moonslav59

Yes, and they come back, even after 3 last place finishes in a 4 year stretch,

How? Our farm is weak, and we (probably) need to reset soon.

Agreed, but even the Yanks and Dodgers realize you have to reset every now and then, so you can spend like maniacs the other years. Our day will come. It's interesting to note how well both the Dodgers and Yanks did during their reset years.

I'd like to have Betts from ages 38-40 as well- not at $35M, of course, but I think he'll still be a plus player those ages. I'd think about offering him an extension right now of $400M/15. The extra money helps Betts: the extra years brings down the AVV.

Many of the worst long term deals on record involved players signed until age 40 or beyond. While 37 is well beyond prime, many great players do pretty well in years 33-37, or at least do very well for many of those years.

I would not have been "fine" had we not won a ring.

If it's about maximizing for 2019, we don't trade either one, but I agree that Sale gives us a better chance than Bogey. One could have reasoned that after winning in 2018, we could have traded Sale, Bogey, Porcello and anyone else not in our plans for 2020 and beyond, but that idea seems so crazy when we can bring back the same team for another run sans K & K.

Ages 33-37 are not always albatrosses. Barring injuries, I think Betts will have decent to good years those years, but I admit it's a huge gamble.

It was a big gamble, and it paid off. I kind of feel like we're playing on house money now. 2019 is an extra gift of us having a good chance to repeat. I'm fine with a cliff as we reset, but I want to keep it short, if possible.

That's how I see it. To me, if a reset is in order, either after 2019 or 2020, then the plan for 2019 should try and keep the "cliff years" to a minimum pr 1 to 2 years. That would likely mean we only acquire players who will be cost effective in 2-3 years or have just 1-2 years of team control left. That would likely mean we don't sign a top RP'er for 3 or more years, unless we plan on trading players before the reset year. If we traded Bogey for prospects this winter, some here would call for DD's firing. It's not a simple choice.

...or, you reset after 2019 and trade Betts and/or JBJ. ...or you trade Sale not Bogey.

That's what I've been saying all along. The 4 year Eovaldi deal really limits and 2+ year plans for a solid RP'er, unless we plan to trade salary after 2019 or not reset.

My point was more about how some might think we are still competitive (just like the Bleacher Report) after letting Sale and Betts walk, but we may finish in last place despite this optimism.

Keeping Sale, Bogey and Sale would just about kiss any chance to reset away. I guess we either keep way over the limit for several years, of DD gets fired, if you are correct. I guess we could cut Betts, JBJ and others loose after 2020 and try and reset then.

Yes, it all comes down to the plan to reset or not. If the plan to reset is for after 2019, then any RP'er we sign this winter should be a 1 year deal or maybe they and or others get traded after 2019. Or, we let several stars walk. If Henry is okay with being call the next King George, then by all means, spend, spend, spend away!

You know I love Sale, and who doesn't love JD, but with Price on the books, I can't see how we keep all 4: Betts, Price, Sale & JD. If we do, then there can be no Porcello, Bogey, JBJ and anyone else making more than $10M a year, meaning we'd probably have to trade Eovaldi, Barnes, Wright maybe JBJ and Vaz and/or others. This is why I am a cliff dweller. Trying to keep all 4 (Betts, Sale, JD and Price as we reset would likely mean seeing this team for 2020, and it begs the question- why keep all these 4, if we'd have no chance to win in 2020, and maybe even adding $40M+ to the 2021 budget might not be enough? Lets try to keep Eovaldi, JBJ and Vaz... 31 Sale 31 Price 17 Eovaldo 9 ERod 4 Wright (Injured) 1 Johnson/Velazquez/Shwaryn 1 Brasier 1 Feltman 1 Lakins 1 Poyner 1 Walden 1 Brewer 1. Beni LF $4 2. Betts RF $24 3. Devers 3B $1 4. JD DH $24 5. JBJ CF $12 6. Chavis/Dalbec 1B $1 7. Pedey/Lin 2B $14 8. Chatham SS $1 9. Vaz C $4 4 bench guys $4M $15M benefits This is about $203M min. That leaves $5M to upgrade the pen, SS, 1B, 2B... It's not happening.

We won paying HRam, Pablo and Castillo over $50M. It certainly is a big risk, and to me it's a close call, but I'd give Betts $360/12.

I think the 15 minor league players make less than $550, so we will have a little more than you suggest. However, we have some arb players in 2020, so that $16M for 9 players is actually not accurate. Plus, it's hard to win with 16 players making an average of $1.4M. 2020 arbs beyond Betts, ERod & JBJ: Barnes 2 of 3 Leon 4 of 4 Wright 3 of 3 Hembree 2 of 3 Workman 3 of 3 Swihart 2 of 4 Beni's1st arb I suppose we could trade all of these, except Beni, and maybe get some min wage decent talent, but a team with just 11-12 stars and 13 scubs will not be a contender. Barnes, Beni and Wright's arbs might eat up most of the $16M you speak of, leaving no money for the other 13 players.

Should be a good game, but you are right. This is horrible.

Bleacher Report Projections: 2012: 88-74 (3rd place) (Grantland: 87-75 3rd) I'll come right out and say it: The Red Sox are not good enough to win the American League East. For all the runs the Sox are going to score, they have no assurances that their pitching is going to be any better than it was in 2011. Even if everything goes well, the ceiling for this pitching staff is pretty low. Pitching is exactly why the Sox don't measure up against the Rays and the hated Yankees. Both of them have deep, talented starting rotations, and it must be noted that the Yankees have an outstanding bullpen. The two of them are the teams to beat in the AL East. The best the Sox can hope for is to land one of the two wild-card spots. It's possible, but their main competition will be the Los Angeles Angels, another team with better pitching than the Sox. 2014: 91-61 (1st) (Grantland: 89-73 2nd) The Boston Red Sox had a quiet winter but return the nucleus of a team that dominated the regular season and captured a World Series in October. A step back from excellence could occur, but not enough to knock this squad below the 90-win range. In a division without a truly great team, that could be a formula for a return trip to the postseason. 2015: 90-72 (1st) (Grantland 87-75 1st) The additions of Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval, as well as a full season from Mookie Betts, could give them the highest-scoring offense in the league. What they lack in front-line pitching they should be able to make up for in overall pitching depth, as there are a number of young arms ready to make an impact. They're a risky pick, but if they can even put up league-average production on the mound, they should have the offense to carry them.

Well, those Ben teams were not projected to finish last, either.

Assuming no more additions (doubtful) and 100% health (doubtful), here is how I see our 25 man roster looking on opening day: SP: Sale, Price, Eovaldi, Porcello, Rodriguez, Wright (AAA: Velazquez, Shawaryn, Shepherd, ERamirez- AA DHernandez) RP: Brasier, Barnes, Thornburg, Hembree, Workman, Johnson (AAA: Lakins, Poyner, Brewer, Walden, Putman -AA Feltman) C: Vazquez, Leon Traded: Swihart (AAA- Centeno & OHernandez) 1B: Pearce, Moreland (AAA: Ockimey) 2B: Pedroia, Holt (AAA-M Hernandez, Renda) 3B- Devers, Nunez (AAA- Chavis- AA Dalbec) SS- Bogaerts (AAA- Lin) LF: Benintendi (AAA- Travis/Brentz) CF- Bradley (AAA- Castillo) RF- Betts (AAA- G Hernandez) DH- JD Martinez * If Pedey starts the year on the DL, we can keep Swihart or add Lin to the roster. * If Wright starts the year on the DL, Velazquez could be added.

I'm not high on Robertson, either. MLBTRs has Ottavino getting $30M/3. That would put us $5M over the max penalty line and add $10M a year to the 2020 and 2021 budgets, which to me, is the major concern. While $10M may not seem like a lot, when we will be looking to reset the tax by letting several key players walk, that $10M might make a huge difference. I don't like the idea of going cheap on the closer slot, but I wanted Eovaldi more. The Pearce argument only affects 2019. We are super strong every where else but closer. Most teams have more than one hole. We also have some money to spend mid season- an area DD seems to do very well. I'd like to see us trade for a decent, low-cost RP'er and save some money for July. I think we will be the favorites, if we do that, even if the Yanks add Machado and the Dodgers add Harper. (Houston does not appear to be getting better.)

We're paying Price $31M and have been able to surround him with a lot of talent. The problem is, we don't seem to have much help in the pipeline- the cheap cost players we will need to fill out the roster around Betts. Price will be on the books for 2 more years after Betts reaches free agency, and there is little chance we will be able to pay multiple players over $15M with Betts and Price taking up close to $65M between them. One plan would be to add several players making $4-14M, instead of bringing back Sale, Bogey, Porcello and maybe JD, if he opts out. If we reset after 2019 and go back to $40M over for 2021, I think we can have a decent team after one off year. Maybe we get a nice draft pick after having the one bad year. Maybe a few prospects we have now fill some key roles. We do still have young players like ERod, Beni and Devers, but their arb costs will begin to pinch the budget by 2021 and 2022. I'm hopeful we can keep the "cliff" to a minimum of 1-2 years, but I'd really like to have Betts around to give us something to watch through hard times as we try to rebuild a team around him. Maybe we don't get to championship level until after Price's deal expires, but we may be pretty good before then.

True, but maybe he gets batter for his senior year. Alabama and Clemson do stand alone and have for a while.