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moonslav59

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Everything posted by moonslav59

  1. moonslav59
    The reset will be for one year, then we can revert back to $39M over the limit, if needed.
  2. moonslav59
    I haven't mentioned it, but I've thought about it. If he says no to something like my suggested offer, then we did what we could, and we move on. Maybe we keep Sale & JBJ.
  3. moonslav59
    Not as many, and that's why I believe a cliff happens, but that does not mean we can't build a team around Betts and his $32M luxury tax hit once we reset and are able to go $39M over the limit again. We will get a nice draft pick and international bonus money the year we crash while resetting. We'll still have JD and/or JBJ, Betts, Beni, Devers, Price, ERod, Vaz, Brasier, Barnes and can maybe count on 2-3 prospects to do okay in some key roles. There will be a lot of money to spend, if we say good bye to Bogey, Porcello, Sale and maybe JBJ or JD. I'm hoping we can keep the cliff to one year with maybe the second year being just a wild card hopeful. Through it all, I want Betts on my team and probably all the way to retirement. This might not be my best position of all time, and I can certainly understand the opposing arguments, but my gut says keep this guy. (BTW, if you know me, you know my gut rules all else.)
  4. moonslav59
    I guess in light of other GM's "terrible mistakes," the Thornburg trade was pretty light. The gutting of the farm could be viewed as a terrible mistake by some, but with the recent wing, not by me.
  5. moonslav59
    Yes, we have Johnson, but I'd prefer to upgrade there than at catcher. Plus, upgrading the catcher position would be much more costly than getting a better SP'er than Johnson. BTW, I'm not advocating upgrading anywhere, right now, than the pen. I wasn't really hinting at a personal relationship between catcher and pitcher, but more about the feeling of comfort a pitcher has with some catcher over others. I'm sure there are other catchers out there that could quickly build that comfort level up to par with Leon & Vaz, but to find one that can also hit would be very costly, and to me, that upgrade is not as high a priority as upgrading the pen. I slotted 2B ahead of catcher, but I'm not for upgrading there either, at least until we know more about the health of Pedey & Nunez.
  6. moonslav59
    I don't think the 6th starter is a big need, but it is more of a need than catcher, IMO.
  7. moonslav59
    Good summary of the state of GM debates. To me, all did well. All made terrible mistakes. All have a ring. All left the others with some good and bad for the next guy with DD's weak farm being the projected downside of his legacy.
  8. moonslav59
    ...like LAD.
  9. moonslav59
    I think many don't value pitch calling and tight relationships between catchers and pitchers enough. If they did, they would not have thought our catcher position is our weakest area this winter. I'd rank our highest need areas like this: 1. Closer 2. Set-up man 3. 2B 4. 6th starter 5. Catcher offense and 3B defense
  10. moonslav59
    True, but my point was that people say we can't win by paying someone $35M. We just paid Pablo, HRam, Pedey and Price $86M last year and only saw one of them play for us. And, we won it all. I realize it won't be easy, but if we reset after 2019 by losing Porcello, Bogey and maybe Sale, we can spend heavily in 2020 and build a pretty good team, and maybe by 2021 or 2022, we can be back on top. We will need to drat well, when we get those higher picks. We need to strike gold with some international signings, like we did a while back. We can't make many more mistakes like Pablo, HRam or Castillo, but when you have to fill in so many roster spots with free agents, you are bound to make at least one or two. 2020 with an extended Betts and no Bogey, Porcello and Sale (keeping JD): Price Eovaldi ERod Wright Johnson/Velazquez/DHernandez/Shawaryn Feltman Brasier Barnes Lakins Poyner (SP'er) 1. Betts 2. Beni 3. Devers 4. JDM 5. Bradley 6. Chavis/Dalbec 7. Pedey/Lin 8. Lin/Chatham/Hernandez 9. Vaz/Swihart If we can go $39M over in 2021 after resetting after 2019, we can upgrade several of the weak positions.
  11. moonslav59
    It won't bother me at all, if the Yanks get Machado. He'll help in the short term but will limit them down the road. We're still better than them with MM and us without CK.
  12. moonslav59
    My sentiments, exactly.
  13. moonslav59
    I think the $5M savings tips the balance.
  14. moonslav59
    Tulo to sign with the Yanks for the minimum.
  15. moonslav59
    Pedey, Chavis and Johnson for Tulo & Gray.
  16. moonslav59
    Tulo signs with Yanks for min salary.
  17. moonslav59
    Without Pablo & HRam we'd have been under the luxury line while paying Price $31M, JD $22M and Porcello $21M. If we didn't have Pablo & HRam, we could have paid Betts $31M and not had Porcello and been under the tax line.
  18. moonslav59
    We paid Pablo & HRam $41M this year and still won a ring. $35M does not mean all you can afford are scubs. Plus, if we extend now, maybe we can keep his luxury cost to $31 or 32M.
  19. moonslav59
    The Miggy deal is so different from an extension offered to Betts 2 years before his control is up. Can we move on?
  20. moonslav59
    As you all know, I'm a huge JBJ fan, but I'd rather keep Betts than JBJ & Bogey combined.
  21. moonslav59
    This year, Kimbrel saved 42 in 47 opportunities. The team went 46 for 66 (a misleading stat of 69.6%). Chapman went 32 out of 34 (a better save % than CK) and the team was 49 for 67. Jansen saved 38 out of 42 (about the same rate as CK) and the team went 48 for 72. Now, let's look at the closer by committee 2003 season as a possible worst case scenario. Kim saved 16 out of 19. Lyon 9 out of 12. The team saved 36 out of 57 (63.2%). The total team save % from 2018 to 2003 was 6.4% better. If you apply the .632 to 66 save chances, we'd have 42 saves in 2018 not 46, a loss of 4 saves. I know this is not an accurate portrayal of what might have been, but it does give some evidence that things might not have been too bad.
  22. moonslav59
  23. moonslav59
    I don't "believe in WAR" as an absolute determining factor. I do think we win the division and the WS without Kimbrel. Due to Sale's injury, we might have won without him (but not both him and Kimbrel).
  24. moonslav59
    I'm not sure either, but I think we would have. I don't want to get into hypotheticals, but if we had no Kimbrel, we'd have had his money to pick up someone better than Workman and Poyner.
  25. moonslav59
    Because he's the best player we've ever had in my lifetime. The opt out after 6 is better than no opt out for Betts. Plus, he gets more money in the first 6 years, especially his arb years, so if he invests it well, he can make much more money than just the salary. What we gain: We have the best player in Red Sox history (since Teddy) for 12 more years. We front load his money, so if he opts out, he might make more at age 32 and we don't have to worry about his post prime decline. Front loading also makes it easier to trade him late in his career.[ Our Luxury tax hit is just $31M for the last 10 years, not $35M. We make a ton of money off the marketing value Mookie brings to us. I'm sure there are more pluses I've not listed.
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