moonslav59

It could really mess with the hitters timing, even beyond their AB (or two) vs Wright.

If you want to win, yes. This is the current range: 1's: 1.70-3.31 2's: 3.31-3.77 3's: 3.78-4.21 4's: 4.25-4.70 5's: 4.71-5.77 This is probably what you need to have a good chance at a ring: 1: 2.50-3.00 2: 3.00- 3.50 3: 3.40-3.90 4: 3.70-4.10 5: 4.00-4.50

Maybe an ace could be... ACE: 180+ IP & 3.50 ERA (Last year, 20 met this criteria) #2: 160+ IP & 4.00 ERA (Last year 23 met this but not ace criteria) #3: 140+ IP & 4.50 ERA (Last year 26 met this criteria but not the higher ones) 88 pitchers had 140+ IP #4: 120+ IP & 4.80 ERA (Last year 18 pitchers met this criteria) 106 pitchers has 120+ IP #5: 100+ IP & 5.00 ERA (Last year 22 pitcher met this criteria) 112 out of 128 pitchers met one of these criteria. To get to a sample size of 150 (30 teams x 5 starters, we have to drop the IP to about 80 IP (145 last year). That shows just how important IP'd are. Only 32 pitchers had 180+ IP last year (13 with 200+). If you go strictly by groups of 30 to determine #1, 2, 3 , and 5's, this would be the ERA cut-offs at 70+ IP (155 pitchers) in 2018: 1's: 1.70-3.31 2's: 3.31-3.77 3's: 3.78-4.21 4's: 4.25-4.70 5's: 4.71-5.77

Quality starts should be changed to something like this: 5+ IP 2 or less runs 6.1+ IP 3 runs or less 8+ IP 4 runs or less If letting up 3 runs in 6 IP- a 4.50 ERA, why isn't 4 runs in 8 IP a quality start? At least that should be added. I get the 5 IP puts a strain on your pen, but 2 runs in 5 IP is an ERA of 3.60, which is so much better than 4.50 that it makes up for the 1 IP less.

How does it work on his pay? Do we need to DFA him before opening day to avoid owing him his money? I still think we trade him for a "non-descript minor leaguer" maybe slightly better.

Pomeranz was a top 5 starter to start 2018. Our preseason top 5 and 2018 GS'd 27 Sale 30 Price 33 Porcello 11 Pomeranz 23 ERod Total: 124 4 Wright (6th starter Total: 128 from our top 6 starters on opening day. Yankees 32 Severino 27 Tanaka 23 Gray 29 Sabathia 6 Montgomery Total: 117 11 German (6th starter) 128 from top 6.

That's very deceptive. Pom was clearly in our top 5 last spring. Wright was our 6th starter. You guys have Paxton, instead of Lynn and Gray.

I'd add Dalbec to the maybe list. Lin, Travis & Poyner are still listed on soxprospects.com, but are they still considered official prospects?

IMO, our best hope is striking gold with an international FA signing or two. The sudden death or Daniel Flores hurt our farm a lot. Our biggest bonuses of late have been: $1.6M Danny Diaz $1.4M Antoni Flores $1.15M Eduardo Lopez 2011-2015 $31.5M Y Moncada (+ a hefty 100% tax) $5.4M R Castillo (+ a hefty contract) $4M D Hinojosa $2.1M T-W Lin $1.8M Anderson Espinoza $1.5M Rafael Devers $1.5M C. Acosta $900K Raymond Flores $800K M Margot

Thanks for the links. 154 different players were selected for varying top 100 lists. Not surprising, since once you get to #60 or 70, it's pretty much a crap shoot.

It's been this way for a while. I guess there are no aces anymore.

If Pedey can give us 100 solid games and be ready for the playoffs, it could be a huge boost. Our 2B was pretty crappy last year. 22nd in WAR 17th UZR/150 (thanks, in part to Kinsler) We can hope Pedey can improve on our 2B OPS of .658 and the defense from 2018.

I'm not surprised by our #30, and I hope those who thought we could rebuild the farm quickly realize just how hard it is, but I didn't expect the Yanks to be above 18th or 20th. I'm still not convinced. All I ever hear is you can't count on far away prospects.

Assuming good health, I guess they could DH him when JD rests or is in the OF, but Pearce may be pushing for more PAs through that same route.

You'd be close but wrong.

I like the idea of using roughly the top 30 pitchers as the criteria for considering someone as an "ace". There are, in theory, 150 slots in MLB's 30 team rotations. Being in the top 20% makes you part of the conversation. Porcello would clearly be the best pitcher on several teams right now. Does that make him an ace? I wouldn't go that far, because then any pitcher that is better than the worst #1 pitcher on a given team could be called the ace of that team, if he was traded there. I know the criteria is hotly debated, but being 18th in WAR is pretty impressive. 24th in WHIP adds to the argument that Porcello is at least close to an ace. Personally, I'd call him a decent #2 or a solid #3. I'd call Sale the best of the #1's. The ace of aces. I'd call Price a decent ace or a solid #2. Eovaldi can be a #2, if healthy. ERod may someday be a #1 or 2, but I'd call him a decnt #3 right now. Severino is a true ace. Paxton could be an ace, if he ever gets near 200 IP. He's a 2, now. Happ has pitched like a solid #2 over the last 3 years. Tanaka is hard to call. I'd say decent #2 or solid #3. CC is on his way out, but he's likely a good 4.

If the top 30 starters in MLB are called "an ace," then in the last 3 years combined, Porcello places... 18th in WAR 24th in WHIP 41st in ERA-

He would be a nice, cost-effective signing next winter.

soxprospects.com... With Dustin Pedroia coming back from injury, second base is one of the few starting positions that is a question mark for the Red Sox. Chavis confirmed to Christopher Smith of Masslive.com that he has been working out at second base. Chavis also revealed that he is down 14 pounds from last year, and the increased mobility will help him if he does have to play the middle infield. http://news.soxprospects.com/2019/02/fort-report-pitchers-and-catchers.html

That was my point. His return was like coming out of ST'ing- only with higher velocity. Did you expect peak velocity immediately upon his return? (Yes, there is reason for concern- same with the health of Paxton, CC and several SP'er in MLB.)

They were up by 5 with 6 to go, but yes, the Yanks had a chance until near the end of the season.

No, but 15 innings shows he was not unable to pitch. He's had the whole winter off. The tales spun by Jacko on his low velocity upon his return were shown to be a higher velocity than his first 6 games of 2018- an expected lower number than his norm but not alarming. Yes, it was concerning he was skipped over that start in the WS, but Price was doing very well, and he asked to be given the ball after seeing what Eovaldi did for the team.

Steamer Projections for 2019 WAR by SP'ers: 1. Sale 6.5 6. Severino 4.5 10. Paxton 4.0 24. Price 3.1 25. Happ 2.8 29. Eovaldi 2.7 34. Tanaka 2.6 42. Porcello 2.5 70. ERod 1.9 98. CC 1.3 AL Rankings with everyone at 32 starts and 200 IP: 1. Sale 6.4 2. Paxton 4.7 4. Severino 4.7 13. Tanaka 3.5 14. Eovaldi 3.3 15. Price 3.2 18. Happ 3.0 21. Porcello 2.8 25. ERod 2.7 37. CC 1.9

What do they say about the rotations?

At what position will the Sox be likely to see the biggest shift in player change in games started from 2018 to 2019- not counting pitching roles? Catcher 78 Leon 66 Vazquez 14 Swihart (If Vaz stays healthy, I could see this: Vaz 100, Leon 50, Swihart 12. +34 Vaz/ -28 Leon) First Base 103 Moreland 25 Pearce 25 HRam 5 Swihart 3 Holt/ 1 Travis (I could see this: 90 Moreland, 66 Pearce, 6 Swihart. +41 Pearce) Second Base 70 Nunez 49 Holt 35 Kinsler 3 Phillips/3 Pedroia/2 Lin (If Pedey is healthy, this would be the winner, maybe something like this: 130 Pedey, 16 Nunez, 16 Holt. If not, maybe this: Nunez 80, Holt 80, Lin 2. Holt +36) Third Base 113 Devers 41 Nunez 4 Holt/2 Phillips/1 Swihart (This could be the winner: Devers 152, Nunez 10. +39 Devers) SS 134 Bogaerts 19 Holt 9 Lin (Barring injury, not much change here: Bogey 152, Holt 5, Lin 5. +18 Bogey) Left Field 123 Beni 32 JD 3 Travis/3 Holt/1 Swihart (Little change: Beni 130, JD 32. +7 Beni) Center Field 129 JBJ 19 Beni 13 Betts 1 Lin (Some change: JBJ 142, Beni 12, Betts 8. JBJ +13) Right Field 115 Betts 25 JD 10 Swihart 8 JBJ 4 Holt (Maybe this: Betts 144, JD 18. +29 Betts) Total OF: 142 Beni 137 JBJ 128 Betts 57 JD 11 Swihart/ 7 Holt/ 3 Travis/ 1 Lin 2019: (Doesn't match with my above projectsions) 152 Beni 152 Betts 142 JBJ 40 JD Your thoughts? +??? Pedey +41 Pearce 1B +39 Devers 3B +36 Holt 2b (assuming no Pedey) +34 Vaz C +24 Betts OF +18 Bogey SS +10 Beni OF -31 Nunez 3B -28 Leon C -17 JD OF Assuming good general health by all.