moonslav59

We ended up spending $20M for 3 years of Moreland. We could have had EE for $40M more. We might have been able to get LoMo for 2 years this winter at maybe $10-15M more than the $13M we paid Moreland for 2 years. Maybe another head-scratcher.

Let's assume we sign JD and keep Sale, Pom, Bogaerts & Kelly. We lose HRam, Pablo, Porcello, Kimbrel, Moreland, Thornburg and Holt. This would be the framework of our 2020 roster with a few blanks to be filled by cheap free agent options: SP1: Sale ~$32M SP2: Price $31M SP3: ERod ~$13M (arb 3 of 4) SP4: Wright ~$8+M (arb 3 of 3) SP5: __________ FA (or Groome/Mata/Houck/Johnson/Velazquez/Elias/Beeks/Shawaryn) RP1: Smith ~$8M+ (arb 3 of 3) RP2: __________ FA RP3: Kelly ~$6M RP4: Barnes ~$3M (arb 2 of 3) RP5: Hembree ~$2M (arb 2 of 3) RP6: Scott ~$1M (arb 1 of 3) RP7: Workman ~$1.5M (arb 3 of 3) (or Maddox, Taylor, Buttrey, Shepherd, Jerez (bubble), J Cosart, T Lakins or a converted starter) C: Vazquez ~$6M (arb 3 of 3) C: Leon (Bubble) ~$2.5M (arb 4 of 4) C Swihart (Bubble) ~$1M (arb 2 of 3) 1B: ________ FA 1B: Travis ~$600K 1B: Ockimey AAA 2B: Pedey $14M 2B: Hernandez ~$800K (arb 1 of 3) SS: Bogaerts ~$18M SS: Chatham AAA SS: Marrero (bubble) 3B: Devers ~$600K 3B: Lin ~$600K 3B: Dalbec AAA LF: Benintendi ~$3M (arb 1 of 3) LF: Brentz (Bubble) ~$800K CF: Bradley $16M (arb 4 of 4) RF: Betts ~$22M (arb 3 of 3) DH: Martinez ~$25M DH: Chavis ~$600K Min Roster AVV ~$225M (45 players named- only 40 can be on the roster.) Not on 40 man roster: Thompson, Brannen, Scherff

Mata is 18 and Groome is 19. soxprospects.com has Mata starting the season in high-A ball (Salem) and Groome starting the season in low-A (Greenville). I guess it's possible one or both end the season in Portland, but I'm not sure if that should be the measure used to judge their 2018 success. Both have high ceilings. soxprospects.com gives Groome a 3-7 scale and Mata a 3-6 scale. BTW, Tanner Houck, 21, starts the year in Greenville, according to soxprospects.com. His scale is also listed at 3-6.

Maybe, a "few starts" means 15.

Well said. Betts is special. I love watching him play. Superlative defense. Heads-up base running. On base machine. Hopefully, the power returns. I think it will.

From MLBTR Speaking of young players returning from injury, Red Sox left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez could potentially miss a few starts at the beginning of the season after undergoing right knee patellofemoral ligament reconstruction surgery, Ian Browne of MLB.com writes. “[The injury] happened, like, three times already,” Rodriguez pointed out. “I was just trying to fight to pitch with a knee like that. And I did it. Sometimes there would be ups and downs. Now it’s time to get back to the guy I was before I got the surgery.” The 24-year-old southpaw’s had his share of ups and downs across parts of three seasons with the Red Sox. Last season, he put up 137 1/3 innings for the club while striking out 9.83 batters per nine and posting a 4.19 ERA overall.

A look at who our cheap and mid range players might be in future year rosters. Now Under $2M: Beni, Devers, Vazquez, C Smith (Thornburg $2.05M) Barnes, Wright, Hembree, Leon, Hernandez, Workman, Scott, Maddox Velazquez, Johnson, Swihart), Travis, Lin, Taylor, Marrero Elias, Beeks, Brentz, Buttrey, Shepherd, Jerez $2M to $6M ERod, Kelly, Holt 6M to $10M Pomeranz, Bradley, Bogaerts, Moreland $10M to $14M Betts, Sale, Kimbrel 2019 (FA: Pom, Kimbrel, Kelly and maybe HRam) Rule 5 promotion to 40 man Roster? Chavis , D Hernandez , J Ockimey, J Cosart, T Lakins Non Rule 5 Top Prospects possible promoted? Shawaryn, Dalbec, Chatham, Thompson Under $2M: Beni, Devers, C Smith(arb 2) Barnes (arb 1), Hembree (arb1), Leon (arb3), Hernandez, Workman (arb2), Scott, Maddox Velazquez, Johnson, Swihart (arb1), Travis, Lin, Taylor, Marrero Elias (arb1), Beeks, Brentz, Buttrey, Shepherd, Jerez $2M to $6M ERod (arb2), Vaz (Arb2), Thornburg, Wright (arb2), Holt 6M to $10M Moreland $10M to $14M Betts, Sale, Bogaerts, Bradley 2020 (FAs: Sale, Bogaerts, Porcello, Moreland, Thornburg, Holt, (Pablo & HRam) Rule 5 promotion to 40 man Roster? CJ Chatham, Dalbec, Shawaryn Non Rule 5 Top Prospects possible promoted? Groome, Houck, Thompson, Brannen, Scherff Under $2M: Devers, Chavis, D Hernandez, J Ockimey, J Cosart, T Lakins Hernandez, Workman (arb2), Scott, Maddox Velazquez, Johnson, Swihart (arb2), Travis, Lin, Taylor, Marrero Elias (arb2), Beeks, Brentz, Buttrey, Shepherd, Jerez $2M to $6M Beni (arb1), Wright (arb3), Barnes (arb 2), Hembree (arb2), Leon (arb4), 6M to $10M ERod (arb3), Vaz (Arb3), C Smith(arb 3), $10M to $14M ??? (Erod?) Over $14M Betts (arb3), Bradley (arb4), Pedey & Price

Probably. Maybe DD really wanted Moncada over Devers, but the CWS insisted on Moncada. Or not.

I'm always leaning towards the "or nots".

It's hard to imagine us being totally out of contention for 3 years, if we are right below the luxury tax from 2020 to 2022. It's easy to imagine us not being a top contender from 2021 to 2022 or 2023, but I doubt we finish 4th or 5th for 2 out of 3 seasons, let alone all 3. We will struggle to fill the roster with quality, inexpensive players, but the budget should keep us fairly competitive (make the playoffs 1 out of those 3 years?). I'm hoping we get some surprises from the farm, but I'm not overly optimistic.

Most of the big free agents have serious flaws. Some have had one big year (Moose & LoMo). Some are on and off (Hosmer). Some have never had a 650 PA season (JD). Maybe their demands are just too "pie-in-the-sky", and their is no collusion.

The players might be upset at the fact that they signed what they felt was an owner friendly contract that would keep things somewhat status quo, only to find out big signings are not as easy as before. (Jack, I agree with your position, and the contracts signed so far, are in line with expectations.)

The Sox are clearly prepared to pay large and long. They reset the tax for this purpose. Yes, a JD signing will affect the Sox down the road more than teams not over the limit, but we've been over many years before.

If the player's union pushed hard for a minimum ML salary of $1M or $1.5M and a minimum payroll limit (maybe set 40 man roster min salary at $750K instead of high $500's), it would help more player than trying to up the maximum luxury limit.

We are not resetting the tax this year, so how is that a "disadvantage?" We can afford $25M x 5 or 6 years, so again, how are we at a "disadvantage?" Yes, several other teams can "afford" $25M, but almost all of them have shown no signs of spending that much on one player. The 2 teams that usually will spend that much (NYY & LAD) are resetting their tax this year. I don't see the disadvantage at all, except the DH vs OF issue or ruse.

Yes, lots of maybes, but it's hard for me to think of another team that needs JD, is not resetting their tax, and will pay close to $25M x 5 or 6 years.

Very true, or they could have held longer and been traded for some of these bargain deals made this winter.

Yes, and selling half your tickets at $150 a ticket vs all your tickets at $25 a ticket is just plain good business, especially, kif those not going to the game then pay for NESN to watch it at home.

I keep hearing the same argument. I'm tired of answering the same answer only to have it forgotten until the next time this comes up. I was not against trading prospects. I loved the Sale trade despite the overpay. I think we traded too many top prospects, too quickly. I'm okay with where we are and what we did. I'm glad DD got players with 3 years of control not 1. I'm happy we have a 3-4 year window (that began last year) where we have a good chance at a ring, BUT I realize we sacrificed our chances or winning in the future. I'm not going to just assume we will "rebuild the farm" and be all optimistic like some seem to be. I'm not all gloom and doom either. Our extended future certainly looks less rosy due to the trades. Our window looks much better. As for where does Margot play? We are looking at signing an OF'er/DH to $25M a year. As for Moncada? We're looking to sign a DH to $25M. We are in need of a 2Bman. We could have moved Devers or Moncada to 1B and have the other at 3B. We could use Kopech in 2-3 years. We could use Espi in 3-4 years. I love having Kimbrel, Sale and Pom on the roster. I'm happy with the trades, but I realize what effect the deals are going to have down the road. It's easy to say we "won the trades" before any of the guys we traded even have a chance to make an impact. Time will tell. If we win a ring or get really close a couple times, I won't complain about having a couple down years afterwards. I really won't. But, I'm not in denial (not that you are). I do think we will have 2-3 "down years"- maybe not a cliff, but most likely not really top playoff contenders or ring contenders. I realize staying at the Luxury limit or just below should keep us from last place, but it's hard to win with just free agents and middling in-system players.

The teams that have a top 5 farm system like we had 2-3 years ago. Our farm produced Betts, Bogey, JBJ, Devers plus a bunch of prospects that landed us sale, Kimbrel and Pomeranz all within a 4 year period. While that is rare, and the system was different back then, it's hard to imagine anyone in our system being the next Betts or Devers within 2-3 years.

Yes, I should have said "most" of our top prospects. Chavis does have a shot... much longer than Moncada, Margot and , Kopech, I might add.

So far, yes, although after 2016, one might have thought somewhat differently. The Kimbrel deal looks much better after his great 2017 and the exploding contract costs of top closers on the open market. The Pom trade looks much better after his solid 2017. The Sale trade looks great, too. The jury is still out, until after we see two results: 1) Did we win a World Series? 2) How did Moncada, Kopech, Margot, Espi and others do at a fraction of the financial cost?

Pom did not help us in 2016. Kimbrel was not great in 2016. Sale was not here in 2016. All were a huge part of our winning 2017. Point well taken.

No doubt.

It's not a "trainwreck", but we should not expect a major impact player to join the 25 man roster for 2-3 years. If we do get one, it will likely be only 1. When it gets difficult to replace or re-sign departing and meaningful players, it sure helps to have some cheap, young and significant players to add to the roster. One "problem" with our farm is that our best prospects are at least 2-3 years away. I like our draft picks and international signings, but they are what they are: long shots. They are not as sure a bets as those Ben drafted and signed, when we had a different system and higher draft picks.