moonslav59

With Kimbrel, yes. Without, we lose 2 of the big 3 for sure: Sale, Bogey or Porcello. Remember, we lose Pablo's $19M, Pearce/Moreland's $13M, and Nunez/Holt/Thornburg's $10M+.

Just wish away Tanaka's injury? Severino's issues? Neglect the 4-5 starters, where we blow yours away? Talk about rosey glasses!

Show me how you rank the non pen players.

When did I ever come close to saying the Yanks won't be better than 2018 by adding Machado?

When has the pen become more important than the rotation? Here's how I rank the rivals' starters: 1. Sale 2. Price 3. Severino 4. Paxton 5. Porcello 6. Tanaka 7. Eovaldi 8. ERod 9. Happ 10. Sabathia Best Hitters 1. Betts 2. JD (Machado) 3. Judge 4. Stanton 5. Bogey 6. Beni 7. Hicks 8. Devers 9. Sanchez 10. Andujar 11. Pearce/Moreland 12. Didi (half year) 13. Torres 14. JBJ 15. Pedey/Nunez/Holt 16. Gardner 17. Voit/Byrd 18. Vaz/Leon Defense: Advantage Sox Base running: Advantage S0x

It will be close.

We didn't have Eovaldi, Brasier and Pearce all year- now we do. Shouldn't that offset some of the loss? Most of our key players are on the upswing in terms of age curve production and prime years. (Less post prime in key roles than your Yanks.) We heard how sucky our pen was all last year, and we won anyways. We won, despite CK's horrible playoff numbers. Injuries could play a big role, but we basically won without Sale (our best starter) who was MIA the whole second half of 2018. Wright, Pedey & Thornburg missed about the whole year. Many other players missed time or played hurt a lot (Devers, Betts, Bogey, Nunez, Vaz, and ERod). I think we'll be faves, even after you guys add Machado.

So, if Byrd ends up as the starting 1Bman, you'll be all set? Your pen is better than ours, and that's all you want to talk about-- like it means everything.

If we truly want to reset after 2019 or less likely after 2020, signing CK really hurts the rebuilding process, unless his deal is structured to make him tradeable after 2019, as in bid salary in 2019, then drops off quickly..

You won't win the division with Tulo at SS, 2 thirty-five plus year old starters, a catcher who could care less about catching and Voit at 1B.

He pitched 6 or more innings in 7 of 10 starts with the Rays. When he joined the Sox, DD and Cora apparently planned on using Eovaldi as a RP'er i& SP'er n the playoffs. The yanked him early in a few games he wasn't doing badly in. He never let up more than 6 runs in any Sox start, and he only allowed 4-5 runs scored in 3 of his 11 starts. I think he will be fine giving us 6 IP more times than not, unless we choose to use him in relief again. That could happen, if Wright, Johnson of Velazquez prove they can do well as a starter.

Getting CK would put the Yanks in a better position for 2020, 2021, 2022 and maybe 2023, if CK signs for 5 years. I'll take Allen and Brach or both. Maybe one and trade for another. It's not as good as getting CK or Ottavino, but it's still good enough to keep us the faves, while helping our longer term outlook enormously.

As it looks now, yes, Velazquez will likely start in AAA due to option issues with others in our pen, but my guess is he gets more IP this year than last.

It also helps to have 5 solid starters that rarely need bailing out early in games. ERod is the one starter who rates to tax the pen. Johnson, Wright and Velazquez could offer 2 inning stints often enough to lessen the strain on the 7th, 8th and 9th inning guys.

You are assuming the Sox are offering large and long. Have we even made an offer? I see it like this: if nobody offers more than the minimum the Sox are willing to offer CK, then he probably signs with us. He may even agree to a 1 year mega deal to try and reset his value, but that would be highly risky.

Nobody is claiming the Sox pen is great or even very good. While Barnes did have some career numbers in 2019, he was pretty good before that. You seem to expect Barnes will come back to his norm, does that mean Hembree will, too? Last year saw his worst ERA, BB/9 and HR/9 in 3 years. Brasier is largely an unknown, but his velocity does not lie, and you seem to value velocity very highly when talking about Yankee pitchers. Thornburg, Velazquez, Workman, Poyner, Johnson, Wright, Lakins and maybe others all offer long shot hope, but with so many of them,expecting 1 or 2 to do better than expected is not illogical. DD is not done with the pen. He will add someone better than Workman & Velazquez. Besides, the pen is not the be all end all, despite recent trends by teams to build the strongest pens possible. The pendulum may be swinging back as RP salaries sky-rocket. We have a solid rotation. We have a solid, if not the best, offense. We have a solid defense. We run the bases very well. Our pen is not great, at this moment, but it still is not near the worst, is probably above average and has upside potential. We don't need to the best at everything, and we seem to do very well vs the best closers in MLB. Brasier, Barnes and Hembree had an ERA of under 1.00 in the post season last year. 22 IP 2 ER 10 H I know the sample size is small, but there is reason to be hopeful, especially after we add a piece or two.

Not if the Sox are not offering big money. If CK is better than Britton, one would think the Angels might offer a little more than their Britton offer, and if the Sox refuse to go higher, they may get him.

Apparently, the Angels were runner ups to Britton, so they must be willing to spend big. The Cubs or Braves might step up, but yes, the Sox seem to be the team with the biggest need at closer. It comes down to the money.

The same 3 questions remain from before the winter meetings. 1. Who will we get for a closer, if anyone? My guess is we get Cody Allen and/or Brad Brach. We may possibly trade for a low cost closer. 2. Which catcher will we choose to trade away? We may not trade any of the 3, as Swihart can play other positions. We ended up needing all 3 last year. 3. Will Pedey actually recover sufficiently to be our starting second baseman? This will not be answered until we see it happen. He could look good, then get hurt day 1.

Gut feeling or do you have some clues to provide us?

I was very worried about the amount of prospects traded by DD. It was a big gamble that paid off. It would have really sucked had we not won last year. Now that we won, part of me is thinking why not start now and try to minimize the longer term outlook by starting the rebuild now, but a bigger part of me is thinking our current team, as is, even without CK and JK, is too damn good to not take another serious try for a 2019 ring. That being said, I'm thinking, sure, let's try to win in 2019, but not at the expense of 2021 and beyond (assuming 2020 is the reset season). The Eovaldi deal was a bit puzzling, but he can be very helpful in 2021& 2022. I think the priority, today, is to do our best to win in 2019 without hurting 2021. Maybe the 2019 budget can go over the $40M line, but longer term deals must be viewed against the projected 2021 budget and roster. If the reset is going to happen after this year, all 2+ year deals need to be considered according to the reset. (Who do we trade? Who do we not re-sign? How bad will we allow the team to be in 2020? How good can the 2021 team be, assuming the tax is reset and we are allowed to spend $39M over the line?)

It's so hard projecting relief pitcher future production. Even with pretty steady guys like CK and Britton. Look what the RP'ers did with COL last year.Look at Andrew Miller. Other recent signings (in hindsight): How many look good now? W Davis $52M/3 M Minor $28M/3 J McGee $27M/3 B Shaw $27M/3 B Morrow $21M/2 T Hunter $18M/2 J Nicasio $17M/2 A Reed $17M/2 P Neshek $16M/2 J Smith $15M/2 G Holland $14M/1 Cishek $13M/2 Gregerson $11M/2 2017 Chapman $86M/5 Jansen $80M/5 Melancon $62M/4 B Cecil $31M/4 M Dunn $19M/3 Ziegler $16M/2 Tazaqwa $12M/2 T Wood $12M/2 2016 D O'Day $31M/4 --- OUCH! M Estrada $26M/2 J Soria $25M/2 R Madson $22M/3 T Sipp $18M/3 S Kelley $15M/3 Clippard $13M/2 Bastardo $12M/2 C Young $12M/2 M Lowe $11M/2 J Axford $10M/2 J Motte $10M/2 Kind of a scary list.

Actually, Betts, JD, Bogey, Holt and Moreland's B choice showed slight regression from 2018. That's 5 out of the 10 players with 400+ PAs projected regressing.

Assuming no injuries (unlikely), which line would you project for these pitchers: Pitcher IP/ ERA My Choices in RED Sale A. 195+/2.25 B. 180+/2.40 C. 160+/2.70 Price A. 195+/3.20 B. 180+/3.60 C. 160+/4.00 Porcello A. 200+/3.80 B. 190+/4.10 C. 170+/4.40 Eovaldi A. 180+/3.20 B. 165+/3.50 C. 150+/3.80 ERod A. 160+/3.60 B. 140+/3.80 C. 120+/4.00 Johnson/Velazquez/Wright combined SP & RP A. 300+/4.00 B. 250+/4.25 C. 200+/4.50+ PEN Barnes A. 65+/3.25 B. 60+/3.65 C. 55+/4.00 Brasier A. 65+/3.00 B. 60+/3.40 C. 55+/3.80 Hembree A. 65+/3.75 B. 60+/4.20 C. 55+/4.50 Thornburg A. 50+ IP B. 35-49 IP C. 0-34 IP Workman A. 50+/ 3.20 B. 40+/ 3.50 C. 30+/ 3.80

Assuming no major injuries (unlikely) which line would you project for these key players? Player A. OPS/ HRs choice better than 2018 B. OPS/ HRs choice close to 2018 C. OPS/ HRs choice worse than 2018 My choices in RED Betts (680 PAs) A. 1.100/ 35+ B. 1.050/ 30+ C. .950/ 25+ JDM (660 PAs) A. 1.050/ 45+ B. 1.000/ 42+ C. .900/ 35+ Beni (680 PAs) A. .900/ 24+ B. .850/ 18+ C. .800/ 15+ Bogey (640 PAs) A. .900/ 24+ B. .850/ 22+ C. .800/20+ JBJ (600 PAs) A. .800/18+ B. .750/15+ C. .700/ 12+ Devers (600 PAs) A. .800/ 28+ B. .750/ 24+ C. .700/ 20+ Moreland (400 PAs) A. .780/ 18+ B. .740/ 15+ C. .700/ 12+ Pearce (400 PAs) A. .850/ 18+ B. .780/ 15+ C. .720/ 12+ Nunez (500 PAs) A. .750/ 14+ B. .700/ 12+ C. .650/ 10+ Holt (450 PAs) A. .780/ 8+ B. .740/ 6+ C. .700/ 4+ Pedey A. 301+ PAs B. 151-300 PAs C. 150 or less PAs Vaz (350 PAs) A. .700/ 6+ B. .625/ 4+ C. .550/ 2+ Leon (250 PAs) A. .650/ 6+ B. .575/ 4+ C. .500/ 2+