moonslav59

Had we kept him, that price was sure to drop during these economic times, as it did with the Dodgers.

Are you saying that the "coffee boy" statement was the only juvenile statement made by those who are hyper critical of Ben? I see very little difference between the hypercritical Ben and hypercritical DD crowds, teams or whatever you want to call the groupings, in terms of juvelinility.

Like "the other side" refrains from "juvenile jabs" at the "coffee boy" and his supporters and occasional defenders.

That's what they said about Price, too. Small sample sizes have small meanings, Jacko. You know this to be true. (Not that I'm high on Happ- I'm not.)

Yes, but I liked the trade, and I felt it made more sense. I was just pointing out that we could have kept Mookie & reset.

Yeah, we'd have to dump Price or Eovaldi (or maybe JD), which wouldn't really affect our future going forward, as compared to as it is now. (Also, Pillar, Moreland + Peraza= $10M.)

Yeah, we'd have to dump Price or Eovaldi (or maybe JD).

His 2020 season was an arb year-his last. They had every right to keep him for 2020. (BTW, he did sign with the Dodgers before hitting free agency.) Of course, there was no guarantee he re-signs here, so that's why my "best case scenario" involved trading him, letting him reach free agency, then re-signing him.

Yes, that was part of the narrative, but it doesn't mean it was right. While it would have been difficult to reset and keep Betts, it was entirely possible. Would not having JBJ and Perez while keeping Betts have made much of a difference in 2020- the reset year? The real issue would have been going significantly over the line (after a reset) starting in 2021, assuming we tried to win in 2021. Yes, Ben's spending was less than 50% of the reason, but still a big chunk, we went over in 2018, but his influence fell sharply in 2019 and was a small part of 2020. I had held out hope that we might have been able to acquire Verdugo, Downs & Wong for Betts, dump half of Price's salary and STILL Re-sign Betts for 2021 and beyond. We could have afforded it after the reset, but we'd likely not have much left to spend on pitching, unless Henry agreed to go over the second tax line. We might have tried to dump Eovaldi and a a few lessers like Barnes or Vaz.

Ben was responsible for part of the budget issues that put us over the tax lines in 2018 and 2019, but again, we could have reset AND kept Betts.

We could have kept Betts and reset, so I'm still not sure why 2018 is so connected to 2020. I get the 3rd year stiffer penalties, so 2018 set that in motion. I agree, Ben's deals played a part in the budget mess of 2019 and 2020, but it wasn't as great as you seem to be saying it was.

We actually could have kept Betts and reset in 2020, even without dumping Price, JD or Eovaldi. (No JBJ and Perez.)

By the time Mookie was traded, HanRam was off the books for over a year & Pablito had just come off the books. Castillo didn't count against the tax and had just one year left. Pedey still remained for 2020 & 2021. Looking at the 2019 & 2020 budgets, the Ben influence was a small percent. 2019 Tax budget: 31 Price 22 JD 21 Porcello 17 Eovaldi 15 Sale 14 Pedey 12 Bogey 9 JBJ 7 Moreland 2020 pre-adjusted 26 Sale 22 JD 20 Bogey 17 Eovaldi 14 Pedey 11 JBJ 8 ERod 7 Perez 2018: HRam was on his last year: (Actual Dollars-not tax budget) 31 Price 24 JD 23 HRam 21 Porcello 18 Pablo 15 Pedey 13 Kimbrel 12 Sale 11 Betts 9 Pom 7 Bogey

I still can't figure out why Chatham is at 4.9.

They obviously work on projected performance and projected or known salary. When I look to suggest trades on that site, I look at trying to even out the value by giving away players I think are rated higher than I value them. I'm not saying the site is perfect.It is far from perfect, but I also think Chavis is duplicated value with Dalbec being better. (I have actually suggested some trades involving Dalbec and us keeping Chavis (maybe sign a Moreland type for dirt cheap).

Gettys whiffs more than both- way more than Chavis.

Not in the minors: K/PAs Gettys .312 Dalbec .298 Chavis .256 If you look at K/AB in the minors (which discounts the BB rate): Dalbec .350 Gettys .343 Chavis .283

I don't want to speak for notin: he does fine for himself, but I still value OBP as something a player can do besides K'ing or hitting tons of HRs. Minor league numbers: BA/OBP (PAs in minors) Gettys .260/.316 (2860) Chavis .257/.325 (1757 PAs) Dalbec .263/.362 (1609 PAs) All their BAs are pretty similar, but Dalbec's OBP blows the other two away. He does do more than just K and HR. Also, look at the SLG % and K rates: (Gettys' K rate is higher and Slugging lower than both.) SLG%/K% (K/PA) Gettys .429/.312 Chavis .471/.256 Dalbec .505/.298

He can't field well. He does not get on base enough to offset his high K rate. If you look around MLB, today, high power players with little elese to offer are being DFA'd left and right: see Renfroe and Nunez. Chavis does have the plus of being able to play 3B, 1B and 2B. I was also looking at the context of the Trade Values site's rating of other Sox player, I feel are much better than the 7.5 score he gets (and Chatham's 4.9, too). 8.5 Jimenez 7.5 Chavis 6.3 Potts (I would not take 2 Chavises for one Potts) 6.3 Yorke (who knows this kids value?) 6.0 Jordan (same) 6.0 Lugo 5.6 Houck (I wouldn't take 10 Chavises for Houck.) 5.5 Beni 4.9 Chatham 4.5 Ward (I'd put him above both CH's) 4.3 Wong 3.8 Song 3.7 Groome 3.6 Arroyo (will start ahead of Chavis) 3.6 Brasier (still pre-arb) 3.3 Rosario (I like this kid way more than both CH's) 3.0 Murphy 2.6 Decker Selected others I value higher than both CH's: 2.4 Pivetta 2.1 Arauz 1.6 Taylor Maybe even... 1.0 Wallace 0.8 Seabold 0.6 Ramirez 0.0 Munoz

You are forgetting one major asset Dalbec has that can override the low contact rate- something Chavis has never had: Dalbec gets on base! Dalbec OBP .359 in a very small ML sample size of 92 PAs and .263 BA .362 in the minors (1609 PAs) .261 BA (slightly better than Chavis) Chavis OBP .304 in MLB (540 PAs- barley a full season).241 BA career .325 in the minors (1757 PAs) .257 BA The 37-55 point differential in OBP, if it continues, makes Dalbec a full time starter in MLB and Chavis a platoon utility IF'er. BTW, Chatham's numbers: .298 BA/.337 OBP in 1106 PAs in the minors (14 HRs and .402 SLG) I agree that Chatham is better than Chavis, but neither look all that great, to me. Dalbec is certainly a question mark. Good to great OBP in the minors does not always translate to MLB- just look at the Garin Cecchini example. That being said, I'm betting on Dalbec to be a keeper. The other two could be traded, and I'd never look back.

Chavis is way over rated on that site. That's why he and Chatham are in just about every trade I suggest, there.

Except for the HRs. Just what we need: another Chavis.

Yes, and if we trade Dalbec, we'd keep Chavis or maybe sign someone like Moreland. I'm curious if any GMs want Chavis enough to give us anything of value.

Over the monster... Bryan Mata, RHP Strengths: Mata has been one of the more intriguing arms in the system for a few years now, quickly bursting on the scene despite receiving a paltry $25,000 signing bonus out of Venezuela in 2016. He’s done very little but perform at each stop along the way, however, and made his way up to Double-A as a 20-year-old in 2019. It’s Mata’s stuff that jumps off the page, as he comes equipped with a fastball that can get up to the high 90s and sits in the mid 90s, along with a couple of solid breaking balls and a changeup that has flashed some potential. That hasn’t always resulted in big strikeout totals, though he did get his rate over a K per inning in 2019. Weaknesses: While the stuff is certainly intriguing for Mata, as is the quick trajectory through the system, there are still some concerns. Chief among them would be his command, which has been inconsistent throughout his career. He’s been able to make up for that at the lower levels, but that becomes harder as he faces more advanced hitters. Especially as he’s gotten bigger and added that velocity, he’s had a harder time consistently commanding his pitches. Along with that, consistency with his delivery has been an issue that’s contributed to both the command issues as well as some injury issues throughout his career. All of that has combined to provide some pause that his ultimate future will be as a starter. Path to the majors: Mata will turn 22 next May, so he still has time to develop. However, despite a 5.03 ERA over 11 starts in Portland in 2019, Sox Prospects still has him projected for Triple-A Worcester in 2021. That makes sense after he spent all of last summer at the Alternate Site and was mostly impressive there. Assuming he does start in Worcester, that puts a 2021 debut on the table, though that would have to come with a strong performance in the minors. My guess is he’ll get a shot towards the end of the year, but it’s no guarantee. Either way, I’d predict his first chance to make a real impact will come in 2022. Jay Groome, LHP Strengths: Groome is, to me, the most interesting player on this list as a former top prospect — at one point leading up to his draft year he was discussed as a potential 1-1 pick — who just hasn’t been able to stay healthy. He still flashes that potential, though, and he did so fairly consistently at the Alternate Site this summer. And while there are certainly concerns we’ll get to in a bit, Groome’s ceiling is still arguably as high as anyone in the system thanks to a potential for two plus pitches in his fastball and curveball to go with a solid changeup as well. Weaknesses: Unfortunately, we haven’t been able to see that potential much at all, and a loss of development time is really the big weakness here. After being drafted in 2016, he has made only 20 starts as a professional and has made all of 11 as high as Greenville. And so now he is stuck in this weird place where he shouldn’t be rushed as the potential is too great, but also he is burning options on the 40-man. But for right now, he’s still only 22 and won’t turn 23 until the end of the 2021 minor-league system. He just needs to prove he can get through a season healthy, and we’ll worry about the rest once we cross that bridge. Path to the majors: As I said, Groome is in a bit of a weird spot given his experience level. Sox Prospects has him projected for Salem, which makes sense, and I’d guess the hope is they’d be able to get him up to Portland for at least the last month or so of the season. They won’t rush him, but if things go well that’ll be ideal. The best-case scenario is likely a late-2022 debut, though 2023 is probably more likely.

Over the monster... Hudson Potts, INF Strengths: Potts came over from the Padres along with Rosario in that Moreland trade, and spent the summer at the Alternate Sites for San Diego as well as Boston. And as far as strengths go, Potts resembles a lot of other recent position players who have entered this system in that he is a big power bat. That is his carrying tool, and that is what will likely provide him a role in the majors, whatever that role may end up being. It’s plus and he can hit for power to all fields. Weaknesses: As is the case for a whole lot of power hitting prospects, however, Potts does not exactly have a refined hit tool. Since reaching full-season ball in 2017, he has carried a strikeout rate of at least 25 percent every stop along the way, striking out nearly 29 percent of the time in 2019 at Double-A. Power is great, but the extent to which you can tap into it depends largely on how often you can make contact, and that’s something Potts does need to work on. Defensively, Potts doesn’t provide a ton of value though you should be able to plug him in at third or second and be fine with it. Path to the majors: I was a little surprised to see Sox Prospects peg Potts for a Double-A job in 2021, though the glut of infielders at Triple-A does explain that a bit. Potts spent all of 2019 at Double-A and the tail-end of 2018 there as well, but struggled to get going in both of those stints. If he does start in Portland, the goal would presumably be to get him to Worcester at some point next summer with an eye on a 2022 debut. Connor Wong, C/INF Strengths: I feel like I can just copy and paste the Potts section in here, as Wong is a similar type of player. He probably doesn’t have quite the power potential that Potts possesses, but Wong certainly has above-average raw power. I would also add his interesting defensive profile here. Wong is primarily a catcher, but he’s shown an ability to play at second and third as well. That’s not a super common skillset, and it opens up a lot of different possibilities with your roster if you’re able to carry a catcher who can also fill in around the diamond, whether that means carrying three catchers or perhaps an offensive-minded bat for the bench. Weaknesses: Again, just like Potts, Wong combines the big power with a big inability to make contact, and as I said before it’s hard to tap into that power if you’re not first making contact with the baseball. Back in 2019, when he was with the Dodgers before coming over in the Mookie Betts deal, he struck out over 30 percent of the time at both High-A and Double-A. He also doesn’t project as a great defensive catcher, though he should be good enough there to stick. Path to the majors: Sox Prospects projects him to start 2021 at Double-A, and as was the case with Rosario I think that has as much to do with Wong as it does the guy in front of him, in this case Deivy Grullón. What’s best for Wong at this point is consistent at bats and consistent time behind the plate. He won’t get that at Triple-A to start next season. Look for him to make his debut in 2022, though injuries ahead of him on the depth chart could certainly speed up that timeline. Eduard Bazardo Strengths: Bazardo was the biggest surprise to be added, though Cundall’s aforementioned reports from Instructs did kind of telegraph this move. According to that report, Bazardo upped the velocity on his fastball to get into the 93-97 range, which is up a few ticks from when we last saw him in 2019. To go with that fastball Bazardo has a really good curveball that works as his best pitch. As we’ve seen in recent years, the Red Sox love their fastball/curveball relievers. Weaknesses: For all of the improvement he apparently made over the summer while working out on his own, Bazardo still doesn’t quite have that kind of back-end potential, with his ceiling at this point likely being something like the third best reliever in a good bullpen. Even with the improved fastball, it’s still not quite the elite level heat you see from the best relievers. Additionally, Bazardo has a bit of a small frame so it may not be possible to lean on him as heavily as would be ideal for a top relief option. Path to the majors: While Bazardo has the lowest ceiling on this list, he’s also on track to be the first in the majors. Depending on what they do in the bullpen this winter, I don’t think it’s ridiculous to think of a scenario where he is pushing for a spot out of camp, though more likely is that he gets his chance in the middle of next season.