moonslav59

I get your point, but there was a strong reason for us to expect JBJ to get hot: he's done it 3 years in a row (maybe 4, if this is truly a hot streak we are seeing now). Why is there a strong expectation for Bird to not only get hot, but to improve to a level point expected of 1Bmen? What is his history? 2014: .869 in A+/AA 2015: .871 OPS in just 178 PAs (.825 in AA/AAA) 2016: .700 in fall league (78 PAs) 2017: .710 OPS in just 170 PAs (.99a in AA/A+) His minor league numbers look very nice, despite just 54 HRs in 1628 PAs. There are oddles and oodles of players who did great on the farm and ended up at below .770 in the bigs (his current career OPS) or .690 (his current OPS). Bird has a very limited window of ML success and that was way back in 2015 (46 games). Looks like apples and oranges in many ways, but yes, both JBJ and Bird had fans hoping they'd improve.

1. Betts RF 2. Beni LF 3. JD DH 4. Moreland 1B 5. Bogey SS 6. Holt 2B 7. Devers 3B 8. Vaz C 9. JBJ CF

I'm just not sure how 2 more excellent seasons would add more value to JD. He'll be 2 years older. Maybe more teams will be out from under their reset-the-tax mode, but I'm just not seeing JD getting a mega deal at age 32, when he couldn't get it at age 30. Of course, he's never led the league in HRs and RBI, like he is now, but the age and defense aspects are real.

While agree that money is what it's all about, I think giving 2 teams a shot at the final berth is worthwhile, especially with unbalanced schedules and weak divisions. If you do as Slasher suggests and go to a no division format, then you really reduce a lot of rivalry games (more money), and we end up taking 2 west coast trips every season. 14 teams x 10 games (5H & 5A)=140 22 games vs other league (maybe 3 gms x 6 teams + 2 gms x 2 teams) or 14 teams x 8 games (4H + 4A)= 112 10 teams x 3 games=30 5 teams x 4 games=20 (Not very unbalanced) You'd still end up with unbalance due to playing different NL/AL teams, but it's closer to parity. If you do away with inter league play: 6 teams x 11 games= 66 8 teams x 12 games= 96 Still slightly unbalanced I'm in favor of something more radical: a total realignment of MLB by doing away with the NL & AL and forming 5 divisions with 3 wild card teams (no play-in). East BOS NYY NYM PHI BAL PIT South WSH ATL TBR FLA HOU TEX North TOR DET CLE CIN CWS Cubs Central MN MIL STL KCR COL AZ West SEA OAK SFG LAD LAA SDP Schedule: vs own DIV 16 gms x 5 team= 80 3 gms x 18 teams=54 4 gms x 7 teams= 28

I agree, and the best part about getting a solid #2 RP'er is that it pushes everyone but Kimbrel down a notch. Kimbrel ______ Kelly Barnes Hembree Workman Wright or Pom Velzquez/Poyner/Walden/Scott/Haley/Beeks

Current fWAR numbers: 4.6 Betts 3.2 JD 2.9 Beni 2.4 Bogey 1.5 Moreland 0.9 Holt 0.8 Devers 0.5 JBJ 0.3 Leon -0.1 Ramirez -0.2Lin -0.3 Vaz -0.5 Nunez -0.6 Swihart NYY 3.8 Judge 2.4 Stanton 2.4 Gregorius 2.0 Hicks 1.9 Gardner 1.3 Sanchez 1.2 Torres 0.8 Romine 0.8 Andujar 0.6 Torreyes 0.2 Birs 0.2 Frazier 0.1 Austin -0,1 Drury -0.5 Wade -1.0 Walker Pitching Boston 3.6 Sale 2.0 Porcello 1.7 Price 1.4 ERod 0.3 Johnson 0.1 Wright -0.1 Pom 0.9 Barnes 0.8 Kimbrel 0.5 Kelly 0.4 Velazquez 0.4 Hembree 0.3 Poyner 0.2 Walden 0.1 Smith NYY 4.2 Severino 1.1 Sab 1.0 Gray 0.7 German 0.5 Loaisiga 0.5 Tanaka 0.2 Montgomery 1.6 Chapman 1.2 Green 1.0 Robertson 0.8 Holder 0.8 Betances 0.2 Warren 0.1 Cole -0.4 Shreve Top 3 SP combined WAR 7.3 BOS 6.3 NYY Top 4 8.7 BOS 7.0 NYY Top 4 Pen 4.6 NYY 2.6 BOS Top 5 pen 5.4 NYY 3.0 BOS When you compare us to the Yanks, the only clear weakness we have is with the pen. Although our pen has seemingly over performed for about a year and a half now, maybe they should start getting the respect they deserve, but that being said, we are still way behind the Yanks in this crucial area. With Smith out all year and Thornburg demoted to AA, I'm not so sure we can hope for much help from within. Maybe Workman with a 0.3 fWAR in just 9 IP can fill a need, but we may need to upgrade here, if we want to close this gap with the Yanks (and Astros).

Top 3 SP combined WAR 7.3 BOS 6.3 NYY Top 4 8.7 BOS 7.0 NYY Top 4 Pen 4.6 NYY 2.6 BOS Top 5 pen 5.4 NYY 3.0 BOS

Current fWAR numbers: 4.6 Betts 3.2 JD 2.9 Beni 2.4 Bogey 1.5 Moreland 0.9 Holt 0.8 Devers 0.5 JBJ 0.3 Leon -0.1 Ramirez -0.2Lin -0.3 Vaz -0.5 Nunez -0.6 Swihart NYY 3.8 Judge 2.4 Stanton 2.4 Gregorius 2.0 Hicks 1.9 Gardner 1.3 Sanchez 1.2 Torres 0.8 Romine 0.8 Andujar 0.6 Torreyes 0.2 Birs 0.2 Frazier 0.1 Austin -0,1 Drury -0.5 Wade -1.0 Walker Pitching Boston 3.6 Sale 2.0 Porcello 1.7 Price 1.4 ERod 0.3 Johnson 0.1 Wright -0.1 Pom 0.9 Barnes 0.8 Kimbrel 0.5 Kelly 0.4 Velazquez 0.4 Hembree 0.3 Poyner 0.2 Walden 0.1 Smith NYY 4.2 Severino 1.1 Sab 1.0 Gray 0.7 German 0.5 Loaisiga 0.5 Tanaka 0.2 Montgomery 1.6 Chapman 1.2 Green 1.0 Robertson 0.8 Holder 0.8 Betances 0.2 Warren 0.1 Cole -0.4 Shreve

I'll add that these numbers highlight how wrong i was about who we should and should not have signed. I wanted Moose over Moreland.

Plus, why would NYM want Porcello, who has just 1 year left? I suppose they could flip him for a young hitter.

The ERA- differential is pretty significant, and our top 4 starters needed in the playoffs seem much better than the Yankees. ERA- 50 Severino 60 Sale 76 Sabathia 84 Porcello 86 Price 90 ERod 110 Tanaka 118 Gray Their 1 & 2 have better numbers, so far, but I'm guessing Price or Porcello pass CC by season's end. Our 3 & 4 blow NY's away... so far.

LOL. You got that right about this poster.

I've always been very hopeful about Marco, but I'm not counting on him for anything this year. Sad story.

I know you don't think too highly of our starters, especially our 3-6 slot starters, but we've had better numbers than the Yankee starters, to date. ERA- 5. BOS 87 7. NYY 91 SIERA 5. BOS 3.65 7. NYY 3.75 WHIP 6. NYY 1.19 7. BOS 1.21 xFIP- 6. NYY 90 8. BOS 91 K/BB 3.39 BOS 3.24 NYY ERA- 50 Severino 60 Sale 76 Sabathia 84 Porcello 86 Price 90 ERod 110 Tanaka 118 Gray 141 German (not counted on for playoffs) 159 Pom (not counted on for playoffs) Looks to me like our 3-6 starters have been our strength, and I didn't include Wright or our other starters on this list, and they have done a very good job as 6-9 slot starters).

What 10 year contract was ever given to a player under 27? This is a more accurate question to ask. ARod signed at 25 (2001); under .910 just 2 out of 10 years and never under .847. Stanton's extension started at age 25. He's got 9 years left. He'll only be 37 the last year of his deal. Posey's started at 26 (9 year deal): Jury still out Heyward's deal started at 26 and looks like a bust (8 years) Jeter's deal started right at age 27: I'd say it was close to a wash. (Lots of debate on that call.) Kemp's started at age 27 and was a bust for the most part. Prince Fielder's contract started at age 28 and the injury made it a bust. Joe Mauer's started at age 28 and has been a bust, IMO. Altuve's (28) is a 7 year deal and just started. Miggy's first year was at age 33: Bust Pujols' first year was at age 32: Bust Cano's first year was at age 31: Jury still out, but his highest 5 OPS years were all with NYY. Votto's started at age 30: so far - very good. Chris Davis at age 30: looks like bust, so far. Teixeira started at 29- I'd say a let down Manny's started at age 29 and was a success. . I might have missed someone, but these are all the 8+ year deals at $160M+. Clearly, the younger the signee, the lower the chance of a bust.

Let's say we give him 12 after the arb years. 4 years from 28-31 4 years from 32-35 4 years from 36-39 8 of 9 of the 12 years should be very productive. That beats the hell out of most 8+ year deals given to 31 or 32 year olds, and those are the contracts giving long term deals a bad name.

Many were freaking out- not all.

He may, but he might also find out the market for a great DH has not improved for him.

This thread has given the JBJ and great defense defenders an opportunity to make our points. At $6.1M JBJ is still a plus. If he can get his OPS to .650, he'd be a significant plus. Maybe his low OPS numbers will keep his arb raises down.

He'll always bring us plus defense, something Phillips might not be able to do anymore.

With Wright and Pom both out hurt, maybe Cora will feel like he can't afford the luxury.

Last 28 days OPS .774 BOS (.824 last 14 days) .736 NYY (.725 last 14 days) OPS against .613 NYY (.631 last 14 days) .637 BOS (.692 last 14 days) ERA 2.35 NYY (2.48 last 14 days) 3.32 BOS (4.26) WHIP 1.02 NYY (1.12 last 14 days) 1.18 BOS (1.22)

Other Sox- Yanks split comps: Team OPS .790 BOS .782 NYY vs RHPs .811 BOS .771 NYY vs LHPs .813 NYY .727 BOS Home .856 BOS .810 NYY Away .754 NYY .729 BOS 1-2 slots .904 BOS .839 NYY 3-6 slots .842 BOS .799 NYY 7-9 .729 NYY .630 BOS Under 25 y/o .861 BOS (1273 PAs) .762 NYY (1033) 26-30 y/o .838 NYY (1512) .742 BOS (1150 PAs) 31-35 y/o .743 BOS (721 PAs) .648 NYY (478) C .787 NYY .613 BOS 1B .855 BOS .656 NYY 2B .788 NYY .631 BOS 3B .799 NYY .686 BOS SS .848 BOS .780 NYY LF .875 BOS .767 NYY CF .781 NYY .768 BOS RF .999 BOS .891 NYY DH .856 BOS .838 NYY RISP .849 BOS (.806 with 2 outs) .771 NYY Men On .816 BOS .781 NYY Late & Close .736 NYY .694 BOS High Leverage .815 BOS (.836 Medium) .803 NYY (.810 Medium) At Fenway or Yankee Stadium .810 BOS .732 NYY

Updated after last night's games: 1 slot 1. BOS 1.045 5. NYY .769 2 slot 2. NYY .913 9. BOS .760 3 slot 3. BOS .887 15. NYY .662 (Unbelievable!) 4 slot 1. NYY 1.043 2. BOS .982 5 slot 5. BOS .751 10. NYY .678 6 slot 2. NYY .820 5. BOS .743 7 slot 11. NYY .642 12. BOS .636 8 slot 5. NYY .719 11. BOS .604 9 slot 1. NYY .795 4. BOS .641 The gaps are closing quickly in the 7-9 slots, and we've almosr passed the Yanks in the 7 slot, but there's still a long way to go for our bottom order hitters.

Most RP'ers go through rough patches here and there. Not long ago, we were talking about DFA'ing Hembree. Now, he's one of our best performing pitchers. I'm not worried.