moonslav59

I guess you have more faith in Swihart than I do. To me, he's a big drop off from Leon and Vaz, and if we traded Vaz, he'd probably catch 50-70 games. I can't see Leon lasting much over 100 games. If we traded Leon, maybe we could limit Swihart to 30-40 games, but are we getting a good RP'er for Leon? I think not, so just keep 'em both.

Most people that have played serious baseball know the value catcher defense and pitcher -catcher comfort. Even some who never played can see how important it is. I understand, I may place too much value on catcher intangibles, and I certainly place more value than some here, and I'm fine with that. Sometimes, I feel like I can't win. At times, I'm accused of being too stat geeky enough to understand the nuances or areas of the game not captured by data. Here's an area I feel strongly about with very little to no significant data available to back myself up, and I still can't win. (Not that winning is what I'm here for) I know I sometimes say things in ways that sound authoritarian or matter of factly, when there are other sides to the issue and valid arguments against my positions. It might help, if I wrote, "in my opinion..." more often, but I guess I just assume everything everyone says is just an opinion. I know there are a heck of a lot of people who know more about this great game of baseball than I do, and I'm sure some are right here on this site... many of whom I'm sure I have disagreed with from time to time. All this being said, I'd love to have a solid catcher that could also hit, or at least hit better than ours did last year, but I still think ours are a net plus- not great, but a little better than average overall.

And, some call us condescending.

I really don't have as much faith in ST'ing as you do. We'll have 3 catchers or more splitting time, and they often will be facing scrubs and wanna-bees. Swihart could go 15 for 20, and it wouldn't change my opinion. "Defend well enough" is a subjective term. IMO, Swihart has a very very long way to go on defense to come close to Leon, particularly Leon with Sale & Price. How much better would Swihart have to hit, if he caused the pitchers he caught to have an ERA 0.25 higher than had they been with Leon? How about 0.50? 0.75 or more? It's too risky for my liking. Even the drop off from Leon to Vaz with Sale and Price is scary enough. BTW, do you have a link where anyone important said Swihart's D improved last year?

They passed on Ockimey as a mandated 25 man roster player. They may like him as a project for future possibilities. I'd offer Velazquez or Johnson. They may want Swihart, if they trade Realmuto. I'd probably trade Chavis straight up for Conley, but I'd try to make it Chavis & Swihart for Conley & Guerrero. (I'd probably settle on Dalbec, if they insisted.) I'm not an expert on Conley. I'm just looking at his numbers, and he looks promising. I trust Sox management to know more than I do about his chances of helping in 2019.

He did let up an HR, and his K/9 was only 4.2, but his 1.15 WHIP was acceptable.

I was thinking Adam Conley. Maybe we can trade Velazquez, Ockimey and Swihart for Conley (or maybe Conley & Guerrero).

I agree 100%. Miami has some nice RP'ers, so I can't help but think (hope) we can expand the deal and get someone who can actually help the pen. It doesn't have to be a closer, but we need someone to fill in to the roles Barnes and Brasier had as they move to newer more important roles. Miami might be the team most likely to want prospects, even farther away ones, than any other team.

But according to you, Swihart is more part of the problem with MLB-caliber catching than part of the solution. Yes, and I said the hope was he'd improve. It wouldn't take much improvement for Swihart to go from maybe the 60th best catcher out of maybe 70 to 40th or 50th best- making him better than some teams' back-up catcher and maybe a little sought after. I've never said I expect much in trade for Swihart. If Pedroia can’t go, they might keep Swihart. But I think in that case, a capable backup SS or backup OF is probably more important to this team than a third catcher who can also play the corners in a pinch. A back up SS/OF would be ideal. (Lin?). Also at one point this off-season, Cora reportedly wanted a defensive 3b on the roster. Now as Cora is likely aware of the existence of both Holt and Nunez, he presumably wants someone else. I'd rather have Lin than Swihart on my 25 man roster, hence my mantra on trading Swihart. I’d like to see them deal Swihart for a RP, but I wonder what they can get (Tayron Guerrero?). I almost think any decent reliever you add Swihart to the package for can probably be had for the same package without him. If the Sox want a defensive SS/3b other than Lin, they might use him to pry someone like Miguel Rojas or JT Riddle out of Miami. It depends if any team thinks Swihart is good enough to make their 25 man roster. If not, he adds no value, since he is out of options.

Remember how you Yankee fans said our pen sucked last year? Maybe the catchers brought them up to top 10. Price is getting older and is not the same pitcher he was with the Rays- that's not our catcher's fault.\ Sale is doing better with the Sox than the CWS.

His defense doesn't have to be great to be better than a hobbled Nunez. Holt is not great on D at 2B. I'm hoping we don't have to find another Kinsler this year.

But, it did show a willingness to release Swihart. I think the main reason Swihart is still around is that the state of catching in MLB is just so damn poor. He has shown flashes of hope here and there, and maybe they hoped he'd build value by doing well after HRam was cut. It didn't really happen, but he hasn't really lost value either. My guess is we either trade Swihart as a small part of a package for RP'er, or we keep him until we know about Pedey.

If the Cubs trade Zobrist, they can probably afford Kimbrel.

Getting rid of HanRam had nothing to do with Swihart. IMO. It was clearly about the budget, as we can see now how much spending is available this winter. Trading Vaz or Leon almost certainly means Swihart catches more than 30 games, unless you think we bring up Centano and either keep Swihart or trade him, too. In my view, trading Vaz or leon raises the white flag of Swihart catching too much.

Not unless my scouts really liked two of the guys you listed, but that is not likely. I'd hate to trade Hernandez, so I'd look for any way to avoid it. If teams are not interested in Johnson, I might offer this and get the best we can, even if it's nothing too special: Chavis OR Dalbec- not both Velazquez or Johsnon- not both Swihart and/or Houck/Shawaryn Who do you think we can get for this offer?

I used CERA, but OPS against is probably a better indicator. It was closer on CERA. Here's OPS against: Sale .561 Leon (1250 PAs) .616 Flowers (2227) .622 AJ P (896) .680 Avila (449) Price .599 Avila (451 PAs) .616 J Jaso (778) .634 Molina (1878) .636 SLeon (718) .661 Navvaro (468) .691 McCann (433) .705 Shoppach (675) .735 Vazquez (1113, mostly due to that one "off year")

Do you think Leon can catch over 120 games effectively? If Yes, are you okay with Swihart catching 30-40 games a year? (He does okay with ERod, but who else would he catch?) If no, how about Swihart catching 50-70 games this year? (IMO, "YUCK! comes to mind very quickly!)

I don't think catcher offense or projected catcher offense improvement will be the deciding factor on who to keep. I do think Vaz and Swihart have a much better chance of being decent hitters than Leon, but to me, Leon's numbers with Sale & Price are just too good to mess with this year. To me, Vaz is clearly better than Swihart, so my choice is made. The only reason I'd trade Vaz is to free up budget space for a better RP'er, but even then, I don't want Leon catching more than he did last year, and I don't want Swihart catching much at all.

I've been a big supporter of Leon and Vaz, but I have never come near saying they are the best defensively. I have often acknowledged there are better catcher while warning of a possible learning curve, if we made a switch. I'd say Leon & Vaz are top 10 or 15 out of 60 catchers on defense (individually & combined) and bottom 10-15 on offense (combined). Of course there are catchers out there that can do what they do on defense AND hit better or much better, but it's not realistic to think we should spend our limited resources trying to upgrade the catcher position, when who we got work fine as is and are a net plus overall. Yes, Sale was great before coming here, and putting up a 2.51 ERA with AJ Pierzynski supports your point, but the guy he has had the most PAs against with is Tyler Flowers. Here's a look at the CERAs: 2.42 Leon (319 PAs) 2.51 AJ P (226) 2.98 Navarr0 (just 97) 3.02 Flowers (552) 3.36 Phegley (just 88) 3.40 Vaz (just 53) 3.53 Avila (112) 4.08 Navarez (just 18) David Price is clearly had to re-invent himself, so I'm not sure it's fair to compare his numbers with TB vs BOS. I know it sound contradictory to say the catcher makes a huge difference, then selectively negate the theory when it suits my position, but I think I have a good reason. Price also had one of the greatest defensive catchers of all time, Jose Molina. for the plurality of his PAs against, yet Leon still matched Molina and beat almost everyone else who had over 500 PAs with him. Here's his numbers: 2.83 SLeon (769) 2.85 JMolina (1878 PAs) 3.06 JJaso (778) 3.09 Navarro (542) 3.61 Shoppach (675) 4.32 Vazquez (1113) (Avila, McCann & Martin all got sub 3.00 with Price with between 296 and 451 PAs with him) I'd be thrilled, if we found a catcher like Leon who could hit, but unless we draft one, we can't afford to buy or trade for one, right now. I view Vaz/Leon as a clear net plus, but they certainly are not great or top 5 or 10 in overall value out of the 60 catchers who see the most time behind the plate.

Would it be a sell-off, if they got back ML ready talent like Swihart, Johnson, Velazquez or Chavis? They'd just be upgrading one area by trading from a surplus area.

Well, there are better RP'ers than Kelley out there that make less than $2.5M. That's one reason. If there is a limit on spending, a trade makes sense- maybe a mid season deal makes more sense, since we only pay a pro-rated share of the contract we trade for, but that is tempting fate.

I didn't mean to sound condescending, but there has been some talk of trading Vaz or Leon and letting Swihart catch a good percentage of the games. To me, that is a sign that some may not value that "relationship" as much as we do. They are top 10 out of 50-60 on defense + Pitcher handling. They are (combined) maybe bottom 10 or 15 on offense. The defense is connected to 30-45 PAs a game, while the offense is to 3-5. I know many here "get it." I'm not trying to sound smarter than anyone else, but in my opinion, our catchers are a solid plus and maybe even "special." I know Leon is "special" to Sale, and anyone special to Chris Freakin' Sale is special to me.

$2.5M I guess DD thinks he can do better, perhaps with a winter or summer trade.

I actually think our catchers are a major factor in our success. The catcher position may be the most valuable position per dollar on the team. I realize, I'm probably in the minority on thinking how a catcher's relationship with the staff is extremely important. It is also hard to measure, and for a stat guy like me to hold a position like this, I realize I'm opening myself up for criticism. I know other catchers are as good as our two in these areas, but there would be a learning curve, if we made a change, and I'm not sure we can afford to wait out a learning curve period. Every game counts. To think 3-4 offensive PAs by our catcher in any game is more important than the 30-40 PAs our catcher helps try to make an out from behind the plate is missing the big picture (not that you are missing anything).

Stat Corner has this for 2018's top 32 catchers by pitches caught: + Calls per 9 innings 1. Stassi 0.99 2. Grandal 0.95 3. S Leon 0.89 4. Flowers 0.55 5. Martin 0.52 6. Hedges 0.51 7. Sanchez0.35 8. Zunino 0.29 9. Vazquez 0.17