moonslav59

What do I think vs what do I want are 2 different things. I want to reset. I think we will. Assuming that, JBJ goes. Leon may be back, if he takes $1M. We bring up Dalbec and maybe let Travis and Ockimey fight for a platoon role. Chatham fights for utility with Lin and Marco. Chavis is in the mix at 2B and 1B, but I'm not expecting him to get much better. (I hope I am surprised.) I like DHern's chances at improving. Maybe Houck or some other pitcher steps up, but I'm not optimistic on that front. I think we hold onto Price & Sale, at least in hopes that they raise their trade stock- at most to still be here when the rebuild is complete, if short enough. To me, the most likely big trade name is not Betts or Price, but JD. We can get more for him than Price, and he is not part of the plan for 2022-2023, maybe not even 2021, if he opts out. Keep Devers, Bogey and Betts. If the rebuild looks longer than one year, we need to consider trading Workman and players who will be FAs after 2021 (ERod- ouch =, that hurts me to say! and Barnes)

These dates might not be exactly accurate, but here is a list of Sox prospects by the years they dropped off soxprospects.com's top 20 rankings list: 2004: Lester Youkilis 2005: B Moss Shoppach 2006: Pedroia Delcarmen 2007: Lester 2008: Ellsbury Buchholz Lowrie Masterson D Murphy 2009: Bard 2010: Reddick 2011: Iggy Doubront 2012: Middlebrooks Ranaudo 2013: Barnes 2014: Betts Bogey JBJ Vazquez Workman Swihart 2015: ERod (traded for as a prospect) Johnson Marrero 2016: Devers 2017: Beni (Moncada) 2018: Travis Beeks 2019: Chavis 2020: DHern _____

Yes! Some clowns (or was it just one) wanted to trade him earlier this year! Our lowest paid starter. The team wins and wins and wins when he starts.

I kinda like the idea, but it really changes the game, probably too much for my liking. Some of those long battling ABs are classic.

I'm optimistic on DHern, but he still has to bring down the BBs. Chavis has a lot to prove, IMO. He had a great start to 2019, but really tailed off for several months. I like the big hits he got. I don't see the next Betts, Bogey, Devers or Moncada in our system. Role players are needed, but we'll need some serious help, if we're going to get back to the top quickly.

Any? Maybe "regret" is not the right word, and I've said over and over I'm glad we won the ring and it was worth it, but let's not sugar coat that those 3 division wins and the 2018 ring came with a price. The trades we made worked for what we wanted, but we gave up a good chunk of our future to have those wonderful 3 years. We gave up some very nice young talent. Some will never amount to much, but some very likely will. To me, it's certainly okay to look back on these deals now and a few years from now and wonder "what if?"

Nope. I stilllike the deal, but I'm very concerned.

It's just plain short-sighted to say, "Nobody we've traded has done well, yet, so the trades are all great." We traded prospects- some far away one- for vets. Nobody expected the tardes to be even after 2-3 years.

Really? Look deeper.

Exactly, and many of the players in my study had another 7 WAR season at a much older age than Betts will be in the next 2-3 years.

Good one.

Look at the NFL preseason, now. Nobody of value plays, and if they do, it's hardly ever.

Great post, but not all here were part of the "same crowd."

Actually, Johnson and Velazquez have shown some good stretches over their careers. Look, I have little faith in Johnson or Velazquez, in fact, I have close to zero faith in either of them, but I see Chacin in about the same way- maybe a little better. I'd bring all 3 back next spring along with others and see who may shine. Chances are none of these three will, but the more we bring back, the better chance we have that one or two turn out okay. Johnson looked very promising in 2018. That was not that long ago. Again, I have little hope in Brian, but that 2018 sample size is way bigger than Chacin's brief flash of goodness. Johnson had 13 starts, last year. We went 9-4 in his starts and he had a 4.15 ERA. Overall, he pitched just under 100 IP with a 4.17 ERA. (MLB: 4.84 ERA in 166 IP/ AAA: 3.21 ERA in 278 IP/AA 2.83 ERA in 124 IP) Velazquez had 8 starts in 2018. He also had 1 4.15 ERA as a SP'er, and we went 5-3 in his starts. Hector has already proven he can go 85 IP with a 3.18 ERA (2018). (MLB: 3.85 in 161 IP/ AAA- 2.34 ERA in 119 IP/ Mexican League 3.76 ERA in 687 IP) I don't expect him to do that in 2020, but I think we should bring him back. Chacin has a long history in MLB. He's been good and very good, at times. He has a 4.00 ERA from 2016-2018 with a 1.28 WHIP. Sure, there's hope. Sure, I'dlike to see him in the mix next spring. He's had longer stretches of success than Johnson and Velazquez, but he also has looked as bad as them both. He was at 5.79 with MIL, this year with a 1.52 WHIP in 89 IP. He's been over 4.80 in 3 of his last 6 seasons. He's been under 3.90 the other 3.

Your point emphasizes the fact that most of the players we traded have yet to reach their time. Nobody has said we'd have won in 2016, 2017 or 2018 had we kept all the kids. It was about not trading so many and being better positioned for 2020 and well beyond.

JBJ is my favorite player, but I have said numerous time, I would not pay what the estimated arb will be. My post was not in defense of bringing him back. It was about the over emphasis on BA. I came out against an idea a poster suggested that we extend him at $21M/3. I'd be against $10M/2, if that was enough to put us over the luxury tax in 2020. If we can keep him and reset, I'm all for keeping him. If we trade Betts or JD, I'd be interested in keeping JBJ, but not at near his likely arb number.

The whole DD philosophy was to build a 3-5 year window to win a ring(s). It looks like it lasted 3 years, but he got what the goal was all about: winning at least one ring. I'm glad we won, of this debate would be much more heated. I was fine with the overall plan, although I disagreed with some deals and the extent he raided the farm, but we won, and I'm happy. There's no guarantee we'd be looking at a ring(s) in the next 2-3 years had we not made the trades or even not made some of the trades. We may never know, if we'd have won in 2018 without this deal or that. Some are pretty clear, but others are not. The fact is, DD did trade away much of our future hopes for the here and now. Certainly our future would look better, now, had we not made some or all of the trades. Some player already are making a difference, while others look much more promising than the prospects and young players we have right now. Here's a look at where we MIGHT BE going forward had we not made any of DD's deals- granted this is not a reasonable supposition. SP: ERod, Price, Eovaldi, Allen, Beeks, Kopech, Espinoza, D Hern RP: Workman, Barnes, Buttrey, Hembree, Taylor, Walden, Anderson C: Vaz, Leon or Centeno 1B: Shaw, Chavis 2B: Moncada 3B: Devers SS: Bogey IF: Dubon, Marco, Asuaje, Lin, Dalbec, Chatham LF: Beni, Basabe CF: JBJ, Margot (maybe trade or non tender JBJ) RF: Betts DH: JD

Do we really think a better pitching coach would have gotten more out of the guys on that list? Can we blame Cora for choosing the wrong guy to start, when every one on the list sucked or ended up sucking when used? Would we be in the race or much closer, if we had German & Green, instead of Velazquez, Johnson, Cashner & Weber?

With all due respect, I think almost every player that makes the bigs looks good for short periods of time. If we happen to just watch for that short sample size, it's easy to get an inflated opinion on the guy. It's better to withhold definitive statements until sample sizes are large enough to have a better idea of the true nature of a given player's talent level. That does not mean we can't get our hopes up every time someone looks good for a couple games, but when those numbers are at odds with the player's minor league history, we should be more cautious with our enthusiasm. Chacin has looked pretty good, but let's see how he looks after a few more starts and IP'd.

They also had better starting depth, thanks to their better farm. I'm not sure it's Cora's fault these guys sucked: GS ERA as a SP'er SP Depth 8 6.95 Velazquez 7 5.09 Johnson 6 8.01 Cashner 3 7.94 Weber 2 0.00 Chacin 2 9.82 J Smith 1 9.00 DHern 2 0.00 Taylor & Lakins (3 IP total) (31 Starts by non top 5 starters) NYY (40 GS'd by non top 5 SP'ers) 24 4.28 German 13 4.15 Green 3 5.73 Loaisiga 3 24.00 Tarpley, Holder, Cortes (6 IP total)

Very true, but many have just made it to the bigs, so time will tell. Certainly some of these guys may end up no better than Shawaryn, but there was a time I viewed Beeks and Buttrey about the same as I do Shawary, Weber and Smith.

I don't get the fascination with BA. OBP and SLG are so much more telling- not that JBJ's OBP is all that great, but it is decent enough to support his fantastic defense. He also has decent power. While JBJ has only gone over .250 once (.267 in 2016) and came close once or twice (.249 and .245), he's had pretty good OBPs several times: .349 in 2016 .335 in 2015 .323 in 2017 .320 this year He doesn't ground into DPs very often (11 in his last 1040+ PAs). 2015 to 2019 numbers per 650 PAs .244 23 80 (40 2B+3B and 12 SB) .328 OBP .436 SLG .764 OPS

I went back and did a study of every player that had a 7+ WAR year, and most had another one or one very close to it.

Splits per 650 PAs vs RHPs .264 40 124 Moreland .332 32 118 Devers .318 30 104 Bogey .302 29 87 Betts .226 28 75 JBJ .261 26 104 Swihart .273 24 84 JD .266 23 98 Chavis .269 22 83 Vaz .271 17 70 Marco .214 14 29 Travis .270 12 63 Beni .193 12 57 Leon vs LHPs .397 75 155 JD .226 46 99 Chavis .267 35 120 Bogey .232 35 93 Travis .266 33 75 Vazquez .188 28 76 Leon .276 23 90 Devers .271 19 103 Beni .271 19 43 Betts .213 12 52 JBJ .100 0 108 Owings .244 0 56 Holt HRs at Home per 650 PAs 40 JD 36 Betts 35 Bogey 33 Moreland 29 Chavis 27 Devers 24 Leon 23 Travis 20 JBJ 19 Beni 19 Vaz Away 43 JD 39 Devers 35 Bogey 32 Chavis 30 Vaz 27 Moreland 25 Betts 23 JBJ 14 Marco & Travis 13 Beni 2nd Half 49 JD 43 Betts 41 Bogey 38 Devers 28 JBJ 24 Leon 23 Travis 19 Beni 18 Chavis 15 Vaz Late & Close 65 Marco 55 Moreland 36 Betts 33 Bogey 25 Chavis 23 Vaz 19 Devers 16 Holt 14 Beni 13 JBJ 13 JD

Not only Undefeated, but unscored upon! Also, an interesting factoid: IP since 2016 746 Sale 644 Kershaw Since 2017 520 Sale 495 Kershaw Since 2018 320 Kershaw 305 Sale