moonslav59

I'm glad we face the guy we need to pass. They don't scare me.

I agree on not using Brasier in a high leverage situation for a while, but I think he had been doing well enough before last nights game to give him a try.

That's about what I'd expect the experts to say, but even those numbers are far better than .500.

We had a slightly better-than-average pen last year. We lost Kimbrel and Kelly and have had to pin our hopes on the likes of Workman, Walden and Hembree, and yet when our pen fails, some jump on Cora for mismanaging our pen.

Certainly not as bad as many predicted after the loss of Kimbrel & Kelly.

Can we agree that (overall) our pen has performed better than expected? If the answer is yes, can we give some credit to Cora for putting people in a better position to do well more often than not?

Assuming you have 2 guys up 1 and 2 with .380 OBPs, the chances your 3rd guy comes up with 2 outs and bases empty is still rather high. While the chances he comes up with one man on and one out of two men on with 2 outs is better than 50-50, it may not be enough to outweigh the none on occurences.

Based on just this year's numbers, something I would not do, here might be our best line-up based on your presented guideline: Best OPS+ and OBP 143 JD (.388) 136 Devers (.389) 136 Chavis (.376) 130 Betts (.400) 129 Bogey (.376) 124 Moreland (.320) 1. Devers 2. Chavis 3. Bogey 4. JD 5. Betts Adjusting a little for speed and OBP... 1. Betts (.400 is our best OBP) 2. Devers (2nd best OBP) 3. Bogey (5th best hitter) 4. JD (Best hitter and most power) 5. Chavis (2nd best OPS+ placed in 4th most important slot) 6. Moreland 7. Vazquez 8. Beni 9. JBJ

I'd bet we win 60+% of our games from now to the end, and I'm not a bettor.

I agree, but if we picked up a solid starter, I might consider it. I would not seek a starter just to make Eovaldi our closer.

I just turned 60 and became a Sox fan in the early 70's. Top Sox winning %: (200+ games) .631 Cora .621 Stahl .606 McCarthy .602 O'Neill 10. Francona .574 13. Dick Williams .545 15. Joe Cronin .539 Championships as a percent of full seasons coached: 100% Cora 25% Francona 20% Farrell

...and Beeks is a top 10 fWAR RP'er for the Rays. 4. Buttrey 1.1 9. Beeks 0.8 10. Walden 0.8

I'm not an expert on the talent of pitchers on other teams, but here are some pitchers who are off to a pretty good start, this year, and are on teams that may be sellers this summer: Pitcher- Team- WHIP- K/9 Alex Colome CWS 0.55/8.3 Will Smith SFG 0.77/13.1 Shane Greene DET 0.83/9.8 Trevor Gott SFG 0.83/9.4 Felix Pena LAA 0.84/9.4 Blaine Hardy DET 0.91/3.9 Jake Diekman KCR 0.91/13.3 Sam Dyson SFG 0.92/9.0 Ken Giles TOR 0.97/14.1 Hansel Robles LAA 0.99/9.3 Sam Gaviglio TOR 1.00/8.8 R. Stephenson CIN 1.00/12.6 Joe Biagini TOR 1.07/8.1 Ty Buttrey LAA 1.08/11.4 (Top 10 in RP'er fWAR) Possible sellers this summer: AZ: Yoan Lopez 0.81/6.0 CLE: Brad Hand 0.91/13.5 NYM: Seth Lugo 1.00/11.8, Edwin Diaz 1.05/14.3 Note: this list is based soley on the top WHIP RP'ers with 20+ IP this year. I'm not saying any of these guys are a good fit or can be acquired.

It's hard to know how much just one GM values Dalbec or Ockimey or Scherf or anyone not named D Hernandez, Chatham, Casas or Duran.

Maybe the costs have risen, but in recent years, we got... Eovaldi for Beeks Addison Reed for 3 scrubs (Bautista, Nogodek & Callahan) Is Dalbec any worse of a prospect than these were?

Can we agree that with a pen like ours, making pen choices is not an easy task. Just about anyone he calls on can be viewed skeptically.

I agree, and the idea of Eovaldi as a multi-inning RP'er in the playoffs looks very appealing... again. That being said, I still think we acquire a decent to solid pen arm this summer.

That's what I had in mind. I don't expect anyone wants Nunez and his salary at face value. Even, if we do a deal like what you suggest, we may still throw in some money to offset Nunez's overpay. The tricky part is that when you try to acquire a decent pitcher getting paid more money than he's worth or more than a losing team is willing to pay, they are NOT looking to take salary back. They are looking to dump salary. There may be just a very few teams willing to take on $3-6M of Nunez's salary just so they can take a flyer on Ockimey or Dalbec or some other promising prospect. I'd love to find a deal like this that might add $2-6M to our summer spending budget, so we can then acquire a better, more costly pitcher afterwards and stay under the $40M line.

Okay, I missed that, but someone did bring it to the top, right after our worst game in years.

A lot of moves a manager makes are "iffy," and there is a lot more that goes into each choice than we'll ever know. I'm not saying we can't say this move or that move was "wrong," especially if we say it before the results are in, but my own personal view is that I like the vast majority of moves Cora makes, and quite a few of the ones I disagreed with at the times they were made, ended up working out well. I guess I just don't feel any need to knit-pick every move a manager makes. Iffy moves sometimes work and sometimes they don't, and when they don't it doesn't necessarily mean it was a "bad move," since we never will know what might have happened if another move (or our choice of moves) was made. To me, Cora is a fantastic manager, and just because more of his moves have failed this year, doesn't change my opinion. Think of how many times Cora has brought in Walden, and it worked. Think about how nervous we were, when he brought him in earlier in the season. No way did any of us expect Walden to do this well. Was Cora a genius for depending on such an iffy guy for so long while it worked, or did a player just perform well? Now, Walden fails, and then the next guys failed, so Cora sucks. To me, our pen has performed way better than expected, but when they fail, it's all Cora's fault... not DD's...not Brasier's... not just bum luck. Cora's my guy all the way. He's the best Sox manager I have seen, although the sample size is certainly too small to defend that view. I think, in time, many will feel the same way I do, now.

$6.8M can be a lot at the deadline, since we will only owe about 1/3 of the 2019 salary of anyone we pick up. If we trade for someone now, we will owe about 2/3. I'm not sure how long we can wait.

I've already said I did not like the Lakins choice, and questioning how long he stuck with Brasier is fine, but "fire Cora?" I have zero issues with Cora. I'm still thrilled he is our manager, and I have no ill will over a few choices I happen to disagree with. He knows more than I do, and I trust him as our leader- 100% and then some.

Well said. I do remember a few times last year, several posters jumped off the bad wagon with force.

My comment was not directed at you, and in hindsight, the ST'ing "Restgate" seems to have failed miserably at this point in the season, but the plan was based on the idea that we'd have fresh arms when it really counts, so I think we should reserve judgment until that time comes and goes. Every manager makes mistakes, especially in hindsight. Brasier had gone his last 4 appearances (4 IP) without allowing a hit, walk or run. After least year's performance, I don't fault Cora for trying him in the 9th. I don't fault Cora for using Barnes in an earlier high leverage situation. Needing to call on Lakins might be more of a DD criticism than Cora, but I hated the choice, even before the bedlam. I'm glad it's a 162 game season, but last night felt like a sucker punch in the gut. We will move on. We will win. And, there's a good chance we will be hailing Cora as a genius after our back-to-back championship seasons.

Brasier was fantastic for us last year (second half call-up), and certainly he deserved a chance to show that wasn't a fluke. It looked like he might be coming around, before last night, as he had gone his last 4 outings (4 IP) without giving up a hit, walk or run. I don't blame Cora for trying him in the 9th, last night. The Lakins choice was highly questionable. Even Walden, who had been our rock, stumbled at the worst time. Pens are hard to predict. If I'd have told everyone that these guys would have these numbers near the end of May, you'd think our pen must be great: OPS Against as a RP'er ONLY (PAs against) .400 Workman (94) .522 Walden (118) .573 Barnes (87) .669 Weber (35) .689 Brasier (93) .705 Hembree (102) Most of these were low leverage PAs against: .739 Velazquez (56) .747 Brewer (103) .851 Lakins (32) (Most from last night) .963 DHern (12) .972 Thornburg (86) 1.285 Johnson (30) 1.345 ERam (15) I've been saying all along, we could use a nice pen upgrade. I felt maybe waiting until the deadline might be the best idea, so we could take on more "pro-rated" salary, instead of a whole season's salary, and we'd flush out the other 6-7 RP'er out of the 15 or so trying to stick on the 25 man roster. I have not given up on Brasier, despite his drop in Ks and his performance last night. I still have hopes that Walden and Workman are for real, but hoping on Walden might be homerism. Right now, I'd use Barnes and Workman as my ninth inning or high leverage guys. Walden and Hembree as my main set-up guys. Velazquez as my long man, and Brasier as the mop up man trying to show he can be given more meaningful innings over time. We need to replace this whole Lakins/Brewer/Thornburg circus. Maybe Weber can move to the pen when Eovaldi returns, but I'd feel safer leaving him as AAA depth to the rotation and acquiring a solid RP'er via trade. I'd be willing to trade Dalbec and Johnson, if anybody wants him or maybe a decent farm arm. Maybe we could shed some salary by finding a taker for some of Nunez or Pearce's salaries, so we can add more pen salary through salary dump trades as we near the trade deadline. We still can win the division. I'm sure of it, but we are making it tougher by losing games like last night's.