moonslav59

One wonders if JBJ could play just 1 game, then get red hot.

The Yanks have all those guys returning plus the replacements that did very well, last year. It's hard to spin that to a negative, but I commend your attempt. They will be massive favorites after they sign Cole or Stasburg.

1. E-Rod continues to perform like a 20 win starter. Check 2. The offensive core of Betts / JD / Devers / Bogaerts has to perform like it has the past two years (which guys are hot doesn't matter as much; it seems to average out). Check 3. Sale, Price, and Eovaldi overall make at least 80 starts and pitch to a decent 4.00 ERA 80 starts, yes, they need to reach this but likely will not. They'd need better than 4.00 to get us another ring. 4. The 5th starter ends up being a pleasant surprise. If 3 happens at 3.50 ERA, we can do without a good 5th starter. 5. The bullpen really only needs one more effective arm than it had last year to make a big difference. We need repeats from Workman, Taylor & Walden, a return to form from Barnes, and only then we might need only 1 more decent arm. More likely, we need 2-3 more arms or DHern to shine. 6. The first and second base options are strong on defense and are decent bottom of the order contributors. Very doubtful we get this without going way over the luxury tax line. 7. JBJ, if he's still here, doesn't get to play until like July except as a defensive replacement. He actually heats up on May 21st or 22nd- every year since 2016. 2017: .637 on May 20th, then went 2-5 and was at .650 by May 26th and .700 by May 28th. He was over .750 by June 1st and .800 by June 12th. 2018: .519 on May 21st, then went 2-4 and was at .600 on May 31st, .650 by the end of July and .700 by the end of August. 2019: .443 on May 21st, then went 2-4 and was at .500 in 2 days, .550 by May 28th, .600 the next day, .650 by June 13th and .700 by June 23rd. Waiting until July would miss his hottest streaks.

I get the problem, but I find it interesting how you stated the financial issue. To me Sale is a push. We have 2 bad super big contracts (both could turn plus or close to even) and 2 good ones. It's not the end of the world. We can win in 2020 without JBJ, and that is all we have to trade to reset. We could trade some salary, like Price, and not get worse. We could use those saving to fill some key gaps with low cost deals. It's not easy, and I know our odds don't look good for 2020, but there's still a sliver of hope.

Rule 5 Possibilities https://thesportsdaily.com/2019/11/27/10-players-available-in-the-rule-5-draft-to-keep-an-eye-on/ Top prospects in the 2019 Rule 5 Draft WWW.MLB.COM On Wednesday, teams had to decide which of their prospects merited placement on 40-man rosters. Unprotected prospects are subject to the Rule 5 Draft at the Winter Meetings if they signed by age 18 and have completed five pro seasons, or if they signed at age 19 or older and

Just 2 guys- Price and Eovaldi are a "ton" while two guys, JD and Bogey, are "only two guys." Price and Eovaldi may give us half to 3/4 of their contract cost. It's even possible they earn their full cost- not likely but possible. We also have Devers, Beni, Vaz, ERod and others earning way more than their costs. We have a nice core.

I'd be fine with Broxton. He won't cost as much as Marisnik did, either.

If we trade Betts for vets or ML ready prospects, then it not a 2020 "white flag." While we had injuries last year, the Yanks had way more, so expecting us to pass them, next year, especially after they sign Cole or Stasburg is really a stretch. It's not impossible, but I'm leaning towards maximizing our turn-around by beginning sooner rather than later. Reset in 2020 and go all out for 2021 or 2022 more likely.

I see your point, but I just don't think all the things that need to go right will. Although we still won despite Sale & Kimbrel not helping much in the playoffs, they were essential to us getting to the playoffs. Kimbrel & Kelly are gone. Workman may be a good replacement for Kelly, but we're still short in the pen. Sale's outlook for 2020 is worse than 2018. Price's, too. Eovaldi's, too. No Porcello. No Moreland, Holt & Nunez. It's not really the same team. Most of the bid names are still here, but they are not the same. Can they be? Maybe. Should we wait to see before dismantling the team? Probably. Will we wait? Probably. Will we all come together for one last hurrah? Highly unlikely. (Just my opinions.)

No, it's unproven quality, but never the less, it has tangible trade value. Even "proven" vets are a risk, though, and there's a certain amount of potential value or loss of value attached to them, too. It's like the posters who champion the Pomeranz trade, because Espinoza has not amounted to squat, so far. The kid had enormous value, back then. It might have been used to trade for someone else. It might have been used within our own system had he not gotten hurt. We traded Buttrey for a proven quality. We traded Beeks for Eovaldi.

That is true. Even the years they went to the WS and lost, it was surprising- 1967 more than any. I did think we had a good shot after the Nomar trade in 2004. I liked our 2007 team, but after losing in 2005 and 2006, I wasn't super confident. I thought we were playing it "halfway" (the term I used back then) in 2013. That was a surprise, but the whole "perfect storm" argument is not really true. The fact is many players had better seasons in 2012 or 2014. I loved our 2018 club and was a believer from day 1. The fact that our current team is not much different from 2018, other than injury histories, does make a strong argument for not "blowing things up," so that's what I think we'll just trade JBJ this winter, look to reset, but wait to the deadline to decide to make one last push or trade 3-4 vets.

I'd be fine with Broxton, but he's never had an .800+ season. He hasn't been over .719 since his first season. He has a .565 OPS the last 2 years. While Jake's is not great (.689), it's much better than that!

I'll say one thing, all of those 4 teams had starting pitchers than no team from the previous 3 decades had.

Yes, and potential have real value. Look what some teams can get for that potential.

Yes, they have one of the deepest rosters in MLB, if not THE deepest. In all liklihood, they might be looking for a 2 or 3 for 1 deal the other way, so they can add some prospects to the 40 man roster or sign a vet to an area of need without having to DFA a talented player/prospect.

They say minus $60. The thing about Price is that he still pitches every year. He might have had more IP'd this year had we been in the race. While 109 IP is not good, he's had just one season under that in his whole career (2017). While 282 IP over the past 2 years sucks, within the context of MLB, he placed 70th in IP. If you figure there are 150 rotation slots in MLB (30 teams x 5 pitchers), he's above the mean.

He's cheap. He's a great defensive OF'er. He's got a .728 OPS over the last 3 years- about the same as JBJ's. Yes, there are plenty of players like him out there. I bring his name up a lot, because I live in Houston and like his style of play and his grit. I'd be fine with us obtaining someone like him while saving $8-10M, assuming we deal JBJ.

The Rays save maybe about $5M on the deal.

Like with the Yanks this year? There are many ways to win. The Royals proved you can win with only a great pen as their only clear strength. Other teams have shown they can win with great pens or rotations or line-ups. Most winners are pretty good to very good at 2-3 of the 4 major categories. Some have won by being plus at all 4. Too many people say, "You can't win with a weak _____," but it's just not true.

I do think Price has more value than many give to him. Sure, he's not worth $96M/3, but he'd probably get $42-48M/3 on this current open market.

Pineda is signing with the Twins for $20M/2. Wheeler just signed for $118/5. Makes men wonder,if there are any bargain deals out therefor SP'ers. What will Porcello make? 2017-2019 WAR Pitcher (IP) 9.2 Wheeler (464) 6.9 T Roark(527) 6.2 Porcello (569) 4.6 Cashner (470 4.5 J Chacin (476) 4.2 W Miley (405) 3.6 Pineda (242)

It's all good 5GG. That trade site isn't supposed to be used to evaluate who is better. It's about trade value, which includes alot of things beyond skilllevel. I'm not a big Shaughnessy fan,but I do agree this could very well turn into a "bridge year," but many felt like 2013 was a bridge year. (I thought dumping DD was the right thing very early,too.)

Tome, the trade simulator is just a fun way to throw trade ideas around. Looking at the Braves team,one can be blown away by the values placed on so many players and prospects they have: (Sox players in red) 200 Acuna 176 Albies 127 Devers 91 Bogaerts 79 Pache 70 Soroka 57 Waters 50 Devers 49 Riley 37 Freeman 36 Beni 32 Swanson 31 Anderson 28 ERod 25 Barnes 25 Casas 23 Vazquez 21 Wright 19 Dalbec 18 Chavis 16 Mata 15 Langeleriers 15 Muller 14 Shewmake 13 Newcomb 12 Toussaint 12 Duran 11 D Hernandez 10 Davidson

It's 'Acuna Matada for God's sake! Seriously though, his value is based on alot of positive things all adding into one massive number. He turns 22 soon and already has over 1200 PAs. He's got 9 years of team control at an ungodly low price: 20:$1M, 21:$5M, 22:$15M, 23:$17M, 24:$17M, 25:$17M, 26:$17M, 27:$17M club option ($10M buyout), 28:$17M club option. He has a career .897 OPS with 67 HRs in 1202 PAs. He became a plus UZR OF'erin 2019. When you look at the trade value of someone like Betts (50 value),who has just 1 year of team control and will be paid about $28M, one could argue it's Betts who has an inflated value not Acuna (200 value).

Speaking of the trade simulator, I think they have these Sox players rated too highly, so that's why I have involved them in a lot of trades (Or, I think they may be due for an decline year in 2020): Trade Value - Player 17.7 Chavis 12.1 Duran 5.8 Walden