moonslav59

Trading for a closer is not a reasonable alternative? Striking gold like we did with the 2018 Eovaldi is not a possibility? We even had two decent RP'ers in our own system we never knew we had: Beeks and Buttrey. Is there no chance we have one like them, now? I realize the odds are long on the last point, and getting lucky by trade is not easy, but the one thing DD has been very good at is finding gems in mid season trades. He hasn't really had a Gagne moment. I'm trying to stay optimistic, but it isn't easy. The next 3 weeks will be telling.

There is a chance a 2 hour 15 minute, highly offensive game can capture kids hearts. I think that is the gamble we are headed towards.

We don't have a "MIggy contract". We still have some solid, low-cost players like Devers, Beni, ERod & maybe Chavis. Many feel we underpaid Bogey & Sale. Many of our big contracts are up in 1-3 years. It's not quite as bad as Detroit or Fla, but there are certainly big financial and farm system issues to deal with that have near impossible ways to fix in today's systems. I agree with your mediocrity position. Never getting any top draft picks by having a real "cliff" year or two makes it almost impossible to ever rebuild the farm to decency, let alone one of the best like we had back in the early to mid 2000's and the Betts-Bogey-Bradley era. On the bright side, does it really look like major losses, based on how these guys are doing this year and the fact that we are still in the playoff race, to lose: Porcello Moreland Pearce Nunez Holt Thornburg I'm not so sure 2020is the year we suffer greatly. We may even end up trading JBJ and bringing in a low-cost, defensive CF'er that hits a consistent .690-.720 and hardly miss a beat. (Maybe?) We may see Pedey retire and save us some bucks, but that is unlikely. If JD leaves, we can reset, but we won't be true contenders without him, and we won't be a last place team either and be able to draft the next Beni with the 7th pick. Only Sale and Bogey are under contract until 2023. Only Eovaldi, Price and Vaz until 2022. We have the flexibility to totally reset and be bad for one year, if we want. I guess Sale could become our "Miggy," but I still have faith. I have no faith our farm can be rebuilt to top 10 or even 15 without a firesale at some point in the next 2 years. If we match that up with a one time budget reset and one "bad year" we may be able to get back to the top in a short time. It will take at least a couple big decisions by Henry & DD.

I was talking about 2019. We may only need to find a guy like the 2018 Eovaldi (for Beeks) to make a strong run this year. While I admit we got a bit lucky with Nate's playoff performance, we may not have to empty the farm to get much better at the deadline. I have been one to recognize the trouble we will be in starting in 2020 or 2021, even if we are spending up to the second limit each of those years. No convincing needed here.

...then got career years out of everything they touched to win it in 2013... Urban myth. Some had better years than 2012 and 2014, but very few had "career years."

I don't know when, but I discussed the moves on the Realistic thread. We also have out-of-options Pearce and Johnson to deal with.

You keep picking probable sellers as destinations for Porcello.

The way Porcello has pitched his last 3 games, he'd take the QO. The way he pitched the 12 games before that, he may not. My point was the 4th round pick might be a better prospect than what we'd get by trading him, if he's still doing poorly by the deadline.

So, you are totally giving up on this year? Do you really think the return on a Porcello trade will make a difference in 2020 or beyond? I get your point about getting nothing, but next to nothing while zeroing our 2019 chances makes little sense to me.

I was a solo day trader for about 3 years and did well. I doubt it has much to do with valuing ML talent or trade ideas.

Despite doing surprisingly well this year, I predict the Reds will be sellers. If they decide to buy, I doubt it will be for an expensive rental.

Bring it on! 2020 Baby!

1. Porcello's playoffs were not without incidents. He did let up 6 ERs in 15.1 IP (3.52), which is good, especially for him, but not so great some GM is pining for him. 2. Yes, his last 3 games have been horrible, but I doubt even a few GM base value on just the recent 3 game sample size. 12.75 ERA last 3 games 3.20 ERA in his previous 10 starts (Maybe he has more value than some think he has, even at his $9M price tag.) 3. Only a contender shut out on better SP'ers would trade for Porcello, and it would be for a prospect. 4. The Quality Offer option may still be on the table, if Rick turns things around. If he refuses, we get a draft pick, which may be better than the prospect we may get in trade. 5. Most likely, we wait another 18-19 days and make the choice then.

If we try to totally reset, we will have a step down, but if not, I agree, we should be hanging around the WC level.

I'm thinking DD and Henry do not want the "cliff" to be last place finishes, so they will not sacrifice too much of 2020 or beyond to improve our odds this year. DD may try to find a similar deal as the 2018 Eovaldi deal in hopes or repeating the magic withou giving up too much.

We will get nothing for Porcello in trade. He's owed about $9M. I guess, if you've totally given up on the reigning champs, trading JD makes some sense, but my guess is he comes back next year.

True. I agree on the probable cause of his shoulder issues. I'm not talking about that freakish stretch as his "norm". We can beat the May 1st date to death, but he was fine from May 1st to May 30th (5 GS) 2.23 ERA He has NOT been fine since, and the sample size is larger than the May one. He's been okay but far from his "norm" after May 24th. 3.83 ERA in 7 GS'd and 5.96 his last 4 starts. As for the bad W-L record, yes run support has been exceedingly low. To see our 5th starters combine for a winning record & us having a 6-12 record in Sale starts baffles my mind. That being said, he's only had 3 games where he clearly deserved to win. 4/2 lost 1-0 5/14 lost 5-4 (7 IP 2 ER) 6/10 lost 4-3 (7 IP 0 ER & 1 Run) Realistically, we should/could be 9-9 in his starts.

From his previous April norms? Maybe "near," but still lower. His 2018 April velocity was much lower than his norm and slightly lower than his previous April norms. You keep acting like I'm doubting his velocity was low in April or than the extra rest was a reason for this. Nothing is farther than the truth. https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=10603&position=P&pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=game&start=2013&end=2019&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax= My point was that Sale's 2019 post April velocity is close to his velocity of April 2018 NOT the rest of 2018 or his norms from previous seasons. I'd have expected better with all the rest. He had one freakish game this year, where his velocity spiked, and it was his 4th start of the year (still in April). The rest of his season has been fully below norms.

Why now? Porcello just had 3 horrible starts. We have 3 weeks before the deadline. There is no rush to trade anyone. Selling low is foolish. There may be a rush to trade FOR someone.

Sounds pointless but carry on....

LOL. Not sure what the point you are making. His velocity is still down, whether I have a reason or not. I said "last April," meaning 2018 April. Sale's 2019 June-July velocity is about the same as (or less than) April 2018- which is significantly lower than his norm. Try to follow along. When someone posts something worth poking holes in, I'll do it. Just because I have no better theory doesn't mean I can't point out your falsities or speculative meanderings. The point that Sale is not pitching well over the last 3-5 starts is a separate issue from restgate, except that it makes me wonder why he seems weak now, when all the rest and pampering should have made him stronger at this point in the season. You can cling to his May and claim he is pitching near his norm, but just about everyone else have major concerns about his effectiveness. Here are the charts, again: https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=10603&position=P&pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2018&end=2019&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=

Now that the Thornburg issue has been solved, here's a look at our roster construction choices to be made. First, let's look at the rosters (25 and 40 man) before any trade or acquisitions are made. Current 25 Man Roster (Red= has options remaining) 13 Pitchers SP: Sale, Price, ERod, Porcello & Velazquez RP: Workman, Hembree, Barnes, Brasier, Taylor, Wright, Brewer, Walden 2 Catchers Vaz & Leon 1 First base Chavis 2 Second base Holt & Hernandez 1 Short stop Bogaerts 2 Third base Devers & Nunez 1 LF Benintendi 1 CF Bradley 1 RF Betts 1 DH Martinez 60 Day IL: SP: Eovaldi (due back soon) 2B: Pedroia (may never play again) 10 Day IL: SP/RP: Johnson 1B: Moreland & Pearce Others on the 40 Man Roster that have or may play this season: SP: Weber, Reyes RP: Poyner, Lakins, Shawaryn, DHernandez, J Smith, Kelley 1B: Travis, Curletta IF/OF: Lin We do not really have a 40 man roster crunch, as we'd barely notice losing Curletta, Kelley, D Reyes and maybe even Weber, Shawaryn or Smith. Here's my view of what we do when these players come off the IL: Eovaldi to closer: demote Walden to AAA. Moreland to 1B (Chavis to 2B): trade or DFA Nunez (likely will demote Marco) Johnson to 5th starter: demote Velazquez to AAA. Pearce to 1B/DH: trade or DFA Pearce or Nunez (or demote Hernandez or Taylor/Brewer by going with 12 pitchers) Personally, if everyone was healthy, I'd trade Pearce and Nunez along with whatever cash was needed for basically nothing. I'd keep Marco, Holt, Chavis & Moreland as right-side IF'ers. This would be the "healthy" 25 Man Roster Sale, Price, ERod, Porcello, Johnson Eovaldi, Workman, Hembree, Barnes, Brasier, Wright, Brewer, Taylor Vazquez & Leon Moreland & Chavis Holt & Hernandez Bogaerts Devers Benintendi Bradley Betts Martinez Gone: Pearce & Nunez- maybe keep 1, if we want to go with 12 pitchers (Taylor or Brewer to AAA) Now, to trade possibilities: Most likely, we will trade for a pitcher. It looks like SP'er is the first priority, unless Eovaldi struggles with his health or performance as the closer. Taylor or Brewer would likely be demoted to make room. Without Nunez on the roster, I doubt we'd demote Hernandez. Maybe the best idea would be to try and include Johnson in any trade for a SP'er, since he is out of options and would squeeze the pen out of a better pitcher. If we trade for a RP'er, we may look to trade a current pen piece to make room- not that demoting Taylor or Brewer would be the end of the world. Your thoughts are welcome.

I still disgaree. totally, and I don't think the shift is in any way ruining or extending the games.

Now that Sale is warmed up, his velocity is as low as it was last April. He's not back to his velocity norm or even close. He is inconsistent and being pampered.

Only that we'll have an open roster slot.