Springer Giles Peacock Marisnick Devinski LAD Kershaw Bellinger Seager Turner Jansen Maeda Stripling A Barnes Urias T Thompson plus others and a much better farm Last arb Pederson C Taylor Y Garcia P Baez I don't want to get depressed, but here are the Yanks... Judge Severino Sanchez Chapman Bird Montgomery Torreyes Frazier Green Ellsbury Castro (opt) A Taylor and many more plus a much better farm with near ML ready prospects Last arb Kahnle Shreve

Is Wendell Kim available for 3B coach duries? LOL!

not mentioning it is does not mean I forgot it. One could make the point that we got so close to elimination in part because of Papi being 1 for 21 apart from that big hit. It reminds me of the argument used by John Elway fans. "Look at all the comebacks!" I reply, "Why behind so often?" Look, I'm not taking anything away from Papi. The guy was amazing! Nobody has ever come through when it counted more than he did. Ever. Not even close. Even the series with the Tigers in '13. He sucked all series and then hit the grand slam that changed everything. The guy is a living legend. (BTW, I love seeing him as a commentator. He's funny and insightful.)

1) I'm not so sure Stanton will cost that much, if the team takes on his whole salary. 2) We shot for a 3 year window, and one is already gone. Waiting one more year for Machado pretty much pisses one more away.

I agree! Plus we need to put groome, mata and schreff on the untouchable list. Basically, obliterating the cliff depends on these three just about all becoming aces or strong #2 types. Pardon me, if I am not that optimistic. I like all three, but I've seen too many promising Sox pitching prospects fall short of expectations.

Kimbrel and Pom were not "tremendous" in 2016. They have been great for one year out of three years of control with one more to go. I was not for emptying the farm. I would not have chosen this path. I've been clear on that. Trades for guys like Sale and Quintana are much different. Both were under team control for 3-5 years when I was advocating those trades AND (and this is equally important) their salaries were dirt cheap for players of their caliber. That allows us to spend elsewhere. Kimbrel was making top dollar for a closer when we traded 4 prospects for him. The closer cost sky-rocketed afterwards, and I have stated that this has improved the judgement of the trade in a big way. When we traded for Kimbrel, I said I felt he was and would continue to be a top 3 closer for the 3 years of control. I never downplayed his value in that way. I do, however, feel closers are over-valued, but that's a different debate. My views on trading Sox prospects have changed once our GM decided to shoot for a window/cliff philosophy. I am temporarily fine with trading more prospects to insure we do win a ring within the window and accept that a cliff will be a result. I don't see a 5 year cliff with a team like ours. We may be closer to last place than 1st for 1-2 years and then could bounce back. We made the bed. It's time to sleep in it and win a ring or two before the bed rolls off the cliff.

We are not Tampa North either. The team has a very large payroll and will maintain one. We were one of the top salary teams those 3 years we finished last. Certainly spending big does not guarantee no "cliff." The team is actually using its farm the way large market teams do use them - keep your stars and use other stuff to supplement. They got pretty good quality in all of their trades so far, and the guys they identified as keepers seem at worst highly defensible. There's not enough the young, low cost player available for 2020 or 2021. Look how many Dodger and Astros players are homegrown. Look at the list I provided of homegrown players available to the Sox in 2021. Light years apart. No team has a farm system which produces star prospects forever. Kids graduate, and then there is some gaps in AA/AAA for a bit. Question now is whether Dombrowski can fill those gaps in. Obviously the evidence is inconclusive. Remember, at the time of the cliff, none of the Red Sox most important position players will be 30. The "cliff" as it were is entirely within the Red Sox control. Yes, exactly, that's why there are no more dynasties. Teams shoot for windows and rebuilding phases, unless they can spend like the Dodgers, who try to keep the farm intact while spending like maniacs. There may not be a cliff, if Henry spends like a maniac in 2020 (or earlier). If he doesn't, there is only a slim chance we can be highly competitive, and that involves being very productive, or lucky, with almost all of our draft picks and international signings. What's our 2020 budget going to be, if we keep Sale, Betts, Kimbrel, Pom and maybe Bogey and JBJ? What will the arb costs be to the ones not up for free agency? It's not as easy as it looks. Yes, dropping HRam, Pablo and Porcello's contracts will help, but there is no doubt we are going to have to spend like never before to fill all the obvious holes left be depleting much of our farm for this window. Until I actually see Henry do it, I'm seeing a cliff coming.

I'm not misremembering it. Was he not 2 for 21? Yes, he had a hit that led to a run.

We didn't even sign Papi to a 5 year deadl!

Chicago is nearing agreement on a deal to bring Jim Hickey aboard as the new pitching coach, Patrick Mooney of NBC Sports Chicago tweets. Hickey long served as the Rays’ pitching coach, including a long run with Maddon. He had reportedly drawn interest from quite a few other organizations as well.

Not quite dead yet!

134 Starting Pitchers 180 IP+ since 2016 ERA- 9. Sale 72 15. Pomeranz 77 18. Arrieta 22. L Lynn 81 28. Darvish 83 36. Porcello 87 44. Price 90 45. Wright 90 80. ERod 100 (We have 5 in the top 45: ERod is not one of them.)

193 players with 1500 PAs since 2014 ISO 1. Stanton .301 2. Ortiz .280 4. JD Martinez .274 9. Donaldson .254 13. Duda .242 18. Upton .228 25. Dozier .222 27. Bruce .220 46. Moustakas .201 50. Santana .199 53 Morrison .196 54. Betts .196 61. HRam .189 64. Moreland .187 94. JBJ .170 115. Hosmer .160

Still, don't count him out!

900+ PAs 2016 to 2017 SLG% 1. JD Martinez .610 6. Stanton .573 9. Donaldson .553 18. Dozier .521 22. Abreu .510 24. Bruce .507 26. Ozuna .503 28. Upton .502 29. Betts .498 33. Castellanos .493 39. Cozart .484 48. Santana .477 52. Morrison .474 59. HRam .469 65. Hosmer .465 91. JBJ .447 92. Nunez .445 103. Moreland .433 107. Alonso .432 111. Pedroia .436 112. Bogey .426 (155 qualified)

Selected top wRC+ players from 2016-2017: 162 Votto 153 JD Martinez 153 Donaldson 140 Stanton 128 Dozier 125 Ozuna 125 Fowler 124 Conforti 124 Santana 123 Braun 122 Betts 121 Upton 119 Hosmer 118 Morrison 116 Cozart 114 Bruce 114 Pedroia 113 McCutchen 113 Moustakas 112 HRam 110 Granderson 109 Alonso 108 Duda 106 Nunez 106 Bogey 106 Beni 105 T Shaw 106 JBJ

Although the Cards are paying $4-6M a year on Leake's contract, the Mariner's still will owe about what Castillo makes. Of course, Leake has had some good WAR years recently, but it is a pretty big contract worth mentioning.

Luxury Tax... A club exceeding the Competitive Balance Tax threshold for the first time must pay a 20 percent tax on all overages. A club exceeding the threshold for a second consecutive season will see that figure rise to 30 percent, and three or more straight seasons of exceeding the threshold comes with a 50 percent luxury tax. If a club dips below the luxury tax threshold for a season, the penalty level is reset. So, a club that exceeds the threshold for two straight seasons but then drops below that level would be back at 20 percent the next time it exceeds the threshold. Clubs that exceed the threshold by $20 million to $40 million are also subject to a 12 percent surtax. Meanwhile, those who exceed it by more than $40 million are taxed at a 42.5 percent rate the first time and a 45 percent rate if they exceed it by more than $40 million again the following year(s). Beginning in 2018, clubs that are $40 million or more above the threshold shall have their highest selection in the next Rule 4 Draft moved back 10 places unless the pick falls in the top six. In that case, the team will have its second-highest selection moved back 10 places instead. I had originally thought going over by $20M was the trigger to a lower draft pick, but it's actually $40M. Maybe Castillo does have a chance at making the 25 man roster. Also, a 20% tax on about $12M is not much, but once we add him back to the 40 man roster, we can't get rid of it. So, if we go over again next year, it's 30%. In 2020, it could be 50%. The total added cost could possibly be ... $2.4M (20% of $12M) + $3.6M (30% of $12M) + $6.0M (50% of $12M) $12M/3 years That's not a bad "added cost", assuming he does well. It's what we paid Young for 2 years.

The Pablo deal is worse. We are paying $19M, and it counts against the luxury tax. I'm not aware of any team paying a minor league player more than $11.7M.