moonslav59

I'm not fully against signing Puig, but his contract will limit what we can pick up at the deadline.

We could trade Chavis or Dalbec and a picther for a better pitcher. I'm not talking blockbuster. I'm talking about slowly building up the pitching staff with decent pitchers who have 2+ years of team control. Maybe trade Workman, Barnes or Hembree (Moreland?) to a contender for a pitching prospect. If Eovaldi is doing well, we could trade him for younger pitching.

Our offense is way better than our pitching. We will lose way more games because of our starters and our pen than lack of hitting. Yes, we could improve a few slots on offense, but we have massive holes (yes plural) in our rotation and pen. Rotation: With Sale and Eovaldi's health histories or recent troubles, we could be looking at 2-3 slots to fill, and I'm not just talking 2020. I'm thinking we need to look at finding a way to get a decent SP'er under team control beyond 2020 and hopefull beyond 2021 as well. I realize that is not as easy as picking up a decent 2Bman, but we did just acquire Downs,so I don't see 2B as a bigger need than SP'er- not even close. Pen: We have seen our pen over achieve the last few year than what was expected on paper. I've been a huge Workman fan, but I'm not sure he's going to do as well as 2019. Barnes declines, last year, for the first time in his career. Hembree has health issues. Walden seems to be pulling decency out of his ass, but maybe he'll continue doing well. Taylor looked very good last year, but are we really going to count on a repeat? DHern has enormous potential, but needs time to harness it. I don't think anyone counts on our pen as being top 10 or even top 15 in MLB. Other "weak links" in non pitching areas? Here's how I rank them: 1. 2B Pedey is toast- scratch him off even the miracle list. We do have a lot of options here. Granted, none look great, but a few show promise and we now have Downs for the long term future. (Pedey) Chavis Peraza Lin Arauz Marco Chatham Downs 2. Catcher: I don't see this as an area of big need.I am worried about Vaz's inconsistency at the plate and how almost every SP'er, except ERod does much worse with him than they did with Leon, but I seriously doubt we are even looking to use valuable resources to upgrade here. Vaz Plawecki Lucroy Centeno Wong CF/OF: Our OF depth is weak- no doubt, and with Verdugo's health an issue, and the need to keep JD at DH as much as possible, I can see wanting to sign Puig, but I'd rather save the money for a deadline trade for a pitcher under team control for 2+ years. Benintendi Verdugo JBJ Pillar (JD Martinez- DH) Puello Lin Moreland (emergency) Duran Jimenez Castillo (lux budget issue) Longhi Andreoli Sturgeon 1B: We can find serviceable 1Bmen for a dime a dozen, especially at the deadline. Moreland Chavis Dalbec Ockimey (could be a decent platoon) Witte Casas (far away) We are not upgrading SS or 3B.

Pitching Leaders in ST'ing WHIP (IP) 0.53 Brice 5.2 0.63 Eovaldi 8.0 0.67 Velazquez 3.0 0.86 ERod 7.0 0.88 Brewer 5.2 0.95 Johnson 6.1 1.00 Brasier 3.0 1.00 Weber 5.0 1.13 Walden 2.2 1.25 Reyes 4.0/ Taylor 4.0 1.50 Osich 4.2/Workman 2.2 Other notables: 1.67 Mata 3.0 1.71 Barnes 2.2/Shawaryn 2.1 2.00 D Hern 1.0 2.05 Houck 6.1 2.63 Hembree 2.2/M Peres 2.2 3.00 Poyner 2.0 3.33 Mazza3.1

Sox Leaders in ST'ing OPS (ABs) 1.362 Wong (10) 1.286 Castillo (21) 1.186 JBJ (22) 1.132 Plawecki (14) 1.121 Moreland (9) 1.077 Devers (13) 1.018 JD (20) .988 Duran (19) .945 Beni (15) .944 Lin (17) .905 Ockimey (21) .818 Chavis (20) Other notables: .775 Dalbec (22) .757 Pillar (22) .721 Wilson (19) .701 Arauz (21) Rule 5 .571 Peraza (21) .540 Downs (17) .435 Vaz (15) .349 Chatham (14) .209 Marco (17) .000 Bogey (7)

My point was about wanting to improve pitching- maybe not just for 2020 but beyond, even when pitching isn't a weakness. Pitching is a big weakness right now, so it should be our primary priority. That's not to say that if a deal falls in our lap that improves a non pitching area, we shouldn't do it, but with such limited financial and prospects available to upgrade any area, the focus needs to be, IMO, on pitching ONLY.

I've always been from the school of wanting to improve pitching, even if it's not a weak link. It is, now.

If your weakness is pitching, I think it's counterproductive to use your last available resources on hitting.

When a lot of small to moderate sample sizes all point the same direction, it is significant. The Price sample sizes are both pretty large: 204 IP to 360 IP. Porcello's 576 to 211 is, too. I admit the Buccholz (both over 130 IP) is not really that much, and Vaz's innings with Sale (84) is small, but when you combine it with Pom and Wright, and they all show very significant differentials all heavily in the same direction, there is true meaning to the numbers. ERod is the only one with pretty much no difference but with Vaz having a slightly better CERA.

Nobody had magic, last year. However, some had less magic than others: Porcello 4.44/.709 Leon 93 IP (Close to his career 4.36 ERA) 6.37/.885 Vaz 76 IP 13.50/1.338 Swihart 5 IP Sale 3.79/.622 Leon 116 IP (Not bad) 6.68/.956 Vaz 31 IP ERod & Price pretty much only threw to Vaz. Leon and Swihart had less than 10 IP with each. Vaz did much better with both. I'm not sad to see Leon go, and my post wasn't meant to be about him. It was in response to the post about Vaz "calling a good game." I don't see it.

Some are not small, and lots of small ones combined make a significant sample size for both catchers.

No mockery from me. Sandy was an overall plus for this team.

If you believe the CERA numbers mean anything, these differentials are shocking: Sale 1.82 better CERA with Leon .188 better OPS against How much does 2 more runs per 9 IP hurt his value? (note: 84 IP is kinda small.) Price 1.31 better CERA with Leon .091 better OPS against How much is a run and a half hurt? (Both have fair sample sizes). Porcello 0.77 better CERA with Leon .066 better OPS against (Both had 200+ IP with Rick.) Buchholz 1.43 better CERA with Leon .059 better OPS against ERod is the only pitcher Vaz did better with on CERA, but his OPS against was worse than Leon & Swihart! There is not SP'er with significant IP'd with 2or more Sox catchers where Vaz has a better CERA and OPS against with. Leon has a better CERA and OPS against vs Vaz with 4 out of 5 (splits the 5th) Swihart splits in CERA and OPS against vs Vaz with the 2 starters they both qualified with (74+ IP)

I don't disagree, but we need a good young catcher- maybe before trading him. Wong projects to be a catcher or maybe 1B/LF with the ability to be a team's emergency 3rd catcher. Vaz may do well framing pitches, but he has a very weak record getting the best out of the team's best SP'ers. That is worrisome, and it decreases his value more than many may think it does. While CERA is a flawed stat, it is useful in comparing catchers on the same team through the same time periods. The IP with each catcher, on the Sox however, are often too far apart to really judge well. Here are some eye-opening numbers: ERA/OPS against -Pitcher- career IP (all catchers listed with 74+ IP) Sale with each catcher: 2.51/.622 AJ Pierzynski 226 2.79/.575 Sandy Leon 436 2.98/.632 D Navarro 97 3.02/.616 T Flowers 552 3.36/.725 J Phegley 88 3.53/.680 Alex Avila 112 4.61/.763 C Vazquez 84 (While his IP are lower, his numbers are frightenly bad, here. It's no wonder Leon was Sale's binky.) Price 2.30/.555 R Martin 74 2.67/.599 A Avila 111 2.78/.691 J McCann 107 2.85/.634 J Molina 473 2.96/.647 S Leon 204 3.06/.616 J Jaso 191 3.09/.661 Navarro 128 3.61/.705 Schoppach 162 4.27/.738 Vazquez 360 (Some of the catchers above Vaz are not known for defense or handling pitchers well.) Porcello 4.17/.735 Avila 578 4.19/.728 Leon 576 4.32/296 Laird 296 4.93/.800 Swihart 122 4.96/.794 Vazquez 211 5.38/.831 Holaday 82 (Notice how the best CERAs relate to the most IP almost exactly, here. Even Swihart did slightly better than Vaz!) Rodriguez 3.98/.711 Vazquez 456 4.05/.700 Leon 118 4.44/.692 Swihart 75 (Both Swihart and Leon got better OPS against than Vaz. It doesn't look like ERod cares who his catcher is.) Buchholz 2.83/.642 VMart 241 3.01/.646 Leon 155 3.23/.622 Shoppach 78 3.95/.737 Salty 207 4.44/.705 Vazquez 130 5.12/.801 VTek 118 Wright 2.94/.611 Hanigan 95 3.49/.700 Vazquez 101 Pomeranz 1.99/.542 Norris 3.92/.745 Vazquez 198 To be fair, Vaz did do slightly better (Barnes) and even much better (Kelly & Workman)with certain RP'ers. He did much worse with Hembree, but the sample sizes are pretty small for some catchers with each RP'er.

He "calls"a crappy game. His CERA sucks vs Leon's. His bat has been great (for a catcher) and s***** from year to year. (I would love to see us trade Chavis for Campusano, Myers and $30M.)

He's been between a 9 and 10 for 15 years. Our team looked really good, on paper, last year. This is the first year we look to have such a slim chance, but even then, we are not far from being a playoff team. I'm more than fine with Henry's record, and we all knew (or should have known) we went all out to set up a window from about 2017-2019 or 2020. The window closed sooner than expected. I won't blame injuries, because the Yanks had more than we did in 2019. Yes, we look pretty bad, right now, but we are resetting, and I fully expect us to go over the lux tax in 2021. This should help us be pretty close to a pretty competitive team. I think the Bloom hiring was an excellent one, especially when look at the difficult task at hand. Our farm is actually better than I thought it would be after we got dinged from int'l FA signings a few years back and had very bad draft picks and signing bonus money the last 2-3 years. I'm thinking 2020 will still be fun to watch, but I do think we might stink up the place, and it could be painful. No matter how 2020 goes, I like our chances in 2021 (assuming spending $5-19M over the tax line). We lose Pedey after 2021. We may get a nice draft pick 2 years in a row, if we don't get draft penalties for cheating. I can't assign a 1-10 score going forward, but the point was about Henry's choice-making. I think Bloom was an excellent choice and just what we needed after a GM like DD. BTW, I haven't seen any analytical geek rankings anywhere. I don't see the Cubs or Diamondbacks as having a better outlook than us.

True, but I was thinking more about long stretches of looking good- like in 2017 and 2018. He pitched very little in MLB in 2017, but after his first game on May 18th, he went 3-0 0.92 in 19.2 IP (.483 OPS against) 15K & 5 BB 2018 was up and down. He started out 3-0 1.82 in his first 34.2 IP (decent sample size, especially if you add it to his last 19.2 IP from 2017.) A .735 OPS against is not all that great, so maybe he had some luck, but still.He looked promising on June 20th of 2018. In his next 14 IP, he went 1-0 5.14 (8.29 OPS against). It then got more choppy: 4 games 0 ER in 6.1 IP 9 games 5.48 ERA in 21.1 IP Last 7 games, 2.08 ERA in 8.2 IP (6.10 OPS against) 2019 showed no signs of the 2017-2018 Velazquez. His minor league numbers: 2016: 15-4 2.33 in 38 GS'd (228 IP counting fall league) 2017: 8-4 2.21 in AAA (102 IP)/ 1.86 ERS in 9.2 IP in Mexican league. 2018: only 1 IP.

Maybe we are or have tried hard to lock Devers up. Vaz has 2 years of control left to go. He's been up and down almost exactly from year to year. I don't see any hurry with him.

I don't think it's all that complicated. Every major move he has made had valid reasoning behind them, whether we agree or not.

Velazquez at least looked good at times.

I wonder why Jacko didn't start this thread.

My first "man crush" was on Tommy Harper, while I lived just blcoks from County Stadium in Milwaukee. He was one of the first 30-30 players in MLB. When they traded him to Boston near the time we moved to Maine, I switched to being a Sox fan. (It's all his fault!) I loved Tiant, Lee, Burleson and Lynn. I was a big Cha Cha Cepeda, Oil Can Boyd, Burks and Evans fan early on, too. Tom Gordon, Greg Harris, Rich "El Guapo" Garces, Alex Gonzalez, Pedro, VTek, Mueller, Nava, Uehara Most recently, JBJ & Leon and of course, Devers.

I like Velazquez more than several players on the 40 man roster, now, but I'm not pretending to know more than the Sox brass. He still has options left, so I prefer him over Brice & Lin. I also like him more than Shawaryn and Weber, who both have multiple options remaining. I don't know enough about Phillips Valdez, Chris Mazza and Matt Hallto make a choice. I'm not complaining with this post- just mildly surprised by the choice of HV. Maybe they think he has the least chance of being picked up- due to his age, and he'll accept a minor league deal once he clears waivers.

Right after 2018. If they wait until June or July, it will be 18+ months from October/November 2018. If they wait until winter, it's 24+ months.

I like the signing way more than Buch.