moonslav59

Great points. I do think Bogey walks, and like EMP suggests maybe trading a good player, like we did with Nomar, will need to be done. It's hard to pull the trigger on a trade like that when you are trying to compete. Of all our younger stars and good players, it does seem Bogey is at the top of the that list. His stock is not as high as before, however, so getting back top talent might be lessened if we do it this winter. I get the feeling we'll keep all our top young ML players at least until just before their last year.

Haven't you heard? Only people who have played the game truly know what it's about.

So, if we continue to draft the way you think we have, we should be great in 3-4 years, right? Many of those picks have been traded for key pieces over the years. For example, Kopech- a comp pick- helped us get Sale. What's interesting is that Kopech was a comp pick for losing Ellsbury who was a comp pick for losing OCab. This comp pick system was a gift that often kept on giving and giving. To think trading Nomar away had something to do with us still having Sale for 2 more years tells a big story.

I'd probably rather have our schedule, even with the 4 games vs HOU to end the season and 3 at BAL. The Yanks play,,, 3 vs MN 1 vs KCR 6 vs TOR (3H 3A) 3 vs TBR 1 vs BAL We have 3 at Cincy which is probably easier than 3 vs TOR at home. We end with 3 vs TOR and 4 vs HOU at home: Ours: 4 vs HOU 3 vs TOR 3 @ CIN 3 @ BAL 1 @ TBR

I'll never say that. I'm usually a believer in the saying that "Leopards don't change their spots," but I hope JF gives me reason to rethink that philosophy. I'm not afraid to say that I have seen fewer blunders over the last few weeks and a willingness to change line-up to appease our better hitters. It doesn't mean I'm walking back on my beliefs. It just means things change in baseball, sometimes on a dime. I still think JF is an idiot when it comes to anything other than pitching. The recent ample size is small, and batting Vaz second today, could have been random luck. I do not think JF will be fired this winter, even if we get swept again, so we'll have a large enough sample size to see if JF can change his spots. I hope he does, because that will mean we have a better chance of winning.

We'll have less picks than we had before. We'll have lower picks than we had before. It's also supposed to be much harder for rich teams to hoard international FAs. Those three facts do not mean we can or won't produce some major league players or "chips", but it is going to be much more difficult than before. Plus, it's not like we did really great with our drafts, if you took away all out comp picks and picks of players who fell down to us due to their unsignability factor. The fear is that increasingly more difficult rules are going to make it much much harder to keep stockpiling prospects. The lining up of most of our better players' final contract years at a time when our farm may not "be there" to fill in the gaps seems to point to a "cliff" or at least a brief but significant downturn. Nobody pretends to know for sure, but surely you can see that a case can be made that things will get worse when we start losing one or two of our big guys due to free agency. Want some "math?" Here's a look at just one area that has chanced: loss of comp picks for losing type A and B free agents. There are still some comp picks, but they are much rarer and can only be obtained by making qualified offers. (We probably won't have any of those in time to draft a player that can help in 2020 or 2021. Since 2005, here's our best non comp pick draft picks and comp picks (in red): 2005: 1 Ellsbury 1 Hansen 1 Buccholz 1 Lowrie 1 Bowden 2 Egen 4 Blue 2006: 1 Place 1 Bard 1 Johnson 1 Clay 2 Masterson 3 Bates 3 Cox 4 Still 2007: 1 Hagadone 1 Dent 2 Morris 3 Huntzinger 4 Providence 2008: 1 Kelly 1 Price 2 Gibson 3 Fife 3 Weiland 4 Hissey 2009 1 Fuentes 2 Wilson 3 Renfroe 4 Hazelbaker 2010 1 Vitek 1 Brentz 1 Ranaudo 2 Workman 3 Coyle 4 Cecchini 2011: 1 Barnes 1 Swihart 1 Owens 1 Bradley 2 Jerez 3 Weems 4 N Ramirez 5 Betts 2012: 1 Marrero 1 Johnson 1 Light 2 Callahan 3 maddox 4 Buttrey 2013: 1 T Ball 2 Stanki 3 Denney 4 M Smith 2014: 1 Chavis 1 Kopech 2 Travis 3 Cosart 4 McAvoy 2015: 1 Beni 3 Rei 4 Matheny 2016: 1 Groome 2 Chatham 3 Anderson 4 Dalbec 2017: 1 Houck 2 Brannen 3 Netzer 4 Thompson 5 Scherff Do the math: look at the red vs the black. Look at the drafts where we had no comp picks. Yes, we've had a few good picks beyond our comp picks. We even drafted Betts in the 5th round. Nothing is impossible, but it surely has gotten a heck of a lot harder to have drafts like 2005 and 2011. Our MO used to be to let big FAs walk, stockpile the comp picks and then go out and sign new FAs, some not type As or Bs or qualifying offer FAs to fill the gaps. We can't play that game at that level anymore. I'm not an expert on draft slot money allocations, but someone else could give you "math" on how drafting great players with the 26th pick, because they wanted big money and slipped down past poorer teams isn't going to happen very often with the new rules. It's a big change in the draft for richer teams. The international bonuses have been restricted as well. Sorry, I don't have the "numbers", but they have changed for the worse as well. Now, to your question, how many draft picks will we have in the next 3-4 years? Pretty much the same as everyone else, but with lower picks and with less picks per year than we've averaged since 2005 due to the loss of sometimes multiple comp picks. So, we had something like 40 picks last year, so my guess is we'll have about 120 picks in the next 3 years.

Great game! If Porcello could somehow keep this up... I loved seeing Vaz up second. JF is starting to show what I've been hoping to see for years. (I may have to begin reviewing my position to can his ass... I said "may"...) Betts with 2 hits. In his last 10 games, he's had 3 hits 3 times and 2 hits once. If he can heat up at just the right time... Seems this team is coming together at just about the right time.

I was responding to the claim that JF may end up winning a WS in 40% of his years and nobody fires someone for that. The 40% last place point was a counterpoint. Many are fired for that and have had a lot less resources to work with than JF. We've been a top 3 spending team in all of JF's years here. In general, I am okay with some last place finishes as long as we win rings, but I also said I have become spoiled. I also never meant to imply we just stand pat during those bad years and not try to improve the team, sometime by changing a manager. I actually said that back before our first ring, I used to say I'd give up 10 last place finishes for 1 ring, but once we won once, I got spoiled. I'm not a person who always blames the manager- really, I'm not. Here are some examples: 1) I defended Grady Little on the "Pedro choice". 2) I was probably the last guy wanting Bobby V to get canned. 3) I loved Tito. I had some beefs with his over-loyalty thing, but never came close wanting him fired until the great implosion and my belief that he lost control. I realize he had great distractions going on in his life, and I wish we still had him over JF. 4) I've always thought JF was a very good pitching coach, and I was not against trying him as a manager. I gave him plenty of time on his learning curve, but I have seen little improvement in any areas beyond pitching.

I'm a believer in some sort of cliff existing. Unlike Kimmi, I think it might be 4 years away-not 3. I have not been against "every" DD move, and I don't know anyone who has been. I hated the Kimbrel & Pom trades but loved the Sale trade. I liked the Thornburg and Nunez deals and was okay with the Price signing. I don't mean to speak for Kimmi, she does fine on her own, but her main criticism has been the vast totality of DD's deals and not all of them. The Kimbrel and Pom deals have worked out well this year. Last year some were wondering. Nobody doubted those deals weren't going to help us for 3 years or so. Even if we don't hit a cliff, a term that is probably more subjective than the term "mental blunder", not having all those prospects will surely affect how good we will be, unless every one flops.

Well said, cp. I'm still very optimistic about this team despite watching Houston, LA and Cleveland totally dominate through stretches of this year. We've had some ups and downs, but I think we've kept my dream alive this season.

Nobody would project a cliff as long as Manny was under team control for much while longer, and there was no reason to believe we could not keep Papi indefinitely. There was no luxury tax and the draft, Int'l FA system and FA comp pick system actually helped us not hurt us.

1) Nobody is claiming "the cliff" is going to be 3 or more years long. 2) We finished in 3rd place in 2006. Cliff? Probably not, but I don't recall any Sox fans expecting one. Henry was spending like a maniac, and not every player was coming up for free agency at once. 3) We saw our payroll go from $120M in 2006 to $143M in 2007. We signed Lugo and Okajima. We had signed Dice-K and others and traded top prospects for Beckett & Lowell a year before and created a kind of "window" from 2005-2007. We never hit a "cliff" until maybe the Valantine year, but we also did not win a WS between 2007 and 2013. certainly, we were more competitive than 2012, 2014 and 2015, which could have been called a cliff were it not for 2013.

Who has the list of all bonehead plays. Then, some here dispute just about every play we label "bonehead" by claiming it's just "aggressiveness". Then, looking at these numbers cannot take into account games with 2, 3 or more bonehead plays in the same game. It is a start though. I can't believe some feel the play where Holt held onto the ball was not a blunder, but I'm done arguing that. B-R had our winning that games chances go from 68% to 22% after that play (if I'm reading the numbers correctly). https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CLE/CLE201708210.shtml

Name a manager on any past top 5 spending team that has kept his job after finishing in last place in 40% of his seasons. My guess is zero in modern day history. Francona never finished last in his 8 years here. He was canned after finishing in 3rd place 2 straight years. TF's teams finished in 3rd 3 times in 8 years (38%), however, look at our records those 3 years: 90-72 2011 89-72 2010 86-76 2006 Call me crazy, fine, but if we win this year, in my opinion, it will be despite having JF as our manager and not because he was our manager. I'll give him all the credit in the world for getting the most out of our pitching, but nothing more. Hopefully, that will be enough.

We've had 39 comeback wins and 10 walk-off wins. We've blown 24 leads and have lost 4 times on walk-offs. Our mean runs scored is 4. If we score 5+ runs in our next 3 games, our mean runs scored would be 5. Our mean runs allowed is also 4. If we allow 3 runs or less in our next 4 games, it would be 3. In other words, we are very close to having means of 5 to 3. How does this compare to Cleveland, Houston and NYY? CLE: Mean runs scored: also 4 (also 3 games from being 5) Mean runs allowed: 3 (10 gms from 4 & 14 from 2) HOU: Mean runs scored: 5 (8 gms from 4) Mean runs allowed: 4 (9 gms from 3 & 9 gms from 5) NYY: Mean runs scored: 5 (4 games from being 4) Mean runs allowed: 4 (9 games from 5 & 12 from 3) Not much of a difference. Pythagorean Standings (differential from actual): 97-51 CLE (-6) 90-57 NYY (-9) 87-60 HOU (+2) 85-62 BOS (+1) 74-73 MN (+3) This seems to indicate we're winning more than we "deserve" and the Guardians and Yankees are actually even better than what their record indicates.

All teams have injuries. I am thrilled with what JF has gotten out of our pitching staff, particularly the pen. At the start of the year, I felt our pen, not 3B, was our weakest (not weak) link, and that was before Thornburg and Ross went down and we still had hopes on Smith returning in June or July. Our everyday players have been pretty healthy, in terms of not missing many games, but several players have dealt with injury issues for much of the year. With the everyday players, I just can't get past the decline or steep decline from just about every Sox player, except Vaz. I get the excuses for some of them, but even with valid excuses, it is still very rare to see over 90% of returning players decline, especially on a team with no player over 32-33 to start the season. I projected 100 wins with normal injuries. I'm not sure I'd say we've had more or less than "normal", so I see us as slightly under performing overall. It's a close call, and I can see areas we've done better than expected (despite injuries and health issues).

I'm not going to argue about Sox blunders anymore. I've said all I can say and more. I will say, in general, I feel one blunder can turn a game won or lost by 5 or more runs. It's not likely, but it could. Unless someone logged every mental blunder, which apparently are more subjective than I first believed, doing an full game analysis of all close games is not really possible.

moonslav the adroit one. a silk purse, just like that, right before our eyes. Watching and studying and writing about the Sox has you slightly unbalanced because you have said publicly Farrell can stay (for one more year) if the Sox win the AL East and at least one round in the postseason. That's right, isn't it? No, I said he likely will stay- not that I'd want him to stay. I wouldn't bring him back even if we win the WS. (I realize I'm probably a minority of one on that one.) Last night was certainly gritty. Sale disappointed (I refuse to write him off, however), but still went 6 giving up 4. The bullpen, whom I periodically rage against (and did last night) went 9 giving up 2--terrific. And the hitting, which disappointed us all in innings 1 thru 8 and 10 thru 13 (and maybe 14), was like we wanted them in innings 9 and 15. We need to give Sale extra rest over the next 2 weeks, perhaps even if we risk winning the division. As I wrote earlier, the low-down, misbegotten, trying to throw it all away Sox are actually 7-3 in the last 10 games. The Yankees, who are definitely surging--peaking, if you will, at just the right time--are also 7-3 in their last 10 games. Instead of playing the Rays in Tampa as scheduled, they got to play them in NYC (or close to it). So, even though the Sox aren't getting a lot of style points, it's hard for me to see why all the gloom and doom (I'm guilty too). I'm still very optimistic... like I've been since day 1 and before.

Unless we really need a win to avoid the wild card game, I'd really try to give Sale some extra rest. Here's the rest of the schedule: (All our starters just got one extra day of rest before their last start- some got 2 days. @TBR Porcello @TBR ERod @BAL Fister @BAL Pom @BAL (Velazquez-Price tandem start?) ---off---- @CIN Sale +2 @CIN Porc +2 @CIN ERod +2 TOR Fister +2 TOR Pom +2 TOR (Velazquez/Price) HOU Sale+1 HOU Porc +1 HOU ERod+1 HOU Fister +1 ----off---- ----off---- ----off---- Gm1 Sale +2 Gm2 Pom +4 ----off---- Gm3 Fister+1 Gm4 ERod +4 Gm 5 Sale (reg rest)

Great point- even against the best closers.

With our two top OPSs guys going 0 for 9 (Pedey) and 2 for 8 (Beni) and our bottom guy (Bogey) going 4 for 7 with a BB, we have an almost unbelievable tight variance between our 1 and 8 batters by PAs: .798 Beni .788 Betts .788 Pedey .772 Moreland .762 JBJ .761 Vaz .743 HRam .736 Bogey Our top 8 hitters by PAs are all within 62 points from each other! Others .885 Nunez .841 Devers .792 Travis .710 Lin .635 Leon .634 Davis .604 Marrero .480 Holt

Bogey and Betts showing life. (Like, who wasn't?) All 4 killer Bees with 2 or more hits.

What a game! We must have left 99 runners on base tonight. Ran into outs. Calls overturned and confirmed against us. Hits stolen by Kiemeier. Just about everything seemed to go wrong, but we've scrapped our way beyond the setbacks.

We're saving our "peak" for just the right time.

Does he need surgery...like in the off season?