moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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That's as realistic as anyone can be.
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I agree, but then,,,, There is still spending going on. The Sox will spend the same. The Yanks and Dodgers added salary. Maybe the owners sense the economy is about to collapse. There is a lot of similarities to the late 1920's and many economists are forecasting a recession.
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Can anyone really be proven wrong in the minors?
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lol
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I'd guess... NYY 12-20 BOS 22-30
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RP'ers are different. 1) They sometimes come in with 1 or 2 outs (not so often with Kimbrel). That should automatically lower their ERA;s because the only need to get 1 or 2 outs in the inning. 2) ERA- and ERA+ adjusts the ERA based on other factors. It's still all about runs allowed, but it adjusts for factors out of the pitcher's control. ERA- (fangraphs) 47 Kimbrel 57 Uehara ERA+ (baseball reference) 211 Kimbrel 162 Uehara (I had made a mistake in my earlier ERA+ data.)
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Yes, Koji was terrific and for 7 years. I like ERA- and ERA+ rather than ERA, and Koji has a slight edge there, but ERA is not a great stat for RP'ers.
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Is this like him saying there were no surgeries scheduled?
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If everyone is healthy, here's my list in order of best chance at making the 12 man pitching staff on opening day. (Options remaining will play a factor.) 1. Sale 3 2. Price 2 3. Porcello 0 4. Eovaldi 0 5. Rodriguez 2 6. Barnes 2 7. Wright 0 8. Brasier 2 9. Hembree 0 10. Johnson 0 11. Thornburg 0 12. Workman 0 13. Velazquez 2 14. Poyner 2 15. Walden 1 Brewer 2, DHernandez 3, Lakins 3, J Taylor 3, DReyes 3, Shepherd 2
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He wasn't a closer, so that hurts when comparing, but to me, the numbers that count the most are WHIP or OPS against and K rate/ BB rate (I like K/BB that covers both) show them very close. In my previous comp, I left off the first years of both and took away Uehara's last year. Here are their full career numbers: You said the rest of Koji's career, he was "good," but I think he was much more than good for a long time (7 years). OPS Against .485 Kim (.476 Late & Close) .588 Koji (.566 Late & Close) WHIP 0.890 Koji 0.920 Kim K/BB 7.33 Koji 4.23 Kim K/9 14.7 Kim 10.7 Koji BB/9 1.5 Koji 3.5 Kim ERA+ 211 Kim 162 Koji Post Season WHIP- K/9 0.833- 10.5 1.258- 2.1 Save% 91% Kim (333/372) 84% (95/113) Koji IS% 19% (15/77) 26% (27/105) I think it's closer than it might seem. I have no beef with anyone saying Kimbrel is better, but it's close, and I think Uehara was more than just good outside of 2013.
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Vaz did very well in pitch framing last year, too. Leon was better, but Vaz was top 10 out of the 60 or so listed.
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I get that, but I'm asking if you add value to a catcher who does that more than the average catcher does?
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...and some of these sample sizes are huge.
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Yes, so if fangraphs gives none of this value to the catcher, then could their numbers be misleading?
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He was off the charts in 2013, but he had several excellent years. WHIP- K/BB Uehara (7 nice years, including 1 great one!) 0.96- 11.0 ('10) 0.72- 9.44 ('11) 0.64- 14.3 ('12) 0.57- 11.2 ('13) 0.92- 10.0 ('14) 0.92- 5.22 ('15) 0.96- 5.73 ('16) Kimbrel (8 nice years including 2 great ones) 1.04- 3.97 ('11) 0.65- 8.29 ('12) 0.88- 4.90 ('13) 0.91- 3.65 ('14) 1.05- 3.95 ('15) 1.09- 2.77 ('16) 0.68- 9.00 ('17) 1.00- 3.10 ('18) Koji 7 seasons blows Kimbrel 8 seasons away on K/BB K/BB 8.78 Koji 4.38 Kimbrel WHIP is closer but still clearly in Koji's favor 0.795 Koji 0.908 Kimbrel For reference sake... Mo Rivera from 1999-2012- his best stretch: 0.942 WHIP 4.74 K/BB Let's not shortchange Koji just because his one great year was so fantastic. He had a nice streak before and afterwards: 2010-2012: 0.772- 10.76 2014-2016 0.930-6.79 Amazing numbers without 2013.
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It's hard to build comfort levels with RP'ers you catch only for a few batters scattered over a season. The Sox use personal caddies for most of their starters, so there is ample time to build a relationship.
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Yes, but they don't factor in anything related to CERA, and I don't think they count pitch-framing either.
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Yes, and one problem with CERA is that some use it to compare catchers from different teams- not good. Also, when you have personal caddies like the Sox do, the sample sizes are small or nil for the other catchers. On small sample sizes, yes, they are close to useless, unless one catcher seems to do better than the other(s) for a vast majority of the small sample size pitchers on their team. (Year after year)
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I agree, and he seems best suited to catch 3 of the 5 starters not named Sale or Price-- maybe 100+ games a year.
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I have no evidence to back this up, but I think his pitch blocking skills got worse when he was forced to play more, but yes, his hitting went from bad to horrible. He started playing more when July came around. On June 30th, he had a .706 OPS. He had a .413 OPS afterwards. I know: one season- one small sample size, but he looked beat to me by season's end.
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His demands mean nothing, if nobody comes near them.
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True. My only concern is Leon having to catch everyday, if Vaz goes down. I think he has endurance issues and gets burnt out when having to catch a lot in a short time.
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Maybe because they have a comfort level with their catchers and don't want to risk a comfort-learning curve that lasts longer than hoped for. Maybe they do like Vaz or Leon better than their starting or back-up catcher but are not willing to give up much for that "upgrade." Maybe they think Vaz is overpaid, which would imply my set value is much higher than theirs. I've said I could be wrong. We basically got Leon from the Nats for cash, and he's not really improved since then, so I realize there is plenty of evidence that supports those who feel he is easily replaceable. I like what our catchers do with our staff. I don't think it was a fluke our pen has "over performed" for 2 straight years, that Porcello won a Cy Young, that ERod has come of age (when healthy), that Price has re-invented himself, that Eovaldi just earned a fat contract after a short time with us, and even Sale has done better than ever. I'm fine with being in a minority and am not trying to say anyone who disagrees with me is dumb or uninformed. The know vs the unknown argument is a good one.
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Certainly, DFA'ing is an option, but only if nobody wants him in a trade. Also, how much do we save by DFA'ing him and replacing him with Lin at the minimum ML salary? $910K -$555K = $355K savings Maybe that's helpful, if we are going to try and stay $1 under the $40M line, but it might not matter as much. It also might depend on how much DD & Co value Swihart over Centaro. If one of our catchers gets hurt, we may regret cutting Swihart. (I wouldn't.)
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Some GMs probably think highly of Vaz and Leon, but trading Swihart would probably only net us a single A player with a bit of promise. I'm not suggesting we get anything great for Swihart. I'm thinking he might be a useful throw-in to a bigger trade, or not. If no other GMs value Vaz or Leon, it doesn't change my opinion of them all that much. Sale and Price are very happy with Sale. Porcello and Eovaldi seem happy with Vaz. ERod and most of the pen seem to not care all that much.
