moonslav59

It may be more nuanced than that. Attendance declining can be offset by higher ticket and concession prices. Lower viewership does not seem to be translating to lower TV deals between teams and networks.

I have not seen any poster say we should trade ERod or Sale. The talk has been mostly about JBJ- the same guy many said should be benched or DFA'd most of last year. Second has been about Price and/or Eovaldi- the two guys who were hurt most of last year. Talk of trading Betts has been high (maybe second), but it's not like we'd hand him away for nothing. Last is JD. We aren't trading all 5 and likely will not trade 3, unless it's July and we're 10 back.

Because the owner decided he'd make 150 million, instead of $180M, this year. Plus, when he sells the team he makes a windfall profit that is ungodly.

We can hope, but what if we get what we want and then they decide to reset next year instead?

Would Sox fans tolerate a team without JBJ and Price but with Roark & Teheran? It's not a major overhaul.

Yes, 90% sure. I think we trade JBJ to get barely under and wait to the deadline. We may trade Price or Eovaldi and still try to compete in 2020. We might be better with Wil Myers and 2 dependable SP'ers we can sign with the savings. Re-setting may not mean giving up.

Who said salaries were going to go down? Yes, attendance is down. Yes, viewership is down. But, this game is still a massive cash cow to the owners. They could have paid these salaries over a decade ago and still made insane amounts of money.

Maybe, or just add a little cash, but the two trades I listed pretty much balance out the money- not to an even point, but to about the value Price and Eovaldi are worth in open market FA dollars. Price for Myers Price: Owed $96M/3 ($31M x 3 on luxury tax) Myers: Owed $68.5M/3 (JUST $13.83M x 3 on lux tax) Overall cost of Price to SD: $27M/3 or about $9M a year- just about right. The Sox save $27M/3, but more importantly, they save over $17M x 3 on Lux. Eovalid for Odor Eovaldi: Owed $51M/3 ($17M x 3 luxury tax) Odor: owed $34M/3 (Just $8.25M x 3 on lux tax) Overall cost of Eovaldi to TX: $17M/3 or $5.7M x 3- that's less than FA value. We could ask for a prospect with Odor. The Sox save $17M, but also save almost $9M x 3 on the lux tax. If we did both trades, we'd save about $26M a year for 3 years on the lux tax budget. If we also traded JBJ, we'd have about $30M to spend this winter. In theory, going by MLBTR projected contracts, we'd be able to fill these holes: 1B- filled with Myers (not great, but capable as a bridge to 2021.) 2B- filled with Odor (not great, but capable as a bridge to 2021.) Possible Free Agent Signings (~$30M to spend): SP: $9M x 2 Tanner Roark SP: $9M x 2 Julio Teheran or $8M x 2 Wade Miley SP/RP: $4M x 2 Josh Lindblom or $6M x 1 Rich Hill/Michael Wacha RP: $5M x 1 Pedro Strop or CF $3M x 3 Shogo Akiyama Yes, we lose the slim possibility that both Price and Eovaldi stay healthy and return to form, possibly giving us a real shot at a ring run, but the depth we can add by trading just 2 guys is near astounding.

Some of us have come up with suggestions we think will/could work. They may be pie-in-the-sky, but something similar might work. No plan is going to have us reset AND look to be highly competitive in 2020. The most likely plan will be to try and look somewhat competitive in 2020 to keep the fan base interested while looking towards making the team better positioned for 2021 and beyond. That won't be easy, but freeing up some money by trading Price (maybe for Myers) and or Eovaldi (maybe for Odour) might be the first steps need to open up more opportunities and choices for this winter and beyond.

He will get more than that. He will likely get more than $10M/1.

It's all about a reset or not. If we chose to reset, we can wait until July to decide on a few players. If we want to do something, this winter, I'd start by trading JBJ and Price and or Eovaldi. Take the money saved to fill some holes. Look for cheap bridge players, but maybe try to find a few gems in the rough, something Bloom is known for. Yes, that would mean signing a # 4 and a #5, something I said is not the way to build, but with limited budget issues, you do what you have to do. We might try to score 1-2 players that look to help beyond 2020, but the rest would likely be 1 year deals to bridge to 2021, when presumably, we can go back over the tax line. The cliff is here. Maybe it won't be as bad as a "cliff" sounds like, buy if we reset, I'm not counting on a contending team, so all my points about how to build a contender for next year are moot. Normally, I'm all for building up the rotation from the top, but that can't happen this winter unless we dump a hell of a lot of salary, first.

I'd take Roark or Teheran over Porcello, but they may be too high-priced as well.

If we don't reset, then anything goes. If resetting is a true goal, signing Porcello will have to have a ripple effect.

I'm the leader of the "Just say No to Rick" club.

One has to wonder why teams offering him a multi year deal wouldn't also offer a higher 1 year deal, if that's what Porcello is looking for.

Maybe they told Rick, we might make an offer, if we are able to dump price or Eovalid. I still would not spend over $10M on Porcello, even if we dumped both. I can see maybe a 1 year deal to bridge us to 2021, so Rick can eat 200 innings in 2020, but guys like Roark and Teheran are horses, too, and may cost less.

One major reason your farm got good was because you drafted lower than now, and you had a fire sale. That ain't happening anytime soon. Your farm will continue to decline each year, unless you get lucky. If you end up going over the max line at some point or having to make a summer trade, it will decline more quickly. If we reset and finish in the middle tier again, our farm should get better as yours gets worse. BTW, we were pretty damn goos at IFA signings before DD and that year we got suspended from signings.

It's not a winning strategy to sign 4-5 slot starters. We can't afford Porcello. I'd love to have him back, but we might not even be able to offer $3-4M, unless we deal away more than just JBJ.

Only Yankees can do that. Don't you know?

You crack me up.

Yes, nobody knows, but the odds are he'll start declining sooner rather than later.

So, Cole at $245M/7 at age 29. Price at $217M/7 at age 30. Let's compare the two at their time of signing: Price: coming off a league leading ERA of 2.45 (164 ERA+) in 220 IP. 2yrs prior: 33-17 2.88 (135 ERA+) in 469 IP (most in MLB) 1.08 WHIP 3 yrs prior: 43-25 3.01 (129 ERA+) in 655 IP and 1.08 WHIP 4 yrs: 63-30 2.90 (133) in 866 IP (1.09) 5 yrs: 75-43 3.02 (127) in 1091 IP (1.10) 6 yrs: 94-49 2.97 (130) in 1299 IP (1.11) Cole: coming off a league leading ERA 2.50 (185 ERA+) in 212 IP (0.90 WHIP) 2 yrs: 35-10 2.68 (164) in 413 IP (0.96) 3 yrs: 47-22 3.20 (136) in 616 IP (1.06) 4 yrs: 54-32 3.31 (130) in 732 iP (1.12) 5 yrs: 73-40 3.15 (134) in 940 IP (1.11) 6 yrs: 84-45 3.22 (129) in 1078 IP (1.13) Cole's got a big lead over Price in the most recent 2 year numbers, except IP, but the 4 prior years goes to Price: Prior 3-6 years combined: Price: 61-32 3.02 (127) in 831 IP (1.13) Cole: 49-35 3.55 (112) in 665 IP (1.23)

If it's near the $11M/1 offer MLBTR suggested, it's too much. $18M/2 is too much, as well.

Yes, the 3 year sample works better for you, but why not 2 or 4 or 5 years? We both cherry-picked, but teh fact is Price has proven he has value- certainly not anything near $32M value, but he has enough value that SD would want him, if the money part was balanced out. bWAR in reverse 2019>2018...: Price: 1.8, 4.4, 1.6, 3.0, 2.6, 3.6 Paxton: 2.2, 2.9, 3.6, 1.1, 0.7, 1.3 Last 3 years: Price 7.8 Paxton 8.7 4 rs Price 10.8 Paxton 9.8

My point was about value. Paxton, who you gushed over has done about the same as Price, who you act like Price is valueless. You claim he has to do something positive to be tradable. He's been Paxton for 2 years. I'm fully aware of the contract disparity, but I also know how much Myers is owed. He's owed $61M over the next 3 years. That's 2/3 of what Price makes and all that SD cares about- that and gaining a 2-3 WAR SP'er for about $10M a year. From our perspective, the luxury tax savings would be way more than $10-11M a year x 3. Myers's luxury tax hit is just $13.8M/yr. That means nothing to SD but a hell of a lot to us. We'd save over $17M a year on the lux tax. It's not unreasonable to think SD would pay Price $36M/3 (the difference between him and Myers) and we'd take Myers to fill our 1B hole while saving $17M x 3 years on the tax budget. It's a match made in heaven. (BTW, I also suggested we could kick in a little cash and still make out.)