moonslav59

I'll be shocked if he ranks us any higher than 25 this year and 18-20 next year. As it pertains to the cliff, most of these guys will be far from the majors by 2020 and 2021, so the whole argument that the farm would miraculously rebuild itself in time to keep the cliff from happening is looking pretty lame, right now. BTW, I've never said our farm was barren. Our main farm issue is the lack or ML ready or near ML ready difference makers. We'll have Beni & Devers for a while, but when can we realistically expect the next Beni or Devers to arrive?

You think Swihart going 6 for 15 in the beginning of ST'ing will win him the job? Management knows what we got.

LOL. Good one! Going by Steamer, Swihart for Guerrero would be a steal for the Marlins.

It would surprise me, especially Price. We could see Wright given a chance to close, if he is healthy. The only way I see Eovaldi used as our closer is in the playoffs or some scenario like this... A starter gets hurt, and Wright, Johnson or Velazquez pitches very well in the rotation. At the same time, our closer pitcher is struggling. The injured pitcher returns to the rotation, and the Sox brass decides to move Eovaldi to closer- perhaps to limit his IP. I doubt we see any of our starting 5 as the closer during the regular season.

Wow! The cliff deniers were right: our farm system is making a comeback. On the way up, baby!

There are dozens of pitchers like Buch and Pom, and I get why some focus on them or sometimes, seemingly, only them.

We are "going for it." We've still are spending more than anyone else and are a top 3 favorite right now. Just because we have one area that could use an upgrade or two, doesn't mean we are not strong contenders. That's a nice team we have right now. And, DD may not be done.

Yes, it does.Plus, I think part of the reason for using Vaz more in the playoffs was that Leon was burnt out. Leon should never be counted on as the main guy (80+ games).

Leon is only significantly better than Vaz with Sale & Price. Vaz is known for his defense, but for some reason he not only slumped offensively last year, but he started the season off looking worse than Swihart behind the plate. I may be just a homer, but I thought he looked much better as the year went on. (Leon looked worse.) Maybe it was personal issues. Maybe it was just a slump. I'm with you on the idea of keeping both. I know Swihart isn't bringing us a decent RP'er, but maybe Johnson & Swihart or Chavis & Swihart can.

There's nobody as good or better than Kelley? I'm far from an expert on players on other teams, but my guess is there are plenty out there. The issue is the price we pay and if other teams value Johnson or Velazquez, Chavis or Dalbec and maybe Swihart as a throw in. Here might be a couple options that are possible upgrades on Hembree: Lou Trivino (Oak) Adam Conley (Mia)

We've heard the pessimism for weeks, and I'm not going to pretend I'm optimistic about our pen, especially the closer role, but when focusing on a team's weakest we sometimes are easily persuaded into thinking weakest means weak. Our pen is certainly weaker than the Yanks and several other teams, but it may still be top 15 or middle tier (11-20th best). It will likely be average. Not great: not horrible. Here's an optimistic look at our 2019 pen. 1) We might not be done with winter additions. We could sign Kelley or trade for someone seemingly better suited for the closer role than anyone we have now. 2) We could see someone step up and fill the role, like Uehara did. 3) We could make an in-season trade, if needed. A positive light shown on what we currently have as pen options, assuming our 5 starters (Sale, Price, Porcello, Eovaldi & ERod) are healthy most of the year: Matt Barnes: He's 28. He had an amazing 14.0 K/9 rate in 62 IP last year. His K rate has improved every year, as has his K/BB ratio. His ERA and FIP have improved for 3 straight years to 2.71 in '18. He had his lowest HR/9 rate ever (0.7) in 2018. His 2.4 WAR since 2017 places him 22nd out of 141 qualifying RP'ers. His 3.07 xFIP ranks 20th. 15th 2.98 Treinen 17th 3.00 Osuna 20th 3.07 Barnes 26th 3.20 Soria 44th 3.59 MMinor 56th 3.72 Streckenrider 63rd 3.85 Hembree 64th 3.88 Colome 68th 3.91 Rodney 71st 3.93 Ottavino 78th 4.00 C Allen 84th 4.04 Leclerc 85th 4.40 J Wilson 87th 4.05 Joe Kelly 93rd 4.13 B Brach 101st 4.24 Herrera 110th 4.41 A Wilson 136th 5.01 Strickland Maybe Barnes can improve one more year. I'm not sure some of these recent signees are any better anyways. His playoff numbers are a awesome, but 10 IP is a pretty small sample size (0.87 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP). Ryan Brasier: He's 31. His 34 IP is pretty tiny. His 1.60 ERA and 2.83 FIP were pretty awesome. He had a 4.14 K/BB ratio, as was his 0.772 WHIP. He had a 1.04 playoff ERA, but his WHIP was 1.39- not good. Of course, Brasier is a huge question mark, but the guy looked tough. There's hope he can do well for at least another year. Heath Hembree: He just turned 30, and although his 2018 season was disappointing, he pulled it together for the post season (0.00/ 1.071 in 4.1 IP). His K/9 rate of 11.4 was a career high, and he's improved 3 years in a row. His 1.333 WHIP last year was not great, but it's better than his career or 2018 numbers. It's hard to get optimistic over Hembree, but he does offer some hope. Tyler Thornburg: He's 30. He had one super great year back in 2016 before the injury. That 2016 is probably the only thing to be optimistic about. In 2016, he had a 2.15 ERA. a 0.94 WHIP and a 12.1 K/9 rate. He has amazing career reverse splits: .556 vs LHBs .760 vs RHBs Steven Wright, Brian Johnson & Hector Velazquez: Wright has had several flashes of greatness, and when he's healthy, he's been very good almost all the time. Johnson and Velazquez showed some promise last year but will have to make major steps forward to fill important roles on this team. The good think is, we may just need one or two to come through. Possible Help: Brandon Workman, Bobby Poyner, Erasmo Ramirez, Marcus Walden and others. These are real prayers, but sometimes our prayers are answered.

I wasn't aware trades are forbidden in the winter.

Nice start. Welcome back to your old hometown.

Vaz's offense is not even close to the main reason I'd keep him. It's his defense and pitcher handling skills and ability to catch more than 80-100 games that makes him the keeper. I don't trust Leon as a FT catcher, and I trust Swihart way less. If we trade Vaz, Leon catches 120 and Swihart. 42? You okay with that?

There are more choices.

Read my post. The hole is 1B not 3B. A sugar is a massive upgrade at 1B. Nobody is screaming for Machado on the Yanks, and you clearly have a weakness at 1B, whether you choose to agree or not. I'm not saying you should or need to sign Machado. My point is the same argument can be made about the Yanks getting close and then stopping short of pushing all the chips in. We just won a ring. The Yanks should have a greater sense of urgency. If anything, it is the Sox that should be thinking longer term with the impending cliff on our doorstep.

Do you really want Leon or Centano catching 120+ games? As for Vaz on offense vs Leon, I guess we'll have to wait and see. I know I have way more faith in Vaz getting close to .700 than Leon. I never said Vaz is a good hitter. It's more about my opinion that Leon is horrible, not likely to improve at his age and seemingly getting worse the more he plays. Not sure where any straw man was created.

I think we trade Swihart, even if it's for a single-A hopeful. Lin is the 25th man. Our 4 man bench is Pearce or Moreland, Vaz or Leon, Nunez or Holt (assuming Pedey is on the DL) and Lin. If Pedey is on the 25, then Lin is in AAA. JD, Holt, Nunez, Pearce, Moreland and Lin can all play OF, if needed.

If you’re gonna push your chips to the middle for one more season, then do it. Don’t tiptoe up to the line and stay behind it ... $240M is more chips than anyone else has pushed to the middle of the table. We are right up there in odds of winning it all. One could ask, why don't the Yanks sign Machado and move Andujar to 1B? Why go all the way this far, then leave such a glaring weakness at 1B- a position normally associated with mega offense. Everybody on this planet knows they have this weak area. Just spend more. Push all the chips.

I get why people focus more on players they know more about, like Buch, Kimbrel, Pom and guys like Masterson before. Our management team has done an excellent job determining when enough is enough. They seem to be very good at placing the correct value on players they know and see the most- not surprising, right? You won't see me clamoring Buch, Pom or Kimbrel. They all left us just at the right time (maybe Pom a year too late).

Maybe owners are frightened of a massive recession. Many indicators are pointing to one. Maybe Henry and DD were prepared to spend more, if the Yanks had signed Machado or Harper, but now they don't feel the pressure to make a high risk signing.

I think they know who they'd like to keep- Vaz & Leon, but the question is how important is it to upgrade the pen vs weakening the catching, plus budget concerns that might give trading Vaz more value. Vaz catches Porcello, Eovaldi and ERod. Leon catches Sale & Price. To me, this is as clear as day the best choice. Now, if we could get a solid RP'er for Vaz and only Vaz, then maybe the choice gets cloudier.

Whoop-dee-freakin'- doo!

If we trade Vaz, Swihart will play more than 30 games. That frightens me, and it should frighten every Sox fan. Look at how our SP'er do when he catches. Maybe, it's just a fluke. Maybe with time, they'd grow accustomed to him and do well. I'm not willing to risk it. That brings us to Leon, assuming we trade Vaz. My 200 point possibility was based on the assumption that either Vaz or Leon would catch 110-115 games in 2019. Leon seems to tire out the more he plays. He'd probably hit under .500 (yes OPS) if he played that much. I think Vaz can hit near .700 this year over 110-115 games. That's a possible 200 point gain, which is close to the difference between JD and a Pearce/Moreland platoon. No, I do NOT want to go into the 2019 season counting on Swihart to catch more than 5-10 games. If there's a catcher injury, maybe we could deal with 25-35 starts, but no way do I want a Leon-Swihart tandem all year. I'm not willing to trust the learning curve period is short, or worse, they never adjust to him and our staff ERA jumps a half run or more due to trading Vaz. Swihart seems to do okay with RP'ers, so keeping 3 catchers and PH'ing for one or two of them in any particular game would minimize the fright level by not seeing Swihart with any of our starters, except maybe ERod, who seems to do about the same with everyone. Ideally, IMO, Leon starts when Sale & Price do. He only starts with someone else, if Vaz is hurt or needs a rest. Swihart is either a utility player or is traded. (Vaz 110-120 games & Leon 42-52 games started) I'm going throw a question back at you: why give Swihart a chance? Are you willing to risk our great staff success on these numbers? Chris Sale: It's very telling that Swihart has never even caught 1 inning with Sale. Career ERA with... 2.42 Leon (319 IP) 3.40 Vaz (53 IP) n/a Swi (0) David Price: Pretty telling that Swihart has only caught Price 11 innings out of nearly 500 with the Sox. 2.83 Leon (194 IP) 4.32 Vaz (263) 5.73 Swi (11) Porcello 4.14 Leon (483 IP) 4.15 Vaz (134) 4.59 Swihart (118) Eovaldi (Tiny sample sizes) 0.55 Vaz (16 IP) 3.86 Leon (35) n/a Swi (0) ERod (The one pitcher I might trust with Swihart for 20+ starts) 4.00 Leon (99) 4.08 Swi (71) 4.24 Vaz (276) Wright (Swi does well here) 3.35 Vaz (97) 4.06 Swi (71) 5.59 Leon (56) The Pen: Barnes 3.72 Vaz (97 IP) 3.80 Leon (83) 5.02 Swi (38) Brasier (Tiny sample sizes) 1.29 Swi (7 IP) 1.40 Leon (19) 2.84 Vaz (6) Hembree 1.82 Swi (25) 3.52 Leon (77) 4.20 Vaz (81) Johnson 3.47 Leon (47) 3.72 Swi (46) 5.88 Vaz (34) Velazquez 2.25 Leon (32) 3.21 Vaz (56) 3.79 Swi (19) We can gamble that these numbers mean little or nothing, but I'd rather nor.

I would. And my reasons are simple. 1) Leon is as good defensively as Vazquez and Sale and Price work better with Leon. That's a reason to keep Leon not to trade Vaz. 2) While Vazquez should be a better hitter, the catcher bats ninth for this team anyway. Vaz might hit 200 points higher than Leon next year- 9 slot or not, that's huge. 3) His AAV is actually the highest of the three. Legit reason. We could trade Vaz for a cheap RP'er then use the money to get another one. 4) If the Sox are hellbent on keeping Swihart, at some point it needs to be justified with more playing time than a third string catcher typically gets. They are not hellbent. He will be traded, soon. 5) I have a little faith in Swihart defensively and offensively. At least for now. This is a reason to keep Vaz. "Little faith" is not good enough. 6) And most important, I think Vazquez can bring back a decent return... Certainly better than the other catchers, but the hole opened will be worse than the hole filled in the pen, IMO.