moonslav59

I hope it's a thick wool hat!

Post season IP 30 Kershaw 26 Price 24 Buehler 22 Eovaldi 19 Ryu 17 Verlander 17 Hill 16 Porcello 15 Sale 14 Miley 13 Cole 10 ERod & Keuchel

It's not fudging anymore than you choosing the sample size that fits your position better. I'm not saying my sample size is a better way to place value or project future value, but it is just as valid as yours and is not fudged. One could argue the playoff numbers vs the very best in baseball and the most recent of all sample sizes should be factored in.

What if we added the 2018 post season numbers to the second half numbers? IP pitcher ERA 26.o Price 3.46 22.1 Eovaldi 1.61 15.1 Porcello 3.52 15.1 Sale 4.11 10.0 ERod 6.00 7.0 Severino 7.71 5.0 Tanaka 1.80 3.0 CC Sab 9.00 2.0 Happ 22.50

Why? Because Jack said all of your 2-5 starters were better than ours based on 2018 WAR. It's not my way of valuing starters, but his.

Why choose just 2018? Could it be because it supports your position? Why not choose last 2-3 years or second half 2018? Here's 2nd half 2018: WAR 2.1 Tanaka 1.5 Severino 1.3 CC 1.1 Happ 0.8 Paxton 1.6 Eovaldi 1.5 Sale 1.5 Price 0.7 Porcello 0.3 ERod Sale = Severino Price> Paxton Tanaka > Porcello Eovaldi > Happ CC > ERod

2nd half Yankee Starter Numbers: ERA Pitcher WHIP 5.57 Severino 1.43 3.95 Paxton 1.12 (SEA) 3.91 CC Sab 1.40 2.85 Tanaka 1.13 2.69 Happ 1.05 Red Sox 1.55 Sale 0.69 2.25 Price 0.97 3.22 Eovaldi 1.27 4.54 Porcello 1.07 5.79 ERod 1.55

I agree. It over inflates everybody's "value" due to big money being spent on negative WAR guys being a major factor in the equation.

Actually, it makes more sense by including the dead money, because it counts all the money spent for such little return, thereby inflating the dollars value per WAR. To me, it's not a useful practice. It's basically saying all players are worth what some dumb GMs pay for aged and declining players post signing performances.

It's hard to know which GM, if any, wants Swihart, and if one or more do want him, they may be waiting (hoping) we just DFA him at some point, and they can get him for free. If it was me, assuming we do not want to go with 3 catchers, I'd trade him for the best we can get, even if I think he's better than what we get back. Get it over with. DFA him, if nobody wants him. (I'm okay with going with 3 catchers, since Swihart offers some depth at other positions, and Pedey's health is highly questionable.)

Oh, so now it's about just last year's stats. A while ago, you were saying we can't count on Betts and JD to have equal or better years. I guess last year only counts when it's in your favor. Also, I rarely go by just last year's numbers, but I can see why you'd want to for the rotation rather than the offense. Paxton had his career high IP and best WHIP last year. He's sure to be great in 2019. Happ has blown away his earlier career numbers with his very fine ages 32-35 four year stretch. He has to be great again in 2019. CC Sabathia has seen his ERA go down for 3 straight years. He turns 39 this year, but it's a lock he keeps getting better in 2019. Tanaka's 2018 ERA was a run better than 2017. It's a lock he repeats 2018 not 2017 in 2019! Severino's down second half of 2018 must be swept under the carpet. Let's just say, he must have been tipping his pitches. He'll be the Cy Young winner in 2019! Let's forget about Price finding himself, and Eovaldi becoming a beast. We can only look at their total 2018 season as an indicator of what 2019 will be. Forget how they ended 2018. Except for Sale, of course. We have to just look at his end of the season and forget the beginning. Forget ERod had his best year. Chalk Porcello up for another 4.28 ERA not 3.15. Our 5 in 2018 with the Sox ERA Pitcher WHIP 2.11 Sale 0.861 3.22 Eovaldi 1.27 3.58 Price 1.14 3.79 ERod 1.27 4.28 Porcello 1.78 with Yanks 2.69 Happ 1.05 (Paxton) 3.39 Severino 1.14 3.65 CC Sab 1.31 3.75 Tanaka 1.13 Yankee starters last year 4.05/1.259 Red Sox starters in 2018 3.77/1.213 Yes, you gained Paxton and a full year of Happ, but we gained a full year of Eovaldi and ERod and maybe Sale and lost Pom (6.31/1.82 in 11 GS) The Yanks lost ... 4.90 Gray 1.49 4.14 Lynn 1.35 (German? 5.57/1.33) I like our 5 just fine. I also like our 6-8 starters. Let the games begin.

Isn't the dollar conversion is based on what FAs got paid as a relation to their recent WAR before signing and not on what they did after the signing?

Did you notice his first game back after the second stint he threw harder than opening day? In fact, he threw harder than his first 7 games of 2018. His lowest velocity games in 2018 were... start 27th start (last start) 4th start 2nd start 26th start 3rd start 6th start 7th start 25th start 1st start 13th start 5th start 12th start 11th,18th start & 24th start (first start after 2nd DL) It doesn't look as hopeless as you make it out to be. The most concerning part is that his velocity went down every one of his last 3 starts of the regular season, but that's not much different from the start of the season. Start of season: 95>92>93>91>96>93>93 Return after first DL (short) 97 Return after 2nd DL (longer) 96>94>93>90 https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=10603&position=P&pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2016&end=2018&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=

One assumes both DL stints were for the same injury, so the throwing strong after the first stint kin of shows there was no major issue. Now, if his second stint was the result of a worsening of the original issue, then maybe there will be lasting effects. Nobody really knows for sure- not even his doctors, but I'm trusting Sale when he says all is good.

Yes, and so it is not really of much use.

Wright's our 6th starter not our #2. Yes, I am concerned about him. Sale went out once and came back throwing very hard, then he went out again. When he returned his velocity was down. but he was out for a long time and the sample size was kind of small upon his return. Yes, I am concerned about him, too. I'm concerned about Price and Eovaldi, too, but I think Price has shown signs he has reinvented himself as a pitcher not a thrower. He could actually do better this year than last. My point was both teams have health concerns, but you seem to act like ours will all turn out badly and yours will turn out better. You may end up being right, but health histories and age curves make me think we have a better chance of better health and rotation performance in 2019 than the Yanks do. I think most projection services do and will agree that our rotation is better.

...and he was consistent!

Chris on Chris Video

While true, we also have no idea about Paxton's back flaring up again or not. If he was a Red Sox, you'd be calling him a walking time bomb. Paxton missed five weeks -- three with back inflammation and two after a line drive nailed his left forearm. He missed two months in 2017 (forearm strain, pectoral strain); two weeks in 2016 (line drive to the elbow); nearly four months in 2015 (left finger tendon strain); and four months in 2014 (lat strain).

Many starters are inconsistent, too.

No, it's not wishing. The age curve often has outlier seasons, so I expect the two I mentioned to fall back to the curve.

Fair enough on Paxton. I guess I just don't put as much weight on just last year's production level. I like Happ. He's good, but he's due to decline, despite not doing so last year, when his age indicated he probably should have. I've been waiting for CC to drop, but it hasn't happened. Surely, he could have another good year in him, but to me, the odds are he gets worse. Price and Porcello are not at the ages where you'd expect a significant decline. Eovaldi is a question mark much like Paxton is. If they both pitch to their ability and put up 200 innings, it would be a big boost. Paxton has a better record and numbers, but I think Eovaldi might surprise people this year. Did I forget to mention how happy I am we have.. Chris Freakin' Sale!

Wright almost made the playoff roster. He was scratched at the last minute. Maybe, just maybe, it's not as bad as it seems. I have never said Johnson and Velazquez were great, but they are our 7th and 8th starters. They are "good" for those roles. You said they were "not good." How many teams have better 7th and 8th starters?

Records in starts... 3-1 Wright 9-4 Johnson 5-3 Velazquez 6-6 Eovaldi 0-2 Beeks & Cuevas combined 23-14 .622

Wright is our 6th starter. How many teams have better 7th and 8th starters than Johnson & Velazquez. Together, the team went 14-7 in their starts. "Not good depth" should be a relative term.