moonslav59

What fact? An article that focuses mostly on 2007-2016 or the fact that are farm is in the bottom third and has had a horrible IFA period lasting 4-5 years and a so-so drafting record since 2014. We got many of our greatest players or traded prospects from the IFA market. I'm not focusing on just that, in fact I listed every draft since 2014 and just provided a link for the IFA selections. Here is a list of significant IFA signings by time period: 2003-2015 Doubront Dice-K Okajima Tazawa Bogey Iggy (traded for Peavy) Montas (traded) Aro (traded) Lin Margot (traded for Kimbrel) Bautista (traded) Devers D Hernandez Moncada (traded for Sale) Castillo Espinoza (traded for Pomeranz) 2015-2019 Velazquez D Flores (RIP) I may be over hyping the IFA market, but look at all those names. Why are you neglecting it? We've sucked at it for 4 cycles. How many more do we need to convince you that area sucks, and that area is a big part of player "recognition". As to the Cora is the greatest ever, the jury is still out. I may have been wrong with what I said. If your logic concludes that once somebody is wrong about something, they must be wrong about everything, I can see why you were duped by this article. I'm sure those who wrote the article have NEVER been wrong. Bottom line: Our farm is bottom 3rd. We have improved some under tough circumstances, which is a good sign, but to say "the facts are clear Boston is second to none in scouting" is just plain speculation at best and absurdity at worst. It's like me saying, "the facts are clear that Cora is the best Sox manager ever, because he has a 50% Ring rate, and that's a fact."

Me2. Also, look at their draft positions: 22 16 4 13 21 21 25 24 17 30 Not that much different than ours, yet they have a top 10 farm.

That was one year, but if you look at the years before & after, I'm not sure you can say it hurt that much.

The IFA signings have killed us and that used to be our strength. There's no way anybody can rightfully call the Sox top talent recognition people with that horrid record since Moncada & Espi in 2014 and Devers in 2013.

Or, is traded.

It's not clearly documented they are the best. We have sucked at signing international free agents for father back than 2016. Look for yourself. Nobody can claim we have done well in that area. Yes, one of the best guys we signed died, but we're not even sure he would have been a top prospect/ https://soxprospects.com/international.htm Our last great drafts were 2011 and 2014, and 2011 was helped by 4 comp picks. The 2014 draft was all about getting Betts in the 5th round and Kopech. We've done squat since then, except for Beni with a 7th pick, which we won't be getting again, unless we hit the cliff. You want me to "document" the squat? 2015 (The second to last year we drafted high) 7th Beni 171 Lakins 411 Poyner Not bad, but not top talent recognition drafting so high. 2016: (last year drafting high) 12 Groome - got hurt and could rise 51 Chatham 88 S Anderson 118 Dalbec 148 Shawaryn Again, not bad, but no evidence of great recognition 2017: 24 Houck - might amount to something but is not top 100 like top recognition guys should be drafting 24th every now and then 63 Brannen- lol 101 Netzer- double lol 131 Thompson- lmao 161 Scherff- wing and a prayer choice 2018: 26 Casas- their best choice first round below #12 in I don't know how long but still ranked like 85th. 64 Decker- lol 100 Feltman- maybe 130 Coleman- who? 160- Ward- GREAT Pick fromt his slot Overall a decent draft with such bad picks. 2019 (saw a draft penalty due to overspending) 43 Cannon 69 Lugo- could be good 107 Zeferjahn 137 Song- nice pick Overall, maybe good for the bad picks, but clearly not good enough to help us get to a top 10 farm again. If you combine the horrid IFA signings with the draft picks, there is no way you can say we are on track to become a top 10 farm again, unless we suck and get top 10 picks at some point. Look, I want to believe otherwise. I see we have some very promising prospects, but compare our top 20 list to the top 20 from April 2016 (Moncada, Devers, Espi, Beni, Kopech, Basabe, Dubon, Marco, Chavis...) or April 2014 (Betts, Bogey, JBJ, Vaz, Barnes, Workman, Margot, Devers...) and our list now is not even close. https://soxprospects.com/history.htm By the way, Amiel Sawdaye was our Director of Amateur scouting until the 2014 draft, so there was a change. He wasn't the only one who left, either. Mike Rikard has been the guy from 2015-2019- that's 5 years and not really part of the 2007-2016 stretch very much.

or, a trade off and a near future spending frenzy.

You mean without subsequent years of suffering? The guys we traded may still become great or much better. I liked many of the trades, including the Sale trade, even if Moncada becomes a monster, but it does make a difference if he does or doesn't.

Yes. I actually think DD did okay with what picks he had. He sucked in IFAs. Our farm is better than I thought it would be, but it is a far distance from where it needs to be to make the rebuild complete and sustainable. The changes in the system are the main reason, and that's why I have stressed the need to get the best people into our scouting and talent recognition areas plus developing pitchers.

Judging who we traded before they've reached the end of team control years is premature.

22nd is no where near what we were before, and that is just one service saying we are 22nd. It's a good source, but most of the article was about 2007-2016, I've never said our farm was totally void of talent, but the few bright stars are far away. Chavis losing prospect status is a tiny blip. The guy hit under .700 for the 3 months after his first 2-3 weeks.

I totally agree with everything but the last sentence, although to some extent we do have to "sell high" like the Rays do, but just not to that extent. I've said all along, we need to find the best scouts and talent developers and spotters, or at least top 5. There is no evidence we have anywhere near that, now. What we did from 2003-2012 is behind us. We've had a pretty bad record drafting and signing IFAs since about 2012. I know the system has changed, but other winning teams find ways, and with the Yanks and Dodgers, it was by selling some top assets for prospects here and there. It's time to trade JD & JBJ, try to hope others like Eovaldi, Price, Sale and Barnes build up value to either help us rebuild or to become future trade assets to further our rebuilding efforts. None of that will matter, if we can't score some top prospects through the draft and IFA market.

The article is based on old news (2007-2016) before all the changes made to the system and when we had different management and scouting teams.

That's what Keuchel thought, and his "bad year" was better than Porcello's 2-3 off years.

He might take $10-12M, but I'd think he might be worth $12M/2. $11M would really tighten the budget and would mean JBJ and someone else would have to go to reset, or trade JD.

Gives us your number. It's easy to say, "I'd like Porcello back," but tell us what offer you'd make that he'd accept. Then, show how we reset by offsetting his contract with a DFA or contract traded.

Yes, and Tomorrow is now today.

Old news. The sample ends in 2016. You used to be able to draft "unsignable" prospects late in the rounds, becauee there were no spending limits in signing draftees. It's changed, dude! BIGTIME! The International FA system radically changed since then. There is bonus pool money and penalties to those who spend too much. We haven't drafted well while picking low in ages. We got Casas & Kopech since 2012. That's it. (Beni was a 7th pick.)

Theo was operating under a different system. Give me just one "indication" the farm system will return to status quo? Is the new guy going to revamp our scouting & developing? Maybe, if we finish 30th a couple years in a row.

Yes, and even $60M/3 for Betts was a steal.

Come on, part of the reason was we rushed Devers to graduation, and we also kept Beni. Look, I said it was closer to decimated than "some" prospects were traded, and being ranked 30th for 2 straight years certainly can be called decimated, but we look like we might have 2-3 guys in the top 100 in the next rankings, so maybe we are just arguing semantics. Here were the top Sox prospects, when DD took over: 1. Moncada 2. Devers 3. Espinoza 4. Margot 5. Beni 6. Guerra 7. Kopech 8. Johnson 9. Travis 10. Marerro 11. Chavis (5 of top 11 were not traded.) ERod & Barnes had just graduated months earlier and Swihart and Owens fell off the table shortly after DD took over, but they were not traded.

It's not that simple. We need better scouts than other teams have. The system has changed, and it is much harder for winning teams and teams spending over the tax line to acquires top prospects. Just look at the IFA market. We've sucked for several years now, so I'm not sure where the "adept at signing good prospects" is coming from. The last meaningful IFA signing was Velazquez way back in Feb 2017. Before that it was Castillo and Espinoza in 2014. You have to go back to 2013 and the Devers signing to see where we struck gold. As for drafting, the jury is still out, but I trust the rankings that show we are bottom 8, at best.

Actually, our home grown players far out-weighed our FAs in all our championship seasons, so I'm not sure I'd say "biggest factor." Winning while not being the top spender just feels better, to me. Of course, winning is most important. I'd rather win with Henry spending $300M than not winning, but I think you know what I mean. (Maybe not, being a Yankee fan and all.)

If we are going to reset, we will be scraping the walls to find a dollar here and a dollar there. Is Porcello really someone we want in our short term or long term plans? Signing him, even to a team friendly deal, would almost certainly mean someone else goes or is not signed. I'm not even sure we can afford $10M/2, and I seriously doubt he takes anywhere near that. What offer are you thinking we can afford, and he'll take?

lol!