moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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Me, too. I'm not projecting better than 108 wins, but with so many of our players on the rise towards prime or in the meat of their prime, I think we could win 105 games and still be a better team than the 2018 team (or at least the same).
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Many great hitters had high K rates. He walks enough for it to not be a major issue. Sox K% last year 27.5% Swihart 26.0% Leon 25.6% JBJ 24.7% Devers 22.5% JD 22.2% Moreland 19.9% Holt How about hard hit%? 44.9% JD 44.5% Betts 41.1% JBJ 37.9% Bogey 34.9% Moreland 34.4% Devers 33.3% Pearce 29.6% Swihart 29.2% Holt 28.0% Beni 27.5% Vaz 27.2% Nunez 26.4% Leon He's so damn young, I'm not sure why only the K rate should matter. He's a free swinger. He reminds me of Vlad Guerrero or Adrian Beltre at the plate.
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All significantly higher than 2018's OPS.
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I can't find a link to support my point, but I thought I read it somewhere, and Vaz always looks to the dug out for a long time between pitches. I'm not 100% positive.
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We need teams like the Padres to increase our chances of winning and winning.
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Exactly! "Shown little?" The guy has been a Yankee killer. He has 31 HRs and 96 RBIs in his very first 730 PAs in MLB at a super young age playing against pitchers many years older than him. Not many good to great players started out worse than this. BR lists players with similar batting numbers at age 21- here are a few of them: Ron Santo Juan Gonzalez Cal Ripken Willie Mays Jose Canseco Larry Parish Of course, Devers could underachieve or flame out, but I see more signs he busts out and becomes a great hitter.
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Click the link, schroll down to Advanced. At the bottom is Steamers 2019 projection of an .805 OPS. https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=17350&position=3B
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Yes, but the 100 best doctors could say he is 100% healed, and he could experience the same injury or a new (serious) one this season. (knock on wood.)
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We all want Sale back. Possible budget constraints is the only thing that may make it a tough choice. I'd like to extend him, now, but waiting to see how his health looks makes sense, too. However, if he has a great season with 200+ IP, his price tag should go up.
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Clippard signs with the Guardians for $1.75M with $1M in possible incentives.
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I know.
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Petrified! Hosmer sucks, and last year only solidified my opinion. Trade JBJ, Vaz & Johnson for Carrasco next year.
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The team was 18-9 in his starts.
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Maybe, if they trade JBJ & Vaz (to replace Porcello?) , don't re-sign Porcello, Moreland, pearce, Nunez & Holt....
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Look how the injury to Groome dropped him off the charts. Espi is still "in play", but certainly the hopes have dimmed.
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It's about resetting or not. If the plan is not to reset in the next 2 years, then yes, go for Bogey and Sale first and Betts next year. If we are looking to reset after 2019 or 2020, then signing Bogey AND Sale would greatly lessen the chances we can keep Betts. Note: just because we are looking extend Bogey and Sale, we may be thinking if one accepts, we'd not up the offer to the other in hopes of resetting and keeping Betts after 2020.
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Yes, as is the case for most younger players moving towards prime. (999 PAs by Vaz and 672 by Devers) If you really are expecting .731 from Devers and .540 from Vaz, then I can't make any more points, but even that would be better than what their replacements gave us last year. I'm thinking .800 from Devers and .670 from Vaz is not a stretch. Steamer projects: .805 Devers (.805 THE BAT and .787 ATC) .672 Vaz (.659 THE BAT & .637 ATC) These numbers blow Nunez, Leon and Swihart out of the water.
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The 15 minor league players get next to nothing. The pre-arb MLB players make about $600-$800K each. For 2019 & 2020 our pre-arb MLB players might be... Devers Johnson Velazquez Brasier Lin Poyner Lakins Feltman For just 2019 Beni That's 9 for 2019, plus we could add Chavis, Shawaryn, Dalbec or others. We'd basically have to fill these roles: Porcello (#3 starter)- Wright/Johnson/Velazquez? 1B (Pearce/Moreland)- Chavis/Dalbec (Devers from 3B)? Utility (Holt/Nunez)- Swihart, Lin, Chatham, Chavis, Dalbec? Maybe we need 3-4 decent free agents.
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I get that, and I have said my assumptions are no better than those who state Henry will agree to go over by $20M or $40+M indefinitely.
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Yes, but since we reset in 2017 and 2018, there will be an increase in 2019 and 2020- the two years we are talking about with Sale, Bogey and Betts, among others, coming due for their big paydays. 2018: 20% 2019: 30% 2020: 50% That's just for going over the first line. Keeping everyone would certainly put us over the $20M line and likely the $40M line, too.
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You are assuming they will repeat their 2018 numbers in 2019. This is not a valid way to project future output, but if you want to go by that.... .731 Devers .677 Nunez .540 Vaz .511 Leon While the gain might look slight here, I don't think I'm being a homer to believe they can at least give us their career norms (or better) in 2019: .760 Devers .632 Vaz Both would be a significant improvement over their 2018 replacements' numbers.
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$33M Betts $32M Sale $31M Price $24M Bogey $23M JD $14M Pedey $158M for 6 players + $15M player benefits= $173M with 34 more guys to pay. It won't be $300M, but we'd have to be over the max line to keep the rest of the roster good enough to compete (replace Porcello, find a 1Bman, pay for arb raises to JBJ, ERod, Barnes...)
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We had a 5 year window (2015-2019): that's pretty darn long! Maybe we can eek out 2020 by keeping Bogey and Sale, but if we go to reset after 2020- bye bye Betts.
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I filled in the blanks... SP Sale, Price, E Rod, Eovaldi, Wright/Johnson/Velazquez BP Barnes, Brasier, Hembree, Workman, Poyner, Lakins, Feltman CF Beni RF Betts LF JD SS Xander 1B Devers 2B Dustin 1B Chavis 3B Dalbec C Vazquez
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I can't see how we can get under the first luxury tax line with Sale, Bogey, Betts, JD and Price. Where did I go wrong? 2020 Trade JBJ & Vaz for a low cost 5th starter. Do not resign FAs to be Porcello, Nunez, Holt and Thornburg 33 Sale 31 Price ~28M Betts (last arb) ~23M Bogey (re-sign) 22 JDM 17 Eovaldi 14 Pedey $168M in 7 players ~7 ERod (3rd of 4 arbs) ~4 Beni (1st of 3) ~3 Barnes (2 of 3) ~2 Hembree (2 of 3) ~2 Wright (3rd of 3) ~2 Leon (4th of 4) ~2 Swihart (2 of 4) add $22M add $15M player benefits $205M Total for 14 players under contract and projected arbs. The 2020 luxury tax line is $208M. We can argue about going or not going over the first line next year, but my question was how can we keep all these guys AND stay under.
