moonslav59
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Everything posted by moonslav59
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The extension was not part of the trade. I still love the trade, now, because we won a ring. Sure, I wish we still had Moncada & Kopech, but a ring is a ring.
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I'm not sure it was even a choice, at the time. We needed Beni for the "window." It's interesting to see that Moncada + Kopech have a "trade value" of over $150M. One wonders what sort of numbers these two will put up, but I loved the trade, and still do. After all, we got... Chris Freakin' Sale!
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Should be a fun playoff, this year.
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Here's how I see the top 15 going into the final week: 1. Ohio St. 12-0 2. LSU 12-0 3. Clemson 12-0 4. Georgia 11-1 5. Oklahoma 11-1 6. Utah 11-1 7. Baylor 11-1 8. Alabama 10-2 9. Penn St. 10-2 10. Florida 10-2 11. Wisconsin 10-2 12. Auburn 9-3 13. Notre Dame 10-2 14. Oregon 10-2 15. Memphis 11-1 Next week: Georgia vs LSU (If LSU wins, Oklahoma can squeeze in. LSU should be in, even if they lose.) Ohio St. vs Wisconsin (OSU is in- win or lose.) Virginia vs Clemson (Clemson might be squeezed out with a loss.) Oklahoma vs Baylor (The winner of OKL v Baylor could make it if Clemson loses and will make it if DA loses.) Utah vs Oregon (I can't see Utah making it, even if GA and OK lose.) Memphis vs Cincy (No chance- just playing for a better bowl.)
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Glad to see Alabama out of the playoffs, for once!
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This Alabama-Auburn game is a classic! The rest of today was a bit of a drag.
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At least there's college football to watch while we wait for some fresh, hot stove news.
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Not unless we see some "outgoing" along with the "incoming."
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Hmmm...
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Being tight-lipped might be an advantage.
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I'd trade Beni for Moncada in a heartbeat.
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Betts has one year of team control: Devers has 4, including 1 more pre-arb! No way I trade Ra-fay!
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Trade simulator values the Sox top players as such: $Millions 127.2 Devers 90.6 Bogaerts 50.0 Betts 35.9 Beni 28.0 ERod 24.6 Barnes 24.5 Casas 22.9 Vazquez 18.8 Dalbec 17.7 Chavis 14.0 Duran 13.7 Mata 10.6 D Hernandez 6.6 Jimenez 6.0 JD Martinez 5.8 Taylor 5.8 Walden 5.3 Song 5.3 Workman 4.6 Lugo 4.4 Ward 4.3 Groome 3.6 Decker 3.3 Houck & Cannon 2.9 Flores 2.5 Gonzalez 2.3 Diaz & Howlett 2.2 Lopez 2.1 Northcut 2.0 JBJ
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While Bogey's deal was no where near 10 years, he still has a net plus value of $90.6.
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I kind of expected some feedback from this post, so here it is again. Value wise, this site says Dalbec, Chavis and Duran would be the same trade value needed to trade for Betts ($50M).
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The trade simulator says he's worth $50M, while he's getting paid about $28M. I get the low risk- 1 year number, but the number represents a net plus $50M, meaning they think he's really worth about $78M in 2020. That number is certainly debatable, but if he's worth anywhere near that in 2020, one has to think he'd be worth a lot in 2021, 2022 and 2023. He'd likely be worth more than $33M a year in 2024, 2025 & 2026. He might be worth near $33M in 2027 and maybe 2028. He may be worth less in 2028, 2029 and 2030.
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It will be interesting to see what Betts's trade value is the day after he signs.
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The trade simulator says he's worth +$50M despite being projected to make $28M. That's $78M. Why are people afraid to pay him $35M for 9-10 years? He's worth double that for the first few years. That will more than make up for the end years.
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Let's say we offer $320M/10 and someone else offers $340/10. That $28M could be used to keep Betts by countering with $341M.10 (in theory).
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That might be enough to sign this guy named Porcello everyone wants.
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Right. The 30% "difference" would amount to about $12M not $20M, then year 2 would be $8M (30% not 50%). The total savings might max out at about $28M over the 2 years after the reset, assuming we get right up to the max line two years in a row without going over. That's less than I suggested but still very significant.
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The reset is more about the following years- Betts or no Betts. The tax goes from 50% to zero in 2020 and 50% to 20% in 2021 and 30% in 2022. All totaled it could amount to more than $30M over 3 years, which could be the difference between us keeping Betts or not-m or signing an "extra" FA to $10M x 3 years. That's significant enough to be a goal to achieve,if not a "mandate." If the plan might involve going $39M over in 2021, that's about $20M in savings in just one year. Remember, if we keep Betts in 2020 and try to resign him for 2021 ans beyond, let's say for $35M a year, it's just adding about $7M a year oiver his arb contract of 2020. Using the $39M over mark, we could re-sign Betts and have $20M to spend on other FAs for 2021. We then look to see Pedey and others dropping off the rolls in the following years.
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Yes, the mandate is 2020, and any little bit helps, but we'll still have issues in 2021 and 2022. My guess is Henry will allow us to go over after the reset but not by enough to go over the max line (maybe not even the second line), and if we want to re-sign Betts or replace him "in kind," we'll need some space in 2021. This trade would greatly improve the 2021 and 2022 tax budget landscape.
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It would for '21 & '22
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Yes, I understood that to be the case, but Seatlle would need the actual payments in 2021 ans 2022.
