moonslav59

I don't think we need any statement from Betts saying he isn't likely to come back here for most fans to understand trading him is the right thing to do, assuming we've offered a reasonable deal and we are 10-15 down in July..

I could see JBJ & JD traded this winter and Betts in July, but I think my original prediction is more likely.

If we're talking about just the biggest contracts given to pitchers over 30 or 31/32, IMO there are too many that worked out well or okay to use the word "always". It's not like there are hundreds and hundreds of bad big deals for aging pitchers. There are certainly some real duds, especially in the early days of free agency. How many of these do you think were bad to awful? How many were okay? How many were good to great? Highest paid pitchers of all time (some were under 30 when signed): Starting pitchers The highest-paid starting pitchers, by average annual value: 1. Justin Verlander, $33,000,000 (2020-21) 2. Zack Greinke, $32,500,000 (2016-21) (reduced for deferrals) 3. David Price, $31,000,000 (2016-22) … Clayton Kershaw, $31,000,000 (2019-21) 5. Clayton Kershaw, $30,714,286 (2014-20) 6. Max Scherzer, $30,000,000 (2015-21) 7. Jacob deGrom, $27,500,000 (2019-23) 8. Jon Lester, $25,833,333 (2015-20) 9. Justin Verlander, $25,714,286 (2013-19) 10. Chris Sale, $25,600,000 (2020-24) 11. Felix Hernandez, $25,000,000 (2013-19) … Stephen Strasburg, $25,000,000 (2017-23) … Jake Arrieta, $25,000,000 (2018-20) 14. Zack Greinke, $24,500,000 (2013-18) 15. CC Sabathia, $24,400,000 (2012-16) 16. Cole Hamels, $24,000,000 (2013-18) … Cliff Lee, $24,000,000 (2011-15) 18. Patrick Corbin, $23,333,333 (2019-24) 19. CC Sabathia, $23,000,000 (2009-15) 20. Johan Santana, $22,916,667 (2008-13) 21. Masahiro Tanaka, $22,142,857 (2014-20) 22. Jordan Zimmermann, $22,000,000 (2016-20) 23. Johnny Cueto, $21,666,667 (2016-21) 24. Matt Cain, $21,250,000 (2012-17) 25. Yu Darvish, $21,000,000 (2018-23) 26. Rick Porcello, $20,625,000 (2016-19) 27. Tim Lincecum, $20,250,000 (2012-13) 28. Roy Halladay, $20,000,000 (2011-13) 29. Adam Wainwright, $19,500,000 (2014-18) 30. James Shields, $18,750,000 (2015-18) 31. Carlos Zambrano, $18,300,000 (2008-12) 32. Roger Clemens, $18,000,000 (2005) . . . Barry Zito, $18,000,000 (2007-13) . . . Jeff Samardzija, $18,000,000 (2016-20) 35. Tim Lincecum, $17,500,000 (2014-15) . . . Homer Bailey, $17,500,000 (2014-19) 37. Jake Peavy, $17,333,333 (2010-12) 38. Josh Beckett, $17,000,000 (2011-14) . . . Jered Weaver, $17,000,000 (2012-16) . . . Nathan Eovaldi, $17,000,000 (2019-22) . . . Miles Mikolas, $17,000,000 (2019-23) 42. A.J. Burnett, $16,500,000 (2009-13) . . . John Lackey, $16,500,000 (2010-14) 44. Andy Pettitte, $16,000,000 (2007) . . . Andy Pettitte, $16,000,000 (2008) . . . Justin Verlander, $16,000,000 (2010-14) . . . Anibal Sanchez, $16,000,000 (2013-17) . . . Hiroki Kuroda, $16,000,000 (2014) . . . John Lackey, $16,000,000 (2016-17) . . . Scott Kazmir, $16,000,000 (2016-18) . . . Rich Hill, $16,000,000 (2017-19) 52. Jason Schmidt, $15,666,667 (2007-09) 53. Jake Arrieta, $15,637,500 (2017) 54. Felix Hernandez, $15,600,000 (2010-14) 55. C.J. Wilson, $15,500,000 (2012-16) 56. Max Scherzer, $15,250,000 (2014) 57. Mike Hampton, $15,125,000 (2001-08) 58. Kevin Brown, $15,000,000 (1999-2005) . . . Derek Lowe, $15,000,000 (2009-12) . . . Hiroki Kuroda, $15,000,000 (2013) . . . Hisashi Iwakuma, $15,000,000 (2016-18) 62. Roy Oswalt, $14,600,000 (2007-11) 63. Mark Buehrle, $14,500,000 (2012-15) . . . Jake Peavy, $14,500,000 (2013-14) 65. Mark Buehrle, $14,000,000 (2008-11) . . . David Price, $14,000,000 (2014)

I never said the winningest teams always win, but there is a clear correaltion, and it's not "anecdotal evidence." You can argue my sample size is too small, maybe, but I am trying to capture the state of MLB today not many years ago. Go ahead and throw out the wild card game and make it the top 4 vs the bottom 4, and if it was a pure "crap shoot" (not that you are saying it is a 100% crap shoot), you'd expect something close to a 50% break down of WS attendees and winners. 66% of the teams that go to the WS are top 4. That's is pretty far from 50-50. Yes, it's closer to 50-50 than 100-0, but it is clearly a significant correlation. The 73% winning it all number, which could be 75%, if the Astros win this year is what I was really arguing, and winning it all is very far from a crap shoot. 73% (11 of the last 15) is a very clear correlation.

Baaahhhhh Hummm bug. Not one person on the board has said BA is not at all significant. I think I'd have remembered that, and it would have caused an uproar. People have said it is not as important as OBP or SLG or other stats or metrics, but never "not at all significant."

My top 10 (not that I know more than soxprospects.com): 1. Casas 2. Mata 3. Ward 4. Dalbec 5. Jimenez 6. Groome 7. Chatham 8. Houck 9. Song 10. Padron-Artiles

I'm sure that's part of the potential calculation. I hope they are right. We could use a SP'er from the farm. It's been a while.

Maybe he should be number 3.

I see two possibilities: 1) Our farm is so weak, we have to put a totally unproven, operated on player in our 3 slot. 2) He is really good and just need to prove it.

The Fall soxprospects.com rankings are out: https://soxprospects.com (Note: Chavis & DHern graduated, so + 2 is essentially staying even) 1. Casas 2. Mata +8 from April 3. Groome +3 4. Jimenez +12 5. Dalbec -1 6. Duran +7 7. Houck -2 8. Noah Song (NR) 9. Chatham -1 10. T Ward (NR) 11. R Zeferajahn (NR) 12. Aldo Ramirez (NR) 13. Matthew Lugo (NR) 14. Chris Murphey (NR) 15. N Decker -3 16. Cameron Cannon (NR) 17. Brayan Bello (NR) 18. Antoni Flores -11 19. Ceddanne Rafaela (NR) 20. Marcus Wilson (NR) Other notables: 24. Feltman 27. Shawaryn 32. Fitzgerald 42. D Reyes 45. Ockimey 52. K Hart 58. Yusniel Padron-Artiles

We might be tight on every dollar. He really does not offer us the two things we might need: 1) A bridge to 2021 player 2) A longer term player as part of the rebuilding A third could be added: Innings needed.

I thought the same thing. This guy is always hurt. He's worse than Buchholz.

There is room for all of them, and I doubt some of these guys would be picked and need to be protected.

MLBTR The Reds discussed Jackie Bradley, Jr. with the Red Sox last offseason, relays the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Bobby Nightengale. While there’s no indication talks progressed very far or have picked up since, it’s still noteworthy to hear Cincinnati’s front office liked the player not too long ago. Bradley’s one of the offseason’s most obvious trade candidates, as we’ve already heard rumblings Boston would shop him this winter to ameliorate payroll concerns. MLBTR’s Connor Byrne recently explored Bradley’s market in full and noted that the Reds have some uncertainty in center field if they believe Nick Senzel to be more valuable at second base. Bradley didn’t have a banner 2019 season and comes with a rather significant arbitration projection ($11MM), but the free agent market in center field isn’t particularly robust.

Yes. Same with JBJ.

Look at the 40 man roster. I see about 18 guys that will almost certainly be here next year. Maybe 5-7 more will likely be here. Maybe 3-5 of the rest wilkl still be here. That leaves about 10-12 openings. I'm thinking, "Why not?" He kills RHPs, and we may need a DH and 1Bman, next year. If we think he won't be selected, we may not protect him, but I don't see anyone in danger of being selected by us keeping Ockimey, instead.

It's really a shame as he was on his way to a career year before the injury. He admitted he tried to rush back too quickly. You may be right about non tendering him, but the Sox did get a short look at the end of the year and may have seen something encouraging. His velocity was very low, but he only pitched in 2 games in September.

2020 Forty Man Roster Look (Listed by seniority on the 40 man roster) Red= May not be on 40 Man Roster next year Pedroia (Can place on 60 day IL next year) Vazquez Bradley (May be non tendered or traded) Workman Bogaerts Betts (May be traded) Hembree (May be non tendered or traded) Barnes Rodriguez Johnson (May be traded) M Hernandez Price Benintendi Sale Velazquez (May be traded) Travis (May be traded) Lin Devers Martinez (May opt out or be traded) Poyner (May be traded or non tendered) Walden Brasier Eovaldi Brewer Chavis Lakins Taylor DHernandez Reyes Leon (may be traded or non tendered) Weber Shawaryn Kelley Cashner Centeno JChacin Rule 5 Christopher Acosta Fabian Andrade Yoan Aybar Roldani Baldwin Eduard Bazardo Gary Calvo Marino Campana Pedro Castellanos Rusney Castillo CJ Chatham Jake Cosart Ricardo Cubillan Bobby Dalbec Enmanuel De Jesus Chad De La Guerra Jhonathan Diaz Jerry Downs Devon Fisher Matthew Gorst Kyle Hart Trenton Kemp Matt Kent Adam Lau Nick Lovullo Everlouis Lozada Tate Matheny Samuel Miranda Oddanier Mosqueda Josh Ockimey Angel Padron Yorvin Pantoja Keibert Petit Roniel Raudes Austin Rei Hildemaro Requena Jeremy Rivera Kleiber Rodriguez Jake Romanski Jagger Rusconi Alberto Schmidt Andrew Schwaab Nick Sciortino Kevin Steen Cole Sturgeon Kervin Suarez Luke Tendler Josh Tobias Marcus Wilson

We have a good chance at getting a lot younger, next year. Here were our oldest players this season: 36 Pearce- gone 35 Pedroia- not part of our long term plans 34 Wright- gone 33 Moreland- gone 33 Price- 3 years undercontract 32 Nunez- gone 32 Cashner- gone 31 Holt- likely gone 31 JD- may opt out or be traded 31 Gorkys Hernandez- gone 31 R Brasier- probably not part of our long term plans 31 Josh Smith- gone 31 J Chacin- who knows? 30 Porcello- likely gone 30 Leon- maybe gone

Never say "always." Verlander's last deal worked out. Scherzer is 35. Greinke's deal does not look all that bad. He's 36. Lester. Some of the shorter deals given to old pitchers have worked great. Clemens in 2005. Sure, there's a longer list of failures, but "always" is a strong word.

Luck does play a role, and sometimes teams that played poorly most of the year get it together or make a big trade and actually get better than their record indicates, but the larger aspect of who wins is who is better. The better teams have a better chance of winning a 5 or 7 game series.

That just can't be true. Show me that data. (Look, I mentioned wins are not necessarily the best way to set the true rankings of who were the best teams making the playoffs, but the numbers I presented alone, shows a very cleat correlation between season wins and postseason wins. The numbers are clear.)

I think we non tender or trade JBJ and maybe Hembree. We go into 2020 just under the line, and if we look like we might compete, we might add some salary and go for it. If we look bad, we'll trade JD & Betts in July. This plan might also sell more season tickets.

We might be able to trade JD, Betts & JBJ for some decent ML ready and younger talent and then makes some free agent signings that are either to bridge us to the rebuilt team or are part of the longer term future. We could spend just enough to reset and be pretty good- certainly not as good as a team with a healthy Betts, JD and JBJ but still pretty good.

Why it's Brian Johnson! Or, Hector Velazquez. Or, DHern, Shawaryn or Houck. Somebody was swearing Weber was the man after one start.