moonslav59

I agree, but let that start after 2019... LOL.

I hope to God we don't need Johnson going 200 IP next year. I like him as a complimentary piece, but he is not the prospect gem some are looking to discover or create out of thin air.

Would you trade Moreland, if it meant we could then afford to sign Pearce to $16M/2?

I'm not "agonizing" over it, like Dewey implied, but it does concern me. Hey, we got a ring and might again next year; I'm in heaven. The small part of me worry about 2020 or 2021 in way down my list of things I think about.

Yes, indeed.

I think the Yanks will go way over the luxury tax limit and maybe close to $40M over. They re-set this year partially for this FA class.

If our farm can keep producing prospects good enough for other GMs to trade the Eovaldi's, Pearce's and Nunez's of the league every summer, then I guess one could claim our system is bearing fruit, but I'm thinking more in terms of getting an infusion of young talent that is at pre-arb costs, so we can balance out the big contracts we will need to give our soon-to-be free agents.

It's debatable his defense covers his .758 OPS, but I wouldn't say he was a big (or even small) negative overall.

I guess the TB GM loves ugly fruit.

He ended up doing about what I expected... subpar performance offensively from a 1Bman. This is the second year he got hurt, and with no HRam around anymore, we went out and got Pearce. That's probably the best thing about the Moreland signing. He worked out okay, but I'd rather have his $5.5M for 2019 to apply towards signing Pearce or the like.

I hated the Moreland signing, then it looked good, then okay, then maybe not so good, then okay again. I'd rather have Pearce over Moreland for 2019, if I had to choose just one, despite Pearce being on the wrong side of a platoon. I don't think us having Moreland put any scare into JD and his contract negotiations.

Brasier was signed as a free agent. He was playing in Japan before. He was not a prospect and is 31. Velazquez was signed as an international FA and turns 30 in a few days. He also pitched for us last year, beginning in May. He's not my idea of a prospect, but maybe he was officially. Johnson turns 28 in less than a month. He pitched a little for us in 2015, and then he had some health and emotional issues. He scattered some playing time in 2017 across 4 different months. I don't really consider him a prospect, but he did give us something from the farm. Maybe "no fruit" is not a good way to put it, but this kind of prospect infusion is not what we will need in the next few years. To keep most of our stars, we will need to balance the roster (and budget) with some low cost players that are not drags on the team. We need some farm players who can give us some jolts- like Devers and Beni did last year. I'm not seeing that level of prospect in sight right now, but I will continue to hope one or two step it up next year. I hoped for the same thing this year, but didn't really see it. Some took some steps up, but nobody grabbed national attention.

What 2018 pitching prospect fruit was plucked? Am I missing something? 2018 gave us nothing from the farm. 2019 might give us Chavis and Quiroz.

You don't think we will try to reset the luxury tax in 2-3 years? If we don't, Henry will be facing mega taxes at multiplied rates and possible lowering of draft picks as well. I'd love to be wrong on this, but I'm thinking we try to reset after 2020. It could happen after next year, but I think we shoot for 2 more ring opportunities, before the spending will be checked for at least a year. One big issue is that Betts & JBJ reach free agency in a winter that might be chosen as the "re-set winter," so that would be very difficult, unless we try not to sign anybody to big money for more than 2 years this winter. I hope I'm wrong, but I also do not want to hear people telling me my team's owner bought rings. I'm not sure Henry wants to be viewed that way either. BTW, I don't think anyone that doesn't think we are going to hit a wall (financially or otherwise) in 2-3 years is being "unrealistic," and in light of Henry spending (this year) like he never has before, maybe it's me being unrealistic to think Henry won't do whatever it takes to remain competitive for as long as he is the owner, but until I see it happen, I'm thinking we will reset after 2020. A club exceeding the Competitive Balance Tax threshold for the first time must pay a 20 percent tax on all overages. A club exceeding the threshold for a second consecutive season will see that figure rise to 30 percent, and three or more straight seasons of exceeding the threshold comes with a 50 percent luxury tax. If a club dips below the luxury tax threshold for a season, the penalty level is reset. So, a club that exceeds the threshold for two straight seasons but then drops below that level would be back at 20 percent the next time it exceeds the threshold. Clubs that exceed the threshold by $20 million to $40 million are also subject to a 12 percent surtax. Meanwhile, those who exceed it by more than $40 million are taxed at a 42.5 percent rate the first time and a 45 percent rate if they exceed it by more than $40 million again the following year(s). Beginning in 2018, clubs that are $40 million or more above the threshold shall have their highest selection in the next Rule 4 Draft moved back 10 places unless the pick falls in the top six. In that case, the team will have its second-highest selection moved back 10 places instead.

I like many of our pen arms going into next year and many others offer a promise of something good, but we need to add at least one solid arm, preferably with some closer experience or a closer "profile." Losing 100+ innings from Kimbrel & Kelly will not be easily made up for.

If the plan is to reset after 2020, no. I wanna keep Betts & JBJ more. If not, yes.

Pinching pennies to reset the luxury tax, yes. Pinching pennies on the grander scale, no.

Good post. I might put RP'er ahead of Pearce on my list for 2 reasons: 1) Losing Kimbrel & Kelly is bigger than losing Pearce. 2) Good 1Bmen are usally easy to acquire mid-season. Plus, we have Chavis, Swihart, Holt and maybe JD who can back up Moreland at 1B to start the season.

Some of Wright's injuries were not arm related, and while the knee is very important to a pitcher, it might be better than arm problems. Depending on how extensive the surgery was, I'm hopeful Wright can help us next year.

True. He's done pretty well on all deals, big and small.

No, he wasn't, and that's why they found other catchers to be Wake's caddy after 2000, and VTek went on to become one of the best defensive catchers I have ever seen, despite a weak throwing arm.

Not the two years VTek led the league in PBs. Mirabelli wasn't even on the team. 1999 Wake had these PAs against with these catchers: 579 with VTek 56 others 2000 495 w VTek 211 w Hatteberg

He's actually done better with his non-splash deals: Eovaldi, Pearce, Brasier, and last year's Nunez, Fister & Boyer. He rarely misses on these choices.

While I agree, it may be presumptuous to expect his "boom or bust" players to have risen quickly at this point in their careers. The problem is, we will need some sort of youth infusion by 2020 or 2021 at the latest, and nobody really jumps out as being that guy. Sure, we have guys like Feltman and Groome, but they seem like long shots. We could have used a nice rookie for 2019 as well, maybe a 1Bman, 2Bman, 4th OF'er, pen arm, 5th starter...

I don't see the Yanks getting Machado. He wants to play SS, and the Phillies have gobs of cash. I think the Yanks get Harper and pitching.