moonslav59

What constitutes something being called a "strength?" Is it just being above average or above the mean? Is being top 10 out of 30 teams? Our pen ranks top 10 in just about every meaningful measure. In several important categories we are top 3 or 4. (We're #1 in K/9 rate.) We are not top 10 in Save %. We rank 26th at 53%. However, our pen is 2nd in inherited runner scoring % at 25%, and we are 7th in Holds. If the question is, "Has our pen been a top 10 pen, so far this year?" I'd answer yes. To me, that makes it a "strength" to date. Going forward, I have a different opinion. I think our pen needs a solid addition or two, and the sooner the better, especially if Hembree is not coming back. If Eovaldi is not coming back, we could use a solid addition there as well. Saves + Holds 75 NYY (10 BS) 69 TBR (9 BS) 58 BOS (16 BS)

2018 vs 2019 Improving OPS +254 Vaz +133 Devers +101 Moreland +71 Leon +45 Bogey +18 Holt Declining OPS -42 Beni -43 JBJ -106 Nunez -123 JD -228 Betts -398 Pearce

Top Sox OPS 2018 and 2019 2018 in RED 150+ PAs 1.078 Betts 1.031 JD .928 Bogey .908 JD .901 Pearce (165 PAs) .883 Bogey .864 Devers .859 Moreland (174) .830 Beni .799 Chavis .794 Vaz .778 Beni .774 Holt .758 Moreland .731 Devers .717 JBJ .708 HRam (195) .677 Nunez .676 JBJ .613 Swihart .604 Kinsler(143) .582 Leon (88) .561 Nunez (134) .540 Vaz .511 Leon While 4 of the top 6 hitters were in 2018, we have way less on the low end, this year. Only 3 of the bottom 13 are from 2019.

I remember differently, when last winter, I was questioning Happ and CC. You kept bringing up Happ's great, recent numbers.

By my methodology: Starters 16-22 Relievers 25-13 It's not even close to date.

League rankings: Stat Pen-- SP I P 7th- 14th WAR 6th- 8th ERA- 5th- 13th WHIP 11th- 14th xFIP- 6th- 7th K/BB 9th- 5th K/9 1st- 5th The only category our starters have outperformed our pen is K/BB. All of this being said, I'd rather see us trade for a solid pen arm than a starter. My only point is that, so far, our pen has helped us win more games and avoid losing more games that our rotation. This does not mean the same will be true going forward. Our starters have improved a lot, and if Eovaldi returns our rotation should be fine going forward.

The Yankee rotation has been bad, at times, this year. Their pen has been great. Just because our pen has not been as good as theirs does not mean it's ourpen's fault we are 7 down. Our pen has been a net plus this year. Our offense has lost more games than our pen, despite being among the league leaders in runs scored. Our starters have improved greatly since the first 3-4 weeks, but they have not been responsible for most of our wins as compared to our pen. We seem to remember the blown saves a lot more than the 7.9 IP 0 ER games from our pen. My analysis of each game may be flawed in several ways, but the conclusion is so stark, it is hard to think a different methodology would flip the script. Here's another look: Our pen is 7th in IP, so they've been used more than most teams, including the Yanks by over 21 innings. Rankings WAR 1. NYY 3.6 3. TBR 3.4 6. BOS 2.9 ERA- 3. TBR 80 5. BOS 82 6. NYY 86 WHIP 7. TBR 1.24 8. NYY 1.25 11. BOS 1.30 xFIP- 1. NYY 86 6. BOS 92 9. TBR 97 K/BB 5. NYY 2.87 9. BOS 2.69 11. TBR 2.66 K/9 1. BOS 10.6 2. NYY 10.2 23. TBR 8.9 Our pen has been clearly a plus any way you look at it, except BS, of which we have had a few games where we've had 2-3 Blown Saves within them. Now, the Starters: (Whileour SP'er do look better than the Yanks, and their pen looks better than ours, when you compare them to the league, as a whole, our pen holds up nicely to our rotation.) IP 14. BOS 396 21. NYY 377 29. TBR 332 WAR 3. TBR 8.7 8. BOS 7.5 11. NYY 6.8 8. BOS ERA- 2. TBR 67 (way less IP) 8. NYY 87 13. BOS 95 (about average) WHIP 2. TBR 1.04 8. NYY 1.23 14. BOS 1.26 (about average) xFIP- 1. TBR 76 7. BOS 91 9. NYY 94 K/BB 3. TBR 4.0 5. BOS 3.5 8. NYY 3.3 K/9 2. TBR 10.1 5. BOS 9.6 8. NYY 8.9 Clearly, our pen has been much better than the average MLB team, and our Starters have been much closer to average than most teams. Comparing us to the Yanks, who have a great pen and not so great SP'ers, and then blaming our losses more on the pen is misleading.

Since game 59... (Note: the offense is not factored into this analysis. Wins and losses are attributed to the SP'er or the pen based mostly on ERA.) 60: W8-3 KCR: ERod put us in a hole 2-0, but we scored 3 in the 6th to get him the win: SP 5.2 2 ER/ RP 3.1 1ER - Slight edge to RP 61: W 8-0 KCR: Chris Sale pitched shut out: SP all the way. 62: W 7-5 KCR: Pen game. Weber started (1.1 IP 2 ER). The pen: 7.2 IP 3 ER. Pen gets the win. 63: L 5-1 TBR: Porcello 6 IP 4 ER/ Pen 3 IP 1 ER: loss edge to SP 64: L 9-2 TBR: Josh Smith (4 IP 4 ER)/ Pen 5 IP 4 ER- 4 in 9th after game was already lost) Edge loss to SP. 65: W 5-1 TBR: Price 6 IP 1 ER/ Pen 3 IP 0 ER: Win goes to both. (+0.5) 66: L 6-1 TBR: ERod 5.2 IP 4 ER/ Pen 4.1 IP 2 ER: Loss goes to SP 67: L 4-3 TEX: Sale 7 IP 0ER/ Pen 4 IP 3 ER: Loss goes to pen. 68: L 9-5 TEX: DHerm 3 IP 3 ER/ Pen 6 IP 5 ER: I'll call this a tie loss. 69: W 4-3 TEX: Porcello 6.2 IP 2 ER/ Pen 2.1 IP 0 ER: Edge to pen. 70: W 7-6 TEX: Price 1.1 IP 6 ER/ Pen 7.9 IP 0 ER: Clear win to pen 100%! 71: W 13-2 BAL: ERod 7 IP 1 ER/ Pen 2 IP 1 ER: Clear win for SP. 72: W 7-2 BAL: Sale 6IP 2 ER/ Pen 2 IP 0 ER: Edge to RP 73: W 8-6 BAL in 10: Johnson 3 IP 1 ER/ Pen 7 IP 3 ER. Edge to SP despite just 3 IP. 74: W 2-0 MN: Porcello 7 IP 0 ER/ Pen 2 IP 0 ER. SP gets win. 75: L 4-3 MN (17 inn): Price 5 IP 1 ER/Pen 11.1 3 ER. Pen gets loss. 76: W 9-4 MN: ERod 7 IP 4 ER/ Pen 2 IP 0 ER: Win to pen. Last 17 games: Wins: 6.5 Pen 4.5 Pen Losses: 3.5 SP 2.5 Pen Net: +1.0 SP +4.0 Pen All 76 games: Wins 16 SP 25 RP Losses 22 SP 13 RP Net: -6 SP +13 RP

I went through the first 59 games- one by one- and found our pen did better than the starters way more times. 29 Losses: 18.5 are more the starter's fault 10.5 are more the reliever's fault 30 Wins: 11.5 are more due to the starter 18.5 are more due to the reliever Net: SP: -7.0 RP: +8.0

Using just ERA and BS as a measure for RP'ers is not what I would use. RP'ers often come in with 1-2 outs, so their ERA is skewed by not needing to get 3 outs an inning. Even ERA- or ERA+ is better and we are 5th in ERA-. Our pen has been a strength, so far. That says nothing about going forward. Yes, I hope they do well going forward, but I would not bet on it. Comparing us to the best pen in MLB (perhaps MLB history) is not a good comp. Every team would pale vs their numbers. Compare us to the league average, and you'll see we are a clear plus. Not great but much better than average.

Going forward, I would not view our pen as a strength, especially if Hembree never returns to 2019 form, but up to this point our pen has clearly been on the plus side of the ledger. It's been a strength, and every number I call valuable shows us in the top 10 with several in the top 3 to 5 in MLB.

Kelly was out number 2 RP'er at this point last year and in the playoffs, but you are right, he wasn't really our #2 all year.

Also,... Yoan Moncada .864 in 281 PAs (12 HRs and 40 rbi @ 162 gms=29 HRs & 98 rbi) Mauricio Dubon .922 in AAA last year (27 games) .819 in AAA this year (67 games) Travis Shaw .570 this year (192 PAs) after two .800 plus seasons with Milwaukee. Jalen Beeks (Eovaldi trade) 2.73 ERA in 56 IP (1.27 WHIP) Ty Buttrey (Kinsler trade) 2.02 ERA in 36 IP (1.21 WHIP & 10.6 K/9) Frankie Montas (Peavy trade) 9-2 2.85 in 82 IP (1.18 WHIP & 9.7 K/9) Basabe (AZ) .837 in A+ (224 PAs) Basabe (CWS) .817 in A (24 PAs) .600 in AA (133)

...and pretty much FT 2 DH's.

I agree, and making sure JD DH's as much as possible is also a key component to keeping his back from acting up. (If we had gotten EE...)

Only in light of the quotes from Cora and Price after the game, and the fact that Price struggled his last outting and may have been gassed or not feeling right. We can't afford to lose Price. If he needs to be "babied" for a short stretch, then Cora is 100% right to do what needs to be done. As for our pen since June 1st.... 3rd in IP (thanks to so many extra inning games) 3rd in WAR +0.9 1st in K/9 at 11.0 5th in ERA- at 70 5th in SIERA at 3.65 6th in LOB% at 79.3% 12th in WHIP at 1.30 (All this with a .304 BAbip that ranks 10th highest.) For the season as a whole: T6th in WAR at 2.9 (just 0.7 from the #1 Yanks) 5th in ERA- at 82 7th in xFIP at 4.17 11th in WHIP at 1.30 1st in K/9 at 10.5 6th in LOB% at 76% 9th in K/BB at 2.69 The funny thing is, almost all these numbers are better than the Kimbrel-Kelly led pen of 2018.

What happened to you high hopes for Happ? I remember when I mentioned his age has increased the chances he's due for a decline and possibly a steep one, you poo-poo'd the idea. Your everyday players and pen are solid-- more than solid. Only the rotation can keep you guys from being the playoff favorites. My guess is, you guys go very big for a top SP'er like Scherzer.

Let's hope he's right and not just saying this to help bring it to fruition.

I agree. I don't always fully agree with him, but he has been spot on and very insightful, of late.

I've seen glimpses, but not for any prolonged period of time. Maybe "it" will come: maybe not, but maybe with a little tweak to the pitching staff, we can put together a long stretch of dominance that will convince us all we are a top contender. Max, every year is a "longshot" when you have 3-5 really good teams and 3-5 part time contenders every year. Last year was a longshot. I remember posters giving up on our team multiple times last year- often with the same comments I'm reading now: "We can't beat the good teams." "We can't beat good pitching." "Our pen is horrible compared to ______." "We can't win without Sale." "Price is a playoff choke." "Kelly shouldn't make the playoff roster." and on and on... Let's keep the faith my brothers. (I don't need to say sisters because Kimmi is a true believer.) We have more than half the season to go. I know it looks bleak with all the Yankees healthy, now, but stranger things have happened, and our team has the horses to make a strong run for the division title, and if we fall short, I like our rotation against any team in a short series with days off left and right. We have a better defense with the improved Devers at 3B. Our catcher and 2B positions are no longer "black holes" at the plate. Bogey & Devers are having career years. A tweak to the staff and rebounds from Betts & JD should be enough to make us a top 3-4 contender. That's all we can ask. Then lady lucky and timely hitting & pitching decides the rest.

Great win all around. Some key hits. Patient batters (10 BBs). Erod did what it took. The pen came through. Day off. 6 games at Fenway (TOR & CWS) Then, off to London to beat up on the Yanks.

We should probably not see any more blown saves either.

Holt is the man!

They'll trade for a top SP'er at some point this summer.

ERod is one of the few Sox SP'ers who doesn't seem to mind who catches him (Porcello, too): Career CERA ERod with 3.78 Hannigan 4.09 Leon 4.24 Vaz 4.44 Swihart Porcello with 4.06 Leon 4.17 Avila 4.25 Vaz 4.32 Laird 4.93 Swihart 5.38 Holaday Price 2.85 JMolina 2.75 Leon 3.06 Jaso 3.61 Shoppach 4.20 Vaz Sale 2.41 Leon 2.51 Pierzynski 2.98 Navarro 3.02 Flowers 3.53 Avila 4.37 Vaz