moonslav59

Nobody is saying our pen has been good. We can all agree they have sucked, recently, but blown saves is not the only stat that matters. It is certainly important, and I'm not trying to minimize the effect so many blown saves can have on the standings and team psyche. It sucks bigtime! That being said, our pen has been more responsible for the wins we have gotten than the starters, and they have lost less games for us than our starters. I did a game by game study, and it is not even a close call. Here is just a look at our first 82 games + 2 for any SP'er or Pen game where their ERA is 3.00 or less for 5 or more innings, 2.00 for 4 or less innings, 1.00 for 3 or less innings or 0.00 for 2 or less innings +1 for any SP'er or Pen game where their ERA is 3.00 or less for 4.2 or less innings. 0 for any game where their ERA is between 3.01 and 4.50. -1 for any game where their ERA is between 4.51 and 6.00. -2 for any game over 6.01 Game number, W or L, score, SP'er ER/IP- Pen ER/IP (score) 1. L 12-4 Sale 7/3- Pen 4/5 (S-2/R -2) 2. W 7-6 Eovaldi 6/5- Pen 0/4 (S-2/R+2) 3. L 6-5 ERod 5/4.1- Pen 0/3.2 (S-2/R+2) 4. L 10-8 Porcello 4/2.2- Pen 1/5.1 (S-2/R+2) 5. L 6-0 Price 4/6- Pen 2/2 (S-2/R-2) 6. L 1-0 Sale 1/6- Pen 0/2 (S+2/R+2) 7. W 6-3 Eovaldi 3/5- Pen 0/4 (S-1/R+2) 8. L 7-3 ERod 6/3.2- Pen 1/4.1 (S-2/R +2) 9. L 15-8 Porcello 7/4.2- Pen 8/3.1 (S-2/R-2) 10. W 5-4 Price 4/6- Pen 1/3 (S-1/R+1) Sub Total: SP -14/ RP +7 11. W 1-0 Velaz 0/3- Pen 0/6 (S+2/R+2) 12. L 7-5 Sale 5/4- Pen 2/5 (S-2/R+2) 13. W 7-6 Eovaldi 5/5- Pen 1/4 (S-2/R+2) 14. W 6-4 ERod 2/6.2- Pen 2/2.1 (S+2/-2) 15. L 9-5 Porcello 3/4- Pen 4/5 (S-2/R-2) 16. W 4-0 Price 0/7- Pen 0/2 (S+2/R+2) 17. L 8-1 Velaz 1/3- Pen 7/6 (S+1*/R-2) 18. L 8-0 Sale 4/5- Pen 4/3 (S-2/R-2) 19. L 5-3 Eovaldi 0/6- Pen 4/2 (S+2/R-2) 20. W 6-4 ERod 3/5.1- Pen 0/3.2 (S-1/R+2) Sub Total: SP +0/ RP +0 21. W 6-5 Porcello 2/5.2- Pen 3/3.1 (S+0/R-2) 22. W 4-3 Price 2/5- Pen 1/6 (S+2/R+2) 23. L 7-4 Sale 2/5- Pen 5/4 (S+2/R-2) 24. L 4-2 Velaz 3/3.1- Pen 1/5.9 (S-2/R+2) 25. W 11-4 ERod 1/6- Pen 3/3 (S+2/R-2) 26. W 7-2 Porcello 3/6- Pen 0/3 (S+0/R+2) 27. L 2-1 Price 2/6- Pen 0/3 (S+2/S+2) 28. L 5-2 Sale 2/7(2 unearned)- Pen 1/2 (S+2/R+0) 29. W 9-4 ERod 4/4.2- Pen 0/4.1 (S-2/R+2) 30. W 5-1 Porcello 0/8- Pen 1/1 (S+2/R-2) Sub Total: SP +8/ RP +2 31. W 7-3 Velaz 1/2- Pen 2/7 (S-2/R+2) 32. L 6-4 Price 3/6- Pen 2/2.1 (1 unearned) (S+0/R-2) 33. W 6-1 Sale 0/6- Pen 1/3 (S+2/R+1) 34. W 15-2 ERod 1/6- Pen 1/3 (S+2/R+1) 35. W 9-2 Porcello 2/6- Pen 0/3(S+2/R+2) 36. L 4-1 Smith 4/3.1- Pen 0/4.2 (S-2/R+2) 37. W 8-5 Velaz 2/3- Pen 3/7 (S-2/R+0) 38. W 2-1 Sale 1/8- Pen 0/4 (S+2/R+2) 39. W 14-1 ERod 0/7- Pen 1/2 (S+2/R+0) 40. W 9-5 Porcello 4/6.2- Pen 1/2.2 (S-1/R+0) Sub Total: SP+7/RP +8 41. W 11-2 Velz 2/5- Pen 0/4 (S+2/R+2) 42. L 5-4 Sale 2/7- Pen 3/4 (S+2/R-2) 43. W 6-5 ERod 5/6- Pen 0/4 (S-2/R+2) 44. L 3-1 Porcello 2/7 - Pen 0/2 (S+2/R+2) 45. L 7-3 Velaz 5/0.1 -Pen 2/8.2 (S-2/R+2) 46. W 4-3 Sale 3/5.1- Pen 0/3.2 (S+0/R+2) 47. W 12-2 Price 0/5 (2 unearned)- Pen 0/4 (S+2/R+2) 48. L 10-3 ERod 6/5- Pen 4/3 (S-2/R-2) 49. W 6-5 Porcello 1/6- Pen 4/7 (S+2/R+0) 50. W 8-2 Weber 1/6- Pen 1/3 (S+2/R+1) Sub Total: SP +6/ RP +9 51. L 4-3 Sale 2/6- Pen 0/2 (S+2/R+2) 52. L 4-3 Price 0/0.2- Pen 4/7.1 (S+0*/R+1) 53. W 4-1 ERod 1/6- Pen 0/3 (S+2/R+2) 54. W 12-5 Porcello 3/6.2 2 unearned- Pen 0/2.1 (S+1/R+2) 55. L 7-5 Price 0/6- Pen 7/3 (S+2/R-2) 56. L 14-9 Weber 7/4- Pen 7/5(S-2/R-2) 57. L 4-1 Sale 4/6- Pen 0/2 (S+0/R+2) 58. L 5-3 Porcello 5/4.2- Pen 0/3.1 (S-2/R+2) 59. W 8-5 Price 2/6.1- Pen 3/2.2 (S+2/R-2) 60: W8-3 KCR: ERod 2/5.2 2/ RP 1/3.1 1 (S+2/R+1) Sub Total: SP +7/ RP +6 61: W 8-0 KCR: Sale 0/9.0 (S+3**) 62: W 7-5 KCR: Weber 2/1.1- Pen: 3/7.2 IP 3 (S-2/R+1) 63: L 5-1 TBR: Porcello 4/6 IP- Pen 1/3.0 (S+0/R+1) 64: L 9-2 TBR: Josh Smith 4/4.0 IP- Pen 4/5.0 IP (S-2/R-2) 65: W 5-1 TBR: Price 1/6.0 IP-Pen 0/3.0 (S+2/R+2) 66: L 6-1 TBR: ERod 4/5.2- Pen 2/4.1 (S-2/R+0) 67: L 4-3 TEX: Sale 0/7.0- Pen 3/4.0 (S+2/R-2) 68: L 9-5 TEX: DHerm 3/3- Pen 5/6.0 (S-2/R-2) 69: W 4-3 TEX: Porcello 2/6.2-Pen 0/2.1 (S+2/R+2) 70: W 7-6 TEX: Price 6/1.1- Pen 0/7.9 (S-2/R+3**) Sub Total: SP -1/ RP +3 71: W 13-2 BAL: ERod 1/7- Pen 1/2.0 (S+2/R+0) 72: W 7-2 BAL: Sale 2/6.0- Pen 0/2.0 (S+2/R+2) 73: W 8-6 BAL in 10: Johnson 1/3.0 IP- Pen 3/7.0 (S+1/R+1) 74: W 2-0 MN: Porcell 0/7- Pen 0/2.0 (S+2/R+2) 75: L 4-3 MN (17 inn): Price 1/5.0- Pen 3/11.1 (S+2/R+2) 76: W 9-4 MN: ERod 4/7- Pen 0/2.0 (S+0/R+2) 77. W 7-5 TOR: Sale 3/5.0- (1 unearned)/ Pen 1/5.0 (S+0/R+2) 78: L 8-7 TOR: Johnson 0/5.0- Pen 7/4.0 (S+2/R-3**) 79: L 6-1 TOR: Porcello 5/6.0- Pen 1/3.0 (S-2/R+1) 80: W6-5 CWS: ERod 5/6.0- Pen 0/3.0 (S-2/R+2) Sub Total: SP +7/ RP +11 81: W6-3 CWS: Price 2/6.0- Pen 0/3.0 (S+2/R+2) 82: L 8-7 CWS: Sale 5/6.0-Pen 3/3.0 (S-2/R-2) The pen has never been minus in any 10 game segment. The season totals after 82 games: SP +20 RP +46 The gap has closed since game 82, but not by all that much.

Anybody know when these guys are due back? Eovaldi? Moreland? Pearce? Johnson?

162 games will likely remain, due to the money lost by shortening the season. If they can shorten the game to 2:00 or 2:15, it may be enough. I'm not sure mega offense is needed to bring in young fans, but my guess is it wouldn't hurt (although it may drive away old time purists). Pitch clock Robo Umps (cuts down complaining) Shorten review delay times Maybe... Force RP'ers to face 2-3 batters. 3rd foul after 2 strikes is a K. Stop massive expanded September rosters.

As with all major changes in MLB, it is slow. They still have not made the DH a rule in both leagues. I did not say they would be successful in capturing kids hearts, but I do think the talk of shortening the game will eventually lead to action, especially when attendance starts falling rapidly as our generation dies off. We will have an enforced pitch clock within the next few years. We will likely have rules on RP'er usage and a restricted pen size in September. This may not be enough to shorten the game enough to draw in more younger fans, but I'm pretty sure MLB is as dumb as they seem to be right now.

Does that free up enough money to sign another guy not expected to be signed?

Trading for a closer is not a reasonable alternative? Striking gold like we did with the 2018 Eovaldi is not a possibility? We even had two decent RP'ers in our own system we never knew we had: Beeks and Buttrey. Is there no chance we have one like them, now? I realize the odds are long on the last point, and getting lucky by trade is not easy, but the one thing DD has been very good at is finding gems in mid season trades. He hasn't really had a Gagne moment. I'm trying to stay optimistic, but it isn't easy. The next 3 weeks will be telling.

There is a chance a 2 hour 15 minute, highly offensive game can capture kids hearts. I think that is the gamble we are headed towards.

We don't have a "MIggy contract". We still have some solid, low-cost players like Devers, Beni, ERod & maybe Chavis. Many feel we underpaid Bogey & Sale. Many of our big contracts are up in 1-3 years. It's not quite as bad as Detroit or Fla, but there are certainly big financial and farm system issues to deal with that have near impossible ways to fix in today's systems. I agree with your mediocrity position. Never getting any top draft picks by having a real "cliff" year or two makes it almost impossible to ever rebuild the farm to decency, let alone one of the best like we had back in the early to mid 2000's and the Betts-Bogey-Bradley era. On the bright side, does it really look like major losses, based on how these guys are doing this year and the fact that we are still in the playoff race, to lose: Porcello Moreland Pearce Nunez Holt Thornburg I'm not so sure 2020is the year we suffer greatly. We may even end up trading JBJ and bringing in a low-cost, defensive CF'er that hits a consistent .690-.720 and hardly miss a beat. (Maybe?) We may see Pedey retire and save us some bucks, but that is unlikely. If JD leaves, we can reset, but we won't be true contenders without him, and we won't be a last place team either and be able to draft the next Beni with the 7th pick. Only Sale and Bogey are under contract until 2023. Only Eovaldi, Price and Vaz until 2022. We have the flexibility to totally reset and be bad for one year, if we want. I guess Sale could become our "Miggy," but I still have faith. I have no faith our farm can be rebuilt to top 10 or even 15 without a firesale at some point in the next 2 years. If we match that up with a one time budget reset and one "bad year" we may be able to get back to the top in a short time. It will take at least a couple big decisions by Henry & DD.

I was talking about 2019. We may only need to find a guy like the 2018 Eovaldi (for Beeks) to make a strong run this year. While I admit we got a bit lucky with Nate's playoff performance, we may not have to empty the farm to get much better at the deadline. I have been one to recognize the trouble we will be in starting in 2020 or 2021, even if we are spending up to the second limit each of those years. No convincing needed here.

...then got career years out of everything they touched to win it in 2013... Urban myth. Some had better years than 2012 and 2014, but very few had "career years."

I don't know when, but I discussed the moves on the Realistic thread. We also have out-of-options Pearce and Johnson to deal with.

You keep picking probable sellers as destinations for Porcello.

The way Porcello has pitched his last 3 games, he'd take the QO. The way he pitched the 12 games before that, he may not. My point was the 4th round pick might be a better prospect than what we'd get by trading him, if he's still doing poorly by the deadline.

So, you are totally giving up on this year? Do you really think the return on a Porcello trade will make a difference in 2020 or beyond? I get your point about getting nothing, but next to nothing while zeroing our 2019 chances makes little sense to me.

I was a solo day trader for about 3 years and did well. I doubt it has much to do with valuing ML talent or trade ideas.

Despite doing surprisingly well this year, I predict the Reds will be sellers. If they decide to buy, I doubt it will be for an expensive rental.

Bring it on! 2020 Baby!

1. Porcello's playoffs were not without incidents. He did let up 6 ERs in 15.1 IP (3.52), which is good, especially for him, but not so great some GM is pining for him. 2. Yes, his last 3 games have been horrible, but I doubt even a few GM base value on just the recent 3 game sample size. 12.75 ERA last 3 games 3.20 ERA in his previous 10 starts (Maybe he has more value than some think he has, even at his $9M price tag.) 3. Only a contender shut out on better SP'ers would trade for Porcello, and it would be for a prospect. 4. The Quality Offer option may still be on the table, if Rick turns things around. If he refuses, we get a draft pick, which may be better than the prospect we may get in trade. 5. Most likely, we wait another 18-19 days and make the choice then.

If we try to totally reset, we will have a step down, but if not, I agree, we should be hanging around the WC level.

I'm thinking DD and Henry do not want the "cliff" to be last place finishes, so they will not sacrifice too much of 2020 or beyond to improve our odds this year. DD may try to find a similar deal as the 2018 Eovaldi deal in hopes or repeating the magic withou giving up too much.

We will get nothing for Porcello in trade. He's owed about $9M. I guess, if you've totally given up on the reigning champs, trading JD makes some sense, but my guess is he comes back next year.

True. I agree on the probable cause of his shoulder issues. I'm not talking about that freakish stretch as his "norm". We can beat the May 1st date to death, but he was fine from May 1st to May 30th (5 GS) 2.23 ERA He has NOT been fine since, and the sample size is larger than the May one. He's been okay but far from his "norm" after May 24th. 3.83 ERA in 7 GS'd and 5.96 his last 4 starts. As for the bad W-L record, yes run support has been exceedingly low. To see our 5th starters combine for a winning record & us having a 6-12 record in Sale starts baffles my mind. That being said, he's only had 3 games where he clearly deserved to win. 4/2 lost 1-0 5/14 lost 5-4 (7 IP 2 ER) 6/10 lost 4-3 (7 IP 0 ER & 1 Run) Realistically, we should/could be 9-9 in his starts.

From his previous April norms? Maybe "near," but still lower. His 2018 April velocity was much lower than his norm and slightly lower than his previous April norms. You keep acting like I'm doubting his velocity was low in April or than the extra rest was a reason for this. Nothing is farther than the truth. https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=10603&position=P&pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=game&start=2013&end=2019&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax= My point was that Sale's 2019 post April velocity is close to his velocity of April 2018 NOT the rest of 2018 or his norms from previous seasons. I'd have expected better with all the rest. He had one freakish game this year, where his velocity spiked, and it was his 4th start of the year (still in April). The rest of his season has been fully below norms.

Why now? Porcello just had 3 horrible starts. We have 3 weeks before the deadline. There is no rush to trade anyone. Selling low is foolish. There may be a rush to trade FOR someone.

Sounds pointless but carry on....