moonslav59

Erod coming back helped, too. Picking up Eovaldi, too.

I'd keep Betts, Sale, Devers and Beni over Bogey. (Not just about the money on the latter two)

I was impressed by Bogey's gains on offense. He seems to have found the groove, so to speak. I had hoped for growth on defense over the years, but his great offense overshadows any limitations he has on defense, and then some. He did get plus on UZR/150 for only the second time in his career, so maybe there's hop he can keep that up, too. (His DRS numbers have been horrible- like worst in MLB bad.) I'm glad we have him for another year, and it will be hard to keep him at the price tag he will want and get. Cracking the 100 RBI mark was very nice. The 71 XBHs shows he's tapping into the power expected of him, after hitting just 48 last year.

These numbers don't count how well pitchers do with certain catchers. I'm not sure our pitchers would ever reach the comfort level they need with YG. Besides, spending $13M at the catcher position would adversely affect what we can spend in higher need areas.

The jury is still out to some extent, but there has to be some major steps made by some of DD's picks in 2019 to show all is not lost. We've had some key injuries and unwanted suspensions, but there still is a little hope on a few guys. The problem is, the best hopes are at least 2-3 years away.

No doubt. No stats show what Sale or any pitcher can do going forward, but he really has not had a significant injury history. His endurance issues have been a concern to me all along. I was for resting him more in 2017 and was fine with how we rested him this year, too, although it didn't seem to help, this time. I am certainly concerned about signing Sale to a long term deal next winter. I am also concerned about signing Eovaldi to 4 years.

We don't have the prospects needed to get him. We'd have to trade Beni or Devers just to get them listening.

No way. He is not a good defender.

How about his IP numbers?

Most recent studiews show the 3 slot is not the ideal spot for the best hitter. The Book says the #3 hitter comes to the plate with, on average, fewer runners on base than the #4 or #5 hitters. So why focus on putting a guy who can knock in runs in the #3 spot, when the two spots after him can benefit from it more? Surprisingly, because he comes to bat so often with two outs and no runners on base, the #3 hitter isn't nearly as important as we think. This is a spot to fill after more important spots are taken care of.

Porcello and Eovaldi might mean no Bogey.

I'm not ready to write Sale off so quickly. 1) He still started 27 regular season games in 2018. 2) He started 29 or more games in 5 of his previous 6 seasons with the only one under being 26 starts in 2014. 3) He's been over 200 IP in 4 of his last 6 seasons and 190+ in 5 of 7. Am I worried? Yes. We should know more after next season.

I'm fine with Betts first. It's nice having power there, too. Apparently, the theory is that your best hitter bats 2nd and your next best (with more power, maybe) hits 4th. That would mean Betts 2nd and JD 4th. The theory also says the 5th slot is more important than the 3rd slot, so maybe Moreland/Pearce up 3rd is by that book. 1. Beni 2. Betts 3. Moreland/Pearce (or Pedey) 4. JD 5. Bogey 6. Devers 7. Pedey 8. JBJ 9. Vaz/Leon (Maybe put Bogey up 1st vs LHPs. Maybe move Devers to 5th vs RHPs.)

Yes, but is also could come down to these choices: Eovaldi x 4 (2019-2022) vs Porcello x 4 (2020-2023) or Eovaldi x 4 (2019-2022) vs Sale x 6 or 7 (2020-???)

I used to think the best hitter should bat 3rd, but not anymore. It really is not the best slot for Betts or JD. In theory Betts should bat 2nd and JD 4th.

Well, it squeezes Sale or Porcello out.

I doubt they stay under after just resetting this year, but stranger things have happened.

A 4 year deal to Eovaldi or Kimbrel really puts the squeeze on the budgets for a 2020 or 2021 luxury tax reset. We'd either have to trade the one or both we sign or say good bye to one of our younger stars coming into free agency. I wish I knew, if Henry has the resetting of the luxury tax already mapped out, and if so, what year the reset is scheduled for.

I think Bogey really came into his own this year and is ready for a step up to a higher demanding line-up slot. His better power and speed/base running skills, to me, makes him a better 3 slot hitter than Pedey. Batting Pedey 6th or 7th lengthens the line-up, too, especially if he can maintain a .365 OBP.

I don't think we reset in 2020. I think we look at 2021 to do it. Your 2020 numbers miss a few things. $15M for player benefits Arb raises will be on top of this year's arb raises, which will be way more than $20M from the 2018 contract numbers. You mention we will need 1B, DH and SS, but what about replacing Sale & Porcello? Here's how I look at 2020: Luxury tax dollars 31 Price 24 Betts (last of 3 arbs) 14 JBJ (last of 4 arbs) 14 Pedey 12 ERod (3 of 4 arbs) 6 Vaz 6 Wright (last of 3 arbs) 5 Barnes (2nd of 3 arbs) 5 Beni (1st of 3 arbs) 3 Hembree (2nd or 3 arbs) 3 Workman (last of 3 arbs) That's $123M for 11 players. We need 14 more at the ML level and 15 to fill out the 40 man. At minimum cost, that's $145M in salaries plus $15M player benefits= $160M. That's with replacement level players in all open slots. That leaves $48M to upgrade some of those 14 slots with better players. Devers, Johnson, Velazquez, Brasier, Poyner, Lin and maybe a couple others could do nicely, but replacing Sale, Porcello, Eovaldi, JD, Bogey, Moreland, Pearce, Nunez, Holt & Thornburg while staying under the luxury tax is frightening. I don't see it happening until 2021, and if we keep many of the players listed above at more than a 1 year deal, and we want to reset in 2021, then bye-bye to Betts & JBJ.

If we could cover 3B and 1B with Devers, Chavis, Dalbec (Ockimey.Travis) by 2020, we'd save $13M on the Moreland & Pearce deals. That might be doable. We have nobody in the works to take over for JBJ or Bogey. Chatham is a long shot. It goes without saying nobody can replace Betts. Asking for our system to come up with a solid SP'er after over a decade of false hopes, is beyond wishful thinking. With Eovaldi a FA this winter and Porcello & Sale next winter, it's hard to imagine any other way of finding capable replacements any other way than by signings or re-signings. It's all about what the budget will be in 2020 and 2021, and if a reset of the luxury tax is going to happen by 2021.

I agree, the idea is a long shot. Maybe a third team might need to be involved- making it even more difficult. Maybe a team that likes Swihart and his 4 arb years remaining and has a big need at catcher will be willing to trade a better starter than Johnson for both Johnson and Swihart. Maybe the SP'er is making $2-5M a year, and that's a lot for this team, but not for us.

Agreed, Ideally, we sign Eovaldi and Johnson offers very nice depth as a 6/7 starter with HV and maybe Wright, if healthy.

It may very well come down to keeping Betts or Bogey & JBJ combined. Both choices will hurt, and we're not even talking about Sale & Porcello.

I want JD batting 4th. I'd be okay with a .370 OBP Pedey up 3rd, but I like Bogey more. He's improving and has more speed.