moonslav59

The other thing to notice from this data is this: Months that JBJ's monthly OPS since Aug 2015 was... 3- 1.000+ 0- .840 to .999 5- .770 to .839 3- .677 to .736 5- .596 to .651 1-- at .517 8 months over .770 3 months .675 to .770 6 below .651 11 out of 17 months, he's been over .677. It seems like he's had more bad months than this.

Wow, that was a bit of shocker, but against the lefty, it looks good to me. Nice to have Moreland for PH duty.

Good analogy, and I've often wondered why he doesn't have more career HRs with that hard hit%. Mike always had his share.

Our pitching has done pretty well as well.... Last 28 days Starter ERA 1.29 Sale 2.99 Price 3.48 Porcello 3.80 ERod 4.13 Wright 0.00 Haley 2.19 Johnson 3.00 Velazquez 0.90 Workman 0.93 Hembree 2.16 Kimbrel 3.38 Barnes 5.40 Kelly

Yes, the higher K rate accounts for much of his poor results, but he's not that far from others who seem to have better luck: 25% Devers 24% T Shaw 24% Leon 23% JBJ 21% Moreland 21% Young 19% HRam 19% Holt 18% Vaz 17% Bogey 17% Beni 12% Betts 11% Pedey (2015-2018)

Those stats are select. If you break them down by the month, he is consistently bad for most months, BUT always seems to have 1 good, and 1 great month. Okay, let's take a closer look at JBJ since AUG of 2015. Red: Hard Hit% under 30%/ OPS around .650 or below Blue: hard hit % above 33%/ OPS above .730 JBJ Month:Hard Hit% / OPS 8/15 39%/ 1.163 9/15 31%/ .736 4/16 38%/ .807 5/16 39%/ 1.175 6/16 39%/ .805 7/16 35%/ .839 8/16 31%/ .651 9/16 34%/ .731 4/17 44%/ .596 5/17 30%/ .808 6/17 41%/ 1.009 7/17 36%/ .596 8/17 28%/ .770 9/17 23%/ .517 4/18 33%/ .600 5/18 32%/ .599 6/18 44%/ .677 Let's use Bogey as a comp 8/15 26%/ .761 9/15 37%/ .876 4/16 30%/ .785 5/16 35%/ 1.017 6/16 29%/ .815 7/16 29%/ .830 8/16 28%/ .599 9/16 33%/ .750 4/17 22%/ .731 5/17 34%/ .949 6/17 39%/ .763 7/17 25%/ .452 8/17 24%/ .683 9/17 38%/ .803 4/18 28%/ 1.171 5/18 42%/ .705 6/18 39%/ .855 Here's what I find interesting and perhaps unexplained: Both had 7 months where their hard hit% was good (blue) and their OPS was good (blue), but then it gets wacky. Bogey has 4 months where he did not hit the ball hard (red) but had a good OPS (blue)- JBJ just 1. Bogey had zero months where he hit the ball hard (blue) or so-so (black) and had a bad OPS (red), yet JBJ had 5! This is amazingly bad luck or something I am missing

I have not denied that his stats are mostly fueled by 1 streak or two each season, in fact, I mentioned it. Yes, I'd prefer a more consistent hitter. Yes, I'd prefer he not swing for the fences every PA. He is what he is, and I don't understand a lot of his thinking and approach, but the fact is, he ends up around .730-.830 jest about every year since his horrendous start in the bigs. Streaky hitters still contribute. It's just all bunched up in short time frames. I wish he was more consistent, and maybe someday he'll figure out what he's doing wrong during his cold stretches and adjust more quickly. The fact that, overall, he's hit the ball as hard as Betts since 2015 kind of surprised me. That can't all come from 2 months each season, can it? Maybe I'm wrong, but I do feel like he's had some bad luck during some of his cold streaks. His BAbip since from 2015-2016 was .312. From 2017 to 2018 it has been .282. it's .255 this year, despite the high hard hit ball % that has remained pretty consistently around 36% every year. I know his plate discipline and lack of adjustments is a big part of his problems, but it doesn't negate the fact that he hits the ball hard and often gets nothing to show for it. The shift has a lot to do with that, and if he learned how to bunt or go the other way, those numbers would probably change to the good.

I doubt it could be viewed as before Betts. It would likely be instead of Betts. I doubt we can pay 3 guys over $30M for even 1 year, let alone 3-4 years in a row. Don't get me wrong. I'd love to keep Sale and Betts, but if I had to choose-- close call-- I'd take Betts. Now, Sale for 5 vs Betts for 10 changes the debate and risk factors, but I doubt sale settles for just 5 years.

Most lines are far from -110, and we will likely have home field for a wild card game. My point was that being a favorite usually means you win. I'd hate for us to have to win a play-in to advance, for sure, but I value having a rested Sale as more valuable. It's a close call. having to win a play in or a tired Sale both would suck.

Well a win vs NYY insured one more loss for them, while a win vs LAA does not. Beating LAA is +.05 games. Beating NYY is +1.0 games, but more importnatly, it's a 2.0 game swing with a win vs a loss, where as a win vs a loss vs LAA is just a 1 game swing in the standings.

If managers lost confidence in a RP'er based on just his last 2 appearances, there's be nobody left to have any confidence in. Maybe we have diffeent views on what inconsistent means, but I'm not sure how Kelly fits that bill. Hembree: yes. Barnes: probably. Kelly Game 1: horrible 14 straight with no runs allowed and no inherited runs allowed 3 games in a row where inherited runs scored + 1 of his own 8 games in a row with no runs or IRs scored. From May 29th to June 28, he's been a mess. 8 of his 12 games, he's let up an ER or IRS. I guess one could view this as highly inconsistent, but my guess is most RP'ers have stretches quite like this. Barnes has allowed 11 IRS and 10 of his own over 34 appearances. They've been pretty well spread out, except for one bad 3 game stretch at the end of April.

I can see the "try anything" philosophy, if things were going bad for the 3, but they've been better than most 6-8 innings RP'ers in MLB. I do wish we had a more solid 8th inning/spot closer pitcher, but certainly Buttrey is not that guy for 2018. At best, we'd likely just be adding another semi-consistent 6-8 inning guy.

It's a fact that he has hit the ball hard for a long time with little results, until the last week or two. I've been watching him closely on keeping his eyes on the ball. It does appear, at times, that he does pull his head up before the ball reaches his bat. He's not the only hitter that does that, and even very consistently good hitters do that from time to time. Yes, numbers don't lie. Here's a few numbers from 2015-2018-- a large enough sample size, for sure: Hard Hit Balls: 34.8% Betts 34.6% JBJ 31.6% Beni 30.7% Bogey Soft Hit Balls: 16.0% JBJ 16.7% Betts 17.6% Beni 17.6% Pedey 20.0% Bogey OPS .871 Betts .815 Beni .815 Beni .795 Pedey .785 Bogey .767 JBJ .704 Holt .767 is not a fluke. Yes, it is largely sustained by a few mega hot streaks, but the numbers don't lie. .767 and GG type defense is a sure plus to any team.

Yes, and they are very accurate at what they do. The favorites win way more than the underdogs. If the odds maker puts the line at -105 or -110, then yes, it's maybe a "crap shoot", but even then, the favorite wins more than the underdog.

OPS over last 14 days 1.133 Leon 1.053 JD .967 JBJ .947 Moreland .909 Nunez .874 Devers Notice how many of these bat in the 7-9 slots. .849 Betts .841 Bogey .769 Vaz .681 Holt .604 Beni .333 Swihart

Last 30 Days Hard Hit% 45 JBJ 43 JD 43 Vaz 40 Moreland 39 Bogey 38 Betts 37 Leon 35 Devers 30 Beni 29 Holt 28 Nunez Medium + hard hit % 93 Leon 89 JBJ 87 Betts 87 Moreland 84 Bogey 84 JD 84 Beni 81 Holt 79 Vaz 75 Devers 74 Nunez

If the 3 stooges are all in the top 45 RP'ers in MLB, they must be more consistent than most teams have after their closer. Sure, none of these 3 are very consistent, but how many RP'ers in MLB are viewed as consistent? These 3 are among the best that are not considered "consistent". Buttrey? Really? Are you mad?

I listed the 8+ year deals of over $160M and there was a stark difference between those signed to players under the age of 27 and those between 27-29 and those to players 30 or older. ARod signed at 25 (2001); under .910 just 2 out of 10 years and never under .847. Stanton's extension started at age 25. He's got 9 years left. He'll only be 37 the last year of his deal. Posey's started at 26 (9 year deal): Jury still out Heyward's deal started at 26 and looks like a bust (8 years) Jeter's deal started right at age 27: I'd say it was close to a wash. (Lots of debate on that call.) Kemp's started at age 27 and was a bust for the most part. Prince Fielder's contract started at age 28 and the injury made it a bust. Joe Mauer's started at age 28 and has been a bust, IMO. Altuve's (28) is a 7 year deal and just started. Miggy's first year was at age 33: Bust Pujols' first year was at age 32: Bust Cano's first year was at age 31: Jury still out, but his highest 5 OPS years were all with NYY. Votto's started at age 30: so far - very good. Chris Davis at age 30: looks like bust, so far. Teixeira started at 29- I'd say a let down Manny's started at age 29 and was a success. .

I disagree. The oddsmakers are right much more than wrong.

I realize the play-in game hurts our chances, but not having a strong Sale all but kills our chances. Plus, we've done great winning with our 6-9 starters pitching, so I'm not so sure resting our starters is going to hurt our division chances all that much. Also, having rested starters gives them a better chance at winning when they do pitch in the regular season, especially in August and September. I do have some evidence to support my position. Sale is 25-29 over his career in AUG/SEP. How is pitching him more often going to help us win more games down the stretch and win the division? His ERA is under 2.68 in May, June and July (career), but jumps to 3.22 in AUG and 3.78 in SEP. Over Price's career, he seems to get stronger as the season moves towards fall, but he's really struggled in October. I don't think more rest would hurt him. Porcello has not shown many signs of breaking down by season's end over his career. ERod is on pace for over 163 IP. That's 26 more than last year and much more than any other MLB season. He did pitch 145 innings on the farm back in 2013. Now, to our 6-9 starters: I know I often harp on posters who use the most recent small sample sizes to try and project what will or should happen going forward, but our starter depth has been very strong, so far this year. 2-0 2.53 Velazquez 1-0 1.80 Johnson 1-1 4.13 Wright 0-1 13.50 Beeks In 9 starts by these 4 pitchers, we have a team record of 7-2. We're 7-1 with Beeks excluded. Wright, Johnson & Velazquez, as starters, have a combined ERA of 3.22. I know my position is not popular, and it wasn't last year either, but last year's playoff performances by our SP'ers only strengthens my position.

I'm hopeful the beefing up, off season workout regime Holt is coming off of, will help him to not fall off a cliff like he seems to do every summer/fall. On Nunez, I still think it is all related to his knee, and I think the Sox will try to give him a long period of rest at some point maybe after the Yankee series) by putting him on the DL. That will also give Phillips a chance to show how much he's got left in his tank. I'm not as worried about 2B as many are, but I have concern.

I'm no expert on swing analysis, but I'll say it again, I love JBJ's swing despite it being a bit too long and loopy, and I don't really see any difference in his swing now vs, when he is slumping. He's just making more and harder contact now. (Just my opinion.)

While I don't have a ton of confidence or faith in Kelly, Barnes and Hembree, they've gotten the job done for almost a year and a half now. In terms of WAR, not a stat I like all that much for RP'ers, here's how our RP'ers place in WAR since the start of 2017 (90+ IP): 2. Kimbrel 4.1 20. Barnes 1.9 38. Kelly 1.2 46. Hembree 0.9 If you figure there are 30 teams in MLB, each team should have 1.5 in the top 46. We have 4, including each and every one of the 3 stooges. That being said, I'd love for us to pick up an excellent 8th inning guy, so we can turn these 3 into 6th and 7th inning pitchers. I'm not sure we have the budget space and pieces to trade to make that happen, but as of right now, I'd say that is our Highest need to upgrade position. One stat I like to use to place value on RP'ers is WHIP. 1. Kimbrel 0.74 25. Kelly 1.15 27. Barnes 1.17 (3 in the top 30 is very nice) 63. Hembree 1.38 How about xFIP-? 1. Kimbrel 45 9. Barnes 71 (WOW!) 27. Hembree 87 45. Kelly 94 Again, 4 in the top 45 but 2 in the top 10!

Updated Sox OPS 1.101 Betts 1.042 JD .905 Moreland .882 Beni .854 Bogey .787 Holt .717 Devers .657 Leon .649 Nunez .626 JBJ .580 Vaz .404 Swihart JBJ was at .563 before the game on June 24th! It just took 4 games to go up 53 points. He was at .502 on May 19th.

I agree 100%. I was just responding to your comment that Bogey was just 25. He may be young, but it's more about years of team control. Yes, the Mets do not want 1 more year of Bogey for 2 years of degrom. That's backwards for them.