moonslav59

I'm not saying this is not the way it's done. I'm still not sure, although I trust cots. I will say, if SD and BOS were both paying a luxury tax (hypothetically), then it would seem like one team is getting off the hook of paying taxes. If both teams are paying half the traded player's salary, but one team pays more taxes, I'd say the other team is "getting off the hook."

Why would SD, who is paying half his contract, get off the hook ? - not that they pay lux tax, anyways. Maybe they take the percentage of the whole contract from day one that SD is paying us and apply that to the lux tax numbers.

If we pay $11M and SD pays $11M of Myers's salary this year, why do we get a bigger break on the lux tax line. It seems, to me, like the lux tax line would be split 50-50, too.

I just got rid of my flip phone, so I'm with you...

I don't think it works like that. I think, if SD pays half his salary, we are charged half his lux tax cost ($6.9M) not $3.8M.

Of course, I do, but we can still stay under by taking a little less cash. I want to build the farm, too, and it's a tight balance.

I said system, not park, mound and rubber.

My guess is $10M a year for 3 years.

If they gave us more prospects, I might demand less money.

Don't forget the heap of cash.

Yes, and for them to learn our system, especially Quantrill, who would likely be our 5th starter out of the gate.

Since the luxury tax number is so much lower than the actual money owed, I'm not sure the BTV break even point needs to be met. Maybe, we get Myers, $25M, Quantrill and Arias for some long shot prospect.

Is he trying to squeeze one more prospect out of SD?

Of course, but adding Chavis or Dalbec (one is likely blocked) for another prospect or two who fill positions of higher need (pitching) might make sense. I'm fine with sending just a nobody for Quantrill, Myers and a heap of cash.

Yes, it could be a nobody for just Myers, cash and Quantrill.

I'm curious about the rumor we get more than just Quantrill, but I guess it depends on who we give to SD. I'm thinking Chavis or Dalbec, so maybe it's someone else decent.

We're likely not done with off season moves, but I guess it's time for Part II. Here's the link to Part I: https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/19484-A-Realistic-View-at-2020-Part-I Wow, no Betts. No Price. No Luxury Tax. Our slim ring chances for 2020 took a big hit, but our extended outlook appears much brighter. Back to 2020: here's my take on the depth chart by position (Red are the likely 26 man roster players- some due to no options or rule 5 restrictions). SP: Sale, ERod, Eovaldi, Perez, Weber Johnson, Houck, Velazquez, Hart, Shawaryn, McGrath, Kent, Reyes, Ward RP: Workman, Barnes, Taylor, Walden, D Hernandez, Brasier, Hembree, Brice Brewer, Osich, (see SP'ers), Mazza, Springs, Hall, Poyner C: Vazquez, Plawecki, Lucroy, Centeno, Bandy, Wong, A Rei 1B: Moreland, Chavis, Dalbec, Ockimey, Longhi, Joseph 2B: (Pedroia IL), Peraza, Chavis, Lin, Arauz, Chatham, Marco, Downs 3B: Devers, Dalbec, Chavis, Lin, Marco, Witte SS: Bogaerts, Lin, Arauz, Chatham, Marco, de la Guerra, Downs LF: Benintendi, JD, Pillar, (Moreland/Chavis), Puello, Lin CF: JBJ, Pillar, Puello, Lin, Wilson, Duran, Castillo RF: Verdugo, Pillar, JD, Puello, Wilson, Duran, Castillo DH: Martinez, Dalbec, Chavis We need a lot to go right to be a top contender, but it could happen. More likely, we'll fight hard to make the wild card game and hope for a surprise. The Myers trade is on the horizon. Spring training games begin, soon. Spring is in the air. GO SOX!

Will do, but who loads all the pages?

It would be nice to have some more excitement this winter. Kind of a let down after all the Betts hoopla.

Thanks, I don't know why I keep doing that. I also keep typing Bllom not Bloom.

Yes, I was wrong on that point.

I see a 1.3 dWAR in 2019. I see a -1.2 UZR/150 and -1 DRS in 2019. To be fair, I usually use a 3 year sample size on these numbers, but JBJ is getting older. I expect better than 2019, this year but not 2018 numbers. Not $10M. (I'm thinking Bloom must think he's worth that, so who am I to say otherwise?)

The away OPS does not scare me, because he'd be playing half his games in Fenway, and .858 is one of our best away OPS. He also has speed on the bases and is a better defender than JBJ, especially in 2019 and the expected beyond. JBJ has declined, slightly on D, Betts seems to be getting better.

He may have been worth close to $6-8M on defense only, in his prime, but he's not worth $10M on defense, now. I think people short-change his offensive value. I'll be happy watching JBJ in CF, this year, especially, if the other choice was Beni, and since we are resetting, his $11M does not bother me. The only way his contract bothers me, is if it is preventing us from getting a fine pitcher. JBJ is still my favorite player with Devers on the rise.

...and that's the reason they use the average salary not seasonal. It's a reason I'd prefer offering Betts $416M/13 over $360M/10 The AVV is $32.0 vs $36.0