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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    Looks about right. I'd go with this... Cy Young: Sandy Leon MVP: Betts Silver Slugger: JD Gold Glove: JBJ (CF), Betts (RF) and maybe Leon at Catcher.
  2. moonslav59
    I could see this: Gm1: Sale 6 IP, Wright 2 IP, Kimbrel 1 IP Gm 2: Price 7 IP, Brasier 1 IP, Kimbrel 1 IP off day Gm3: Porcello 7 IP, Brasier 1 IP, Kimbrel 1 IP Gm 4: ERod 6 IP, Wright 2 IP, Kimbrel 1 IP off day Game 5: Sale 7, Braiser 1, Kimbrel 1 We could get by with just 3 RP'ers, if our starts hold up. If not, we could use Wright for 3-4 IP or use Eovaldi, Johnson or Velazquez in long relief. My hope is, we can get by without using too many set-up men, except maybe Brasier and Barnes, if healthy.
  3. moonslav59
    The other downfall of the play-in game, is that the winning team probably used their best or second best pitcher and can only pitch them once in the next 5 game series, unless you seriously mess with their days off. If the Yanks use Severino or Happ in the play-in game, I like our odds even better.
  4. moonslav59
    Sale might reach 162 IP. (BTW, it's 502 PAs not ABs.)
  5. moonslav59
    I thought the same about Ellsbury, but you guys fell for it. Machado & harper are 10 times better than Ellsbury was at signing time. My guess is you get one. You could sign Machado and trade someone or move Andujar to 1B and trade Bird.
  6. moonslav59
    Morton is better than Keuchel, although he's 4.3 years older. 2017-2018 Morton 29-10 3.37 Keuchel 25-26 3.37 But look here... WHIP Morton 1.18 Keuchel 1.22 SIERA Morton 3.62 Keuchel 3.92 K% Morton 28% Keuchel 19%
  7. moonslav59
    He could go 5-0 0.00 and he ain't opting out.
  8. moonslav59
    The play-in game pretty much cuts the Yankess chances almost in half. I get these numbers. TB is out, IMO. NYY .50 x .47 x .71 = 16.7% (Best match-up- Oak>BOS>HOU BOS .53 x .50= 26.5% (Best NYY>CLE) Worst: NYY: 16.7%- the same since your record vs HOU & CLE are the same. BOS: 14.2%- (.33 vs OAK x .47 vs HOU)
  9. moonslav59
    I'm not sure cost is an issue as much as which 2 (or even 3) the Yanks want the most out of Machado, Harper, Morton, Keuchel, Britton, and Happ.
  10. moonslav59
    I agree. I'd put Price's chances of opting out at less than 1%. I'm not sure about JD. He'll be 2 years older and looking more and more like a DH/4th OF'er type. I also think we can probably afford to give JD a bump is salary to keep him here, if we choose to do so.
  11. moonslav59
    Future contract notes: Sale's 2019 option is $15M not $13.5 due to finishing in the top 5 in Cy Young in the past. Nunez saw his 2019 option go up from $4M to $5M by reaching 400 PAs this year. Moreland probably won't make the $25K he gets for reaching 500 PAs. He has 435 now. Price may opt out after this year. JD may opt out after next year with $2.5M buyout. or after 2020 (no buyout).
  12. moonslav59
    It's a big difference, but we've proven we can still win without HRs. We are at .648 in the second half (35-19) and we were at .698 in the first half. A 5% differential is big, but I still like our 65% winning percent in the second half. For reference, our .648 number in the second half compares to these full season numbers: .590 in 1986 .593 in 2007 .594 in 1975 .599 in 2013 .605 in 2004 .607 in 1978
  13. moonslav59
    Do the math. If you agree you have a 50% chance of beating Oakland, then even if you think you have a 99% chance of winning vs BOS, you're under 50% at ever facing HOU or CLE in the ALCS. 99% x 50% is 49.5%. (That's if you think the Yanks are at 99% with the Sox. At best, you might be 50-50 vs Oak and 50-50 vs BOS. That equals 25% you get to face HOU or CLE.
  14. moonslav59
    * Option Starting Pitchers Carlos Carrasco * Patrick Corbin A.J. Griffin Cole Hamels * Jason Hammel * J.A. Happ Matt Harvey Scott Kazmir Clayton Kershaw * Dallas Keuchel Tom Koehler Jeff Locke Brandon McCarthy Tommy Milone Charlie Morton Drew Pomeranz David Price * Garrett Richards Hyun-Jin Ryu Ervin Santana * James Shields * Drew Smyly Edinson Volquez Adam Wainwright Travis Wood
  15. moonslav59
    Probably, but at least their tax level is reset to the lowest rate. The Yanks lose a ton of money pretty consistently over the next few years. Some players leaving will hurt or cost a lot to keep, but it doesn't seem as bad as the Sox schedule of studs reaching free agency in the next few years. 3 years (through 2021) BOS: Pedey, ERod, Vaz, Barnes, Hembree NYY: Chapman, Torreyes, Bird 4 years (through 2022 or longer) BOS: Price, Beni, Devers, Brasier, Swihart, Hernandez, Johnson, Velazquez... NYY: Severino, Stanton, Judge, Sanchez, Torres, Andujar, Voit, German, Holder, Cessa, Green, Frazier, Loaissiga, Montgomery... Without even looking at the farm differential, and I think the yanks are better there, here's a look at players under team control for 3 or more years:
  16. moonslav59
    Me, too. Sox Fenway: .820 @ NYY: .699 @ OAK: .476 @HOU: .735 Yanks NYY: .823 @BOS: .638 @ OAK: .601 @HOU: .584 @CLE: .756 ERA BOS 3.61 at BOS 6.27 at NYY 3.60 at OAK 4.50 at HOU NYY 3.82 at NYY 7.36 at BOS 4.68 at OAK 1.54 at HOU 5.03 at CLE
  17. moonslav59
    I wish we'd use him for more than 1 inning. He'd be great for us as a 2-4 inning guy. He could help us bridge to Kimbrel with one swoop.
  18. moonslav59
    I'm losing it, slash. I had 2017 up for some reason. Here are the 2018 numbers for HRs: by ABs 1st: 134/3415 (.039) 2nd: 55/1835 (.030) That's 1 more HR about every 110 ABs by PAs 1st: 134/3808 (.035) 2nd: 55/2065 (.027) That's one more HR every 125 PAs. We have been walking more... BBs per PA 1st half 324/3808 (.085) 2nd half: 194/2065 (.094)
  19. moonslav59
    Yes, YOU can look at it this way-- any many other ways, too. You will face Oakland first. You are 3-3 vs them. By your reasoning, you have a 50% chance at getting to the next round, where you face a team you are 7-8 against. It won't matter that you are 5-2 vs CLE and HOU, since you probably won't face them, and you can't face both. Our first opponent will be 7-8 vs us or 4-2 vs us, as it looks at this moment. I'm rooting for the A's, so that shows how much I care about a 6 or 15 game sample size.
  20. moonslav59
    It's kind of like the BA title, if someone has too few PAs, he can still win, if he'd still be in the lead after going oh for the differential between his PAs and the min number needed.
  21. moonslav59
    Better teams have a better chance at winning, but with 10 teams making the playoffs, not team ever has a better than 50% chance of winning it all before the playoffs begin. The regular season doesn't matter in some respects, but it does show us who are the better teams and who have the better chances. of course, teams with worse records can and do win. I like our chances better than the Yanks' chances.
  22. moonslav59
    They'd try to extend the window to 2021. They'd keep Kimbrel and try to get a quality set-up man or two. They'd probably be near or over the max penalty line (again).
  23. moonslav59
    We'll be going with 4 starters, so maybe our starter turned reliever will make a big difference and bridge us to Kimbrel without needing the 6.95 guys, although Kimbrel is at 7.36. 0.00 Eovaldi in 14 IP 0.00 Thornburg in 1 IP 3.72 Johnson in 9.2 IP 4.50 Poyner in 2 IP.
  24. moonslav59
    We are both better than we were last year. In all honesty, do you think the Yanks have a better chance than the Sox in the playoffs?
  25. moonslav59
    HRs 1st half: 92 in 3065 ABs (.030) 2nd half: 76 in 2604 ABs (.291) About 1 HR less per 110 ABs. 92/3445 PAs (.0267) 76/2893 PAs (.0263) One less HR every 250 PAs.
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