moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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Hembree is pitching today.
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More like a goiter! -
I'm not convinced on Chavis. He had a very hot start then hit under .700 the rest of the way (over 3 months). His bat would be good for 2B but not 1B. His glove may not be good enough at 2B, but he surprisingly looked okay in limited duty there in 2019. Ward has not even faced AAA batters, yet. He's projected to start 2020 in Portland. Let's not get ahead of ourselves.
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I added Chavis and Marco to your list (plus another position- 2B)
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Here are some splits: vs RHPs: .898 Ockimey AAA 2019/ .968 AA 2018 .794 Dalbec AA 2019/ .970 A 2018 .774 Chavis MLB 2019 .757 Lin MLB Career/ .712 AAA 2019/.805 AAA '18 .733 Marco MLB Career/.852 AAA 2019 .564 Travis MLB Career/ .728 AAA 2019 vs LHPs: .904 Dalbec AA 2019/ .881 A 2018 .742 Chavis MLB 2019 .730 Travis MLB Career/.955 AAA 2019 .605 Marco MLB Career/.469 AAA 2019 .535 Ockimey AAA 2019/ .586 AA 2018 .502 Lin MLB Career/.522 AAA 2019/ .826 AAA '18 As long as Ockimey never starts vs LHPs and Travis never starts vs RHPs, we might end up okay at 1B, 2B and DH, next year. Vs RHPs: DH: Ockimey/Chavis 1B: Dalbec/Ockimey 2B: Chavis/Marco/Lin Vs. LHPs: DH: Chavis/Travis 1B: Dalbec 2B: Chavis/Marco/Lin
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It's really Chavis/Dalbec/Ockimey/Travis/Marco filling 3 roles. (Marco is the only one who fills just one role: 2B.) I'd be fine replacing Travis with a cheap FA 1B/DH type or 1B/LF type.
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Or, fill the 25th and 26th slots on your roster with 2 pitchers who can go 3-4 IP every 4-5 days. Probably best to be a lefty and a righty. Both could maybe go 3 innings every 5 days and give an inning here and there in between. Could DHern and Houck fill those roles? (Johnson, Velazquez, Wright?)
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I'm fine with replacing JBJ with an equal glove and a worse bat as a bridge to the time we can go for a ring, then we may need better offense, or we may not. I'd trade JD, but with the idea that we will do what it takes to keep Betts. If we lose both, we better have a GM that will spend their money wisely and not on the next Pablo, HRam or Eovaldi.
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Let's say we trade JBJ for a low cost, decent RP'er. We trade JD + $6M (saving $16M) for a low cost but good SP'er. If my numbers are right, we'd have about $16-20M to spend on a defensive CF'er and a good pen arm and Sp'er depth. No doubt, losing JBJ and JD will hurt our chances at competing in 2020, but depending on who we get back and who we sign, we may be just as good on paper, but we'd be better placed going forward, financially and in terms of players under team control for 2021 and beyond. No JD, JBJ, Wright or Hembree. I'll assume Leon comes back at $1M. Here could be the 2020 roster: SP: Sale, ERod, Price, Eovaldi, ____ (JD trade), DHern RP: ___ (FA), Workman, Barnes, Taylor, ___ (JBJ trade), Walden, ___(FA) C: Vaz & Leon 1B: Dalbec & Travis/Ockimey 2B: Chavis & Marco/Lin/Chatham 3B: Devers SS: Bogey LF: Beni CF: ____(FA) RF: Betts DH: Chavis/Ockimey
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We will have a 26 man roster, next year, so maybe it's not such a big deal anymore.
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The hard part is getting 6 innings every start. We can probably get a 5.50 ERA from a mixture of DHern, Johnson, Velazquez, Shawaryn, Wright and Houck but not 6 IP/GS. If we knew Sale, Price and ERod could go 6 each start, we wouldn't need 6 from the 4-5 slots, but we can't count on 6 from anybody but maybe ERod in 2020.
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My guess is he's over-using depressants.
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I can see us letting JBJ go, being $1M under the tax line, and if we are in it at the trade deadline, then deciding to go for one more ring and reset after 2020.
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2 years in a row and being his 3rd (but not last) arb usually pays out, but if I'm high, then we have more wiggle room than I thought.
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100% JBJ is my favorite Sox player, but I think he should be traded.
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I could see us trading Betts, if he turns down a big extension offer, but I hope we go hard after him as a FA after 2020 and the reset. I'd rather see us trade JD, who is less likely part of our plans beyond 2020 (opt out is more likely). I know we won't get nearly as much as we would for Betts, and if we end up losing Betts anyway, then we're down 2 big bats and one big glove. However, it's not like we won't use the money from JD and Betts to get several other good players. It's a tough call. I can't see trading Sale, Price or Eovaldi, unless their stock rises with a healthy start to the 2020 season. The Pedey retirement idea is just a dream- a very unlikely one. We're not trading Bogey. Beni might bring back a nice haul, but with JBJ likely gone and no OF prospects in sight, I can't see that happening. (I wouldn't be against trading Beni, if the return haul was good enough, and we saved some money to spend elsewhere.)
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Workman made $1.1M this year. I think that is part of the calculation. He just had a good year, but it's his only good year. Being his last arb year does usually add to the cost, so you might be right. Betts slipped a little, this year, so I'm not sure he gets the $28M I projected earlier this year. First arb years, like Beni's, are hard to project. I think that if Hembree is gone, as you project, we can be under the line by $1M to $6M. If the number is $6M, we can sign a very cheap defensive CF'er and pen arm. Assuming almost perfect health, we could have a competitive team next year, but that's hoping for a lot. I'm not expecting ring competitiveness in 2020, but it could still be a fun year to watch. With expectations much lower, sometimes the same season (like 2019 vs 2020) can be more enjoyable to watch.
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Cots has us $56M under the line before arbs. Lets assume no JBJ, Wright or Leon and go a little higher on my arb estimates: $$$ 28 Betts (3rd of 3 arbs) 12 ERod (3rd of 4) 9 Beni (1 of 3) 4 Barnes (2 of 3) 4 Workman (3 of 3) 2 Hembree (2 of 3) That's $58M and puts us $2M over the line. No Hembree would put us right at the line- worst case.
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Not by my calculations. I have us at about $4-6M under, if we lose JBJ's $10M estimated arb cost. (Leon or another catcher at min wage. No Wright.) Tax Dollars (*arb estimate) 31 Price 27* Betts 26 Sale 22 JD 20 Bogey 17 Eovaldi 14 Pedey 11* ERod 10* JBJ 7* Beni 3* Barnes 4 Vaz 3* Workman 2* Hembree 2* Leon 1* Wright Nobody else over $1M $2M for the rest of the 40 man roster Total $187M without JBJ, Wright & Leon +$15M Player benefits $202M Total $6M to spend on FAs. If my arb numbers are low, maybe we trade Hembree. I also think we may look to trade JD or Eovaldi, but that would radically change the talent level of the team, assuming both are healthy all 2020.
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We could have the same team- maybe healthier, but without just JBJ. We'd have enough money to spend on a cheap defensive only CF'er and a pen arm.
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Someday, we may learn the specifics. I wonder, if that was when the contract issue arose.
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I'm wrong too often to gloat when I'm right. I do think JBJ or JD will be traded. That's my next call. I was gald to hear the reset does not mean Betts is traded, and they actually said theyw ere going to try and extend him this winter.
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MLBTR reports we are going to reset the tax, next year. Bye-bye Rick. Bye-bye JBJ or maybe JD.
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Good bye JBJ. Sox will get under the luxury tax next year. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/09/red-sox-aim-goal-to-get-under-luxury-line-in-2020-salary-payroll-rumors.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook
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I disagree. 1) We probably will not be in the race, so we won't be thinking one guy might have made a difference. 2) I won't miss 12 out of 32 starts allowing 5 or more runs and a 5.50 ERA. 3) I will miss the IP'd and the strain he takes off the pen.
